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  • Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

    Back from Egypt about 3 hours ago.

    Here's the skinny, and if you're long gold, you're on the right side:

    On the way home, I was given the Int'l Herald Tribune for Tues and Weds, April 4 & 5. These are the relevant headlines from that publication:

    How Asians keep a lid on U.S. rates
    Dollar under presure as Emirates lean to euro
    Gold futures fall as metal's price puts off jewelers
    Bird flu threatens world insurers' bonds

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED; NOT ONE WHIT OF THE ORIGINAL LOGIC.

    What's really happening:
    This is a major paradigm shift. The dollar was going to go to hell in a handbasket, and it is going to hell in a handbasket, and it will get a lot worse as soon as drunkeon whore, the US dollar, gets slammed up against the interest rate wall. The rest of the world is now about to screw it mercilessly.

    If you're long the dollar and not hedged internationally, I think you're incapable of understanding international politics and economics, and you will get, irrespective of what you deserve, exactly what I have been saying you're about to get.

    Let's just review the deal clencher, the thin membrane of dollar purity which has been banged on as if it were a kettle drum, the invincible dollar, the almighty dollar. BS. Bigtime BS, but a helluva delusion, and I know that Fla1 still wishes to be deluded, as well as many who won't get their backsides outta Dodge to look around and sense what's now happening...paradigm shift.

    Firstly, the non bird flu scenario that drives me and will drive me now that I'm back to flee to gold (in the next retrenchment if not in part this week) even further than I have done: Russia, the UAE, Iran, Venezuela (if it could and as it can), and announced yesterday, China, will now spread their invetment capital, ceteris paribus (non pandemic time period) into Euros and heaven knows what else. Meanwhile, Japan moves away from zero interest, which means it too becomes a competitor for international investor's capital.

    The paradigm shift is best phrased as the straw that will break the camel's back. As the lenders who have supported the dollar will reduce their purchases of Treasuries (a stunning 44% of the last Treasury sale was placed outside the USA, against an average of 35%). This will cause the price of US borrowing to rise. This will be seen as necessary and unsustainable. The drunkard needs her drink. The phrase when I was younger was "coke whore".

    Fear will be factored into the price of interest, and to the gold holder's advantage, will be factored into the price of gold, as those lenders look to insure their positions with at least some gold to diversify and hedge the US dollar position risk.

    The gold market is frankly tiny. The sabre rattling words by the cabal of national banks who say, "we're gonna dump gold...lots of it", and the additional boogeymen of the gold producers/jewelry consumers saying, "oh, oh, look! our production costs are dropping, so we can open up a flood of new mines" and "oh, oh, look! gold prices are rising so high we jewelers are now wary against buying more gold, so we will wait and the prices will collapse."

    These folks, above described, are idiots, each and all of them. End of story.
    Fear is a powerful motivator. The idiots have shot their cannons, all of them. They have only one more action to take, and that will lead to their coup d' grace; they will stupidly sell the gold they've said they would. It will be absorbed without even a burp into other national banks (hi to those listed above). And the selling cabal will be seen to be a paper tiger.

    The result will be panic buying to the upside as soon as they're shown to be paper tigers. They won't be able to stop the remonitization of gold.

    Trust me folks, I don't like to see this happen one bit. I like holding paper and bank accounts and assets not buffetted by inflation and deflationary waves. I hate to be out of control. Others fail to see the future in the way I do...this ain't ego. I'm truly scared when I don't know what's about to happen. It's very costly to me to know; but it's more costly for me not to know.

    Gold this early morning on April 6, 2006 is at 593, spot. In Sept I said it would be at 600 by Dec 31. It's late. So what!

    On the flip side, I'm gonna restate what I've said elsewhere. The consequence of this shift of paradigms is that all the store of value in the US and elsewhere in the world will be under attack by gold re-valuation. All the life efforts, the savings of the majority of humans, will continue to erode and IMO will be destroyed probably down to 15% of what it was worth 6 months ago. All the sweat and tears and hopes are now being destroyed for all those who do not believe in Mamman, at least for this "secular bull market" move.

    (Bink, it's outrageous for anyone today to stand up and say, "oh gee, we're now entering a secular bull gold market." That's very old news. It's been a secular bull market for 3 years minimum. The bear was exhausted, effete, and has died years ago.)

    Secondly, bird flu. here's the refrain, from the IHT, "If you're looking for a factor that could really, I mean really, blow out spreads, then this is it," said Robert Haines, an analys at CreditSights. "It's really scary, and people aren't taking any notice." "The life insurance sector would face multiple ratings downgrades and failures," Haines said last week, without naming companies that may be affected or specifying how much spreads may widen. "It may not be likely to happen but the odds certainly aren't zero. The loss would be enormous."

