Gold - Feb 10, 2006 to Jan 18, 2007

[GaudiaRay]

Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

Mood Enhancing Drugs....like in Xanax?, Zoloft? or a bit more available, like in ecstasy or pot? Hmmm. Long ago and far away....

Here's the skinny on gold at the moment, carried on NY Times internet news, no less. Hi gold.


Gold Hits New 25 - Yr High Over $604, Silver Surges

By REUTERS
Published: April 17, 2006

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-markets-precious.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Filed at 1:16 a.m. ET
Skip to next paragraph Reuters

TOKYO (Reuters) - Gold jumped to a new 25-year high above $604 per ounce on Monday as lingering concerns over Iran's nuclear aspirations and surges in the key U.S. crude price spurred active speculative buying.

Silver (XAG-) rose as high as to $13.33 per ounce, the highest since May 1983, as speculators continued to buy on hopes of an imminent launch of the first silver exchange-traded fund.

Surges of gold (0#JAU and silver (0#JSV futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange spilled to bolster dollar-based spot prices as both London and New York markets were closed for Easter holidays on Friday.

``We all know both gold and silver prices are too high, but no long holders are willing to sell, while short holders were getting heavily squeezed,'' said Takashi Ogura, risk management section manager at Kanetsu Asset Management.

``People don't want to go against the present bullish trend, so prices are surging,'' Ogura added.

Spot gold (XAU-) rose as high as $605.70 an ounce -- the highest since December 1980.

At 0314 GMT, gold (XAU-) was trading at $604.50/605.30, compared with Friday's late Asia level of around $599.30. It was at $596.10/596.90 in New York on Thursday.

New York metals futures markets will reopen on Monday, while London precious metals markets will be closed until Tuesday.

Key most-distant February contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (0#JAU ended the morning session at 2,331 yen per gram, up 12 yen or 0.5 percent from Friday's close.

Gold was supported by bullish U.S. oil futures (CLc1), which leapt to $70 a barrel for the first time in seven and a half months on Monday. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation.

Iran has expanded its uranium conversion facilities in Isfahan and reinforced its Nantanz enrichment plant, a U.S. think tank said over the weekend.

This comes just days after U.S. magazine The New Yorker reported that the U.S. was exploring the option of using tactical nuclear weapons to knock out Iran's underground sites. Western powers fear Tehran may be covertly planning to build an atomic bomb.

Still many traders were nervous about chasing gold and silver from current levels as they were unsure whether the current upward trend would be maintained even after participants fully return from the Easter holidays.

``Rises in TOCOM silver and gold boosted spot prices, while many foreigners are watching today's rises very cautiously,'' said a senior trader at a Japanese trading house said.

``Prices are sharply up but there are few players who are willing to take new positions from these high levels.''

Key most-distant February TOCOM silver rose more than 3 percent on active speculative buying, which helped lift the spot silver price.

Silver (XAG-) was trading at $13.23/13.26, up from around $12.93 in late Asia on Friday and surpassing the previous 23-year high of $13.01 an ounce reached on April 11.

It was at $12.77/12.80 in New York on Thursday.

Both platinum and palladium rose in line with gains in silver and gold.

Platinum (XPT-) was trading to $1,090/1,095 an ounce from $1,080 in late Asia on Friday. It was at $1,075/1,080 in late New York on Thursday.

Palladium (XPD-) advanced to $350/357 an ounce from $344 in Asia on Friday. It was at $344/349 in New York on Thursday.

Precious Metal Prices by 0317 GMT

Last Net Change Pct Move

Gold 604.50 6.50 +1.09

Platinum 1090.00 13.00 +1.21

Palladium 350.00 12.00 +3.55

Silver 13.23 0.32 +2.48

Change so far in 2006

Metal Latest bid End prev year Pct Move

Gold 604.50 517.20 +16.88

Platinum 1090.00 968.00 +12.60

Palladium 350.00 254.00 +37.80

Silver 13.23 8.81 +50.17
More Articles in Business ?
Need to know more? 50% off home deliver

[GaudiaRay]

Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

What eladdie writes is very possible in an extreme circumstance, for a very short while. When all is said and gone, I believe there will be a quick turn to gold by the central banks. Even with 25% dead, my belief is that we won't all be plowing the back 40. We like and we want this society. Gold will facilitate that. Promises to pay, fiat, won't be accepted unless backed by something people trust.

Sorry GR

Your gold is will be useless post pandemic.

