wild birds vs. poultry -spread

[gsgs]

how much percent of the current spread of H5N1 to other locations,
other countries (range more than -say- 20 miles) do you estimate
is due to migratory birds ? (and not poultry-trade)

[Sally Furniss]

Re: wild birds vs. poultry -spread

how much percent of the current spread of H5N1 to other locations,
other countries (range more than -say- 20 miles) do you estimate
is due to migratory birds ? (and not poultry-trade)

20 miles is nothing to the poultry trade.

[gsgs]

Re: wild birds vs. poultry -spread

but more than a sick chicken can walk.
Do you suggest another distance ? Or should I start a 2nd poll with
-say- 200 miles ?
(I was thinking at the outbreaks in Europe 2007
which were much disputed in Germany)

[Sally Furniss]

Re: wild birds vs. poultry -spread

The range a free-ranging chicken walks is measured in tens of meters. Poultry trade assists the chicken to move via planes, trains and automobiles.

200 miles sounds more reasonable. Would there be overlap (in terms of distance) between poultry trade and migratory birds?

Originally Posted by gsgs
I guesstimate, that 70% of introductions to new locations
are due to wild birds.

How do you arrive at a figure of 70%

[gsgs]

Re: wild birds vs. poultry -spread

The range a free-ranging chicken walks is measured in tens of meters. Poultry trade assists the chicken to move via planes, trains and automobiles.

200 miles sounds more reasonable. Would there be overlap (in terms of distance) between poultry trade and migratory birds?

How do you arrive at a figure of 70%

explaining that is lengthy and complicated.
Whenever there is a new outbreak, you try to estimate
whether it's due to poultry trade or migratory birds.
Then average over all those !

It was pretty clear with B.Matthews,Europe 2006,Wachenroth,
probably Korea,Japan, .. then a paper about both (migratory and poultry)
in Nigeria,..., then you read other's opinions,...,

[gsgs]

Re: wild birds vs. poultry -spread

2 votes ;-)

same question at German chicken-owner forum gave
4,3,1,0,1,0,1,0,0,3 : median=10-20%

[HenryN]

Re: wild birds vs. poultry -spread

explaining that is lengthy and complicated.
Whenever there is a new outbreak, you try to estimate
whether it's due to poultry trade or migratory birds.
Then average over all those !

It was pretty clear with B.Matthews,Europe 2006,Wachenroth,
probably Korea,Japan, .. then a paper about both (migratory and poultry)
in Nigeria,..., then you read other's opinions,...,

It is neither lengthy nor complicated. It is nonsense. You have ONE example of trade, which is the exception that proves the rule. Most of the outbreaks in Europe were wild birds ONLY. ALL outbreaks west of China were Qinghai. The latest sequences are from Rostov, where the wild bird sequences EXACTLY match the poultry (chicken matches starling and pigeon). Same is true for Krasnodar (chicken matches whooper swan).

Assigning a number out of thin air does not make the nonsense number "scientific".

[gsgs]

Re: wild birds vs. poultry -spread

It is neither lengthy nor complicated. It is nonsense. You have ONE example of trade, which is the exception that proves the rule. Most of the outbreaks in Europe were wild birds ONLY. ALL outbreaks west of China were Qinghai. The latest sequences are from Rostov, where the wild bird sequences EXACTLY match the poultry (chicken matches starling and pigeon). Same is true for Krasnodar (chicken matches whooper swan).

Assigning a number out of thin air does not make the nonsense number "scientific".

don't forget my Nigeria example.
as for Germany 2007 - I just accidently read this :

http://www.tierschutz-landwirtschaft.de/html/vogelgrippe.html

edit:
OK, apparantly Nigeria was still controversial.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/jul0606nigeria.html

I had remembered it, that at least one of the introduction had been attributed
to poultry trade.

[HenryN]

Re: wild birds vs. poultry -spread

don't forget my Nigeria example.
as for Germany 2007 - I just accidently read this :

http://www.tierschutz-landwirtschaft.de/html/vogelgrippe.html

edit:
OK, apparantly Nigeria was still controversial.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/jul0606nigeria.html

I had remembered it, that at least one of the introduction had been attributed
to poultry trade.

Nigeria was nonsense. The farm to farm spread story was put out by wildlife groups. The sequence data pointed to independent introductions, even in farms 50 miles apart.

Germany 2007 had outbreaks in MULTIPLE cities and states ALL involving wild bird birds before there were any poultry reports.

You are citing fiction.

Nigeria is NOT controversial. The hocus pocus story based on NO sequence data was controversial.

As noted, the sequences from a common source are EXACT matches, well above 99.9% identity

[HenryN]

Re: wild birds vs. poultry -spread

don't forget my Nigeria example.
as for Germany 2007 - I just accidently read this :

http://www.tierschutz-landwirtschaft.de/html/vogelgrippe.html

I didn't bother translating the above. I assume it was some utter nonsense about bioterrorism and H5N1.

