Probably a stupid question, but how do we tell when it's getting pandemic?

[Susie]

Last year ( mainly) and this, I've been watching and posting on the bird flu forums. I've built up my preps, and then used them up as the mice were getting them and they were getting old; I've brewed very noxious mixtures that I fully expect to throw away. I've worried about an unborn grandchild only to see her walk. I've bored everyone in earshot and looked stupid for my pains.

My question - is BF actually getting any more risky for us in the West? is it more of a risk than last year? or is it yesterday's news - a threat but it's never made it to the top rank of threats, unlike climate change.


Is the increased reporting of BF incidents just that - increased reporting that appears because there's a known interest. I can't judge. Part of thinks that as the pandemic hasn't happened yet, it won't for a few years, and that we are all in danger of crying wolf.

This is just to stimulate conversation, I don't know one way or the other. How worried should we be?

[Laidback Al]

Re: Probably a stupid question, but how do we tell when it's getting pandemic

There is no evidence that H5N1 is in decline around the world, in fact just the opposite.

As of 2007, poultry infections have spread among many countries, more than last year. The number of countries with human cases has increased since last year. The number of human cases is continuing to increase, and in places like Egypt it is pushing past 90% CFR.

The only thing that is currently protecting us from an H5N1 pandemic is that it has not yet become easily transmissible among humans.

[JJackson]

Re: Probably a stupid question, but how do we tell when it's getting pandemic

Susie it is a numbers game with fair element of luck/chance.

As H5N1 spreads through the bird population and that infected bird population covers a larger geographical area there are more opportunities for it to infect a mammal (inc. humans). Each time this occurs the virus will try to reproduce in its new host. The mammalian host is different in a number of ways from its natural bird host and this puts severe selective pressure on the strain which currently causes severe clinical infection but none of the resultant viruses have mutated to a form capable of efficient human to human transmission, and survived to infect anyone else. With every new human infection the dice is rolled again. We can not tell how likely any given roll is to produce a pandemic strain but the probability increase roughly in proportion with the number of mammalian infections, if these numbers are increasing so is the danger.

[colormyquilt]

Re: Probably a stupid question, but how do we tell when it's getting pandemic

Another thing to look at is- who exactly continues to invest huge amounts of monies and time into planning for the pandemic? And would these investments continue without good, reliable information on which to base these financial decisions?

[Susie]

Re: Probably a stupid question, but how do we tell when it's getting pandemic

Yes, I know all these things, but it's difficult to decide if it's something that people on Flutrackers forums are looking for, and therefore notice. For instance if you think of red cars, then you see a lot of red cars which you wouldn't have noticed before; but the population of red cars isn't really growing, you just notice them more.

I know that BF reports are on the increase, but is this just a a result of extra surveillance and reporting - and partial reporting at that? In the UK, there was a great fuss about the Bernard Matthews case but to all intents and purposes it has died down now- despite the dire predictions that BF was rife everywhere in wild birds - they aren't dying here.

I suppose my point is - is it like the boy who cried Wolf too many times? How to tell if it is real this time? and if not, how to stop false alarms.

[wetDirt]

Re: Probably a stupid question, but how do we tell when it's getting pandemic

If the time from exposure to being infectious is 3 days, and the virus is contagious enough that one person transmits it to just over 1 other person, then


days: ..............3 days........6 d........9 d........12 d........15 d........18 d
illnesses:..........2.72..........7.39........20.0 9.....54.60......148.41.....403.43
Deaths @ 60%:........0.............0...........12...... ...32..........88........241
So all you do is sit back and count. If, two weeks after you start, in a small area there are about 100 gravely ill people, and 60 deaths, then you are basically there. If, after two weeks, you don't see anywhere near that number of people ill and dying, then you don't have it. Although, by day 9 you ought to be really suspicious, and by day 12, you should be definitely alarmed.

[Solarpanel]

Re: Probably a stupid question, but how do we tell when it's getting pandemic

Susie, a good question for the some of the old timers to address. I have wondered the same in recent months. I to have have to rethink my supplies. I now concentrate of food stuff that has a two year shelf life or more.

From my vantage point as a observer and reader of this site for over a year now, watch the news and this site for reports of:

1) larger numbers of H2H clusters in an area
2) clusters that start with smaller numbers of H2H that grow to spread throughout an area or town
3) follow reported movements large WHO staff

I dont think we will miss the start of the pandemic unless it starts in a country with limited press access like China, North Korea, or other closed countries. There is always the possibility that it may start in the back country or on a remote area of a poor country, but we will see it shortly after it starts.

Continue putting aside your food stuff and watch for

[Amish Country]

Re: Probably a stupid question, but how do we tell when it's getting pandemic

Hi Susie

Your question was not stupid in any way. The answers to it probably answered the same question for a lot of other folk out there who were just too shy or to afraid to ask.

As to family and friends that are sick of hearing about bird flu, you may have a lot of company here at flutrackers who face the same thing. I think that a lot of people will not believe it could happen until the bodies start to stack up. It may not be bird flu. It may be some other bug or natural or man made disaster. Thing is with your preps you and yours should be better prepared to face just about whatever happens. Your preps may mean the difference for your family between an uncomfortable situation and a major crisis that could potentially endanger their lives.

