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J Infect Dis. 2012 Dec 10. [Epub ahead of print]
Genetic data provide evidence for wind-mediated transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza.
Ypma RJ, Jonges M, Bataille A, Stegeman A, Koch G, van Boven M, Koopmans M, van Ballegooijen WM, Wallinga J.
Source
Center for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, 3721 BA Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
Abstract
Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry can cause severe economic damage, and represent a public health threat. Development of efficient containment measures requires an understanding of how these influenza viruses are transmitted from one farm to the next. However, the actual mechanisms of inter-farm transmission are largely unknown. Dispersal of infectious material by wind has been suggested, but never demonstrated, as a possible cause of transmission between farms. Here we provide statistical evidence that the direction of spread of avian influenza A(H7N7) is correlated with the direction of wind at date of infection. We find the direction of spread by reconstructing the transmission tree for a large outbreak in the Netherlands in 2003, using detailed genetic and epidemiological data. We conservatively estimate the contribution of a possible wind-mediated mechanism to the total amount of spread during this outbreak to be around 18%.
PMID:
23230058
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
Genetic data provide evidence for wind-mediated transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza.
Ypma RJ, Jonges M, Bataille A, Stegeman A, Koch G, van Boven M, Koopmans M, van Ballegooijen WM, Wallinga J.
Source
Center for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, 3721 BA Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
Abstract
Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry can cause severe economic damage, and represent a public health threat. Development of efficient containment measures requires an understanding of how these influenza viruses are transmitted from one farm to the next. However, the actual mechanisms of inter-farm transmission are largely unknown. Dispersal of infectious material by wind has been suggested, but never demonstrated, as a possible cause of transmission between farms. Here we provide statistical evidence that the direction of spread of avian influenza A(H7N7) is correlated with the direction of wind at date of infection. We find the direction of spread by reconstructing the transmission tree for a large outbreak in the Netherlands in 2003, using detailed genetic and epidemiological data. We conservatively estimate the contribution of a possible wind-mediated mechanism to the total amount of spread during this outbreak to be around 18%.
PMID:
23230058
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