Expect a severe pandemic to wipe out all electronic money, bankrupting most people.

Expect paper money to be inaccessible, as most bank vaults today require electricity to open.

So what is money, it's just an ageed upon system of rationalizing realtive values of disparte items. This system is dependent upon all choosing a basic commodity that everyone will desire.

Therefore, immediately post pandemic, what will have value that will also be desired and valued?

Labor, food, mood enhancing drugs, fuel , ammo/weapons --- not gold.

Gold will be useless as a store of value, because physically, it will be more rare than platinum.

Gold will be useless as a store of value, because no one will want it.

A currency only backed by something that is desireable will prevail.

I predict oil and gas will become the first store of value.

If I owned a gas station, post pandemic, I would print some "gas money". then when you showed up at market what would you rather receive for your crop of tomatoes? A piece of paper guaranteeing the holder 1 oz of silver or gold? or a piece of paper guaranteeing the holder 1 gallon of gas from the local gas station?

The first money will be demand notes. Based upon a highly desired commodity like batteries or fuel. Pure and simple.

Later on, any monetary system based upon a consumable is by definition short lived, and a more permant commodity will have to be agreed upon. At that time, gold maybecome more favorable. Give it 40 years.

[GaudiaRay]

Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

See my post #207. >Hello Out There. The world is waking up to gold. The price gapped up in trading in HK. This is not a good sign. Until today, the market has never gapped and held but for one time, while the second time the market retreated to fill that secondary breakaway gap, the breakaway gap back in the high 400's. That's a solid breakaway. Secondary breakaways mean topping action, way too often. I don't know how to read this. I hope that gold will drop to 600 during trading on Monday in NYC. If not, ouch, we will get a stampede into and then a slaughtering of all those newbies, and for me, a return of which means to me "loss" of the profit that's now about to materialize as gold heads up.

Gold opened in the NY Gold Market at 604 and traded to 607 within 1/2 hour. The trading gap is between 600-601 and 604. That's 3 points +.

Be wary; be very wary. This is an unfilled trading gap. The goal is now to get away from the pressure (up) and then return to that number. So, 600 will be a magnet, even though the market performance now appears to be limitless to the upside.

[Binkerbear]

Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

I predict oil and gas will become the first store of value. -Eladdie

Eladdie does make good points but nothing to refute the "gold" case. Gold has, from the beginning of time, been accumulated for these transformational events. Certainly there is no reason not to have some kind of gas / energy holdings whether oil stocks or buried tanks of gas as part of an overall diversified survival plan ...but gold should be integral IMHO.

[GaudiaRay]

Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

See my post #207. >Hello Out There. The world is waking up to gold. The price gapped up in trading in HK. This is not a good sign. Until today, the market has never gapped and held but for one time, while the second time the market retreated to fill that secondary breakaway gap, the breakaway gap back in the high 400's. That's a solid breakaway. Secondary breakaways mean topping action, way too often. I don't know how to read this. I hope that gold will drop to 600 during trading on Monday in NYC. If not, ouch, we will get a stampede into and then a slaughtering of all those newbies, and for me, a return of which means to me "loss" of the profit that's now about to materialize as gold heads up.

Gold opened in the NY Gold Market at 604 and traded to 607 within 1/2 hour. The trading gap is between 600-601 and 604. That's 3 points +.

Be wary; be very wary. This is an unfilled trading gap. The goal is now to get away from the pressure (up) and then return to that number. So, 600 will be a magnet, even though the market performance now appears to be limitless to the upside.

Kewl call, eh? Gold is at $614-615. Be wary, very wary. These are heady moves and probably tomorrow will rise again, and then the true market will appear, which means free profits for those who can short at the high tomorrow, back down to 601. This is a nasty affair as it upsets the stable, monotonous rise in gold. But it also clears the air of the most recent newbies.

I wish I were ready to short as tomorrow is probably the day, and when I say short, I mean cover my longs and wait for 601-603, to scoop up this free 2%. But this is only for the experts. Never challenge this bull market. It will kill you with as much disregard as bird flu would.

[Binkerbear]

Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

Absolutely, GR. A quick short trade here is high probability but going long at $601 (after a quick correction) is "super" high probability.

Although gold is up over 10 % in the last month, copper and silver are both up around 30 %. I'm not sure what to think of this. Certainly bird flu and Iran would not support high copper. So either we have a huge world-wide (China, India) booming economy or the US financial system is about to come down. Which one guys ?

