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Vaccine
. 2026 Feb 17:60 Suppl 2:128166.
doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2025.128166. Online ahead of print.
Evaluating the broader impact of improved influenza vaccines: A full value of vaccine assessment approach
Adam Soble 1 , Mitsuki Koh 2 , Jessica Taaffe 3 , Simon R Procter 4 , Rosalind M Eggo 4 , Stefano Malvolti 5 , Mark Jit 6 , Shoshanna Goldin 3 , Naor Bar-Zeev 2 , Joseph Bresee 7 , Philipp Lambach 2
Affiliations
Seasonal influenza remains a significant global public health challenge, causing substantial morbidity and mortality each year and there remains a need for more effective and durable influenza vaccines. To direct and accelerate research efforts, a full value of vaccine assessment (FVVA) was initiated to quantify the value of next-generation, improved influenza vaccines and identify key challenges that may limit their uptake once available. The FVVA utilized a mixed-methods approach with rapid assessment of literature, stakeholder interviews, and surveys, and quantitative data analysis to estimate the full value of influenza vaccines with improved characteristics. These analyses found that if improved influenza vaccines are broadly employed, depending on their characteristics, using our demand forecast they could avert 6.6-18 billion additional influenza cases, 2.3-6.2 million additional influenza deaths, and 21-57 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) between 2025 and 2050 beyond those averted by current seasonal influenza vaccines. Under this scenario, introducing improved influenza vaccines could be cost-effective in 9-48 % of countries at the lowest assumed price point. However, uncertainties about price and future vaccine coverage may impact the potential cost-effectiveness. Furthermore, from the producer perspective, the FVVA highlighted the robust financial value proposition to develop and commercialize improved influenza vaccines, in both established and emerging markets. Strongly tiered prices could make these vaccines cost-effective in more countries and boost impact further. To ensure that improved influenza vaccines achieve the greatest public health benefit, effective collaboration between vaccine developers, vaccine manufacturers, donors, financiers, multilateral organisations, and policy- and decision-makers will be essential.
Keywords: Cost effectiveness; Demand estimation; Discounted cash flow; Improved and next generation influenza vaccine; Influenza; Public health impact assessment; Value proposition.
. 2026 Feb 17:60 Suppl 2:128166.
doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2025.128166. Online ahead of print.
Evaluating the broader impact of improved influenza vaccines: A full value of vaccine assessment approach
Adam Soble 1 , Mitsuki Koh 2 , Jessica Taaffe 3 , Simon R Procter 4 , Rosalind M Eggo 4 , Stefano Malvolti 5 , Mark Jit 6 , Shoshanna Goldin 3 , Naor Bar-Zeev 2 , Joseph Bresee 7 , Philipp Lambach 2
Affiliations
- PMID: 41707570
- DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2025.128166
Seasonal influenza remains a significant global public health challenge, causing substantial morbidity and mortality each year and there remains a need for more effective and durable influenza vaccines. To direct and accelerate research efforts, a full value of vaccine assessment (FVVA) was initiated to quantify the value of next-generation, improved influenza vaccines and identify key challenges that may limit their uptake once available. The FVVA utilized a mixed-methods approach with rapid assessment of literature, stakeholder interviews, and surveys, and quantitative data analysis to estimate the full value of influenza vaccines with improved characteristics. These analyses found that if improved influenza vaccines are broadly employed, depending on their characteristics, using our demand forecast they could avert 6.6-18 billion additional influenza cases, 2.3-6.2 million additional influenza deaths, and 21-57 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) between 2025 and 2050 beyond those averted by current seasonal influenza vaccines. Under this scenario, introducing improved influenza vaccines could be cost-effective in 9-48 % of countries at the lowest assumed price point. However, uncertainties about price and future vaccine coverage may impact the potential cost-effectiveness. Furthermore, from the producer perspective, the FVVA highlighted the robust financial value proposition to develop and commercialize improved influenza vaccines, in both established and emerging markets. Strongly tiered prices could make these vaccines cost-effective in more countries and boost impact further. To ensure that improved influenza vaccines achieve the greatest public health benefit, effective collaboration between vaccine developers, vaccine manufacturers, donors, financiers, multilateral organisations, and policy- and decision-makers will be essential.
Keywords: Cost effectiveness; Demand estimation; Discounted cash flow; Improved and next generation influenza vaccine; Influenza; Public health impact assessment; Value proposition.