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Viruses. 2019 Mar 1;11(3). pii: E207. doi: 10.3390/v11030207.
Low Temperature and Low UV Indexes Correlated with Peaks of Influenza Virus Activity in Northern Europe during 2010⁻2018.
Ianevski A1, Zusinaite E2, Shtaida N3, Kallio-Kokko H4, Valkonen M5, Kantele A6, Telling K7, Lutsar I8, Letjuka P9, Metelitsa N10, Oksenych V11, Dumpis U12, Vitkauskiene A13, Sta?aitis K14, ?hrmalm C15, Bondeson K16, Bergqvist A17, Cox RJ18, Tenson T19, Merits A20, Kainov DE21,22.
Author information
Abstract
With the increasing pace of global warming, it is important to understand the role of meteorological factors in influenza virus (IV) epidemics. In this study, we investigated the impact of temperature, UV index, humidity, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation on IV activity in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania during 2010⁻2018. Both correlation and machine learning analyses revealed that low temperature and UV indexes were the most predictive meteorological factors for IV epidemics in Northern Europe. Our in vitro experiments confirmed that low temperature and UV radiation preserved IV infectivity. Associations between these meteorological factors and IV activity could improve surveillance and promote development of accurate predictive models for future influenza outbreaks in the region.
KEYWORDS:
UV; epidemics; influenza; temperature; weather
PMID: 30832226 DOI: 10.3390/v11030207
Free full text
Low Temperature and Low UV Indexes Correlated with Peaks of Influenza Virus Activity in Northern Europe during 2010⁻2018.
Ianevski A1, Zusinaite E2, Shtaida N3, Kallio-Kokko H4, Valkonen M5, Kantele A6, Telling K7, Lutsar I8, Letjuka P9, Metelitsa N10, Oksenych V11, Dumpis U12, Vitkauskiene A13, Sta?aitis K14, ?hrmalm C15, Bondeson K16, Bergqvist A17, Cox RJ18, Tenson T19, Merits A20, Kainov DE21,22.
Author information
Abstract
With the increasing pace of global warming, it is important to understand the role of meteorological factors in influenza virus (IV) epidemics. In this study, we investigated the impact of temperature, UV index, humidity, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation on IV activity in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania during 2010⁻2018. Both correlation and machine learning analyses revealed that low temperature and UV indexes were the most predictive meteorological factors for IV epidemics in Northern Europe. Our in vitro experiments confirmed that low temperature and UV radiation preserved IV infectivity. Associations between these meteorological factors and IV activity could improve surveillance and promote development of accurate predictive models for future influenza outbreaks in the region.
KEYWORDS:
UV; epidemics; influenza; temperature; weather
PMID: 30832226 DOI: 10.3390/v11030207
Free full text