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    Leveraging the pandemic threat to mature BCM

    A growing number of organizations (in both the public and private sectors) are looking at the threat posed by the Avian Flu. Nearly every major publication and news outlet has covered the potential impact of a bird flu pandemic, and embedded in their coverage is the reality that most organizations have done little, if anything, to prepare. This news coverage has led executive managers to begin questioning their organization?s readiness to respond to such an event. Based on industry-wide surveys, and personal discussions, very little has been done at the corporate level to address this threat. HOWEVER, the growing awareness of this and other emerging threats should be seen as an opportunity to mature business continuity programs.

    Why Don?t Existing Plans Work?

    Why don?t most existing business continuity plans address a pandemic? Because an Avian Flu scenario impacts the most difficult resource to recover ? people. Most business continuity programs either assume that people will not be affected by an event, or outline assumptions regarding the quick return of people to work. Why do these flawed assumptions exist? It?s relatively simple to identify workplace recovery locations, but it?s a difficult and expensive proposition to develop and track redundant institutional knowledge ? as well as geographically separate this knowledge to protect it. Therefore, in a scenario like the Avian Flu, people will be affected, and they may be away for a prolonged period of time. Estimates range from 25% to 40% of the workforce being affected directly or indirectly, and the affect may last as long as four weeks to three months. Fear will drive people toward isolation, and an employee?s last concern will be to work ? their first concern being their safety, as well as their family.

    Although a pandemic scenario has significant personal and business consequences, this situation offers business continuity professionals a unique opportunity to review the readiness of their programs in terms of ?people availability? in general. Planning for a pandemic may lead to risk reduction opportunities for other threats impacting an organization?s human capital. The remainder of this article will explore our recommended approach to planning for a pandemic event, but it?s important to understand that nearly the entire approach can be applied to general planning for employee availability.

    How Are Organization?s Planning for a Pandemic ? or ?People Availability? in General?

    It?s natural to be concerned about the effect of a pandemic on your business interests. Our recommended approach to planning for the loss of people can be summarized into four steps:

    1. Develop assumptions specific to your organization and identify which key business functions would be most impacted by the absence of your employees.

    Executive managers play a key role in analyzing the organization?s exposure to a pandemic event and establishing certain assumptions. Key considerations include:

    ? What does Avian Flu mean to the organization?

    ? What are the assumptions unique to your business both domestically and abroad?

    ? What are the critical elements of the business, particularly those heavily dependent on people and those that are potential single points of failure impacting critical value streams? What are the most critical products for the most critical customers?

    ? What may be impacted, for how long, and to what extent?

    ? Are business processes executed in a way that would contribute to significant business impact in the event of a pandemic event? For example, is product located in a single warehouse, can call centers route calls to one another, etc.?

    ? Who are the key stakeholders of the organization ? both internally and externally?

    Developing answers to these questions provides a decision making framework for executives to effectively select strategy options and eventually manage through a pandemic crisis.

    2. Identify mitigation and response options

    Defining risk management options (risk reduction and business continuity strategies) begins with building or expanding the crisis management process, and continues through the definition of tactical strategies to manage or mitigate the risk of the loss of personnel.

    First and most important, defining the crisis management and crisis communications processes enable formal decision-making mechanisms that are necessary to manage a pandemic event. Organizations with existing, well-defined crisis management processes are well on their way toward preparing to manage a global pandemic event, allowing the business continuity planner to build on the existing processes and to focus on educating the crisis management team about the risks and available options that are specific to a pandemic event. During this phase of planning, there must be significant consideration for the unique communication needs during such a crisis.

    Additionally, a cross-functional planning team should be formed to identify specific methods and strategies to proactively mitigate or limit the impact of a pandemic event before it occurs, and ways to actively respond in order to reduce the severity of the crisis should it occur. These options include the design of monitoring processes and the definition of healthy workplace strategies.

    3. Prioritize options based on risk as part of an escalation plan, with defined triggers

    With assumptions established, and a variety of possible strategies identified, the business continuity planner should engage executive managers to assess risk and prioritize strategies based on a cost-benefit analysis. Once prioritized, appropriate triggers for strategy implementation should be identified and the escalation plan should be documented ? as a separate plan, or optimally, as an addendum to the crisis management plan.

    4. Prepare the organization to implement strategies should a pandemic event occur

    Finally, the business continuity planner should lead the effort to prepare the organization to implement the crisis management and pandemic plans, should the need arise. This will include acquiring the necessary resources, creating and executing training programs, developing awareness plans, and facilitating exercises of the new plans and strategies.