    As I've said, bird flu is nature's event. We humans of the first world can do nothing but monitor the happenings, and all along, we can forecast the consequences along a wide chart-scale of risk.

    Not one of us thinks it, pandemic, won't happen, the senior scientist from St Jude's now excepted. The consequence will drive gold sky high.

    I'm exhausted; it's 1 am. I've been up 21 hours of the last 25. More at another time.

    Just buy the gold you want and sit with it and then think hard about what I've just posted. The paradigm shift is here; it's now news. It's time to quit saying that the dollar is the safe currency. That's hogwash. The only things left are fuel and precious metals. Fuel will spike and collapse. PM's will rise and stay there as the only option to store value.

    Comment


    • Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

      Welcome back GR

      Comment


      • Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

        Quoting myself, below:
        1. This will happen immediately (this week).
        > I will turn to commodity positions in gold shortly, on the upside, to double the position held in physicals, on a ratio of 2:1 (commodity / physical).

        2. My continuing sense of this chart pattern....It is urgent.
        > The next move will be up, as I said before, in a rise that will be relatively unnoticeable and very powerful. It's like filling the bathtub from the bottom, unnoticeable yet very evident that something's happening.

        3. The parabola continues, now wider and therefore a stronger base than I expected. This is the BOTTOM SECTION of the parabola on a yearly scale, using Kitco spot gold chart.
        >I cannot at this time "see" clearly the long term chart direction, after the failure of the parabola. The parabola may still be in existence, but it's a large leap of imagination to see it extend sideways in time, and then loop up.

        Additional refrain: The spot gold price is going to 886, the prior high, or thereabouts. That's nearly a 50% unleveraged move. This will happen well before the end of this year, 2006.

        Once the parabola moves forward in time, the marginal rate of increase will increase. The dollar, in essence, will be in a free fall. The much higher numbers of 1500 and 3000 will become mantras for the gamblers and "advisors".

        The dollar "run for safety" should not be discounted, but the failure to hold value against gold will turn away many governments and major investors as they finally figure out the tea leaves' message. Fl1 had the concept but it won't hold as now, interest rates will be compelled higher due to erosion in trust in the dollar. That's not factored into her thinking.

        I will comment elsewhere on inflation/deflation. Stock prices are acting like those of 1923 Germany. I see it and feel it. It's not the subject of this thread.


        Originally posted by GaudiaRay
        I have sold no position in gold. I accumulated no additional position in gold. Neither, since I last posted.

        Instead, I see the same scenario. $100,000 today will be worth $300,000 within 3 weeks of a flu breakout. It may be worth $600,000, equally and with no great stretch of the imagination.

        That is an unleveraged hedge for every $100,000 you invest.

        If leveraged in the commodity market, you can expect a double return to those numbers above.

        One must have strong cajones to play out this scenario. The drop from 570+ to 535+ is not really much, but for the feint of heart, this was quite distressing.

        The market failed to continue its parabolic rise. Instead, it is trading as I also see, around the 550 price, above and below.

        The next move will be up, as I said before, in a rise that will be relatively unnoticeable and very powerful. It's like filling the bathtub from the bottom, unnoticeable yet very evident that something's happening.

        Silver continues to make new highs. That will cause gold to join, and the territory gold will cover, in terms of price, will be quite impressive, leaving the non-investors scratching their heads, wondering if that price move could be transpiring.

        The movement around 550 is a commonly recognizeable chart pattern, for the short term, measured on a monthly basis. I cannot at this time "see" clearly the long term chart direction, after the failure of the parabola. The parabola may still be in existence, but it's a large leap of imagination to see it extend sideways in time, and then loop up.

        I'll not add nor reduce positions. I have all the physical gold I want now. I will turn to commodity positions in gold shortly, on the upside, to double the position held in physicals, on a ratio of 2:1 (commodity / physical).

        I'm not concerned for the first 4 weeks of the pandemic in terms of trading ability. I am concerned during the 6th through 12th weeks of each cycle.

        Further, as I do not speculate, I will not buy puts or calls.
        And lastly, Florida1, you ain't right. I am. What I said in posts above came true, and this is now the obvious pattern.

