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Int J Infect Dis. 2015 Nov 13. pii: S1201-9712(15)00263-5. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2015.11.003. [Epub ahead of print]
A modelling study of human infections with avian influenza A H7N9 virus in mainland China.
Liu Z1, Fang CT2.
Author information
Abstract
OBJECTIVES:
Since February 2013, more than 400 laboratory-confirmed human cases of avian influenza A H7N9 infection have been reported in mainland China. Little is known on the dynamics of this novel virus in poultry and human populations, which is essential for developing effective long-term control strategies for this zoonosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of screening-and-culling infected poultry on the evolution of H7N9 epidemic.
METHODS:
We constructed a mathematical model for transmission dynamics of avian influenza A H7N9 virus in human and poultry populations. Parameters in the model were estimated using publicly available nationwide surveillance data on animals and human infections.
RESULTS:
By fitting a two-host model, we show that screening for H7N9 in poultry and culling can effectively decrease the number of new human H7N9 cases. Furthermore, elimination of circulating H7N9 virus is possible if an intensive, but technically feasible, poultry screening and culling policy is adopted.
CONCLUSION:
Screening-and-culling infected poultry is a critical measure for preventing human H7N9 infections in the long term. This model may provide important insight for decision-making on national intervention strategy for the long-term control of H7N9 virus epidemic.
Copyright ? 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
KEYWORDS:
H7N9; dynamic model; interventions; trend
PMID: 26585941 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher] Free full text
A modelling study of human infections with avian influenza A H7N9 virus in mainland China.
Liu Z1, Fang CT2.
Author information
Abstract
OBJECTIVES:
Since February 2013, more than 400 laboratory-confirmed human cases of avian influenza A H7N9 infection have been reported in mainland China. Little is known on the dynamics of this novel virus in poultry and human populations, which is essential for developing effective long-term control strategies for this zoonosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of screening-and-culling infected poultry on the evolution of H7N9 epidemic.
METHODS:
We constructed a mathematical model for transmission dynamics of avian influenza A H7N9 virus in human and poultry populations. Parameters in the model were estimated using publicly available nationwide surveillance data on animals and human infections.
RESULTS:
By fitting a two-host model, we show that screening for H7N9 in poultry and culling can effectively decrease the number of new human H7N9 cases. Furthermore, elimination of circulating H7N9 virus is possible if an intensive, but technically feasible, poultry screening and culling policy is adopted.
CONCLUSION:
Screening-and-culling infected poultry is a critical measure for preventing human H7N9 infections in the long term. This model may provide important insight for decision-making on national intervention strategy for the long-term control of H7N9 virus epidemic.
Copyright ? 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
KEYWORDS:
H7N9; dynamic model; interventions; trend
PMID: 26585941 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher] Free full text