    A Solution to Address the ?People Availability? Issue

    With such a huge potential impact, and with constant reminders of the growing likelihood of a pandemic event, businesses worldwide are now searching for the best solution to mitigate the risk to their organizations. Regardless of the specific industry, a pandemic strategy should be a part of any organization?s crisis management framework. Similar to the recommended approach outlined in the previous section, the solution should include four key components.

    1. A crisis management plan and process includes a well-educated crisis management team. This team must be positioned to make decisions on behalf of the organization and implement risk management and risk reduction strategies on an as needed basis. The crisis management team takes an active leadership role in analyzing the organization?s potential exposure to the Avian Flu and defining and implementing potential pandemic response strategies to manage the event. Crisis management is a critical process that is used to:

    ? Continually analyze the ongoing situation,

    ? Make decisions based on defined triggers,

    ? Implement risk management solutions,

    ? Consistently react to the changing threat, and

    ? Reassure stakeholders as events unfold.

    A key element of the crisis management process is a well-thought out crisis communications strategy ? a strategy that stays in close contact with all of the organization?s stakeholders. In the face of a large scale pandemic, employees and other stakeholders may become dependent on employers for guidance. Businesses will quickly be faced with massive communication and coordination issues. It is essential that special consideration be given to knowing the key audiences, and developing and implementing communications methods as part of crisis management.

    ? Define and implement Emergency Notification Processes through the Use of Call Trees, Automated Notification, Toll-free Numbers and Emergency Websites

    ? Initiating Coordination and Communication with Public Authorities

    ? Activating External Communication Teams Located at Each Domestic and International Location

    ? Communicating Defined, Targeted Stakeholder Communications Content ? focused on threat assessment results, current business impact and response decisions

    ? Initiating Cross functional Customer Response Center - critical product requirements and allocations, customer assistance and response updates

    2. Related to the crisis management plan is an escalation plan with defined triggers to implement risk management and risk reduction strategies is a key element of a pandemic preparedness strategy. Triggers are external events that lead an organization to take action with specified strategies. A key component of the pandemic plan is identifying the triggers, associating a trigger with specific strategies, and clearly training the crisis management team to implement the strategies. As an example, some organizations may define a key trigger as a government confirmed case of human to human transmission of H5N1. A logical escalation plan related to this trigger might be to implement an employee travel tracking process, or a communication regarding travel to affected countries. Another element of the escalation plan may be to review product and materials safety stock, and make adjustments as required based on analysis. Identifying triggers and escalation plans is a key component of the pandemic preparedness solution.

    3. A series of risk management strategies created and resourced before an event occurs must be available to the crisis management team. Risk management strategies are foundational elements of preparing the organization to react should the threat of a pandemic occur. The primary purpose of these strategies is to prepare to reduce the impact of the event and provide stakeholders with comfort that the organization is looking out for their interests.

    Risk management strategies should include processes to monitor the situation and position the organization to react. This includes developing answers to the following questions:

    ? Is a process in place to monitor global health alerts based on the location of your international interests, specifically suppliers, outsourcers, and customers?

    ? Is a process in place to track employees that travel both domestically and internationally?

    ? Are there technology limitations that will impact the organization?s ability to enable employees to work from home?

    ? Is there a succession plan in place, and how should all elements of the business handle decision making?

    ? What and where are the critical staffing needs?

    ? How are critical products sourced, both domestically and from overseas locations? How are they shipped? Are there supply chain single points of failure?

    In addition to processes to monitor the situation and prepare to react in a timely manner, healthy workplace strategies should be in place to minimize the spread of the disease.

    ? Implementing healthy workplace actions and awareness campaigns, to include reminding people to wash their hands and mandating sick employees stay home

    ? Moving people so they are less concentrated, or handing out masks to help slow the spread of the disease

    ? Opening a ?sick room? where ill employees can go before leaving from home

    ? Propping open doors so door knobs don?t contribute to the spread of a disease

    ? Changing the culture of the business for the duration of the event, to include closing conference rooms and the cafeteria, as well as other places where employees congregate

    Operational and tactical strategies should be developed to minimize the impact of a disruption. Although each organization?s overall risk mitigation strategy is unique, and organizations are approaching this issue differently, some commonly considered concepts under development include:

    ? Dispersing critical inventory

    ? Deploy work at home IT assets

    ? Freeze non-critical operations

    ? Re-deploy critical personnel to critical tasks that directly impact critical customers

    ? Adding safety stock for critical product

    ? Prepare for special needs of employee family members

    ? Pre-qualify alternative domestic or local suppliers

    ? Develop joint crisis management/recovery plans with key suppliers

    This is a short introductory list of response strategies. Creativity and brainstorming are key to identifying and developing the right response strategies with predefined triggers for each unique business.

