Will we see a pandemic in 2008

[mixin]

Last year when gsgs polled with this question, 15 people responded. 3 felt that there was a 0-20% chance and the other 12 believed the possibilities fell somewhere between 30-90%.

In view of how much Indo was in the news this year and most recently Pakistan, what do you all think the chances are for a pandemic in the coming year?

[mixin]

Re: Will we see a pandemic in 2008

We have 13 votes so far, including mine...and 84 views. Participation is encouraged (you know you wanna ) Anonymous is fine, I'll even take plain ole gut feelings.

I'm feeling optimistic for the next year; 0-10%

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Will we see a pandemic in 2008

Little has changed since last year. What I suspect is happening is a lot of Tamiflu blankets are being tossed over scores of Indonesians. We simply aren't hearing about how many have been treated and whether they were ever sick or, not. Absolutely no testing is being done on persons who have been given the Tamiflu. Do they have antibodies or not? For that reason we have no idea how many actual clusters there are. The probability of a pandemic is absolute for me. At some point it will happen. But, I have no real idea of when. At some point I see a couple of different scenarios unfolding. Any one of which may be the catalyst for starting the pandemic.

Tamiflu is going to become more and more ineffective at treating the disease. Blankets are going to fail and we have pandemic.

The disease is going to get a foothold in a very remote part of the world. Africa is a likely place for this to happen. Once it gets the head start not even a Tamiflu blanket will contain the virus.

The flu will be concurrently infecting either a human or a pig with a regular human flu. This could happen anywhere from England to Hong Kong, anywhere the virus has already popped up in domestic and wild bird populations.

Any of these could happen at any time, now is just as likely as next year. After closely following the virus from its first occurence in 1996 until today, I see a train wreck approaching but I don't know exactly where along the tracks the train will derail. For that reason I am not tempted to vote when the pandemic will occur. I certainly don't see a lessening of the threat but neither do I know of any reason the threat has substantially increased either. Guessing over 50% this year and not having the flu erupt will only make it harder next year for readers to trust our word when we do have more data to work with. Guessing wrong will just make us look like fear-mongers.

[gsgs]

Re: Will we see a pandemic in 2008

median:45
mean: 41
deviation from mean: 28
votes: 154 on 7 forums in total