Econ Hum Biol . Disease and fertility: Evidence from the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in Sweden

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Econ Hum Biol


. 2021 Jun 10;43:101020.
doi: 10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101020. Online ahead of print.
Disease and fertility: Evidence from the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in Sweden


Nina Boberg-Fazlic ¹ , Maryna Ivets ² , Martin Karlsson ² , Therese Nilsson ³



Affiliations

• PMID: 34252794
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101020

Abstract

What are the consequences of a severe health shock like an influenza pandemic on fertility? Using rich administrative data and a difference-in-differences approach, we evaluate fertility responses to the 1918-19 influenza pandemic in Sweden. We find evidence of a small baby boom following the end of the pandemic, but we show that this effect is second-order compared to a strong long-term negative fertility effect. Within this net fertility decline there are compositional effects: we observe a relative increase in births to married women and to better-off families. Several factors - including disruptions to the marriage market and income effects - contribute to the long-term fertility reduction. The results are consistent with studies that find a positive fertility response following natural disasters, but we show that this effect is short-lived.

Keywords: 1918-19 influenza pandemic; Difference-in-Differences; Fertility; Sweden.