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Discussion thread II - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...us-hong-kong-shows-symptoms-of-a-failed-state

op-ed:

Hong Kong Is Showing Symptoms of a Failed State
With empty supermarket shelves and rising public distrust, the coronavirus-hit city is ticking most of the boxes.
By Clara Ferreira Marques
February 8, 2020, 7:00 PM EST

Grocery runs in Asia’s financial powerhouse have begun to remind me of shopping in Russia in the chaotic summer of 1998. You grab what you can find, and if there is a queue, you consider joining it. Surgical masks and sanitizer gel are bartered for; detergent shelves are bare. A run on toilet paper last week, after an online rumor, was reminiscent of Venezuela.

Crowds are irrational everywhere, and social media hardly helps. Yet the palpable anxiety in coronavirus-hit Hong Kong these days suggests worrying levels of distrust in a city where citizens have always expected private enterprise at least, if not the state, to keep things ticking over. Both have failed miserably, preparing inadequately even after the SARS outbreak that killed almost 300 people in the city in 2003...
 
Hubei ex Wuhan,1027,1070,1103,1189,1221,946,856,768,697
China ex Hubei,678,722,890,728,707,696,558,509,444
daily new cases Feb01-Feb09

cases in Wuhan are up and down, they somehow seem to report in chunks
894,1033,1242,1967,1766,1501,1985,1379,1921

stable at 1500-2000 per day since 6 days

considering the CFR, there may be 2-3 times more cases in Wuhan
than reported
 
http://www.mychinanews.com/news/n/1/2415029
On February 8, a reporter from the Beijing News learned from the School of Life Science and Technology of Huazhong University of Science and Technology that Professor Hong Ling, 53, of the hospital died on the evening of the 7th due to the ineffective treatment of New Crown Pneumonia. Colleagues said that Hongling noticed discomfort around January 25, but the virus was incubating for about 10 days, and the disease did not occur until February 4. At present, the college's internal group has issued obituaries. Prior to this, the college has notified contacts to isolate and observe. Public information shows that Hong Ling was born in November 1966, and is the National Coordinator and Legal Representative, PhD Supervisor, and Chu Tian Scholar of China Rare Disease Research Alliance.
Click to expand...
 
(Original title: Professor Huake Hongling died of new crown pneumonia Colleague: He only became ill 4 days ago)
 
https://www.msn.com/zh-tw/news/world/潛伏期不只14天？首例居家隔離後「無症狀16天」竟確診/ar-BBZPr4I
"Reporter Chen Yingting / Comprehensive Report

If you have suspected contacts, you also need to be quarantined for 14 days. You can ensure no infection after the incubation period, but yesterday (9 Late at night, the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University reported that a doctor was diagnosed after being asymptomatic for "16 consecutive days". The news also shocked the world." ...snip
 
https://www.setn.com/News.aspx?NewsID=686531&utm_source=msn.com&utm_medium=msn&utm_campaign=msnnews

Worker did not realise he was infected and "Yanta District Pneumonia Prevention and Control Headquarters Office also said that the confirmed person did not know he was infected even before recurrence, and even went to work at a fast food restaurant for nine consecutive days, working about 12 hours a day, from 10 am to night At 10 o’clock"

I have even seen BBC journalists who are reporting from cities in lockdown order and receive takeaway food. They showed that the receipt stated temperature of the chef, temperature of the packer and temperature of the delivery driver. As not all people who are infected have a temperature - this would seem to be of little use.

I have also noted that journalists in the UK are advocating the theory that the infections in France of UK nationals are the responsibility of a "super spreader". I do not know their motivation for this but to dismiss the outbreak as being largely attributable to "super spreaders" rather than discussing the fact that this outbreak appears to spread incredibly fast is not accurate.
https://news.sky.com/story/british-man-feared-to-be-coronavirus-super-spreader-11930523
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10913096/coronavirus-uk-live-updates/
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/four-more-brits-infected-by-coronavirus-super-spre/
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/hunt-passengers-same-easyjet-flight-21466731
etc.... All using the phrase super spreader
 
...
Professor Peter Piot, director of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said the outbreak is likely to become a pandemic, adding he was becoming “increasingly alarmed” about the rate of infection. Professor Piot, who co-discovered ebola and the presence of Aids in Africa, warned that coronavirus is more dangerous than ebola.

“It’s a greater threat because of the mode of transmission. The potential for spread is much, much higher”.

“If the number of people who get infected is huge, then that will also kill a very large number of people.”
...
https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020...-coronavirus-as-disease-spreads-expert-warns/
 
I'm still looking for articles on nCov and prisons, orphanages, rehab centers etc. So far as I can tell, there has been no coverage. Out of sight, out of mind?
 
I've noticed that the numbers from China seem to cover odd time periods lately. Some might be from 9 am to midnight. Others might be from midnight to 8 pm. It is good to see some lower numbers of cases being reported but it would be nicer if we were always looking at 24 hour periods for a more direct comparison.
 
Just looking at the latest numbers from Hubei province and trying to summarize to get a sense as to what is going on there. I have heard that the average case takes 2 weeks to result in death but that less severe cases might be discharged quicker. Anyway, 14 days ago on January 28 there were 3554 confirmed cases in Hubei and we have 3196 cases that have resolved in discharge or death today plus some unknowns. We still have 30% of the resolved cases resulting in death out of the cases that are being tested, which by all reports, are the people that have more than just mild symptoms in Hubei.

I parsed through the 31,728 total cases to date Hubei:

2222 discharged
3445 waiting to be admitted/unknown status
18,743 hospitalized in good/fair conditions
5046 hospitalized in serious condition
1298 hospitalized in critical condition
974 dead
 
My thanks to a friend of FT:

Uyghurs and the China Coronavirus
An epidemic and crowded mass detention camps are a potentially deadly combination.
By Munawwar Abdulla
February 05, 2020
Uyghurs and the China Coronavirus
Credit: 新疆司法行政

The World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak a global public health emergency on January 30. The Chinese government initially heavily obscured the severity of outbreak in the early days, leading to inadequate initial handling and the spread of the virus to other parts of the world. The outbreak that began in Wuhan is now a matter of global concern, with more than 24,000 confirmed total cases in 27 countries and at least 494 deaths...

Read more: https://thediplomat.com/2020/02/uyghurs-and-the-china-coronavirus/
 
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