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The auto market got off to a bad start, and the dealer inventory warning index in January was 61.8%
2023-02-03 07:52:24
On February 1, the latest "China Auto Dealer Inventory Early Warning Index Survey" released by the China Automobile Dealers Association showed that the Chinese auto dealer inventory early warning index in January 2023 was 61.8%, a year-on-year increase of 3.5 percentage points, at a high level.
Image source: China Automobile Dealers Association
The auto market got off to a bad start , and dealer sales declined significantly
In January this year, due to the two holidays of New Year’s Day and Spring Festival, the effective working days were short, and the fuel vehicle purchase tax was halved in December last year and the national subsidy policy for new energy vehicles expired. The market was overdrawn, and the overall situation was not optimistic.
According to data from the Passenger Federation, from January 1 to 27, the passenger car market retailed 985,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 45% and a month-on-month decrease of 43%. Especially during the Spring Festival in the third week, the decline rate was obvious, reaching 70%. Even the new energy passenger vehicle market, which has been relatively active, has been affected. From 1 to 27, a total of 304,000 vehicles were retailed, a year-on-year decrease of 1% and a decrease of 43% from the same period last month.
Image source: Passenger Federation
The China Automobile Dealers Association has previously estimated that the retail sales of passenger vehicles in the narrow sense in January are expected to be around 1.36 million, a year-on-year decrease of 34.6%, of which new energy retail sales are around 360,000, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, and a penetration rate of about 26.5%.
Affected by the overall unfavorable situation in the auto market, from the perspective of the sub-indices, the dealer market demand and average daily sales index in January dropped significantly compared to December last year.
However, it is worth mentioning that despite the decline in sales, the dealer employees and the operating conditions index have shown an upward trend. This also means that there are more viewers in the store and fewer buyers.
The terminal price is recovered , and consumers are now holding money to wait and see
According to feedback from dealers, during the Spring Festival, the number of consumers visiting the store to view and choose cars exceeded expectations. However, the prices of some models have been raised or the discounts have been narrowed. Consumers are more on the sidelines and are not in a hurry to buy cars. Especially for new energy vehicles , the prices of new energy models have increased too much in the early stage, and there are few orders. In addition , leading companies such as Tesla have cut prices, which makes consumers wait and see.
The data shows that in January, the overall auto market discount rate dropped to about 13.7%, the overall level of profit reduction was lower than that of the previous month (14.2%), and the terminal price recovered.
In addition, the wait-and-see policy is also one of the factors for consumers to delay car purchases. In January, various local consumption stimulus policies have been introduced one after another, and some consumers have strong expectations for national and local car purchase subsidy policies.
Therefore, it is not difficult to explain why the above-mentioned dealerships seem to be booming, but the transaction volume has declined. The China Automobile Dealers Association predicts that passenger car terminal sales in January will be around 1.4 million.
The auto market will heat up in February , and dealers still need to be cautious despite their joy
As people's work and life get back on track after the festival, local consumption promotion policies continue to play a role, and the auto market and dealership operations will gradually improve. The China Automobile Dealers Association predicts that passenger flow will drop slightly after the festival, but the accumulated orders in January will be delivered one after another. It is expected that the sales volume of cars in February will be better than that in January.
Regarding the judgment of the auto market in 2023, in the survey, more than 90% of the dealers believe that the auto market will recover in an orderly manner, and nearly 50% of the dealers believe that the auto market will recover in the second quarter of 2023, especially in the second half of the year. sexual growth. Most dealers believe that the growth rate of passenger car sales for the whole year will be within 5%.
However, although the overall situation of the auto market is improving, some potential influencing factors cannot be ignored. For example, for new energy vehicles, in the past two years, with the gradual increase in market acceptance of smart electric technology and policy dividends such as subsidies and purchase tax reductions, the penetration rate has increased beyond expectations. However, with the cancellation of state subsidies, there will be certain challenges in the new energy vehicle market in 2023.
Therefore, the China Automobile Dealers Association suggests that the future auto market will become more uncertain, and dealers should rationally estimate the actual market demand and reasonably control the inventory level based on the actual situation.
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