        Comment


        • Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

          It's great that you're back, GR. As usual, I'm in absolute agreement; Gold is in a relentless move upward. I probably misstated the fund mgr on CNBC; he probably said that 'we have entered', not that 'we are entering'. I'm not sure how long it takes to determine a secular trend for the technicians. Anyway, it is only now that the public is getting involved in this thing much like getting involved in the Nasdaq stocks in 1990. That trend ran wild for 10 more years. Just last night, media stock guru Cramer claimed that he'd now jumped on the gold bandwagon. (Note: He loves Venezuelan gold producer Crystallex [KRY] which has the largest deposit of gold in the world). This trend won't end until the last critic of gold (a0 ?) throws in the towel. Then again, maybe this time it truly will be different. I can't beleive the world operates on fiat currencies (without a gold backing) anyway. So the world's major reserve currency is a "drunken whore", there is huge Asian demand for gold, and the whole world (bird flu, Iran, N. Korea) seems on the edge. [Even France looks to be on a precipice] I would say a 15 % position is conservative at this point !

          Comment


          • Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

            Welcome back GR!

            You realize, of course, that making a case against the always and enduring value of the dollar, and of individuals' dollar-denominated cash holdings, is like making a case against their religion.

            That being said, your statement about recent moves into the Euro interests me. In the past few days we have seen riots in the streets of Paris provoked in part by hooliganism, but also by those who do not wish to see the French economy opened up to the realities of the market. Euro nations suffer under a tremendous pressure to maintain their way of life at any cost (which is akin to trying to run GM or Chrysler under the load of worker health care and pension assurances, and we've seen how well that's worked). French elections happen in a year. Other Euro nations have similar problems. Do you think that the Euro can hold and retain its attractiveness vs. the dollar, going forward, in this environment?
            Yes. This is political business, not economic alone. We have a hemmorhaging US government and an EU that has continuing growth. The US is let's face it finished. It can't compete against the brain trusts of India and China. End of story. It can't produce as cheaply. It will be around for a while as was Rome, but it's now speeding to the sidelines of history. I don't see it 100% to 0%. I see it 100% to now 85% and slipping quickly to 70 and 60%. The US game is over. We're smart, that is the few who are; we're also as dumb as Egyptians too. One more Republican admin cycle and the game is totally up. We lost. The dollar will show that shortly.
            Last edited by sharon sanders; January 1, 2007, 01:45 PM.

            Comment


            • Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

              Gold spot market reached 597 today and is back at 592 in NY trading. There was a breakaway gap that is now being filled, vis a vis NY gold. The prior interday high was about 592. So this is good news. It's filling the gap and should probably stall here a short while as that gap gets filled "for sure".

              Then as it's doing, it will rise like a toy boat in a filling bathtub.

              All who did not buy gold at 550-570 or lower, shame on you. You're in denial.

              Comment


              • Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

                Just wanted to say hi and glad to find GR and Bink etc. I've been watching for a few weeks now and thought I would register and maybe start posting a bit. I've given up on the other forum. I like the atmosphere here. There seems to be a good deal of mutual respect + real debate. I've been accumulating the yellow metal since 2001 and especially this last 6 months or so. I'll buy more in the dips. I too am convinced that the US is crumbling. It won't happen all at once, although a pandemic would speed things up. The cracks are everywhere and coming to the surface. Everything happens faster these days. The US rose faster and will fall faster than Rome....like a flower of the field that blossoms for a day and then withers, to be consumed by the fires of history. Morally and spiritually bankrupt, economic bankruptcy will surely follow.

                Comment


                • Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

                  GR: Heads up. This article is 98% bull****. This is what the public is reading about gold now. Duh? Why? Duh. The contributors sound like WHO officials and spokespeople when BF started getting a bit more active. They're always ignorant and conjecturing. Dumb, and dumber.

                  Gold Prices Reach 25-Year High
                  NY Times
                  By VIKAS BAJAJ
                  Published: April 6, 2006

                  The price of gold touched $600 an ounce today, rising to a level not seen in 25 years as investors poured money into precious metals.

                  By the late afternoon, gold futures for delivery in June had retreated slightly to $599.70, up $7.20, or 1.2 percent, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Silver rose 34.2 cents, or 2.9 percent, to $12.15 an ounce, its highest level since 1983. Just a year ago, gold was trading at $436.50 and silver at $7.41.

                  Commodities experts have offered several explanations for the rally, including the economic rise of China and India, which are both big purchasers of gold jewelry, concerns about inflation and persistently high oil prices. Recent statements by the Zimbabwean government that it might seek to take control of foreign-owned mines have also stoked concerns about supply disruptions.

                  But some long-time analysts said the gold prices have been driven up by speculative buying by investors who have been drawn to the commodity by its rising price.

                  "It's feeding off itself," said Jessica Cross, chief executive of Virtual Metals, a research firm based in London. "There are vast walls of money going into all the commodities, and gold and silver are benefiting."