Please. Why not start a "My Favorite Martian" thread to discuss fiction?

[gsgs]

Re: wild birds vs. poultry -spread

Ducatez et.al had examined the Nigerian issue :
"independent trade imports cannot be excluded" [CIDRAP]
In Germany 2007 poultry trade was involved,
(which scientist doubts this ?) also probably wild birds

Why should I consider you more trustworthy than those ?
You don't sound very scientific here.

"controversial" and "70%" is not so bad, you should be content with that ;-)

[HenryN]

Re: wild birds vs. poultry -spread

Ducatez et.al had examined the Nigerian issue :
"independent trade imports cannot be excluded" [CIDRAP]
In Germany 2007 poultry trade was involved,
(which scientist doubts this ?) also probably wild birds

Why should I consider you more trustworthy than those ?
You don't sound very scientific here.

"controversial" and "70%" is not so bad, you should be content with that ;-)

Please. Martians can't be excluded either.

The Germany story doesn't get much clearer.

Here's a reality check:

Gemany started with wild birds in Nuremberg dying, almost on a daily basis. This was followed by wild bird outbreaks in Saxony. FLI said the sequences were related but distinct and traced back to the Uvs Lake outbreak in Mongolia, which was massive, remote, and involved only wild birds (and clade 2.2.3). Germany had not reported any H5N1 outbreaks in 2007 at that point and the limited number of poultry outbreaks in 2006 were 2.2.1 and 2.2.2 NOT 2.2.3, which had not been reported by ANY western European country (was limited to regions near the Caspian sea and EAST- like Afghanistan, Pakistan , India).

In Germnay ONE pet duck was infected and that was followed by MASSIVE wild bird outbreaks in Anhalt and Saxony Anhalt involving primarily black necked grebes followed by other wild birds. thus Germany had wild bird after wild bird outbreak involving related (clade 2.2.3) but DISTINCT introductions, exactly what would be expected from wild bird outbreaks.

The German sequences have been published, as have related sequences from Krasnodar, Romania, Kuwait, and Saudia Arabia.

All of the above is public and VERY easy to interpret. The latest sequences from Rostov involve EXACT matches, which is what happens when infections are due to common source (only trade example is Bernard Mathews). The isolates that are in the 99.2-99.5% identity are INDEPENDENT introductions, easily understood by anyone who can read a sequence.

[HenryN]

Re: wild birds vs. poultry -spread

Ducatez et.al had examined the Nigerian issue :
"independent trade imports cannot be excluded" [CIDRAP]
In Germany 2007 poultry trade was involved,
(which scientist doubts this ?) also probably wild birds

Why should I consider you more trustworthy than those ?
You don't sound very scientific here.

"controversial" and "70%" is not so bad, you should be content with that ;-)

70% is PURE fiction with ZERO support.

[cartski]

Re: wild birds vs. poultry -spread

understood by anyone who can read a sequence.

Well, not really - I would suggest that many readers (myself included of course) of FT cannot read a sequence, and are completely befuddled by the mass of letters, numbers and nomencalture.

A tutorial is needed, supercourse lecture, sticky, or editor's summary (such as the excellent summaries in PlOs today). Something should be pointed to when arrays of sequences are presented, IMO.

Is not the debate moot, anyway? Even in the Hungary-Bernard Mathews, or any other transport-transmission case, the origin of the virus was wild birds, however mutated in the secondary host.

Which came first - typhoid or Typhoid Mary? It doesn't matter when you're sick and dying.

Perhaps our concern should be whether or not this theoretical, public debate will derail or delay pandemic preparations.

J.

[HenryN]

Re: wild birds vs. poultry -spread

Well, not really - I would suggest that many readers (myself included of course) of FT cannot read a sequence, and are completely befuddled by the mass of letters, numbers and nomencalture.

A tutorial is needed, supercourse lecture, sticky, or editor's summary (such as the excellent summaries in PlOs today). Something should be pointed to when arrays of sequences are presented, IMO.

Is not the debate moot, anyway? Even in the Hungary-Bernard Mathews, or any other transport-transmission case, the origin of the virus was wild birds, however mutated in the secondary host.

Which came first - typhoid or Typhoid Mary? It doesn't matter when you're sick and dying.

Perhaps our concern should be whether or not this theoretical, public debate will derail or delay pandemic preparations.

J.

I agree that most who read this board can't read a sequence, which is why the poll really is pretty useless. However, the issue is far from moot. Money and time is spent on a useless assay and the true distribution routes are not elucidated.

These routes are quite important for predicting vaccine targets, and based on the disaster in Egypt, is an ongoing and evolving story.