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**gsgs** · June 29, 2007, 05:44 PM

Re: IEM bird-flu contracts

Originally posted by gsgs View Post

University of Iowa opens new bird-flu contracts
current prices are not yet published:

#1:WHO goes to phase 4 before 1.Jan 2008
#2:WHO goes to phase 5 before 1.Jan 2008
#3:more than 350(*) H5N1-cases by 1.Jan 2008
#4: more cases in July 2007 than in June 2007
#5:human H5N1-case in America by 1.Jan 2008
#6:human H5N1-case in Europe between 1.July2007 and 1.Jan 2008
#7:new human H5N1-case in Hongkong by 1.Jan 2008
#8:new human H5N1-case in Singapore by 1.Jan 2008
#9:high-path H5N1 in America by 1.Jan 2008 in native species
#10:high-path H5N1 in America by 1.Jan 2008 in poultry
#11: H5N1 in domesticated mammals outside Asia by 1.Jan 2008

let's add a #12 contract, which is just #3 but 1000 cases
and 1.1.2009 expiry, so :
#12: more than 1000 WHO-confirmed H5N1-cases by 1.Jan 2009

you can vote here in this thread:
just post 12 numbers in a row for the 12 estimated percentages =
what you would consider a fair price for these contracts.
Use "--" , if you want to leave out some contract.

-------------------------------

The old contracts with expiry 01.July 2007 had been traded at:

Code:

16.April : 02,02,98,--,02,12,63,27,02,02,07 
23.April : 03,02,97,--,03,13,48,23,04,04,28
28.April : 03,02,97,--,03,07,27,13,03,03,13
03.May   : 03,03,97,--,03,07,27,14,03,03,09 
10.May   : 03,03,97,--,03,07,19,17,03,03,07
17.May   : 03,03,97,--,03,07,17,07,03,03,18
24.May   : 03,02,97,--,02,04,20,11,03,03,07
31.May   : 03,03,96,--,03,03,08,08,03,03,07

between 01.July 2007 and 31.Dec.2007 there will be:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
#01:WHO goes to phase 4
#02:WHO goes to phase 5
#03:more than 349 WHO-confirmed H5N1-cases
#04:more WHO-confirmed cases this month than last month
#05:WHO confirmed H5N1 case in America
#06:WHO confirmed H5N1 case in Europe
#07:WHO confirmed H5N1 case in Hong Kong
#08:WHO confirmed H5N1 case in Singapore
#09:FAO confirmed high-path H5N1 case in wild birds in America
#10:FAO confirmed high-path H5N1 case in poultry in America
#11:FAO confirmed H5N1 in domesticated mammal outside Asia

28.June: 03,03,95,97,53,03,17,07,09,17,06,06

**gsgs** · July 5, 2007, 05:50 PM

Re: IEM bird-flu contracts

some small changes, the phase 5-contract was replaced by
phase 4 until July 2008, the H5N1 in domestic mammals outside Asia
was not renewed and we have two monthly comparison
contracts now : current vs. last and next vs. current

http://fluprediction.uiowa.edu/fluhome/AvianFlu_Graphical.cfm?type=policy#policy

#1:WHO goes to phase 4 by Jan/1/08
#2:WHO goes to phase 4 by Jul/1/08
#3:400 WHO-confirmed human H5N1-cases by Jan/1/08
#4:more human cases in Jul/07 than in Jun/07
#5:more human cases in Aug/07 than in Jul/07
#6:human case in America by Jan/1/08
#7:human case in Europe by Jan/1/08
#8:human case in Hongkong between Jul/1/07 and Jan/1/08
#9:human case in Singapore by Jan/1/08
#10:HP-H5N1 in wild birds in America by Jan/1/08
#11:HP-H5N1 in poultry in America by Jan/1/08

Code:

05.Jul.2007:05,07,86,48,47,03,28,23,17,12,07

please give your estimates for the probabilities !
(just the 11 numbers separated by comma in one line as above)

Note, that the pro-med traders estimate the probability as 7%
that WHO goes to phase 4 within the next 12 months.
Phase 4 doesn't imply a pandemic yet, so the probability
of a pandemic is considered maybe 3% or such per year !
This seems to include any influenza pandemic, even a
mild one with H2N2,H7Nx,H9Nx.

**gsgs** · July 24, 2007, 05:30 AM

Re: IEM bird-flu contracts

Predictions as of 7/23/2007
-----------------------------------------

Code:

03 : World Health Organization Phase 4 Announcement by January 1, 2008 
12 : World Health Organization Phase 4 Announcement by July 1, 2008 
22 : WHO will confirm 400 cases of H5N1 before Janruary 1, 2008 
47 : Will the number of new WHO-confirmed cases of H5N1 in humans during July 2007 be greater than the number during June 2007 
53 : Will the number of new WHO-confirmed cases of H5N1 in humans during August 2007 be greater than the number during July 2007 
03 : First WHO Confirmed Cases of H5N1 in North or South America before January 1, 2008 
23 : New WHO Confirmed H5N1 case in Europe between July 1, 2007 and January 1, 2008 
24 : First WHO Confirmed Cases of H5N1 in Hong Kong before January 1, 2008 
23 : First WHO Confirmed Cases of H5N1 in Singapore before January 1, 2008 
13 : First World Organization for Animal Health HIGH-PATH H5N1 Case Confirmed for Non-Captive Avian Species in North or South America before January 1, 2008 
07 : First World Organization for Animal Health HIGH-PATH H5N1 Case Confirmed in Commercial Poultry in North or South America before January 1, 2008

**gsgs** · October 18, 2007, 06:44 PM

Re: IEM bird-flu contracts

Code:

        0  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  A  B  C  D  E  F
27.Sep.:03,08,07,97,23,03,23,23,23,87,09,08,08-06,08
04.Oct.:03,08,04,97,23,03,27,17,18,93,12,08,08-05,08,12
18.Oct.:03,10,05,97,08,03,28,23,23,90,13,09,08-03,05,09

0,03:WHO Phase 4 Announcement by January 1, 2008
1,08:WHO Phase 4 Announcement by July 1, 2008
2,07:WHO issues an emergency travel advisory relating to H5N1 by January 1, 2008
3,97:more than 349 human cases of H5N1 before Janruary 1, 2008
4,23:more than 399 human cases of H5N1 before Janruary 1, 2008
5,03:human H5N1 in America before January 1, 2008
6,23:human H5N1 in Europe between July 1, 2007 and January 1, 2008
7,23:human H5N1 in Hong Kong before January 1, 2008
8,23:human H5N1 in Singapore before January 1, 2008
9,87:human H5N1 in Africa before January 1,2008
A,09:more human cases outside of Indonesia and Vietnam than inside between 07/09/21 and 08/1/1
B,08:HP-H5N1 case for non-captive bird in America before January 1, 2008
C,08:HP-H5N1 case in commercial poultry in America before January 1, 2008

D,06:HP-H5N1 confirmed in USA before 08/01/01
E,08:HP-H5N1 confirmed in USA before 08/04/01
F,12:HP-H5N1 confirmed in USA before 08/07/01

(human cases must be WHO-confirmed, animal-cases must be high-path and OIE confirmed)

**gsgs** · January 3, 2008, 03:19 AM

Re: IEM bird-flu contracts

vznuri wrote:

hi fabio, you have a knack for asking the right/good questions.

here is an excellent article in NYT that Ive been meaning to
comment on ever since it was published. Ive been writing about
prediction markets for ages on the mailing list, and finally
they hit the "big time"

a name to google on "robin hanson" who wrote many theoretical papers
long before this was ever noticed.. mid 90s or so.

justin wolfers named in the NYT article seems to be doing some
research into the area, he's a big convert/proponent

the NYT article is just barely scraping the surface. prediction
markets will be pretty revolutionary as they grow in size &
significance & influence & I predict they will eventually be connected
up with existing stock markets via various quasi-financial instruments
(even more exotic than derivatives.. in fact complex derivatives can
be seen as a precursor to pure prediction markets)

I predict that prediction markets may eventually be seen as even more
accurate & timely than all the existing political polls, as the NYT
article hints at. and thats a MASSIVE industry probably worth tens or
hundreds of millions of dollars per year.

you know how 2007 was the year of social networking? some year in the
future may be the year of prediction markets. 2008 could come close
because of the election, but I think its still too early. expect to
hear much about them. the tipping point will be when average people
participate & use them daily, like facebook. (heck, maybe they will be
woven into facebook as widgets!! now theres a cool idea..)

Odds Are, They'll Know '08 Winner
By DAVID LEONHARDT
Published: February 14, 2007

nytimes.com

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/14/business/14leonhardt.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Prediction market - Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market

Foresight Exchange - Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foresight_Exchange

they work for less political subjects too, like movies. see
hollywood stock exchange

The Entertainment Market - Box Office Futures | HSX.com

http://www.hsx.com

Hollywood Stock Exchange is the place to buy and trade movies, stars and more. Build your portfolio and bragging rights at the same time. Sign Up and get 2 million HOLLYWOOD DOLLARS®.

**gsgs** · January 3, 2008, 03:21 AM

Re: IEM bird-flu contracts

Code:

        0  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  A  B  C  D  E  F
27.Sep.:03,08,07,97,23,03,23,23,23,87,09,08,08-06,08
04.Oct.:03,08,04,97,23,03,27,17,18,93,12,08,08-05,08,12
18.Oct.:03,10,05,97,08,03,28,23,23,90,13,09,08-03,05,09
01.Nov.:03,07,03,92,03,03,18,17,13,88,07,07,05-06,08,10
15.Nov.:03,07,03,94,03,03,18,22,13,88,04,07,03-05,06,10
29.Nov.:03,07,03,97,02,03,23,23,13,83,03,05,02-06,08,08
13.Dec.:03,07,03,28,03,03,13,12,13,74,03,04,03-03,07,10
20.Dec.:03,07,03,89,03,03,12,08,13,77,03,03,03-02,05,16

0,03:WHO Phase 4 Announcement by January 1, 2008
1,08:WHO Phase 4 Announcement by July 1, 2008
2,07:WHO issues an emergency travel advisory relating to H5N1 by January 1, 2008
3,97:more than 349 human cases of H5N1 before Janruary 1, 2008
4,23:more than 399 human cases of H5N1 before Janruary 1, 2008
5,03:human H5N1 in America before January 1, 2008
6,23:human H5N1 in Europe between July 1, 2007 and January 1, 2008
7,23:human H5N1 in Hong Kong before January 1, 2008
8,23:human H5N1 in Singapore before January 1, 2008
9,87:human H5N1 in Africa before January 1,2008
A,09:more human cases outside of Indonesia and Vietnam than inside between 07/09/21 and 08/1/1
B,08:HP-H5N1 case for non-captive bird in America before January 1, 2008
C,08:HP-H5N1 case in commercial poultry in America before January 1, 2008

D,06:HP-H5N1 confirmed in USA before 08/01/01
E,08:HP-H5N1 confirmed in USA before 08/04/01
F,12:HP-H5N1 confirmed in USA before 08/07/01

(human cases must be WHO-confirmed, animal-cases must be high-path and OIE confirmed)

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