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Looking at the Trend Macrolytics index, there is certainly no alarm in the markets yet over the new Indonesian situation or the Boxun rumors / reports.
Based on the news reports, Indonesia is more ominous than China. We don't know about the validity of the Boxun reports, but there appears to be more suspected cases reported in Indonesia than China.
Baltimore's Novavax (NVAX) rose after the company said that its viruslike particle vaccines protected against two different strains of the pandemic H5N1 influenza -- or the so-called bird flu -- as shown in preclinical live-virus studies conducted with the University of Pittsburgh. The studies have been submitted for peer review, and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will also conduct studies to verify the data. Shares were up 35 cents, or 8.6%, to $4.44.
This one is quickly becoming not only my favorite pure-play for a pandemic warning flag but also a possible trading vehichle, hedging vehicle, or even an investment.
From what I understand for the gold creep up in some Arab and Chinese are switching from dollar based oil to gold? Over simplification and brief catch all answer.
Some countries were starting to trade dollars for gold based denomination,
Why? I don't know and maybe to simple of an explanation. Just glanced overs some summary the other day and that's what I got from it.
Lots of noise in the market at the moment. Baxter is now going down as are most of the rest of the bioflu stocks that I watch. However the market in general is starting the suffer a bit and so the speculative bioflu stocks being high beta will be hit. earlier in the week gold was inching up, oil had reversed some of its surge and some vaccine stocks were doing well while the rest of bioflu was doing badly. that looked a bit odd for a time but with baxter falling and gold stalled it was probably me just misreading market noise.
JetStuuby I read and post on the gold thread though as I interest in the asset is wider than BF I mainly post elsewhere on gold. While GR is an excellent poster I have a different view to him on some of the details.
I mention gold here because it is one of my multiple indicators of threat level that I look to confirm the signal from the bioflu (which I have argued may fall when things move from run up to pandemic).
CHICAGO, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Stocks in the largest U.S. chicken companies were lower on Monday after the deadly bird flu hit a turkey farm in England, but U.S. chicken experts said there is no immediate danger to the $38.5 billion U.S. chicken industry.
"It has to be a knee-jerk reaction to the bird flu," Paul Aho, economist at Poultry Perspective, of the drop in stocks for Tyson Foods Inc. <TSN.N>, Pilgrim's Pride Corp. <PPC.N> , and Sanderson Farms Inc <SAFM.O>.
"I don't think we should be any more worried about this than we were before," he said.
However, the National Chicken Council expressed concern that the turkeys were infected despite being confined to barns. Commercially raised U.S. chickens and turkeys are also kept in barns, which had been seen as a safeguard against the flu.
"We will be interested to hear the results of the investigation on how it got in there," said Richard Lobb, spokesman for the National Chicken Council.
"At this point, there is no reason to think we have any higher risk than we had before," Lobb said of the U.S. chicken industry.
The H5N1 avian flu virus has killed 165 people in 10 countries -- Turkey, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Iraq, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, China, Nigeria and Cambodia. It has infected 271, giving it a more than 50 percent fatality rate, but experts are unsure if some people may have had less serious infections that went undetected.
In response to outbreaks overseas, the United States has tightened biosecurity at poultry farms and increased surveillance of migratory birds to keep the flu out.
Previous outbreaks have hurt U.S. chicken exports as consumers overseas shun the bird.
A case of the deadly flu in a commercial flock would cause the flock to be destroyed and possibly surrounding flocks as well. Also, overseas buyers would likely ban chicken from the infected area.
Exports are important to the U.S. chicken industry, which sells about 15 percent of its production overseas. In 2006, chicken sales reached $38.5 billion.
Near midday on Monday, shares of Tyson Foods, the nation's largest meat producer, were down 9 cents at $18.03 per share; shares of Pilgrim's Pride, the largest U.S. chicken producer, were down 85 cents at $31.21; and shares of Sanderson Farms were down $1.84 at $30.44.
my google hit count is now 7912 and it was only 5563 on friday ( but still far below the 36K of spring 2006)
As expected with all the media interest a fair proportion of the bioflu and vaccine stocks were up today ( though not all medimmune, gilead were down). It was clear it was going to be a good day because biota for the bioflu stocks in the aussia market did well and the european stocks like crucell all did ok.
Biota
Up 2.63%
BCRX
Up 6.23%
SINOVAC BIOTECH LTD
Up 7.84%
NOVAVAX INC
Up 2.44%
GENEREX BIOTECH CORP
Up 2.86%
VIRAGEN INC
Up 6.67%
PEREGRINE PHARMA INC
Down 2.54%
BAXTER INTL INC
Up 0.48%
SOLVAY
Up 2.25%
CRUCELL
Up 0.89%
SANOFI-AVENTIS
Up 0.67%
Expect if the UK story fades so the moves in these stocks will tend to wind back. However the moves do not indicate the market is very interested because none of the moves are dramatic.
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