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Lots of interesting tidbits in this very long article. I've Bolded some of the more important ones.
Industry fears even one bird flu case
If most lethal form hits United States, panic may cost companies millions
/GARY EMEIGH
Sam Slabaugh strictly monitors access to his three poultry houses in Delmar. He has stuffed foam into every conceivable hole to prevent animals from squeezing in.
> Special report
Avian Flu in Delaware
Buy this photo
The News Journal/GARY EMEIGH
Despite all his precautions, there is one thing Slabaugh and other poultry farmers can't control: wild birds. "We can't stop the wild birds from flying over," Slabaugh said.
At Sam Slabaugh's farm in Delmar, computers help control the distribution of food and water for his chickens.
By LULADEY B. TADESSE
The News Journal
04/16/2006
Sam Slabaugh is doing everything he can to protect his 90,000-chicken Delmar farm from the deadly avian flu virus.
He is following industry-recommended biosecurity measures. He changes his outfit whenever he enters his farm. Access to his chicken houses is strictly monitored. And he avoids the notoriously dangerous live bird markets. He has stuffed foam into every conceivable hole in his three poultry houses to prevent birds from squeezing in.
Despite all his precautions, there is one thing Slabaugh and other poultry farmers can't control: wild birds.
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"We can't stop the wild birds from flying over," Slabaugh said.
One step onto the droppings of an infected wild bird followed by another into a chicken house could spread the avian flu virus to a commercial flock.
This spring, experts expect thousands of shorebirds from North America nesting in Alaska to intermingle with birds from Asia, which may be infected with the highly virulent avian flu virus, known as H5N1. Since 2003, the virus has killed or forced the slaughter of more than 200 million chickens, ducks, turkeys and other domestic fowl in Asia, Europe and Africa.
The fear is that some birds returning to the rest of the United States this summer and fall will bring the virus with them. Federal officials said they expect 50 to 100 presumptive cases of H5N1 avian flu in wild birds this year.
"Certainly, a case would be bad news for the industry," said Parr Rosson, poultry economist with cooperative extension at Texas A&M University.
The arrival of the virus in this country is expected to have economic consequences for the nation's $20.4 billion commercial poultry industry, including Delaware's $686 million portion.
A lot will depend on the reaction of consumers abroad and in the United States.
Economists said consumer reaction will vary depending on severity of the avian flu and where it is found: an isolated forest far away from commercial flocks or inside the heart of a poultry-growing region like Delmarva.
In a worst-case scenario, discovery of the highly dangerous H5N1 form of the virus would almost certainly result in an immediate ban on exports by various nations, dragging down already lagging consumption abroad.
The industry is expected to lose more than $1 billion in sales this year compared with last year because of declining exports and poultry prices associated with avian flu, said Paul Aho, a poultry economist and consultant based in Storrs, Conn. That doesn't even take into consideration what would happen to the industry if bird flu is found in the United States.
"The situation is bad now, the only thing worse than we have now is if the hot bird flu got into the U.S.," said Aho. "If the bird flu should come to the United States, there may be some consumers that might eat less chicken even though there is no reason to eat less chicken."
Unlike many developing countries in Asia, the U.S. poultry industry raises its birds in enclosed houses, avoiding interaction with migratory birds.
Despite similar biosecurity measures, a mild version of avian flu penetrated Delaware's poultry industry two years ago. There are no guarantees it won't happen again.
This year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and other agencies plans to collect between 75,000 and 100,000 samples from live and dead wild birds to monitor the potential spread of avian flu in the country and help poultry companies take additional precautions.
The poultry industry in Delaware, as well as the country, has taken steps to curb the spread of the disease and prevent it from getting into the retail market.
Local companies, including Perdue Farms, Mountaire Farms, Tyson Foods and Allen Family Foods, have increased avian flu testing of their birds. Each flock is tested before slaughter.
The industry and federal officials continue to emphasize to consumers that the chicken they purchase at the grocery store or eat at a restaurant is safe. Cooking chicken kills the virus.
But consumers in Europe and Asia don't care -- they are avoiding chicken, American or otherwise.
"You would think the U.S. would be better off in world markets because we haven't even had a case in wild birds yet," said Tom Jackson, senior agricultural economist at Global Insight in Eddystone, Pa.
This trend may be an ominous foreshadowing of the overseas reaction if avian flu is found in the United States.
