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Avian Flu pandemic could 'rock our world'
Avian Flu pandemic could 'rock our world'
Wendy Johnson
The Pine Journal
Last Updated: Monday, June 26th, 2006 11:01:38 AM
Avian Flu may be coming to a town near you.
That was the message relayed last Tuesday night at a special presentation at Fond du Lac Tribal and Community College, sponsored by Community Memorial Hospital, Carlton County Public Health and Volunteer Services of Carlton County.
Northeast Minnesota epidemiologist Amy Westbrook and Joanne Erspamer of Carlton County Public Health presented a comprehensive overview of the disease to a crowd of some 38 community members at the college amphitheater on June 12.
Their message was straightforward ? don?t panic, but educate yourself, stay informed and be prepared.
Westbrook began by explaining a little about the dreaded H5N1 virus ? more commonly known as Avian Influenza. In its severe form, she said, it is extremely contagious and rapidly fatal. Some 224 people have been infected with Avian Influenza between 2003 and February 2006, and 127 of them have died.
She said though the virus remains an avian flu strain, it is possible for humans to become infected, particularly those in rural situations in living quarters close to animals, similar to those in Southeast Asia, where the virus has been detected. Westbrook explained that transmission is possible through contact with manure, handling infected chickens and/or walking through poultry markets where the virus has infected birds.
?Why do we care?? Westbrook posed. ?We care because the virus is spreading rapidly among birds and across countries. It has also started jumping hosts across the animal groups (horses have been know to be infected with it but not dogs) and it has the potential to mutate dramatically into a human strain that would undoubtedly be impossible to irradiate.?
Westbrook said if the Avian Influenza virus mutates to the point where the disease can be spread from human to human, it could very well lead to a global epidemic.
?When there is no immunity within a population,? she explained, ?there is bound to be a much higher infection rate.?
She said flu viruses such as this have tended to come along every 20-30 years. The Spanish Flu of 1919 caused six million deaths, and similar, yet less virulent, strains came along in 1957 and 1968.
?Another could come along as soon as one to two years from now ? or as long as five to 10 years,? said Westbrook. ?We just don?t know.?
Based on past experience from new influenza viruses, Westbrook said the disease will strike with little warning, have a higher infection rate than seasonal influenza, and antivirals (such as Tamiflu) may or may not be effective against it.
The attack rate with a new strain of influenza has typically been about 30 percent of the population, which would amount to 1,544,000 cases in Minnesota and 96,800 in northeastern Minnesota alone.
The hospitalization rate with new flu strains is often as high as four percent ? 61,760 people in Minnesota based on current census figures, or 3,870 in northeastern Minnesota (though there are currently only 607 hospital beds in the region). The case fatality rate averages two percent, amounting to a prospective 30,880 deaths in Minnesota and 1,930 in northeastern Minnesota.
Westbrook said though the United States has stockpiled two million doses of Tamiflu, that is only enough to treat one percent of the population of the United States.
Next week?s article will discuss how a flu pandemic will impact our community and what we can do to prepare for it.
http://www.cloquetmn.com/journal/ind...tory_id=221376
Wendy Johnson
The Pine Journal
Last Updated: Monday, June 26th, 2006 11:01:38 AM
Avian Flu may be coming to a town near you.
That was the message relayed last Tuesday night at a special presentation at Fond du Lac Tribal and Community College, sponsored by Community Memorial Hospital, Carlton County Public Health and Volunteer Services of Carlton County.
Northeast Minnesota epidemiologist Amy Westbrook and Joanne Erspamer of Carlton County Public Health presented a comprehensive overview of the disease to a crowd of some 38 community members at the college amphitheater on June 12.
Their message was straightforward ? don?t panic, but educate yourself, stay informed and be prepared.
Westbrook began by explaining a little about the dreaded H5N1 virus ? more commonly known as Avian Influenza. In its severe form, she said, it is extremely contagious and rapidly fatal. Some 224 people have been infected with Avian Influenza between 2003 and February 2006, and 127 of them have died.
She said though the virus remains an avian flu strain, it is possible for humans to become infected, particularly those in rural situations in living quarters close to animals, similar to those in Southeast Asia, where the virus has been detected. Westbrook explained that transmission is possible through contact with manure, handling infected chickens and/or walking through poultry markets where the virus has infected birds.
?Why do we care?? Westbrook posed. ?We care because the virus is spreading rapidly among birds and across countries. It has also started jumping hosts across the animal groups (horses have been know to be infected with it but not dogs) and it has the potential to mutate dramatically into a human strain that would undoubtedly be impossible to irradiate.?
Westbrook said if the Avian Influenza virus mutates to the point where the disease can be spread from human to human, it could very well lead to a global epidemic.
?When there is no immunity within a population,? she explained, ?there is bound to be a much higher infection rate.?
She said flu viruses such as this have tended to come along every 20-30 years. The Spanish Flu of 1919 caused six million deaths, and similar, yet less virulent, strains came along in 1957 and 1968.
?Another could come along as soon as one to two years from now ? or as long as five to 10 years,? said Westbrook. ?We just don?t know.?
Based on past experience from new influenza viruses, Westbrook said the disease will strike with little warning, have a higher infection rate than seasonal influenza, and antivirals (such as Tamiflu) may or may not be effective against it.
The attack rate with a new strain of influenza has typically been about 30 percent of the population, which would amount to 1,544,000 cases in Minnesota and 96,800 in northeastern Minnesota alone.
The hospitalization rate with new flu strains is often as high as four percent ? 61,760 people in Minnesota based on current census figures, or 3,870 in northeastern Minnesota (though there are currently only 607 hospital beds in the region). The case fatality rate averages two percent, amounting to a prospective 30,880 deaths in Minnesota and 1,930 in northeastern Minnesota.
Westbrook said though the United States has stockpiled two million doses of Tamiflu, that is only enough to treat one percent of the population of the United States.
Next week?s article will discuss how a flu pandemic will impact our community and what we can do to prepare for it.
http://www.cloquetmn.com/journal/ind...tory_id=221376