Lancet: Estimated global mortality associated with the first 12 months of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus circulation: a modelling study

[Shiloh]

Source: http://ca.news.yahoo.com/swine-flu-l...232858163.html

Swine flu likely claimed quarter of a million lives: study
AFPAFP ? 1 hour 41 minutes ago

The A(H1N1) "swine flu" 2009 pandemic probably claimed over a quarter of a million lives -- 15 times more than the 18,500 reported, a paper in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal said Tuesday.

The elevated toll underlined the need for better planning and vaccine distribution, said a team of epidemiologists and physicians who made a statistical model based on population and infection estimates to present what they believe is a more accurate picture of the pandemic's reach.

"This study is one of the first to provide a global estimate of deaths caused by the 2009 H1N1 virus," lead author Fatimah Dawood of the US government's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told AFP in an email exchange...

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic likely claimed quarter of a million lives: study

The Lancet Infectious Diseases, Early Online Publication, 26 June 2012doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(12)70121-4Cite or Link Using DOIEstimated global mortality associated with the first 12 months of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus circulation: a modelling study
Original Text
Dr Fatimah S Dawood MD a , A Danielle Iuliano PhD a, Carrie Reed DSc a, Martin I Meltzer PhD b, David K Shay MD a, Po-Yung Cheng PhD a, Don Bandaranayake MBBS c, Robert F Breiman MD d, W Abdullah Brooks MD e f, Philippe Buchy MD g, Daniel R Feikin MD d, Karen B Fowler DrPH h, Aubree Gordon PhD i j, Nguyen Tran Hien MD k, Peter Horby MBBS l, Q Sue Huang PhD c, Mark A Katz MD d, Anand Krishnan MBBS m, Renu Lal PhD a, Joel M Montgomery PhD a n, K?re M?lbak MD o, Richard Pebody MBBS p, Anne M Presanis PhD p, Hugo Razuri MD n, Anneke Steens MSc q, Yeny O Tinoco DVM n, Jacco Wallinga PhD q, Hongjie Yu MD r, Sirenda Vong MD s, Joseph Bresee MD a, Dr Marc-Alain Widdowson VetMB a
Summary

Background
18 500 laboratory-confirmed deaths caused by the 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 were reported worldwide for the period April, 2009, to August, 2010. This number is likely to be only a fraction of the true number of the deaths associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1. We aimed to estimate the global number of deaths during the first 12 months of virus circulation in each country.
Methods
We calculated crude respiratory mortality rates associated with the 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 strain by age (0?17 years, 18?64 years, and >64 years) using the cumulative (12 months) virus-associated symptomatic attack rates from 12 countries and symptomatic case fatality ratios (sCFR) from five high-income countries. To adjust crude mortality rates for differences between countries in risk of death from influenza, we developed a respiratory mortality multiplier equal to the ratio of the median lower respiratory tract infection mortality rate in each WHO region mortality stratum to the median in countries with very low mortality. We calculated cardiovascular disease mortality rates associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 infection with the ratio of excess deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases during the pandemic in five countries and multiplied these values by the crude respiratory disease mortality rate associated with the virus. Respiratory and cardiovascular mortality rates associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 were multiplied by age to calculate the number of associated deaths.
Findings
We estimate that globally there were 201 200 respiratory deaths (range 105 700?395 600) with an additional 83 300 cardiovascular deaths (46 000?179 900) associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1. 80% of the respiratory and cardiovascular deaths were in people younger than 65 years and 59% occurred in southeast Asia and Africa.Interpretation
Our estimate of respiratory and cardiovascular mortality associated with the 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 was 15 times higher than reported laboratory-confirmed deaths. Although no estimates of sCFRs were available from Africa and southeast Asia, a disproportionate number of estimated pandemic deaths might have occurred in these regions. Therefore, efforts to prevent influenza need to effectively target these regions in future pandemics.
Funding
None.

http://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(12)70121-4/fulltext

[tetano]

Re: Lancet: Estimated global mortality associated with the first 12 months of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus circulation: a modelling study

Lancet Infect Dis. 2012 Jun 26. [Epub ahead of print]
Global mortality of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1.
Viboud C, Simonsen L.
Source

Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, 16 Center Drive, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.

PMID:
22738892
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22738892

[tetano]

Re: Lancet: Estimated global mortality associated with the first 12 months of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus circulation: a modelling study

The Lancet Infectious Diseases, Volume 12, Issue 9, Pages 651 - 653, September 2012
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doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(12)70152-4Cite or Link Using DOI
Published Online: 26 June 2012
Global mortality of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1
C?cile Viboud aEmail Address, Lone Simonsen a b
More than 3 years after the emergence of the 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus, the associated global mortality remains unclear. Of 18 500 laboratory-confirmed pandemic-associated deaths identified during April, 2009, to April, 2010, worldwide, less than 12% were reported from Africa and southeast Asia, although these regions are home to more than 38% of the world's population. Laboratory-confirmed deaths are gross underestimates of influenza-related mortality because of the lack of routine l ...

http://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099%2812%2970152-4/fulltext?rss=yes