                  Ms. Cross, who has followed gold for 20 years, and other analysts say many of the traditional factors that drive the price of gold do not support the current rally. They note that though higher energy prices have driven up overall inflation, which gold is often used to protect against, price increases remain modest by historical standards.

                  Not surprisingly, investors in gold say that they are not convinced that the Federal Reserve and other world central banks have not done enough to address inflation. Policy makers, they say, focus wrongly just on the core rate of consumer prices, running at an annual rate of 2.1 percent, which excludes energy and food costs. Overall consumer prices are up 3.6 percent.

                  One gold investor, Jay R. Feuerstein, president of Xenon Capital Management, also noted that by the standards of the late 1970's, when gold prices surpassed $800 an ounce, the metal remains cheap. "You have to look at gold as a storehouse of value, a storehouse of expectations for what money can buy," he said.

                  Other experts suggest that the price has risen as it has become easier for investors to buy gold through a slate of new exchange traded and mutual funds that specialize in metals.

                  "You don't have to insure the gold, you don't have to be saddled with storing and insuring it and safeguarding it," said Karen A. Wallace, a precious metals mutual fund analyst at Morningstar in Chicago.

                  The World Gold Council, a trade group for mining companies, estimates that demand for gold as an investment increased 26 percent in 2005, with exchange traded funds buying 53 percent more of the metal by tonnage. Demand for gold used in jewelry, however, increased 5 percent.

                  Since then, Ms. Cross of Virtual Metals, said the rise in prices has started to cut into demand from jewelers in India and Dubai because many customers cannot afford it at current prices. Jewelers have resorted to pushing relatively cheaper diamonds and other gems to reduce the gold content of their products. "There are quite a lot of guys holding off, and the wholesalers are saying it's quiet," she said.

                  Comment


                  • Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

                    Morally and spiritually bankrupt, economic bankruptcy will surely follow ..KK.

                    Kernel - Welcome ! You obviously have found your new home here.

                    Please note the thread on "put" buying and shorting.

                    Comment


                    • Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

                      Kernel Klink, Welcome and thanks for joining. We debate fairly seriously but we stay friendly. In fact, now, many of us know each other outside of this forum. We encourage debate, but we do not allow any kind of bashing here at FT. Thanks for appreciating the atmosphere.

                      Great comments!!!

                      Comment


                      • Hi all....

                        Been a while since I checked in....

                        My Pandemic flu and Business Continuity Roundtable was stumbling, so I reshuffled the deck, concentrated it in time and put some spin on it....

                        Iiiiiiittttttttttssssssss baaaaaaaaack.

                        Anyway. I've been watching the options.....I split my purchases, basically 2/3 Jan '07 and 1/3 Jan '08......

                        RTH is still the hottest option as far as return.......I know....you don't think the discounters will fall, but everything else will and they'll go with 'em at least until I get out.

                        I just released my next batch of gold holdings for the next foray....

                        But I'm riding Gold hard......

                        Welcome back GR.....

                        Comment


                        • Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

                          Originally posted by kernel klink
                          Just wanted to say hi and glad to find GR and Bink etc. I've been watching for a few weeks now and thought I would register and maybe start posting a bit. I've given up on the other forum. I like the atmosphere here. There seems to be a good deal of mutual respect + real debate. I've been accumulating the yellow metal since 2001 and especially this last 6 months or so. I'll buy more in the dips. I too am convinced that the US is crumbling. It won't happen all at once, although a pandemic would speed things up. The cracks are everywhere and coming to the surface. Everything happens faster these days. The US rose faster and will fall faster than Rome....like a flower of the field that blossoms for a day and then withers, to be consumed by the fires of history. Morally and spiritually bankrupt, economic bankruptcy will surely follow.
                          Comparing the USD as a store of value to the Egyptian Pound or the Ukrainian currency (ruble?) is not a fair comparison...not that you're making it, Kernal.

                          The fair comparison is between, yes shock of all shocks, the CH yuan, the JP yen, the EU euro, the AU dollar, the NZ dollar, the UK pound, and the Swiss pound...and on the sidelines, gauging all, are the 2 precious metals (I don't count platinum as it dropped its ratio when it became industrial; I never met a person who bought platinum as a store of value).

                          If you wish, present an argument for investing in any of these as safe stores of value.
                          Filters:
                          -- which country has the biggest current deficit?
                          -- which country has the biggest deficit per capita?
                          -- which country has the best, sustainable growth prospects?
                          -- which country can take a BF hit and maintain close to its current economic activities?
                          -- more filters please.... here...

                          Comment


                          • Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

                            My posting on the ex most popular flu blog, earlier today. The challenge was that I said $600 by Dec end. It's now 2nd week of April almost and still no $600... $597 in the spot metal, but no $600.

