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Ha - I am happy with my gold stock purchases.
Maybe i am nieve but it seems to reason that when things go south as pandemic seems imminent that gold will skyrocket - at least for a time... and if it does - then where do we put the $$$ for safe harbor as it all falls down? (OK IF it falls down).
Goju, I'm with F1 on this one: If we are putting this all in the context of a pandemic, I would not feel nearly as safe in the mining stocks as I would the actual gold. Note the recent down move in the stocks when it looked as if we might have slowing world growth. Stock prices can obviously go to zero but the metal will always have some value.
Gold stocks, in fact, any stocks are fine, as long as you understand the volatile nature of the stock markets in a potential pandemic.
Gold is very emotional, as anyone who witnessed the drop from over $ 700 USD/oz can attest. People were "wiped out" in this fall.
So, as long as you have extra money, go ahead. The guess here is when will gold spike in response to a pandemic and what will it go to. The problem is the timing and the emotional nature of that metal.
It is all about risk. The more risk you are willing to take, the more $$$ you can make.
As a financial pandemic planning option, gold should only be a small part of that plan.
(GR is probably biting his nails off to read this ...LOL)
Never having had the extra funds to invest I confess to being out of my depth in this discussion. However, it seems to me, investing in certain technologies/support/supplies with a possible pandemic in mind would not be profiteering, despite the possibility for substantial returns. Without such investment, how can the public hope to have access to the needs described above? Certain strategies incur substantial risk as well; a pandemic may not occur, in which case these investments may prove duds. Yet may prove essential in the event that it does. A distinction between investment and profiteering must be drawn. High risk often results in high return. Even a poor slob like me wouldn't begrudge that .
Presumably the volatility is limited to Mercury. Of course, if you are looking for something to burn, maybe Magnesium or Sodium would be the metal of choice?
Does aluminum foil count? I think there could be a "run-up" shortly.
I am in on this as well. We need to continue the discussion about financial preps to help refine our own thinking as the situation changes and to provide up-to-date discussions for those just starting to plan for the financial impacts of a pandemic.
Since we don't have a pandemic at the moment, I don't see how anyone can be talking about or promoting "profiteering". We all want to minimize our losses and maximizes our gains in light of uncertain market conditions. It will only be after a pandemic has started that we can, retrospectively, apply the term "profiteering" to certain economic activities.
Laidback Al,
I believe 'profiteering' is taking place as we speak.
Let's look at this scenario:
1) Company A claims to have a potential vaccine or new approach to H5N1.
2) You invest in Company A.
3) Company A issues a press release on this potential vaccine/new approach and their stock price takes a positive bounce.
4) You sell off your investement.
5) It later turns out that Company A's potential vaccine/new approach won't be ready for 5 -10 years or the potential vaccine/new approach is really just a whole bunch of hot air with no real substance.
6) Company A stock price takes a loss.
True or false?
You just made money off of pure H5N1 speculation with no proven facts.
I am an active investor and initially became interested in bird flu for that reason. I follow and own a handful of "bird flu stocks" -- mostly companies that make masks and other protective gear. Call it profiteering if you like -- I just look at it as investing and another level of self protection.
ALL investing -- whether its in widgets or apples -- is a level of profiteering.
Most bird flu stocks, by the way, have performed horribly over the last 2-3 months. Interest in bird flu has waned among speculators and there's a greater awareness that vaccine production is a crap shoot. How do you manufacture a vaccine for a virus that doesn't yet exist?
Having said that -- I don't think there's anything wrong with owning a few of these stocks, if only as a hedge. A pandemic will trash financial markets around the world. Your 401k's, IRA's, personal investments, etc. will all suffer enormous losses and likely stay that way for years. Buying a few bird flu stocks can hedge you against those kind of losses. Look at them as insurance.
Gold and gold mining stocks are also insurance. Just look for companies that have mines in politically stable, developed countries -- where the effects of a pandemic on the workforce might not be as severe.
Look for the U.S. dollar and U.S. government and corporate bonds to rally in a pandemic, as there would be a flight to quality... a search for "safe" assets with reliable dividends.
Financial markets around the world are paying little or no attention to bird flu. I've watched in amazement this year as the Jakarta market has rallied in the face of earthquakes, bird flu clusters and an incompetent government. The world is far more concerned about interest rates and oil than it is about avian flu. WHO's disingenuous statements have played a role in this --- setting us up for quite a fall when the first quarantines and travel restrictions begin and the realization sinks in there's a nasty virus spreading fast.
The markets are totally unprepared for it. You should be.
I agree with you that the markets are unprepared for what is coming.
It seems that when it comes to 'really bad things' the markets take a 'wait till it happens' approach.
In 1914 the stock markets were oblivious the day before the start of World War I.
