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Texas prepares for possible flu outbreak
By JAMIE STENGLE
DALLAS -- With a statewide drill planned for next year to test Texas' preparedness for a possible pandemic flu outbreak, health officials are continuing to tweak the state's response plan.
Several similar drills have already been done locally and regionally.
"With pandemic flu, so much of it starts out as a local response," said Emily Palmer, spokeswoman for the Texas Department of State Health Services, which is heading up the response to a possible pandemic.
The state plan has been in place since 2004 and updated several times since. Local health departments, hospitals, businesses and schools also have prepared their own plans in coordination with the state.
A pandemic flu outbreak occurs when a new, highly contagious form of the flu virus emerges. There is heightened concern that the Asian bird flu could cause a pandemic if it starts easily spreading among humans.
In the last century there were three flu pandemics, the worst being a 1918 outbreak that killed about 50 million people worldwide, and 500,000 in the U.S.
Cherise Rohr-Allegrini, epidemiologist at the San Antonio Metro Health District, said that the department has been working not only with city and county agencies to help them come up with preparedness plans, but also with schools and businesses.
"A large part of our preparedness is making sure other people are prepared," Rohr-Allegrini said.
In Dallas, the city is working on a plan to fill spots if a third of the work force is out sick or caring for a sick person. For instance, library personnel, who would not be essential during a pandemic, could be trained to be 911 operators, said Kenny Shaw, director of the city's office of emergency management.
In West Texas, about 120 people attended the Ector County Health Department's two-day flu summit at the end of November, said Sallie Connor, public health preparedness program manager for the department.
The state's plan estimates that an international outbreak of a new variation of the flu could have a 25 to 50 percent attack rate, meaning 5 to 10 million Texans could get sick. Of those, 4 percent -- between 200,000 to 400,000 -- might have to be hospitalized. Between 75,000 to 500,000 Texans could die.
The plan notes that while local communities are considering alternatives to provide care for the sick, there won't be enough hospital beds for the severely ill. The Texas Hospital Association says the state's 554 hospitals have about 77,000 beds. Most people would have to be cared for at home.
But during a pandemic, health officials said staffing the hospitals -- rather than a shortage of beds -- will be the biggest problem.
Rohr-Allegrini said hospital staff will need training to take on extra duties in case many other employees are unable to report to work.
Among points still to be completed are how many extra antivirals Texas will order. Antivirals like Tamiflu can be used to reduce flu symptoms and can also help protect against it. The state already has access to about 3.3 million antivirals as part of the national stockpile.
Officials are in the process of tweaking the guidelines for who will get antivirals, both as a precaution and a treatment.
Much of the planning for a pandemic -- which could last up to a year with two waves of outbreaks -- will depend on various factors, including how much warning is available before the pandemic strikes and its severity, Palmer said. It is also unknown whether antivirals would be effective against whatever strain hits and how long it might take to get a vaccine.
"Everybody would go into their response planning mode," Palmer said. "I know there's going to be a lot of decisions that are made at a last minute."
Texas prepares for possible flu outbreak
By JAMIE STENGLE
DALLAS -- With a statewide drill planned for next year to test Texas' preparedness for a possible pandemic flu outbreak, health officials are continuing to tweak the state's response plan.
Several similar drills have already been done locally and regionally.
"With pandemic flu, so much of it starts out as a local response," said Emily Palmer, spokeswoman for the Texas Department of State Health Services, which is heading up the response to a possible pandemic.
The state plan has been in place since 2004 and updated several times since. Local health departments, hospitals, businesses and schools also have prepared their own plans in coordination with the state.
A pandemic flu outbreak occurs when a new, highly contagious form of the flu virus emerges. There is heightened concern that the Asian bird flu could cause a pandemic if it starts easily spreading among humans.
In the last century there were three flu pandemics, the worst being a 1918 outbreak that killed about 50 million people worldwide, and 500,000 in the U.S.
Cherise Rohr-Allegrini, epidemiologist at the San Antonio Metro Health District, said that the department has been working not only with city and county agencies to help them come up with preparedness plans, but also with schools and businesses.
"A large part of our preparedness is making sure other people are prepared," Rohr-Allegrini said.
In Dallas, the city is working on a plan to fill spots if a third of the work force is out sick or caring for a sick person. For instance, library personnel, who would not be essential during a pandemic, could be trained to be 911 operators, said Kenny Shaw, director of the city's office of emergency management.
In West Texas, about 120 people attended the Ector County Health Department's two-day flu summit at the end of November, said Sallie Connor, public health preparedness program manager for the department.
The state's plan estimates that an international outbreak of a new variation of the flu could have a 25 to 50 percent attack rate, meaning 5 to 10 million Texans could get sick. Of those, 4 percent -- between 200,000 to 400,000 -- might have to be hospitalized. Between 75,000 to 500,000 Texans could die.
The plan notes that while local communities are considering alternatives to provide care for the sick, there won't be enough hospital beds for the severely ill. The Texas Hospital Association says the state's 554 hospitals have about 77,000 beds. Most people would have to be cared for at home.
But during a pandemic, health officials said staffing the hospitals -- rather than a shortage of beds -- will be the biggest problem.
Rohr-Allegrini said hospital staff will need training to take on extra duties in case many other employees are unable to report to work.
Among points still to be completed are how many extra antivirals Texas will order. Antivirals like Tamiflu can be used to reduce flu symptoms and can also help protect against it. The state already has access to about 3.3 million antivirals as part of the national stockpile.
Officials are in the process of tweaking the guidelines for who will get antivirals, both as a precaution and a treatment.
Much of the planning for a pandemic -- which could last up to a year with two waves of outbreaks -- will depend on various factors, including how much warning is available before the pandemic strikes and its severity, Palmer said. It is also unknown whether antivirals would be effective against whatever strain hits and how long it might take to get a vaccine.
"Everybody would go into their response planning mode," Palmer said. "I know there's going to be a lot of decisions that are made at a last minute."