The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations has dropped its forecast for worldwide per-capita poultry consumption by 3 percent, or 3 million tons, this year to 81.8 million tons because of people's fears associated with bird flu.
The U.N. agency projected U.S. chicken exports to decline by about 2 percent this year compared with a growth of 7.5 percent last year.
Small markets affected
Even in small export markets like Delaware, which exports about $61 million in broilers annually, a decline in foreign consumption is hurting the industry.
"When overseas customers stop buying American chicken, whether we are selling it or not from Delmarva, it impacts the whole export system," said Bill Satterfield, executive director of the Delmarva Poultry Industry Inc., a trade group that represents farmers and companies belonging to the peninsula's $2 billion industry.
Declining consumption of U.S. poultry exports, including to Russia, the No. 1 importer of American chicken, has created a glut in chicken legs, the most popular part of the chicken exported.
Leg quarter prices fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2005. Then during the first two months of 2006, leg quarters averaged 23.5 cents a pound, down 22 percent from the same period last year, according to the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Several poultry companies have lowered their earnings expectations this year, mostly in response to declining export markets. Some American companies are finding it more lucrative to sell the meat to domestic pet-food companies instead of exporting it.
"I have heard of a few poultry companies on an isolated basis that needed to send dark meat to a rendering plant -- that is how bad this industry is being impacted by a lot of misinformation," said Chick Allen, president of Allen Family Foods in Seaford, which gets about 6 percent of sales from exports. "Other countries' consumers don't understand the issue relating to bird flu, swain flu or a cow virus. They have just said, 'I am just not going to bother buying chicken.' "
Americans steadfast
American consumers have not flinched during past episodes of avian flu in Delaware and other parts of the United States.
After two farms in Delaware were found to have a mild form of bird flu in 2004, as many as 60 countries banned chicken from the First State and other states for as long as 10 months.
Countries like Russia banned exports from Delaware, but accepted imports from other states not infected by the virus. Others, such as China, banned all U.S. chicken until they were satisfied that the problem in Delaware had been eradicated.
Still, Delaware's efficient manner of containing and destroying the virus did not shake the confidence of American consumers.
"I am sure that if it was something really serious, the government would notify us about it," said Greta Gibson, 48, a certified nursing assistant and medical secretary from Newark, who eats chicken three times a week. "So I don't have any problem with the chicken as long as you cook it well."
In 2004, U.S. per capita broiler consumption actually rose to 84.3 pounds from 81.6 pounds a year earlier. News of foreign cases of avian flu also have not had an impact on American consumers. This year, the Economic Research Service projects per capita consumption will rise to 87.7 pounds.
Some economists hope consumers will react to avian flu the same way they reacted to mad cow disease -- by continuing to eat meat.
"I just think the U.S. and Canadians have a different view of risk," said Jackson of Global Insight. "For the most part, people would be pretty confident that it would be isolated and they would quarantine the farm and they have pretty aggressive inspection."
But no one is certain how American consumers will react.
A recent survey by Harvard School of Public Health shows consumers may not be as willing to eat chicken if the deadly avian flu virus is discovered in poultry in the United States.
The survey, released in February, found 46 percent of respondents who eat chicken or other poultry would stop eating it if such cases were reported in this country.
"Should there be cases of flu in chickens here, it could lead to a substantial reduction in the consumption of chicken, which would adversely affect the U.S. poultry industry," wrote Robert J. Blendon, professor of health policy and political analysis at the Harvard School of Public Health, who was involved with the survey. "Public education regarding the safety of cooked chicken could help prevent this problem."
It won't last long
Because of the poultry industry's stringent monitoring of commercial birds for disease, even if there was a negative reaction from American consumers, experts don't expect it to last long.
"If it is isolated and it appears to be under control, there may be a slight backing away or reaction in consumption," said Rosson of Texas A&M. "But it will be temporary, and we will see it pick up again."
For farmers like Slabaugh, who had his farm quarantined in 2004, during an outbreak of mild avian flu in Delaware and nearby Maryland, the virus is a real concern. But he said he feels like the industry is doing what it can to prevent this disease from entering the chicken farms.
"When you have done everything you can do, you put your head down on the pillow and go to sleep," said Slabaugh. "If the battle comes the next day, you get up and you fight it."
Contact Luladey B. Tadesse at 324-2789 or ltadesse@delawareonline.com.
