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Commun Earth Environ
. 2026;7(1):135.
doi: 10.1038/s43247-025-03153-9. Epub 2026 Jan 27.
An outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 could impact the dairy cattle sector and the broader economy in the United States
Guillaume Morel # 1 2 , Anh Pham # 1 , Christian Morgenstern 1 , Joseph T Hicks 1 , Thomas Rawson 3 , Victoria Y Fan 4 , W John Edmunds 5 , Giovanni Forchini 1 2 , Katharina Hauck 1
Affiliations
The outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 in U.S. dairy cattle poses substantial risks to public health, economic sustainability of farming, and global food systems. Using a Computable General Equilibrium model, we simulate its short- to medium-term impacts on Gross Domestic Product and other macro-economic outcomes for the US and its main trading partners. We simulate impacts under the current situation and realistic and reasonable worst-case scenarios. We estimate domestic economic losses ranging between 0.06% and 0.9% of US GDP, with losses to the dairy sector ranging between 3.4% and 20.6%. Trading partners increase dairy production to compensate for the loss. Current government subsidies are about 1.2% (95% HDI: 1% to 1.4%) of output losses, and likely insufficient to incentivise farmers to step up surveillance and biosecurity for mitigating the possible emergence of H5N1 strains with pandemic potential into human populations.
Keywords: Economics; Natural hazards.
. 2026;7(1):135.
doi: 10.1038/s43247-025-03153-9. Epub 2026 Jan 27.
An outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 could impact the dairy cattle sector and the broader economy in the United States
Guillaume Morel # 1 2 , Anh Pham # 1 , Christian Morgenstern 1 , Joseph T Hicks 1 , Thomas Rawson 3 , Victoria Y Fan 4 , W John Edmunds 5 , Giovanni Forchini 1 2 , Katharina Hauck 1
Affiliations
- PMID: 41657975
- PMCID: PMC12880910
- DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-03153-9
The outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 in U.S. dairy cattle poses substantial risks to public health, economic sustainability of farming, and global food systems. Using a Computable General Equilibrium model, we simulate its short- to medium-term impacts on Gross Domestic Product and other macro-economic outcomes for the US and its main trading partners. We simulate impacts under the current situation and realistic and reasonable worst-case scenarios. We estimate domestic economic losses ranging between 0.06% and 0.9% of US GDP, with losses to the dairy sector ranging between 3.4% and 20.6%. Trading partners increase dairy production to compensate for the loss. Current government subsidies are about 1.2% (95% HDI: 1% to 1.4%) of output losses, and likely insufficient to incentivise farmers to step up surveillance and biosecurity for mitigating the possible emergence of H5N1 strains with pandemic potential into human populations.
Keywords: Economics; Natural hazards.