[prepdeb]

Re: Probably a stupid question, but how do we tell when it's getting pandemic

I've been nearing burn-out now and then too. After watching for a long time and prepping, we seem to be on a virtual treadmill of some kind.

Although I don't discuss it as much with others as I used to, I continue to reinforce our supplies. I just added another 25# of coffee, a case of steel cut oats and 6 grain cereal.

Sometimes I sort of envy the people who feel no alarm or reason to prepare, but I don't think any of us can go back to that blissful state again.

Instead, we've got to find comfort in knowing that we are as prepared as we can be individually, which gives us a better chance of surviving and being useful.

[gjs47]

Re: Probably a stupid question, but how do we tell when it's getting pandemic

Probably a stupid question, but how do we tell when it's getting pandemic

days: ..............3 days........6 d........9 d........12 d........15 d........18 d

Thank you, Suzie, for this post. Your words could have come right from my thoughts.

And, thank you Wet Dirt, because your message is exactly the measuring stick that I have been using to base my level of response and connection with the potentialities. I was in alarm mode for quite a while until I saw that there was no 3, 6, 9 and 12 day scenario - at least not published and documentable.

When I see the exponentiality occurring, I will gear up, do an upgraded warning to my loved ones, and then ready myself to do an inplace mode. Until then, it is watching with the rest of you and being very thankful that you have dedicated so much of your lives to this service for mankind.

I have studied, have my food and supplies in place, and am prepared and continue to prepare as much as possible. Since nothing is by chance, I believe that a power greater than us or our minds is overseeing this with love, power, and wisdom in everything that happens. It is simply trusting that all is as it should be.

[JJackson]

Re: Probably a stupid question, but how do we tell when it's getting pandemic

I had almost forgotten about preps, I am so used to using and replacing my stores I dont really think about them anymore, it is the new normal. It is only when others are surprised that I have 20Kg of pasta or 40Kg of salt that I think about it.

[colormyquilt]

Re: Probably a stupid question, but how do we tell when it's getting pandemic

There are alot of people in alot of different places having some very strong conversations about the pandemic. Sometimes, I find myself in those places- at a conference, a training, a community public health meeting. Sometimes, I find myself in places where there is little conversation about the pandemic. I am always very thankful to walk into a room where 75% of the people are able to acknowledge they are prepping. That is supportive.

I have probably grown the most, though, from walking into those places where the majority have very limited information about "this bird flu that is over there some where...". Because I have had to learn to ask questions, such as yours, Susie, and to figure out where to get information that is factual and reliable. Also, to figure out where there is truly only limited information available. I am re-reading John Barry's book. I see so many parallels re: society's response in 1918 and today.

People do want to know- for sure. And then, to know how bad- and where. And sometimes information is forthcoming- and sometimes it's not. Sometimes, there are no clear answers except the ones we find for ourselves. It is my hope that a pandemic can, and will be, averted. It is my hope that somehow with all the wonders we have today- science, medicine, information, technology- a response among the international communities will be coordinated so as to head-off a catastrophe of world wide dimensions.

Anything short of that always comes back to me- my responsibility to myself, my family, my community, my larger community(ies).

[JohnW]

Re: Probably a stupid question, but how do we tell when it's getting pandemic

Another way to look at this is to ask: Who are the people who are most alarmed about the prospect of an avian flu pandemic? Is it right or left wing radicals? Is it the same folks who got in a panic over Y2K? The answer is that it is government bodies, like HHS, the CDC and WHO. Those who know the most seem to be the most worried. I asked my brother, a Ph.D. in Biology, and my allergist...a very bright man...what they thought was the probability of a pandemic. They both used the same word. "Inevitable". I began preparing based on this reasoning. It may be a slow train coming, but it is coming none the less.

As to whether the preparation is useless...when we are approaching the expiration date on food we will donate it to a local food bank and buy more. Some of this is useful now. We bought a generator...and had the first 16 hour power outage we had ever experienced just one week later! As the proverb says, "The wise man sees trouble coming and hides himself, the fool continues on to destruction."

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Probably a stupid question, but how do we tell when it's getting pandemic

WetDirts advice is good - watch for size and quantity of clusters to increase. Also infections of HCW.

Along JohnW's line - I was convinced - 1st as I learned more about the precise nature of this virus, 2nd - when I read the the Robert Webster & other experts were personally prepping for 3 months, and 3rd when I had a serious conversation with a Sanofi-Pasteur project manager - who also said "inevitable" and highly likely to be a major catastrophy.

If it's not H5N1, it will be and H7, H9, or even an H6.

Influenza has been executing this program for along time.

.

[Laidback Al]

Re: Probably a stupid question, but how do we tell when it's getting pandemic

Thanks for reminding us, AlaskaDenise. We are are all focused on H5N1 right now, but a completely different influenza virus could sneak up on us and cause a pandemic. That is why we need to be vigilant.