Which is why trying to play the markets going into and during a pandemic is a feat in futility.
One of my biggest concerns will be the 'snake oil' type solutions that are going to appear during the pandemic. We at FluTrackers will do everything in our power to fight these types of solutions, which fall into the category of 'profiteering'.
Even today we fight. As of today we do not allow articles from PRWEB to be posted to the site because they are press releases in which any company can make any claim they want without a shred of evidence. The false claims that some companies and individuals make already fall into the category of 'profiteering'.
The stock market is just one avenue for 'profiteering' to occur. I personally believe that avenue will be shut once the pandemic starts taking hold as most money will be pulled out of the markets. At that point the 'profiteering' will occur locally and that is what we all should be concerned about.
To all of you who long for a Fruit that you feel is going further from you.
I Will not allow the ''Poor harsh Life'' resentment to hijack this thread, but !!!!
But let me tell you this, let this Ghetto Owl write this,
Pour the Grace Money, that felt into your hand to built tyni Community, Eolians, Solar Power, and GreenHouse, then just shut your Power before injustice blast you.
I'm not so sure its futile. Difficult, yes... as most forms of investing are.
I assume you have some investments in the stock market -- either directly or indirectly. Will you stay fully invested in the early stages of a pandemic? Take a wait and see attitude? Pull everything out when the next cluster pops up? We all have those decisions to make. And every one of those decisions is "playing the market" in one form or another. If you pull everything out, you are speculating just as much as someone who buys 100 shares of Masks-R-Us.
To me -- what is futile is throwing your arms up in the air and saying nothing can be done or should be done.
<< I personally believe that avenue will be shut once the pandemic starts taking hold as most money will be pulled out of the markets. At that point the 'profiteering' will occur locally and that is what we all should be concerned about. >>
If everyone pulls out of the market at the same time, "most money" will evaporate. Your shares in GM, Microsoft, McDonald's, etc. will be next to worthless. So will your neighbor's shares. And your employer's... who may or may not be able to re-hire you once the pandemic passes. Your 401k, your IRA and your pension (if you are lucky enough to have one) will be cut to the bone. I would be very concerned about all of that, unless you envision the
next round of profiteering to include sticks and stones as vehicles of commerce. Or, more likely, guns.
I'm glad you're keeping FT a no-hype zone when it comes to stocks. I'll do my part to keep it that way.
Which is why trying to play the markets going into and during a pandemic is a feat in futility.
One of my biggest concerns will be the 'snake oil' type solutions that are going to appear during the pandemic. We at FluTrackers will do everything in our power to fight these types of solutions, which fall into the category of 'profiteering'.
...The false claims that some companies and individuals make already fall into the category of 'profiteering'.
The stock market is just one avenue for 'profiteering' to occur. I personally believe that avenue will be shut once the pandemic starts taking hold as most money will be pulled out of the markets. At that point the 'profiteering' will occur locally and that is what we all should be concerned about.
1) I have 0 (Zero) dollars, 0 (Zero) shares in the stock market, both directly and indirectly. And by the way I never had any money or shares in the stock market.
2) I am self-employed.
3) I do not have a 401k. I do not have an IRA. I do not have a pension.
I believe 'profiteering' is taking place as we speak.
Let's look at this scenario:
1) Company A claims to have a potential vaccine or new approach to H5N1.
2) You invest in Company A.
3) Company A issues a press release on this potential vaccine/new approach and their stock price takes a positive bounce.
4) You sell off your investement.
5) It later turns out that Company A's potential vaccine/new approach won't be ready for 5 -10 years or the potential vaccine/new approach is really just a whole bunch of hot air with no real substance.
6) Company A stock price takes a loss.
True or false?
You just made money off of pure H5N1 speculation with no proven facts.
Would you call that 'profiteering'?
I would.
I guess I am not sure what I would call profiteering. The example you pose seems to me to be a sound investment strategy of maximizing gain. You buy low and sell high. I think it would become profiteering if you had insider knowledge about the vaccine that is not available to every investor.
Suppose we take your same example, and instead of an H5N1 vaccine, we substitute "a cure for cancer" or " a car that 1000 miles per gallon of biodiesel". Would you still call it profiteering if I bought low and later sold when the market runs up the stock price? The very basis of the stock market investment is to sell your positions for more than you paid for them. That is not profiteering to me.
To me, a clear example of profiteering from a potential H5N1 pandemic will be cases where outright charlatans are selling snakeoil and H5N1 miracle cures to the unsuspecting masses once a pandemic starts.
On the other hand, if all the toilet paper in your town is sold out and you have a warehouse full that you are willing to sell, where is the price point between being a shrewd businessman and a profiteering pirate? $1/roll? $10/roll? or a $100/roll?
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