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13 November 2006 1601 hrs (SST)
HONG KONG : Asia's regional economy could see a period of contraction next year with a currency crisis, a widening wealth gap, rising protectionism and bird flu posing longer-term threats, a study by a regional think-tank has warned.
Based on a survey of opinion leaders and the views of a panel of experts, the Pacific Economic Co-operation Council forecasts regional growth of 5 percent this year slowing to 4.3 percent next year.
The bulk of the decline is expected to be linked to the contraction of the United States' mighty economy, where demand for Asia-produced products is due too weaken.
"A slowdown in 2007 has been widely anticipated and is largely due to faltering demand in the United States and the effect of monetary tightening around the world," the survey report, entitled "The State of the Region", released Monday said.
While the report says Japan's once faltering economy was back on the up and looking likely to stay that way, China was becoming a concern as its booming economy threatened to overheat and a decline in American demand for its goods posed the possibility of a hard landing.
Economic growth and globalisation, the report says, has planted the seeds of possible strife in the near-term as wealth disparities increase political tensions throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
Also, it warns, energy security and the increasing scarcity of resources such as water -- with 300 million people in China with no access to potable water -- are becoming hot topics that the region is going to have to get to grips with.
Over the longer term, it predicts a pandemic of H5N1 bird flu could have a punishing effect on the region's economies, as could rising protectionism, which looms in the of wake of the collapse of the World Trade Organisation's Doha round of liberalisation talks.
In a bid to mitigate these problems, PECC recommends a toughening of the region's economic forum APEC and to allow interested states like India and Mongolia to join.
.
13 November 2006 1601 hrs (SST)
HONG KONG : Asia's regional economy could see a period of contraction next year with a currency crisis, a widening wealth gap, rising protectionism and bird flu posing longer-term threats, a study by a regional think-tank has warned.
Based on a survey of opinion leaders and the views of a panel of experts, the Pacific Economic Co-operation Council forecasts regional growth of 5 percent this year slowing to 4.3 percent next year.
The bulk of the decline is expected to be linked to the contraction of the United States' mighty economy, where demand for Asia-produced products is due too weaken.
"A slowdown in 2007 has been widely anticipated and is largely due to faltering demand in the United States and the effect of monetary tightening around the world," the survey report, entitled "The State of the Region", released Monday said.
While the report says Japan's once faltering economy was back on the up and looking likely to stay that way, China was becoming a concern as its booming economy threatened to overheat and a decline in American demand for its goods posed the possibility of a hard landing.
Economic growth and globalisation, the report says, has planted the seeds of possible strife in the near-term as wealth disparities increase political tensions throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
Also, it warns, energy security and the increasing scarcity of resources such as water -- with 300 million people in China with no access to potable water -- are becoming hot topics that the region is going to have to get to grips with.
Over the longer term, it predicts a pandemic of H5N1 bird flu could have a punishing effect on the region's economies, as could rising protectionism, which looms in the of wake of the collapse of the World Trade Organisation's Doha round of liberalisation talks.
In a bid to mitigate these problems, PECC recommends a toughening of the region's economic forum APEC and to allow interested states like India and Mongolia to join.
.