[sharon sanders]

Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

Dollar May Fall on Concern Slower Growth to Halt Rate Increases April 18 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may weaken for a fourth day against the euro on concern slowing growth in the world's largest economy will prompt the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates.
A government report today will probably show housing starts slowed in March, signaling higher borrowing costs may eat into consumer spending and economic expansion. The dollar yesterday dropped the most in a month against the yen and had the biggest decline in more than two weeks versus the euro as traders pared bets the Fed will increase rates twice more this year.
``The dollar may stay on the weaker side,'' said Teruhisa Tsuji, a trader in Tokyo at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd., a unit of Japan's second-largest lender by assets. ``Weaker housing data may fuel speculation the Fed is getting closer to ending its rate increases.''
The dollar was at $1.2261 per euro at 9:50 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.2250 yesterday in New York. It bought 117.95 yen from 117.81. The dollar may trade between $1.22 and $1.23 per the euro and 117 and 118.80 against the yen, Tsuji said.
Builders probably broke ground on new houses at an annual rate of 2.03 million in March, down from February's 2.12 million, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 57 economists. The forecast compares with a monthly average annual rate of 2.07 million starts last year.
Optimism among U.S. home builders fell this month to the lowest since November 2001, according to a report by the National Association of Home Builders released yesterday.
Interest-rate futures show traders are betting the Fed will increase borrowing costs by a quarter point to 5 percent May 10. The odds of another move at the Fed's June 29 meeting have dropped to 54 percent, from 58 percent on April 13.
Fed Minutes
The dollar may be supported by speculation minutes from the March 28 Fed meeting, released today, will mention the economy is still subject to inflation risk, suggesting the central bank intends to keep raising rates, said Satoru Ogasawara, a currency strategist in Tokyo at Credit Suisse Group.
``The minutes will probably mention a decline in the jobless rate is likely to raise the utilization rate of resources,'' said Ogasawara. ``That's dollar supportive.''
The U.S. currency will rise to 120 yen in a month, Ogasawara said.
The Fed must be ``vigilant'' to ensure that increases in energy and commodities prices and employment don't stoke inflation, Michael Moskow, president of the Chicago Fed bank, said yesterday. He is a non-voting member of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year.
``Inflation is currently at the upper end of the range that I feel is consistent with price stability,'' Moskow, 68, said in a speech to local business leaders in Des Moines, Iowa. ``As such, monetary policy must be vigilant.''
Iran
Demand for the dollar may decrease on concern a conflict in the Middle East will encourage purchases of the Swiss franc, which is often seen as a haven by investors during times of turmoil.
Crude oil yesterday surged to a record closing price on concern the dispute over Iran's nuclear program will disrupt oil shipments. The Swiss franc yesterday strengthened 1.4 percent, the most since Jan. 23.
``Clearly, the Fed is near the end of its interest-rate hiking cycle,'' said Greg Salvaggio, vice president of capital markets at currency-trading firm Tempus Consulting Inc. in Washington. ``We're also seeing the introduction of geopolitical risk in the market, specifically Iran,'' which is regarded as a dollar negative.

[GaudiaRay]

Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

Dollar May Fall on Concern Slower Growth to Halt Rate Increases April 18 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may weaken for a fourth day against the euro on concern slowing growth in the world's largest economy will prompt the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates.
A government report today will probably show housing starts slowed in March, signaling higher borrowing costs may eat into consumer spending and economic expansion. The dollar yesterday dropped the most in a month against the yen and had the biggest decline in more than two weeks versus the euro as traders pared bets the Fed will increase rates twice more this year.
``The dollar may stay on the weaker side,'' said Teruhisa Tsuji, a trader in Tokyo at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd., a unit of Japan's second-largest lender by assets. ``Weaker housing data may fuel speculation the Fed is getting closer to ending its rate increases.''
The dollar was at $1.2261 per euro at 9:50 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.2250 yesterday in New York. It bought 117.95 yen from 117.81. The dollar may trade between $1.22 and $1.23 per the euro and 117 and 118.80 against the yen, Tsuji said.
Builders probably broke ground on new houses at an annual rate of 2.03 million in March, down from February's 2.12 million, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 57 economists. The forecast compares with a monthly average annual rate of 2.07 million starts last year.
Optimism among U.S. home builders fell this month to the lowest since November 2001, according to a report by the National Association of Home Builders released yesterday.
Interest-rate futures show traders are betting the Fed will increase borrowing costs by a quarter point to 5 percent May 10. The odds of another move at the Fed's June 29 meeting have dropped to 54 percent, from 58 percent on April 13.
Fed Minutes
The dollar may be supported by speculation minutes from the March 28 Fed meeting, released today, will mention the economy is still subject to inflation risk, suggesting the central bank intends to keep raising rates, said Satoru Ogasawara, a currency strategist in Tokyo at Credit Suisse Group.
``The minutes will probably mention a decline in the jobless rate is likely to raise the utilization rate of resources,'' said Ogasawara. ``That's dollar supportive.''
The U.S. currency will rise to 120 yen in a month, Ogasawara said.
The Fed must be ``vigilant'' to ensure that increases in energy and commodities prices and employment don't stoke inflation, Michael Moskow, president of the Chicago Fed bank, said yesterday. He is a non-voting member of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year.
``Inflation is currently at the upper end of the range that I feel is consistent with price stability,'' Moskow, 68, said in a speech to local business leaders in Des Moines, Iowa. ``As such, monetary policy must be vigilant.''
Iran
Demand for the dollar may decrease on concern a conflict in the Middle East will encourage purchases of the Swiss franc, which is often seen as a haven by investors during times of turmoil.
Crude oil yesterday surged to a record closing price on concern the dispute over Iran's nuclear program will disrupt oil shipments. The Swiss franc yesterday strengthened 1.4 percent, the most since Jan. 23.
``Clearly, the Fed is near the end of its interest-rate hiking cycle,'' said Greg Salvaggio, vice president of capital markets at currency-trading firm Tempus Consulting Inc. in Washington. ``We're also seeing the introduction of geopolitical risk in the market, specifically Iran,'' which is regarded as a dollar negative.

All these pundits get off on short term motivations for market moves. Remember their names and then tell 'em to get the heck outta your face, next time. There are some disgusting ones, like a Gary Shilling, if you remember him, RIP hopefully. He led so many people down the wrong path.

They say nothing that I've not said and well prior to their hawking their great insights in these quotes. They should get real jobs, like working for the S&P or DJ. (I'm being facetious.)

Never lose sight of the big picture. The move in silver is expected. I know nothing about copper. I will not speak about what I don't know.

I'm now positive the housing market will crash, not just orderly decline. The reason is that the article above misses the point completely. The point is that the Fed's have lost control over the setting of the interest rate. To stem this dollar-value bleeding, they need to raise interest rates immediately. That will slam the housing market. The dollar bond holders, external to the US must be having conniptions. They've just lost 10% of their store of value in 30 days. Whoopie! We, the Americans, got the goods and paid with wooden nickels. It's actually funny.

I gotta do some real investing prep work as the gifts are now materializing. It's time to shift more of this roulette wheel outcome winnings to my pile, and if you're thinking the same thing, which I know Bink and StlBill and others are, this is the time to say "hello" to big profits (which means really very little as the place we live in is being Buswhacked and we're being shot in the foot and the heart real good.

At the end of the day, I doubt that third world labor will have risen enough to stem the tide of outward flow of manufacturing. Sad, but true.

[sharon sanders]

Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

I love to post those articles because you get so many different opinions on the same set of financial data. LOL

[kernel klink]

Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

I love to post those articles because you get so many different opinions on the same set of financial data. LOL