Industry fears even one bird flu case
If most lethal form hits United States, panic may cost companies millions
/GARY EMEIGH
Sam Slabaugh strictly monitors access to his three poultry houses in Delmar. He has stuffed foam into every conceivable hole to prevent animals from squeezing in.
> Special report
Avian Flu in Delaware
Buy this photo
The News Journal/GARY EMEIGH
Despite all his precautions, there is one thing Slabaugh and other poultry farmers can't control: wild birds. "We can't stop the wild birds from flying over," Slabaugh said.
At Sam Slabaugh's farm in Delmar, computers help control the distribution of food and water for his chickens.
By LULADEY B. TADESSE
The News Journal
04/16/2006
Sam Slabaugh is doing everything he can to protect his 90,000-chicken Delmar farm from the deadly avian flu virus.
He is following industry-recommended biosecurity measures. He changes his outfit whenever he enters his farm. Access to his chicken houses is strictly monitored. And he avoids the notoriously dangerous live bird markets. He has stuffed foam into every conceivable hole in his three poultry houses to prevent birds from squeezing in.
Despite all his precautions, there is one thing Slabaugh and other poultry farmers can't control: wild birds.
Advertisement
"We can't stop the wild birds from flying over," Slabaugh said.
One step onto the droppings of an infected wild bird followed by another into a chicken house could spread the avian flu virus to a commercial flock.
This spring, experts expect thousands of shorebirds from North America nesting in Alaska to intermingle with birds from Asia, which may be infected with the highly virulent avian flu virus, known as H5N1. Since 2003, the virus has killed or forced the slaughter of more than 200 million chickens, ducks, turkeys and other domestic fowl in Asia, Europe and Africa.
The fear is that some birds returning to the rest of the United States this summer and fall will bring the virus with them. Federal officials said they expect 50 to 100 presumptive cases of H5N1 avian flu in wild birds this year.
"Certainly, a case would be bad news for the industry," said Parr Rosson, poultry economist with cooperative extension at Texas A&M University.
The arrival of the virus in this country is expected to have economic consequences for the nation's $20.4 billion commercial poultry industry, including Delaware's $686 million portion.
A lot will depend on the reaction of consumers abroad and in the United States.
Economists said consumer reaction will vary depending on severity of the avian flu and where it is found: an isolated forest far away from commercial flocks or inside the heart of a poultry-growing region like Delmarva.
In a worst-case scenario, discovery of the highly dangerous H5N1 form of the virus would almost certainly result in an immediate ban on exports by various nations, dragging down already lagging consumption abroad.
The industry is expected to lose more than $1 billion in sales this year compared with last year because of declining exports and poultry prices associated with avian flu, said Paul Aho, a poultry economist and consultant based in Storrs, Conn. That doesn't even take into consideration what would happen to the industry if bird flu is found in the United States.
"The situation is bad now, the only thing worse than we have now is if the hot bird flu got into the U.S.," said Aho. "If the bird flu should come to the United States, there may be some consumers that might eat less chicken even though there is no reason to eat less chicken."
Unlike many developing countries in Asia, the U.S. poultry industry raises its birds in enclosed houses, avoiding interaction with migratory birds.
Despite similar biosecurity measures, a mild version of avian flu penetrated Delaware's poultry industry two years ago. There are no guarantees it won't happen again.
This year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and other agencies plans to collect between 75,000 and 100,000 samples from live and dead wild birds to monitor the potential spread of avian flu in the country and help poultry companies take additional precautions.
The poultry industry in Delaware, as well as the country, has taken steps to curb the spread of the disease and prevent it from getting into the retail market.
Local companies, including Perdue Farms, Mountaire Farms, Tyson Foods and Allen Family Foods, have increased avian flu testing of their birds. Each flock is tested before slaughter.
The industry and federal officials continue to emphasize to consumers that the chicken they purchase at the grocery store or eat at a restaurant is safe. Cooking chicken kills the virus.
But consumers in Europe and Asia don't care -- they are avoiding chicken, American or otherwise.
"You would think the U.S. would be better off in world markets because we haven't even had a case in wild birds yet," said Tom Jackson, senior agricultural economist at Global Insight in Eddystone, Pa.
This trend may be an ominous foreshadowing of the overseas reaction if avian flu is found in the United States.
