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February 10, 2025
DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(25)00079-9
Luo Chena,b ∙ Yu Kakua ∙ Kaho Okumuraa,c ∙ Keiya Uriua ∙ Yukun Zhuaon behalf of the The Genotype to Phenotype Japan (G2P-Japan) Consortium∙ Jumpei Itoa,d,f ∙ Kei Satoa,b,d,e,f,g,h,i
After the rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 JN.1 (BA.2.86.1.1) variant,1several descendant lineages of JN.1, including KP.2 (JN.1.11.1.2),2 KP.3 (JN.1.11.1.3),2 and KP.3.1.1 (JN.1.11.1.3.1.1),3 have emerged and rapidly spread globally. Subsequently, XEC has become prevalent and currently accounts for nearly half of all infections, as of January, 2025.4 Thereafter, LP.8.1 (JN.1.11.1.1.1.3.8.1), a descendant lineage of KP.1.1.3 (JN.11.1.1.1.3), is starting to spread worldwide. LP.8.1 has acquired nine spike protein mutations compared with JN.1, and eight amino acid residues differ between the spike proteins of LP.8.1 and XEC (appendix p 18). Here, we estimate the relative effective reproduction number (Re) of LP.8.1 with a Bayesian multinomial logistic model1–4 based on genome surveillance data from Canada, the USA, Japan, and Australia, where this variant has spread, as of December, 2024 (appendix p 18). Although the Re of LP.8.1 is 1·067-fold higher than that of XEC in the USA, the difference between the Re of LP.8.1 and XEC was relatively small in Japan (1·019-fold; appendix p 18). ...
DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(25)00079-9
Luo Chena,b ∙ Yu Kakua ∙ Kaho Okumuraa,c ∙ Keiya Uriua ∙ Yukun Zhuaon behalf of the The Genotype to Phenotype Japan (G2P-Japan) Consortium∙ Jumpei Itoa,d,f ∙ Kei Satoa,b,d,e,f,g,h,i
After the rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 JN.1 (BA.2.86.1.1) variant,1several descendant lineages of JN.1, including KP.2 (JN.1.11.1.2),2 KP.3 (JN.1.11.1.3),2 and KP.3.1.1 (JN.1.11.1.3.1.1),3 have emerged and rapidly spread globally. Subsequently, XEC has become prevalent and currently accounts for nearly half of all infections, as of January, 2025.4 Thereafter, LP.8.1 (JN.1.11.1.1.1.3.8.1), a descendant lineage of KP.1.1.3 (JN.11.1.1.1.3), is starting to spread worldwide. LP.8.1 has acquired nine spike protein mutations compared with JN.1, and eight amino acid residues differ between the spike proteins of LP.8.1 and XEC (appendix p 18). Here, we estimate the relative effective reproduction number (Re) of LP.8.1 with a Bayesian multinomial logistic model1–4 based on genome surveillance data from Canada, the USA, Japan, and Australia, where this variant has spread, as of December, 2024 (appendix p 18). Although the Re of LP.8.1 is 1·067-fold higher than that of XEC in the USA, the difference between the Re of LP.8.1 and XEC was relatively small in Japan (1·019-fold; appendix p 18). ...