I thought this might be of interest:
The difference between Gold and Dollars

By Brett Steenbarger

TradingMarkets.com
April 17, 2006 9:30 AM ET

<SCRIPT language=JavaScript1.2> <!-- // function printWin(){ desktop =window.open("/print.site/Daytrading/Commentary/wmgame/-50928.cfm","print","toolbar=NO,scrollbars=yes,loca tion=no,status=no,menubar=yes,width=600,height=500 ,resizable=yes"); } function reqWin(desktopURL){ desktop =window.open(desktopURL,"name","toolbar=no,locatio n=no,status=no,menubar=no,scrollbars=auto, width=300 , height=300 , resizable=no"); } // --> </SCRIPT><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width=336 align=right><TBODY><TR><TD><NOLAYER><IFRAME marginWidth=0 marginHeight=0 src="http://ad.doubleclick.net/adi/N3061.TradingMarkets/B1781939.3;sz=336x280;ord=[88133466]?" frameBorder=0 width=336 scrolling=no height=280 BORDERCOLOR="#000000">http://ad.doubleclick.net/ad/N3061.T...z=336x280;ord=[88133466]?</IFRAME></NOLAYER><ILAYER SRC="http://ad.doubleclick.net/adl/N3061.TradingMarkets/B1781939.3;sz=336x280;ord=[88133466]?" WIDTH="336" HEIGHT="280"></ILAYER></TD></TR><TR><TD>| View Archives | Print | E-mail this page to a friend | </TD></TR><TR><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Traders live in a numerator world. Stocks fall. Gold rises. Bonds dip. Oil soars. Every day we contemplate market moves, and we measure them against a common yardstick. That yardstick--our typical denominator--is the dollar. Each index, commodity, and equity value that we follow is really a spread position, if you think about it. When we buy a stock, we are selling dollars. When we short a stock, we're taking dollars in return for our sale of the shares. We buy if we think an instrument will outperform the dollar. If we don't have that belief, we either hold our dollars or actively sell the instrument to take delivery of more dollars.
But, ah, what a difference a denominator makes. There was a time--not so long ago--when every dollar was denominated in gold. Under the gold standard, you could redeem your greenback at any time for a fixed quantity of the precious metal. The idea was that gold, as a universal store of value, would impose discipline upon governments who, otherwise, might be tempted to artificially inflate their wealth by printing currency. After all, if you have a fixed amount of gold in your reserves and every dollar must be backed by a piece of that gold, you have limits to the currency you can print.
Just as a little exercise, let's return to that bygone era and imagine that an ounce of gold is our denominator. Instead of measuring trading performance against dollars (which rise and fall with the exigencies of printing presses, interest rates, and the like), let's use the precious metal as our yardstick. What would our financial world look like today?
Below are the results for three major world stock indices since January, 1998. For ease of comparison, I set the initial value of each index at 1000. As you can see, all three indices have lost value in the past eight years. Indeed, the S&P 500 Index--which has been broaching bull market highs in dollar terms--is actually making multiyear lows vis a vis our universal store of value.

What is apparent from the chart is that concern over whether you have been weighted in American, German, or Japanese stocks has meant relatively little compared to the overall weakness among all of them. In fact, the bull market since 2003 has barely budged the averages in gold terms.

And how about that stellar performer, oil? How has it fared vis a vis the changed denominator? Below I've charted the same time period, again setting the initial value of West Texas Intermediate crude to 1000.

Sure enough, it's still a bull market--which tells us that oil's price strength is not simply an artifact of dollar weakness.

But, wait a minute. It's not just dollar weakness. Since January, 1999, the Euro has risen only about 2.5% versus the dollar. The Yen since January, 1998 has appreciated relative to the dollar by about 11.9% on the cash market. These hardly offset the effect of changing denominators. Just as the world equity indices are down vs. gold, so are the world's currencies.
What can we make of this? Quite simply this: Financial assets are being trounced by hard assets. Relative to good, hard things--like oil and gold--bonds, stocks, and currencies are in major declines. Yes, we can say there is a commodity boom. Another way of looking at it, however--one that used to represent economic orthodoxy--is that financial assets are no longer adequately serving as storehouses of value.
Now suppose in this situation, I were to approach you and say, "Hey, forget about those hard assets. Give me your 1000 dollars today and I'll give you even more dollars ten years down the road." How many dollars would you need to make that deal worthwhile, especially as you see dollars--and dollar denominated assets--buying less and less of the world's things? Chances are, you'd have to receive quite a rate of return on your dollars to offset the opportunity risks of putting your money into "things". And as dollars and stocks fell more and more against those things, you'd need better and better terms to justify committing your funds to those financial assets. You'd demand higher interest rates, and you'd demand higher dividends and earnings yields (earnings per dollar of stock price). So bonds and stocks would continue to fall until they represented real value relative to those competing "things".
What a difference a denominator makes.
Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D. is Associate Clinical Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at SUNY Upstate Medical University in Syracuse, NY and author of The Psychology of Trading (Wiley, 2003). As Director of Trader Development for Kingstree Trading, LLC in Chicago, he has mentored numerous professional traders and coordinated a training program for traders. An active trader of the stock indexes, Brett utilizes statistically-based pattern recognition for intraday trading. Brett does not offer commercial services to traders, but maintains an archive of articles and a trading blog at www.brettsteenbarger.com and a blog of market analytics at www.traderfeed.blogspot.com. His book, Enhancing Trader Development, is due for publication this fall (Wiley).

[sharon sanders]

Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

Klink - EXCELLENT POST. I have never recommended currencies for investment for 3 main reasons: 1) the return is inferior compared to other assets 2) the volitility 3) the lack of transparency in the market.

