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Published 24 March 2023
DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37176-7
Deborah Cromer, Megan Steain, Arnold Reynaldi, Timothy E. Schlub, Shanchita R. Khan, Sarah C. Sasson, Stephen J. Kent, David S. Khoury & Miles P. Davenport
Abstract
Vaccine protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection has been shown to be strongly correlated with neutralising antibody titres; however, this has not yet been demonstrated for severe COVID-19. To explore whether this relationship also holds for severe COVID-19, we performed a systematic search for studies reporting on protection against different SARS-CoV-2 clinical endpoints and extracted data from 15 studies. Since matched neutralising antibody titres were not available, we used the vaccine regimen, time since vaccination and variant of concern to predict corresponding neutralising antibody titres. We then compared the observed vaccine effectiveness reported in these studies to the protection predicted by a previously published model of the relationship between neutralising antibody titre and vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19. We find that predicted neutralising antibody titres are strongly correlated with observed vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic (Spearman 𝜌ρ = 0.95, p < 0.001) and severe (Spearman 𝜌ρ= 0.72, p < 0.001 for both) COVID-19 and that the loss of neutralising antibodies over time and to new variants are strongly predictive of observed vaccine protection against severe COVID-19.
DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37176-7
Deborah Cromer, Megan Steain, Arnold Reynaldi, Timothy E. Schlub, Shanchita R. Khan, Sarah C. Sasson, Stephen J. Kent, David S. Khoury & Miles P. Davenport
Abstract
Vaccine protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection has been shown to be strongly correlated with neutralising antibody titres; however, this has not yet been demonstrated for severe COVID-19. To explore whether this relationship also holds for severe COVID-19, we performed a systematic search for studies reporting on protection against different SARS-CoV-2 clinical endpoints and extracted data from 15 studies. Since matched neutralising antibody titres were not available, we used the vaccine regimen, time since vaccination and variant of concern to predict corresponding neutralising antibody titres. We then compared the observed vaccine effectiveness reported in these studies to the protection predicted by a previously published model of the relationship between neutralising antibody titre and vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19. We find that predicted neutralising antibody titres are strongly correlated with observed vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic (Spearman 𝜌ρ = 0.95, p < 0.001) and severe (Spearman 𝜌ρ= 0.72, p < 0.001 for both) COVID-19 and that the loss of neutralising antibodies over time and to new variants are strongly predictive of observed vaccine protection against severe COVID-19.