    4. Beyond developing and documenting strategies and plans, exercising these new threat-specific plans is important, as is rolling out awareness activities. Fear is most likely the variable that will impact your organization, and knowledge is the best risk mitigation technique against fear. Training and awareness processes should focus on the crisis management team, and all internal and external stakeholders. This can take the form of live presentations, newsletters, and even online training

    However, exercises are the most important element in providing comfort and confidence to managers and employees alike. Exercising will enable managers to develop experience and knowledge in a low threat environment, as well as identify plan weaknesses and areas for improvement. They will understand how to make decisions, and become familiar with the strategies and tools available to them, which includes the methods to communicate with stakeholders. Employees will also understand what the organization has done to prepare, and they will develop an understanding of what?s expected of them should a pandemic event take place.

    Conclusions

    Planning for the short, medium or long-term loss of employees is the most difficult issue facing business continuity professionals. Developing an understanding of where the organization has personnel single points of failure and how these ?weaknesses? intersect with the most critical elements of the organization is a critical element of planning for the loss of employees. This understanding, when combined with a tested crisis management process and risk reduction strategies, is an effective method to respond to and recover from a pandemic event. But most importantly, planning for a loss of people due to a pandemic will enable the organization to embark on planning for the loss of employees due to other threats. The process remains the same, although the risk reduction strategies to affect the likelihood of the loss will differ.
    "In the beginning of change, the patriot is a scarce man (or woman https://flutrackers.com/forum/core/i...ilies/wink.png), and brave, and hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, the timid join him, for it then costs nothing to be a patriot."- Mark TwainReason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it. -Thomas Paine

  • #2
    Re: Avalution Consulting offers advice to businesses

    DISCLAIMER: Flutrackers have not affiliation with nor do we endorse Avalution Consulting. This information is provided freely from Avalution's website.



    Practical Pandemic Planning Advice

    By Robert Giffin

    This week (not current-2005)Greece became the first European Union nation to identify bird flu in poultry. As this virus continues to spread across the globe, it?s propensity to mutate into a new strain capable of creating a pandemic continues to increase. The World Health Organization notes that this threat is ?serious? and has urged world governments to develop contingency plans in the event of an outbreak.

    While the 2003 SARS outbreak was a call to action for many international companies, few organizations are truly prepared to deal with a pandemic that could reach all around the world and affect businesses of all sizes. Avalution Consulting?s Rob Giffin provides some much-needed practical advice on preparing for this threat.

    The History of Avian Flu
    The type of Avian Flu discovered in Greece is called H5N1 and it is generally considered the most dangerous strain because of its propensity to mutate. Typically, Avian Flu is only transferred between birds, often through contact with bird feces. However, because the flu virus lacks mechanisms for detecting and repairing genetic errors, there is significant concern that the virus could transform into a strain that can be transmitted between humans. The virus?s propensity for mutation is also a concern for health officials seeking a vaccine. Only four drugs are known to work against influenza, and two of them are already showing little effectiveness against H5N1.

    Overall, an outbreak of the H5N1 strain that can easily be transferred human to human would quickly spread worldwide through mass transportation systems. Governments will quickly be forced to try and isolate the virus by cutting off transportation and limiting international travel.

    The small stockpiles of effective medicines will quickly evaporate, and governments will then rely primarily on voluntary quarantines of healthy citizens, while requiring the isolation of the infected.

    The U.S. government`s preparedness plan indicates a major flu outbreak in the United States could kill up to 1.9 million Americans and infect over 50% of the country`s population. This extraordinary increase in need, along with the impact on the health care workforce, will cripple the health care system. Other essential services, including police, fire and infrastructure support, would be equally impacted by a diminished workforce.

    Are You Prepared?
    This scenario will result in two significant impacts for nearly all businesses:

    * Your people will be unavailable (sick, infected, or suspected of being infected) or unwilling to come to work where they may be exposed to the virus
    * Your supply chain will be interrupted, especially for businesses that rely on overseas products, materials, parts or people

    Existing business continuity plans often fall short because they fail to address workforce and supply chain recovery. Two recent business continuity studies support this conclusion. A study sponsored by Continuity Insights and HP found that people risk mitigation and training are the two primary targeted areas for investment over the next 12 months. The second study, sponsored by Continuity Insights and KPMG, noted that business continuity professionals identify the weakest links in existing plans as those associated with ?people? risks, which includes personnel availability and training.

