Swine Flu Strain Is Severe as 1957 Pandemic Virus, Study Says

[sharon sanders]

hat tip Fla Medic for the link -


Today's world population is 6.7 billion x .25 (attack rate) = 1.675 billion infected X .004 = 6,700,000 deaths possibly.

Seasonal flu case fatality rate is .001



Swine Flu Strain Is Severe as 1957 Pandemic Virus, Study Says

By John Lauerman


May 11 (Bloomberg) -- The swine flu strain spreading around the world is about as severe as the influenza virus that caused a pandemic in 1957, scientists said today.


About four out of 1,000 people who were infected with the H1N1 strain in Mexico by late April died, according to a study in the journal Science that was led by Neil Ferguson of the Imperial College London.

The 1957 “Asian flu” killed about 2 million people worldwide, scientists have said.


-- Editor: Angela Zimm
To contact the reporter on this story: John Lauerman in Boston at jlauerman@bloomberg.net.

[sharon sanders]

Re: Swine Flu Strain Is Severe as 1957 Pandemic Virus, Study Says

I think there are thousands of cases in Mexico that were not counted. This would lower the case fatality rate. I think we still do not know.

But everyone should be prepared. Please see our left side bar for help.

[Shiloh]

Re: Swine Flu Strain Is Severe as 1957 Pandemic Virus, Study Says

see:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=103604

[sharon sanders]

Re: Swine Flu Strain Is Severe as 1957 Pandemic Virus, Study Says

Thanks Shiloh.


Please post only pertinent comments/facts/data/links to this news thread.



Discussion for pithy comments here:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=103605

[gsgs]

Re: Swine Flu Strain Is Severe as 1957 Pandemic Virus, Study Says

2M deaths in 1957 *6.7B/3B = 4.5M deaths in 2009

but it attacks the young, not the old as in 1957

[sharon sanders]

Re: Swine Flu Strain Is Severe as 1957 Pandemic Virus, Study Says

I think the numbers are a matter for debate. I used the 4 deaths per 1000 stated in the study which differ somewhat from the 1957 pandemic.

[sharon sanders]

Re: Swine Flu Strain Is Severe as 1957 Pandemic Virus, Study Says

Neil Ferguson biography -

http://www1.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/people/neil.ferguson/

[gsgs]

Re: Swine Flu Strain Is Severe as 1957 Pandemic Virus, Study Says

I keep seeing sources, which only count 1M deaths for 1957

[sharon sanders]

Re: Swine Flu Strain Is Severe as 1957 Pandemic Virus, Study Says

Can you post some links?

[sharon sanders]

Re: Swine Flu Strain Is Severe as 1957 Pandemic Virus, Study Says

Maybe my case fatality rate estimate was low....... if this study is correct - but I still think there are thousands of uncounted cases in Mexico.


Via email -

Swine Flu Strain Is Severe as 1957 Pandemic Virus (Update1)
2009-05-11 17:31:25.326 GMT


(Adds potential impact, authors? comment in third and
fourth paragraphs.)

By John Lauerman
May 11 (Bloomberg) -- The swine flu strain spreading around
the world rivals the severity of the 1957 ?Asian flu? pandemic,
which was about four to eight times more deadly than a typical
seasonal flu epidemic, scientists said.

About four out of 1,000 people who were infected with the
H1N1 strain in Mexico by late April died, according to a study
published today in the journal Science that was led by Neil
Ferguson of the Imperial College London. The 1957 pandemic
killed about 2 million people, while seasonal flu epidemics
cause 250,000 to 500,000 deaths each year, according to the
World Health Organization.

A ?moderate? pandemic characteristic of the 1957 Asian
flu could kill 14.2 million people and shave 2 percent from the
global economy in the first year, the World Bank said in
October.

A worldwide outbreak as severe as the Spanish flu that
hit in 1918 might cause from 180 million to 260 million deaths,
the bank said then.

?While substantial uncertainty remains, clinical severity
appears less than that seen in 1918 but comparable with that
seen in 1957,? the authors of the Science study said today.

[Shiloh]

Re: Swine Flu Strain Is Severe as 1957 Pandemic Virus, Study Says

Impact of the 1957 pandemic in India:

html: http://74.125.113.132/search?q=cache...ient=firefox-a

Pdf of the above: http://whqlibdoc.who.int/bulletin/19...3)_199-224.pdf

[gsgs]

Re: Swine Flu Strain Is Severe as 1957 Pandemic Virus, Study Says

presumably a typo. 4.2M ?
1.4*2/0.7=4

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=ashmCPWATNwU&refer=canada

A ``mild'' pandemic, similar to the Hong Kong flu of 1968- 69, could kill about 1.4 million people and cut global GDP by 0.7 percent in the first year, according to the World Bank's latest estimates.