The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations has dropped its forecast for worldwide per-capita poultry consumption by 3 percent, or 3 million tons, this year to 81.8 million tons because of people's fears associated with bird flu.
The U.N. agency projected U.S. chicken exports to decline by about 2 percent this year compared with a growth of 7.5 percent last year.
Small markets affected
Even in small export markets like Delaware, which exports about $61 million in broilers annually, a decline in foreign consumption is hurting the industry.
"When overseas customers stop buying American chicken, whether we are selling it or not from Delmarva, it impacts the whole export system," said Bill Satterfield, executive director of the Delmarva Poultry Industry Inc., a trade group that represents farmers and companies belonging to the peninsula's $2 billion industry.
Declining consumption of U.S. poultry exports, including to Russia, the No. 1 importer of American chicken, has created a glut in chicken legs, the most popular part of the chicken exported.
Leg quarter prices fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2005. Then during the first two months of 2006, leg quarters averaged 23.5 cents a pound, down 22 percent from the same period last year, according to the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Several poultry companies have lowered their earnings expectations this year, mostly in response to declining export markets. Some American companies are finding it more lucrative to sell the meat to domestic pet-food companies instead of exporting it.
"I have heard of a few poultry companies on an isolated basis that needed to send dark meat to a rendering plant -- that is how bad this industry is being impacted by a lot of misinformation," said Chick Allen, president of Allen Family Foods in Seaford, which gets about 6 percent of sales from exports. "Other countries' consumers don't understand the issue relating to bird flu, swain flu or a cow virus. They have just said, 'I am just not going to bother buying chicken.' "
Americans steadfast
American consumers have not flinched during past episodes of avian flu in Delaware and other parts of the United States.
After two farms in Delaware were found to have a mild form of bird flu in 2004, as many as 60 countries banned chicken from the First State and other states for as long as 10 months.
Countries like Russia banned exports from Delaware, but accepted imports from other states not infected by the virus. Others, such as China, banned all U.S. chicken until they were satisfied that the problem in Delaware had been eradicated.
Still, Delaware's efficient manner of containing and destroying the virus did not shake the confidence of American consumers.
"I am sure that if it was something really serious, the government would notify us about it," said Greta Gibson, 48, a certified nursing assistant and medical secretary from Newark, who eats chicken three times a week. "So I don't have any problem with the chicken as long as you cook it well."
In 2004, U.S. per capita broiler consumption actually rose to 84.3 pounds from 81.6 pounds a year earlier. News of foreign cases of avian flu also have not had an impact on American consumers. This year, the Economic Research Service projects per capita consumption will rise to 87.7 pounds.
Some economists hope consumers will react to avian flu the same way they reacted to mad cow disease -- by continuing to eat meat.
"I just think the U.S. and Canadians have a different view of risk," said Jackson of Global Insight. "For the most part, people would be pretty confident that it would be isolated and they would quarantine the farm and they have pretty aggressive inspection."
But no one is certain how American consumers will react.
A recent survey by Harvard School of Public Health shows consumers may not be as willing to eat chicken if the deadly avian flu virus is discovered in poultry in the United States.
The survey, released in February, found 46 percent of respondents who eat chicken or other poultry would stop eating it if such cases were reported in this country.
"Should there be cases of flu in chickens here, it could lead to a substantial reduction in the consumption of chicken, which would adversely affect the U.S. poultry industry," wrote Robert J. Blendon, professor of health policy and political analysis at the Harvard School of Public Health, who was involved with the survey. "Public education regarding the safety of cooked chicken could help prevent this problem."
It won't last long
Because of the poultry industry's stringent monitoring of commercial birds for disease, even if there was a negative reaction from American consumers, experts don't expect it to last long.
"If it is isolated and it appears to be under control, there may be a slight backing away or reaction in consumption," said Rosson of Texas A&M. "But it will be temporary, and we will see it pick up again."
For farmers like Slabaugh, who had his farm quarantined in 2004, during an outbreak of mild avian flu in Delaware and nearby Maryland, the virus is a real concern. But he said he feels like the industry is doing what it can to prevent this disease from entering the chicken farms.
"When you have done everything you can do, you put your head down on the pillow and go to sleep," said Slabaugh. "If the battle comes the next day, you get up and you fight it."
Contact Luladey B. Tadesse at 324-2789 or ltadesse@delawareonline.com.
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