                            After you read this, please reflect yourself on what will hold value. I can't identify another choice that meets my need for ease of ability exit position as well as to capture this upcoming windfall due to economic change (it being gold that I've identified as the winner, though silver has risen 20% in just two months.)

                            BTW, before you read this, I'd like to announce publicly, this price move is just starting. The reaction of my best friend, smartest guy I know, as he pursues his biz activities, when I said gold was nearly $600, yesterday, was, "It's crazy. It's just crazy!" We're safe. The public's not yet interested in this market.
                            GR

                            Dear Friend,
                            The game here is to win by knowing direction.
                            Sorry. You need a clean shot.
                            I need a philosophy that explains why I should do what I do. I stick to that because that I believe is the winning philosophy.
                            I said gold would be at 600 by December. It moved in that direction. You know what that means? It means I made 20% on my money, in 3 months. Got that point? If you chose to remain conservative (which means based on my reading of reality, economically suicidal), you earned 3% max in a bank investment over an entire year, which is 1% while I made 15-25%. Got that point?

                            This is about making money; not about clean shots. People gamble on houses, on interest rates, on company earnings capacities. I gamble on the store of value. I want my store of value to grow, which is a direct path, instead of circuitous via housing, bonds, equities. I want the economic power and I want it to stay full and expanding.

                            Gold is moving up; our friends, you included, didn't say that. They said, diversify, or worse, they said, pshah. I win, won, and will win very big, bigger than you are able to wrap your mind around it appears, due to something horrible happening in the world vis a vis the US dollar.

                            I will ride that wave. Bird flu will be the coup d grace to most currencies. All other stores of value I can see but for last mile commodities, will tumultuously collapse.

                            Now, as to timing, I'm tickled pink I'm right. I made more each day while on vacation due to this rise than I spent on the entire 2 week vacation for 2. I love that thought.

                            Now, you see, I'd like to earn in this game of gold an amount equal to my entire living expenses every month for the rest of my life. Then, I'm pleased as my risk of asset need drops to zero. How about you? You got a diversified portfolio and you got a hope to receive whatever annuities you may be getting, and when those go to hyper-inflationary hell due to bird flu on top of the major investor countries hightailing themselves outta Dodge, you may or may not wish to think of that reality. I do. I see the death knell and I want to be siddled up to the transition train. And that transition is the erosion of the dollar and all investments tied locally (within the US) to that value.

                            Here's a bit for grist mill. The current dollar value of gold's prior high, about 866 in 1981-82 is about 3000. Got that point?

                            It is irrational to think that gold will not return to that same value. Yes, it's extreme, but that will mean that the guy with the $1/2 million house may then have a $1 million house, due to hyperinflation. I'll have turned each of the same $1/2 millions into $6 million. And that's UN-LEVERAGED. That guy with the $1/2 million house? He has a mortgage to subtract. He's so **** leveraged, it's a joke. When interest rates rise, if he's not on a fixed mortgage, I expect to see him scrounging for the monthlies as he awaits hyper inflation salvation. Me? I'll be sipping a nice white Oblisk (at $5 bucks a bottle for a great table wine) in my mediphoric cave, waiting to see who will live and who will die).

                            When you can tell me with strong understanding that you can make me money like this, I'll genuflect to you. Otherwise, your opinion is like all the others who want diversification. I've diversified. I bought the world's store of value. It's fungible and convertible into everything on this planet, except love.
                            Last edited by Guest; April 7, 2006, 05:10 AM.

                            Comment


                            • Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

                              Another awesome post GR. And concerning the following:

                              I never met a person who bought platinum as a store of value ...GR.

                              Allow me to introduce myself, my name is Binkerbear.

                              And as to your friend, cincerning the gold price, "It's crazy, it's just crazy": He's right. It's crazy how low the price of gold still remains when you consider the price will have to multiply five or six fold just to get back to the 1980 peak.

                              Comment


                              • Re: GLD A Way to Buy Gold in The Stock Market

                                GaudiaRay - You know that in this public forum and as an owner here, I have to be conservative in what I say. However, I do leave hints. On March 8, 2006 at 7:38 pm I posted the following after gold futures for April delivery fell to $ 544.30/ounce.

                                <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=635 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>"Since the "consensus" is that gold will go down, this period is probably a buying opportunity with BF spreading. Gold will "jump" in price, initially, when BF goes H2H efficient, sustained and verified."

                                http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...p?t=144&page=5 post #138

                                Any more questions?



                                </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Gold will go higher.
                                Last edited by sharon sanders; April 8, 2006, 01:09 PM.

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