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The epidemic potential of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in humans in mainland China: A two-stage risk analysis

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  • The epidemic potential of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in humans in mainland China: A two-stage risk analysis

    PLoS One. 2019 Apr 19;14(4):e0215857. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0215857. eCollection 2019.
    The epidemic potential of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in humans in mainland China: A two-stage risk analysis.

    Shan X1,2, Lai S3,4,5, Liao H1, Li Z6, Lan Y7, Yang W1,6.
    Author information

    Abstract

    BACKGROUND:

    From 2013 to 2017, more than one thousand avian influenza A (H7N9) confirmed cases with hundreds of deaths were reported in mainland China. To identify priorities for epidemic prevention and control, a risk assessing framework for subnational variations is needed to define the epidemic potential of A (H7N9).
    METHODS:

    We established a consolidated two-stage framework that outlined the potential epidemic of H7N9 in humans: The Stage 1, index-case potential, used a Boosted Regression Trees model to assess population at risk due to spillover from poultry; the Stage 2, epidemic potential, synthesized the variables upon a framework of the Index for Risk Management to measure epidemic potential based on the probability of hazards and exposure, the vulnerability and coping capacity.
    RESULTS:

    Provinces in southern and eastern China, especially Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangzhou, have high index-case potential of human infected with A (H7N9), while northern coastal provinces and municipalities with low morbidity, i.e. Tianjin and Liaoning, have an increasing risk of A (H7N9) infection. Provinces in central China are likely to have high potential of epidemic due to the high vulnerability and the lack of coping capacity.
    CONCLUSIONS:

    This study provides a unified risk assessment of A (H7N9) to detect the two-stage heterogeneity of epidemic potential among different provinces in mainland China, allowing proactively evaluate health preparedness at subnational levels to improve surveillance, diagnostic capabilities, and health promotion.


    PMID: 31002703 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0215857
    Free full text

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    14 pages .pdf
    https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ar...type=printable


    > INFORM of epidemic potential

    in table 3 they give numbers for "epidemic potential" by region ,
    ranging from 0.0 for Qinghai to 6.4 for Anhui (3.2 for Beijing)

    don't know how to convert these to probability estimates

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