What backs the currencies is the williness of the central banks to manipulate/encourage the purchase and sale of said currencies world wide. In the past, many countries, on occasion, have been encouraged to buy dollars to keep the dollar strong.

In the end, the strongest currencies are from the countries that have the best balance sheet, the most assets, the greatest cash flow, and the best military to protect them.

[GaudiaRay]

Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

From a blog, Richard Russell on "hope":
III. Hope

HOPE: It's human nature to be optimistic. It's human nature to hope. Furthermore, hope is a component of a healthy state of mind. Hope is the opposite of negativity. Negativity in life can lead to anger, disappointment, and depression. After all, if the world is a negative place, what's the point of living in it? To be negative is to be anti-life.

Ironically, it doesn't work that way in the stock market. In the stock market hope is a hindrence, not a help. Once you take a position in a stock, you obviously want that stock to advance. But if the stock you bought is a real value, and you bought it right, you should be content to sit with that stock in the knowledge that over time its value will out without your help, without your hoping.

So in the case of this stock, you have value on your side -- and all you need is patience. In the end, your patience will pay off with a higher price for your stock. Hope shouldn't play any part in this process. You don't need hope, because you bought the stock when it was a great value, and you bought it at the right time.

Any time you find yourself hoping in this business, the odds are that you are on the wrong path -- or that you did something stupid that should be corrected.

Unfortunately, hope is a money-loser in the investment business. This is counterintuitive but true. Hope will keep you riding a stock that is headed down. Hope will keep you from taking a small loss and, instead, allow that small loss to develop into a large loss.

In the stock market hope gets in the way of reality, hope gets in the way of common sense. One of the first rules in investing is "don't take the big loss." In order to do that, you've got to be willing to take a small loss.

If the stock market turns bearish, and you're staying put with your whole position, and you're HOPING that what you see is not really happening -- then welcome to poverty city. In this situation, all your hoping isn't going to save you or make you a penny. In fact, in this situation hope is the devil that bids you to sit -- while your portfolio of stocks goes down the drain.

In the investing business my suggestion is that you avoid hope. Forget the siren, hope; instead, embrace cold, clear reality.

Copyright 2006 John Mauldin. All Rights Reserved

If you would like to reproduce any of John Mauldin's E-Letters you must include the source of your quote and an email address (John@FrontlineThoughts.com)

[GaudiaRay]

Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

The S&P and NYSE and the other two stock indices, and the Nikkei all recite the line from The Wizard, "Ignore the Little Old Man Behind the Curtain". They ignore gold and oil. They're in "let's pretend" land.

Fauci and Gerberding are flat out misrepresenters. There is NOT A SINGLE CHANGE THAT IS OBVIOUS OR EVEN SUBTLE THAT POINTS TO THE FACT THAT H5N1 IS ANYTHING OTHER THAN AS IT HAS BEEN. The virus is evolving and migrating (through smugglers...with that key of smack in some tourist's or bird's belly...what idiots those two are). The risk remains the same. Due to passage of time and failure to become pandemic, these two clowns now say the risk is less. Greater fools exist only at higher levels in the White House.

Now in Sudan, and moving. If this year or next year or the year after doesn't bring us the magic, lower temperature formula, I'll be stunned and surprised. The virus has expanded territrory. It has an enormous 3rd world in which to recombine. Over time, the few who are listening amongst the public will become jaded, and the leadership will think the volcano has gone dormant. Who are they kidding? Yes, it's tough to remain vigilent and conscious when the action is not in town. This is a "gift"; a window to think hard and collectively about the issues.

Plenty will be fully exposed when the musical chairs game stops. Right now, the music is still playing. Some still watch and wait for the sound to stop. My friend and her 2 daughters are on their way to Europe for 2 months and they think this concern is a joke. I tend to agree with them; but just because the Lion is not threatening at the moment does not make the animal any less of a lion.

Meanwhile, it's "ignore the lion"; it's business as usual.

[GaudiaRay]

Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

There's an obvious short squeeze in the silver market. Shades of the Hunt Brothers. Silver's target is $25.00. Silver is now at nearly $14.00.

What will probably happen is that gold will start to leap up because it sure doesn't want to rise on its own. Silver will pull it up due to this short squeeze. The markets will not get very volatile, up and down. The bigger money will be made now.

[sharon sanders]

Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

"One of the first rules in investing is "don't take the big loss." In order to do that, you've got to be willing to take a small loss."

True, True, True. You can not be greedy.

If we are talking metals for exchange purposes, I like silver coins better than gold because gold is too expensive for most.