    Continuing critical business functions are obviously very difficult when key employees (or even your outsourced staff overseas) are unavailable for work or your organization lacks the critical raw materials to deliver products and services. As a result, simply ?having a business continuity plan? does not prepare you for the coming threat of bird flu or any other global pandemic. Recent lessons learned from Hurricane Katrina demonstrate the need to address people and supply chain issues. For example, organizations dependent on products and services from the Gulf coast, particularly critical chemical components, learned that contractual language (the most common risk management strategy) failed to protect them given the existence of ?force majeure? clauses. Learning from these experiences will be important because a global pandemic will have a far greater impact.

    In the case of a global pandemic, overlooking these critical aspects of the business introduces considerable risk. Given the amount of press dedicated to bird flu, this issue is and should be squarely placed in front of the organization?s executive management team.
    What Can You Do Today?

    1. Take an inventory of your ?extended enterprise? and the methods of integration with overseas entities
    1. Where does your organization source critical products and services?
    2. Where do single points of failure exist in terms of your supply chain, to include the people tasked with performing critical support functions overseas (i.e., production, call centers, IT development, etc.)?
    3. Do single and sole sourced suppliers exist, and are contingency plans in place in the event of a supply chain disruption?
    4. How are critical products, sourced from overseas locations, shipped (and vice versa)?

    2. Be proactive with your suppliers (and your inventory)
    1. Consider increasing safety stock levels for materials from at-risk countries.
    2. Ask suppliers for their business continuity plans, specifically making inquiries regarding how they address their supply chain and ?people? risks during a pandemic.
    3. Develop joint crisis management/recovery plans with key suppliers.
    4. Pre-qualify alternative domestic or local suppliers.

    3. Review your crisis management plans
    1. Is a process in place to monitor global health alerts based on the location of your international interests (your suppliers, your outsourcers and your customers)?
    2. Is a process in place to communicate with overseas business partners, and track employee travel to high risk areas?
    3. Are processes in place to identify developing threats and make decisions?
    4. Is a Crisis Management Team (CMT) defined to analyze the threat and make appropriate risk management decisions?
    5. Are decision-making criteria and thresholds established to aid in decision-making?
    6. Is a process in place to communicate threat assessment conclusions, impacts and decisions to internal and external stakeholders?

    4. Communicate with your employees

    * Do you have a process in place to communicate with employees while they are at home? Are you prepared to give every employee in your organization an update every 24hrs in a crisis situation?
    * Do you have a work at home policy?
    * How would you track employee availability and identify key employees who MUST come into work?
    * Is the company willing to make special preparations for employee?s families to ensure the employee is available for work?
    * Are your employees equipped to work at home?

    If your organization does not have a defined, tested business continuity capability, the two most valuable short-term actions recommended are:

    1. Assess your global availability risks by analyzing your overseas affiliates, supply chain and customer base, with the objective of developing contingency plans for high impact failures caused by a pandemic.
    2. Define and develop crisis management and crisis communications processes, and provide training to members of the CMT.

    Planning for a potential pandemic is important given the potential risk to employees, revenue, market share and reputation. In other words, proactive planning protects the value of your business. However, a short term focus on a global pandemic threat cannot replace a holistic review of how availability risk threatens your business. Current events provide excellent motivation for taking continuity planning seriously, but no amount of short term planning will be effective without a long term commitment to developing resilient business processes.

    About the Author

    Robert Giffin is a Managing Consultant with Avalution Consulting (www.avalutionconsulting.com), a firm specializing in event risk management and business continuity solution design, development, implementation and long-term maintenance. Avalution Consulting excels at rapidly designing business continuity plans and enabling in-house personnel to execute and maintain the plans long term.
    Robert can be reached at robert.giffin@avalutionconsulting.com or via phone at 800.941.0381.
    Last edited by Niko; October 30, 2006, 12:13 PM. Reason: added disclaimer
    "In the beginning of change, the patriot is a scarce man (or woman https://flutrackers.com/forum/core/i...ilies/wink.png), and brave, and hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, the timid join him, for it then costs nothing to be a patriot."- Mark TwainReason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it. -Thomas Paine

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