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Am J Epidemiol. 2017 Jun 9. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwx217. [Epub ahead of print]
Application of an Individual-Based Transmission Hazard Model for Estimation of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in a Household Cohort.
Petrie JG, Eisenberg MC, Ng S, Malosh RE, Han Lee K, Ohmit SE, Monto AS.
Abstract
Household cohort studies are an important design for the study of respiratory virus transmission. Inferences from these studies can be improved through the use of mechanistic models to account for household structure and risk as an alternative to traditional regression models. We adapted a previously described individual-based transmission hazard (TH) model and assessed its utility for analyzing data from a household cohort maintained in part for study of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). Households with ≥4 individuals, including ≥2 children < 18 years, were enrolled and followed during the 2010-2011 influenza season. VE was estimated in both TH and Cox Proportional Hazards (PH) models. For each individual, TH models estimated hazards of infection from the community and each infected household contact. Influenza A (H3N2) infection was laboratory-confirmed in 58 (4%) subjects. VE estimates from both models were similarly low overall, (Cox PH: 20%, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: -57, 59; TH: 27%, 95% Credible Interval [CrI]: -23, 58), and highest for children < 9 years (Cox PH: 40%, 95% CI: -49, 76; TH: 52%, 95% CrI: 7, 75). VE estimates were robust to model choice, though the ability of the TH model to accurately describe transmission of influenza presents continued opportunity for analyses.
? The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
KEYWORDS:
household cohort; influenza; transmission; transmission hazard model; vaccine effectiveness
PMID: 28605429 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwx217
Application of an Individual-Based Transmission Hazard Model for Estimation of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in a Household Cohort.
Petrie JG, Eisenberg MC, Ng S, Malosh RE, Han Lee K, Ohmit SE, Monto AS.
Abstract
Household cohort studies are an important design for the study of respiratory virus transmission. Inferences from these studies can be improved through the use of mechanistic models to account for household structure and risk as an alternative to traditional regression models. We adapted a previously described individual-based transmission hazard (TH) model and assessed its utility for analyzing data from a household cohort maintained in part for study of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). Households with ≥4 individuals, including ≥2 children < 18 years, were enrolled and followed during the 2010-2011 influenza season. VE was estimated in both TH and Cox Proportional Hazards (PH) models. For each individual, TH models estimated hazards of infection from the community and each infected household contact. Influenza A (H3N2) infection was laboratory-confirmed in 58 (4%) subjects. VE estimates from both models were similarly low overall, (Cox PH: 20%, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: -57, 59; TH: 27%, 95% Credible Interval [CrI]: -23, 58), and highest for children < 9 years (Cox PH: 40%, 95% CI: -49, 76; TH: 52%, 95% CrI: 7, 75). VE estimates were robust to model choice, though the ability of the TH model to accurately describe transmission of influenza presents continued opportunity for analyses.
? The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
KEYWORDS:
household cohort; influenza; transmission; transmission hazard model; vaccine effectiveness
PMID: 28605429 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwx217