Tweet
Sci Rep. 2017 Apr 19;7:46469. doi: 10.1038/srep46469.
Monitoring seasonal influenza epidemics by using internet search data with an ensemble penalized regression model.
Guo P1, Zhang J1, Wang L1, Yang S1, Luo G1, Deng C1, Wen Y1, Zhang Q1.
Author information
Abstract
Seasonal influenza epidemics cause serious public health problems in China. Search queries-based surveillance was recently proposed to complement traditional monitoring approaches of influenza epidemics. However, developing robust techniques of search query selection and enhancing predictability for influenza epidemics remains a challenge. This study aimed to develop a novel ensemble framework to improve penalized regression models for detecting influenza epidemics by using Baidu search engine query data from China. The ensemble framework applied a combination of bootstrap aggregating (bagging) and rank aggregation method to optimize penalized regression models. Different algorithms including lasso, ridge, elastic net and the algorithms in the proposed ensemble framework were compared by using Baidu search engine queries. Most of the selected search terms captured the peaks and troughs of the time series curves of influenza cases. The predictability of the conventional penalized regression models were improved by the proposed ensemble framework. The elastic net regression model outperformed the compared models, with the minimum prediction errors. We established a Baidu search engine queries-based surveillance model for monitoring influenza epidemics, and the proposed model provides a useful tool to support the public health response to influenza and other infectious diseases.
PMID: 28422149 PMCID: PMC5396076 DOI: 10.1038/srep46469
Free PMC Article
Monitoring seasonal influenza epidemics by using internet search data with an ensemble penalized regression model.
Guo P1, Zhang J1, Wang L1, Yang S1, Luo G1, Deng C1, Wen Y1, Zhang Q1.
Author information
Abstract
Seasonal influenza epidemics cause serious public health problems in China. Search queries-based surveillance was recently proposed to complement traditional monitoring approaches of influenza epidemics. However, developing robust techniques of search query selection and enhancing predictability for influenza epidemics remains a challenge. This study aimed to develop a novel ensemble framework to improve penalized regression models for detecting influenza epidemics by using Baidu search engine query data from China. The ensemble framework applied a combination of bootstrap aggregating (bagging) and rank aggregation method to optimize penalized regression models. Different algorithms including lasso, ridge, elastic net and the algorithms in the proposed ensemble framework were compared by using Baidu search engine queries. Most of the selected search terms captured the peaks and troughs of the time series curves of influenza cases. The predictability of the conventional penalized regression models were improved by the proposed ensemble framework. The elastic net regression model outperformed the compared models, with the minimum prediction errors. We established a Baidu search engine queries-based surveillance model for monitoring influenza epidemics, and the proposed model provides a useful tool to support the public health response to influenza and other infectious diseases.
PMID: 28422149 PMCID: PMC5396076 DOI: 10.1038/srep46469
Free PMC Article