Seasonal flu epidemics result in 250,000 to 500,000 deaths annually
A ``moderate'' pandemic characteristic of the 1957 Asian flu could kill 14.2 million people and shave 2 percent from the global economy in the first year, the bank said. Some forecasts have estimated deaths during a ``severe'' pandemic at as high as 180 million to 260 million, the report said.


worldbank refers to this paper:

http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=345

page 15:

although they had the same scenarios as at page 14 (1968:mild,1957:moderate:1918:severe,1918 with
elderly dying at same rate:ultra), this is a new chapter(ii) and they don't explicitely compare the scenarios
to the pandemic years in table 1

-------------------------------------------

Ferguson:
“I am not predicting 3 to 4million deaths. That was what happened in 1957.
The world is a very different place today.
“We have drugs and vaccines, which should reduce the burdens of the disease.
“At the moment, the virus is not spreading fast in the northern hemisphere, because we are outside the normal flu season, but come the autumn it is likely to cause a really major epidemic.

[Giuseppe]

Re: Swine Flu Strain Is Severe as 1957 Pandemic Virus, Study Says

Can you post some links?

Here the links:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=103618

[gsgs]

Re: Swine Flu Strain Is Severe as 1957 Pandemic Virus, Study Says

300/175*70000 = 120000 deaths in USA
RKI predicts 100000 deaths in Germany for a 1957-like pandemic


-------------------------------------------------------

http://www.hhs.gov/nvpo/pandemics/flu3.htm

Between September 1918 and April 1919, approximately 500,000 deaths from the flu occurred in the U.S. alone.

Although the Asian flu pandemic was not as devastating as the Spanish flu, about 69,800 people in the U.S. died.

The number of deaths between September 1968 and March 1969 for this pandemic was 33,800, making it the mildest pandemic in the 20th century.

[Shiloh]

Re: Swine Flu Strain Is Severe as 1957 Pandemic Virus, Study Says

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...4lI&refer=home

Swine Flu Rivals 1957 Pandemic?s Severity, Study Says (Update2)
Share | Email | Print | A A A

By John Lauerman

May 11 (Bloomberg) -- The swine flu strain that has sickened people in 30 countries rivals the severity of the 1957 ?Asian flu? pandemic that was as much as four times deadlier than typical seasonal flu, scientists said.

About four of 1,000 people infected with the new H1N1 strain in Mexico by late April died, according to a study published today in the journal Science that was led by Neil Ferguson of the Imperial College London. The 1957 pandemic killed about 2 million people, while seasonal flu epidemics cause 250,000 to 500,000 deaths each year, according to the World Health Organization.

Scientists are trying to determine whether swine flu will mutate and become more deadly as it spreads to the Southern Hemisphere and back. The virus is more contagious than seasonal flu, the Geneva-based WHO said today in a statement on its Web site. A ?moderate? pandemic like the 1957 Asian flu could kill 14.2 million people and shave 2 percent from the global economy in the first year, the World Bank said in October.

?While substantial uncertainty remains, clinical severity appears less than that seen in 1918 but comparable with that seen in 1957,? the Science study authors wrote.

Flu pandemics occur when a strain of the disease to which few people have immunity evolves and begins spreading. Pandemics usually occur two to three times a century, scientists have said.

The last pandemic hit in 1968, and health officials have been anticipating another since the H5N1 strain began spreading widely in birds in 2003. A worldwide outbreak as severe as the 1918 Spanish flu might cause 180 million to 260 million deaths, the World Bank said.

World Spread

Swine flu has been confirmed today in 4,694 people, according to the WHO, the health agency of the United Nations. Sixty-one people have died, including 56 in Mexico, three in the U.S., and one each in Canada and Costa Rica, health officials said. The U.S. confirmed 2,618 cases in 44 states, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Each person infected with swine flu in Mexico in April gave it to 1.4 more people on average, the study said. While that?s in the lower range of transmission speed for a pandemic virus, it?s quicker than most seasonal flus, the authors said.

An estimated 23,000 people in Mexico were infected by late April, the researchers said. That number was based on case reports and assumptions about the speed of spread, and may have been as high as 32,000 and as low as 6,000, according to the study.

More Contagious

In seasonal flu, each person who comes in contact with someone who?s sick has a 5 percent to 15 percent probability of illness, according to a statement posted today on the WHO?s Web site. In swine flu, the probability increased to 22 percent to 33 percent, WHO said.

Swine flu has been ?overwhelmingly mild outside Mexico,? the WHO statement said. The reason for that variation ?is still not fully understood,? the statement said.

Swine flu is making more young people seriously ill, compared with seasonal flu, and ?is of particular concern? because it?s causing more significant medical effects in people with other health conditions, the WHO said.

To contact the reporter on this story: John Lauerman in Boston at jlauerman@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: May 11, 2009 16:02 EDT