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J Infect Dis
. 2025 Feb 1:jiaf037.
doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiaf037. Online ahead of print. Annual estimation of seasonal influenza burden in six South American countries: a retrospective analysis of SARInet surveillance data to inform policies
Miguel Angel Descalzo 1 , Francisco José de Paula Júnior 2 , Natalia Vergara Mallegas 3 , Elena Penayo 4 , Carla Voto 5 , Natalia Goñi 6 , Alfredo Bruno 7 8 , Walquiria Aparecida Ferreira da Almeida 2 , Greice Madeleine Ikeda do Carmo 2 , María Fernanda Olivares Barraza 3 , Rodrigo Fasce 9 , Jorge Pacheco 3 , Cynthia Vázquez 4 , Marta Von Horoch 4 , Silvia Battaglia 4 , Carlos Giovacchini 5 , Elsa Baumeister 10 , Adrián Santoro 11 , María Pía Buyayisqui 5 , Miguel Alegretti 6 , Mónica Patricia Escobar Naranjo 12 , Jorge Jara 13 , Francisco Nogareda 13 , Angel Rodríguez 1 , Nelson Jose Alvis-Zakzuk 1 , A Danielle Iuliano 14 , Eduardo Azziz-Baumgartner 14 , Stefano Tempia 15 , Juliana Leite 1 , Marc Rondy 1 , Paula Couto 1
Affiliations
Background: We estimate annual viral influenza-associated mild-to-moderate illness, hospitalizations, and deaths in six South American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Uruguay) during the 2015-2019 influenza seasons as a first step in evaluating the full value of influenza vaccination in the subregion.
Methods: We applied a multiplier methodology using monthly hospital discharge and vital statistics death records, influenza surveillance data, and population projections to estimate mild-to-moderate influenza-associated illness, hospitalizations, and deaths. We estimated the uncertainty bounds based on the 2.5th and 97.5th of the Monte Carlo simulated distributions for the number of cases and obtained the ranges from the minimum value of the 2.5th percentile and the maximum value of the 97.5th percentile.
Results: In selected countries with a total population of 307 million people, the yearly influenza-associated burden of disease ranged between 51 and 78 million mild-to-moderate influenza illnesses, between 323,379 and 490,049 hospitalizations, and between 22,662 and 46,971 deaths during the 2015-2019 influenza seasons.
Conclusions: Each year, influenza is associated with millions of illnesses, hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations and tens of thousands of deaths in six South American countries, affecting a significant portion of the population. Such findings can be used to estimate the number of illnesses averted through vaccination programs and the cost-benefit of influenza vaccines.
Keywords: South America; annual estimates; burden of disease; deaths; hospitalizations; influenza; mild illness; multiplier model.
. 2025 Feb 1:jiaf037.
doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiaf037. Online ahead of print. Annual estimation of seasonal influenza burden in six South American countries: a retrospective analysis of SARInet surveillance data to inform policies
Miguel Angel Descalzo 1 , Francisco José de Paula Júnior 2 , Natalia Vergara Mallegas 3 , Elena Penayo 4 , Carla Voto 5 , Natalia Goñi 6 , Alfredo Bruno 7 8 , Walquiria Aparecida Ferreira da Almeida 2 , Greice Madeleine Ikeda do Carmo 2 , María Fernanda Olivares Barraza 3 , Rodrigo Fasce 9 , Jorge Pacheco 3 , Cynthia Vázquez 4 , Marta Von Horoch 4 , Silvia Battaglia 4 , Carlos Giovacchini 5 , Elsa Baumeister 10 , Adrián Santoro 11 , María Pía Buyayisqui 5 , Miguel Alegretti 6 , Mónica Patricia Escobar Naranjo 12 , Jorge Jara 13 , Francisco Nogareda 13 , Angel Rodríguez 1 , Nelson Jose Alvis-Zakzuk 1 , A Danielle Iuliano 14 , Eduardo Azziz-Baumgartner 14 , Stefano Tempia 15 , Juliana Leite 1 , Marc Rondy 1 , Paula Couto 1
Affiliations
- PMID: 39891537
- DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiaf037
Background: We estimate annual viral influenza-associated mild-to-moderate illness, hospitalizations, and deaths in six South American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Uruguay) during the 2015-2019 influenza seasons as a first step in evaluating the full value of influenza vaccination in the subregion.
Methods: We applied a multiplier methodology using monthly hospital discharge and vital statistics death records, influenza surveillance data, and population projections to estimate mild-to-moderate influenza-associated illness, hospitalizations, and deaths. We estimated the uncertainty bounds based on the 2.5th and 97.5th of the Monte Carlo simulated distributions for the number of cases and obtained the ranges from the minimum value of the 2.5th percentile and the maximum value of the 97.5th percentile.
Results: In selected countries with a total population of 307 million people, the yearly influenza-associated burden of disease ranged between 51 and 78 million mild-to-moderate influenza illnesses, between 323,379 and 490,049 hospitalizations, and between 22,662 and 46,971 deaths during the 2015-2019 influenza seasons.
Conclusions: Each year, influenza is associated with millions of illnesses, hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations and tens of thousands of deaths in six South American countries, affecting a significant portion of the population. Such findings can be used to estimate the number of illnesses averted through vaccination programs and the cost-benefit of influenza vaccines.
Keywords: South America; annual estimates; burden of disease; deaths; hospitalizations; influenza; mild illness; multiplier model.