The pandemic’s true death toll: millions more than official counts - excess deaths thread - incl. excess deaths from all causes

[Shiloh]

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00104-8

18 January 2022
The pandemic’s true death toll: millions more than official counts
Countries have reported some five million COVID-19 deaths in two years, but global excess deaths are estimated at double or even quadruple that figure.
David Adam

Last year’s Day of the Dead marked a grim milestone. On 1 November, the global death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic passed 5 million, official data suggested. It has now reached 5.5 million. But that figure is a significant underestimate. Records of excess mortality — a metric that involves comparing all deaths recorded with those expected to occur — show many more people than this have died in the pandemic.

Working out how many more is a complex research challenge. It is not as simple as just counting up each country’s excess mortality figures. Some official data in this regard are flawed, scientists have found. And more than 100 countries do not collect reliable statistics on expected or actual deaths at all, or do not release them in a timely manner.

Demographers, data scientists and public-health experts are striving to narrow the uncertainties for a global estimate of pandemic deaths. These efforts, from both academics and journalists, use methods ranging from satellite images of cemeteries to door-to-door surveys and machine-learning computer models that try to extrapolate global estimates from available data...

[Mary Wilson]

Comment: Positive in-home Covid tests are not being reported in most areas.

[sharon sanders]

Comment: Positive in-home Covid tests are not being reported in most areas.

Agree.

[Mary Wilson]

You should report your at-home Covid test results, experts say — here’s how

Published Thu, Jan 6 20229:00 AM EST

Earlier this week, the U.S. reported a record 1 million new daily Covid cases — and that might only be the tip of the iceberg.

That’s due, in part, to the skyrocketing number of at-home Covid tests that have been sold since the virus’ highly infectious omicron variant arrived in the U.S. last month. Clinics and doctors’ offices are required by law to report Covid test results to state and local public health officials, but people who take at-home tests aren’t — and many of those test results don’t get reported.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/06/how-to-report-at-home-covid-test-results-to-local-health-agencies.html

[Emily]

I wouldn't report my sore throat, (not that I would bother taking a test for a sore throat or cold in the first place), and hope anyone that comes into contact with me keeps their results to themselves, too.

"Underreported case numbers could cause health agencies to prematurely recommend loosening their Covid restrictions, like masking or social distancing guidance, which could potentially put other peoples' lives at risk."

Restrictions are harming people, too. I think we need less public health 'experts' and more treating doctors, nurses, etc. now that the pandemic is ending.

[sharon sanders]

from Virology blog: https://virologydownunder.com/excess...with-covid-19/


Excess deaths align with COVID-19


Posted onMay 7, 2023
Author
Ian M Mackay, PhD (EIC)
Leave a comment

There are minimisers who spread misinformation, like butter on hot toast. And yes, it can sink in and spread further. One of these piles of melted fat ridiculously claims that excess deaths align with the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. It takes a Herculean level of deliberate denial to skip over the true alignment here – the one with waves of COVID-19 disease. Let’s explore another piece of evidence that further cools the toast (I’ve gone too far with this, haven’t I?); Australia. Vaccination was associated with fewer deaths


A person on Twitter, in response to a graph I made showing that COVID-19 hospitalisation peaks are driven by constantly renewing SARS-CoV-2 variants, said, “first wave curve concurrent with mass vaccination it seems”.

So let’s look at that claim.

In Australia, a phased COVID-19 vaccination roll-out started on the 21st of February 2021.

Data from the COVID-19 Mortality Working Group at the Actuaries Digital arm of the Actuaries Institute Australia show that during Australian lockdown periods, deaths were below what was predicted for the period when vaccination was ongoing. This is shown by the blue-grey line dipping below the zero horizon in the figure below.


Image from Twitter, posted by @KarenCutter and presented at the blog – COVID-19 Mortality Working Group: Confirmation of 20,000 excess deaths for 2022 in Australia.

This was a time when borders were closed to most travellers, and those who did arrive were placed into quarantine at the border. Travel was also mostly restricted between the States and Territories within Australia. In fact, during these closures, excess deaths fell well below the expected levels, especially around winter 2020 and 2021 when influenza viruses had also been shut out by the absence of infected travellers and internal travel.

As soon as vaccines were available locally (this lagged other parts of the world due to political disorganization), Australia began vaccinating its population en masse.

Over 80% of Australians over 12 years of age had received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine by mid-November 2021. Image from Twitter, posted by @KarenCutter and presented at the blog – COVID-19 Mortality Working Group: Confirmation of 20,000 excess deaths for 2022 in Australia.
During this time of mass vaccination, there was no signal of excess death due to vaccination. However, when international borders began opening up, starting from the 21st of October 2021, then at a much large scale on the 21st of February 2022, the influx of inevitably infected cases and then hospitalisations began to increase. See the graph below for a few key time points.
It’s shown very clearly by data presented in the first two images above, that excess deaths were below the expected level during the vaccination period. However, once the “let it rip” phase began, excess deaths began to occur in proportion to the wild and widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

There most definitely was a new cause of above-average deaths, and, for at least half of those with obvious data, its name was SARS-CoV-2.

To prevent this level of “excess” death from becoming part of a revised baseline of death in the future, we could do things to prevent the transmission of respiratory viruses like SARS-CoV-2, influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human metapneumovirus (hMPV) and others and to reduce the dose of virus, if we do manage to get infected. Those goals could be achieved by an aggregate of:

• Vaccination
• Purifying the air in places where people – including children – congregate
• Wearing tight-fitting N95/P2 masks (also called ‘respirators’)

[sharon sanders]

Also please see:


J Glob Health . Changes in all-cause and cause-specific excess mortality before and after the Omicron outbreak of COVID-19 in Hong Kong

Acta Biomed . Correlation between relative age-standardized mortality rates and COVID-19 mortality over time in Italy

Western Pac Surveill Response J . Using an online calculator to describe excess mortality in the Philippines during the COVID-19 pandemic

Is there a Link between the 2021 COVID-19 Vaccination Uptake in Europe and 2022 Excess All-Cause Mortality?

Rev Bras Epidemiol . Excess mortality from all causes during the COVID-19 pandemic in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

France - Covid-19: third cause of death in 2020, when the other major causes of death are falling

BMC Public Health . Excess mortality and the COVID-19 pandemic: causes of death and social inequalities

Am J Public Health . Excess Mortality From Non-COVID-19 Causes During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 2020-2021

Circulation . Risk of Myocarditis After Sequential Doses of COVID-19 Vaccine and SARS-CoV-2 Infection by Age and Sex

Journal of Medical Viroligy - Excess risk for acute myocardial infarction mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic

UK: UKHSA and ONS Release Estimates of Excess Deaths During Summer of 2022

The Rollout of COVID-19 Booster Vaccines is Associated With Rising Excess Mortality in New Zealand (Working Papers in Economics from University of Waikato)

Alberta saw 'significant increase' in excess deaths during the pandemic, especially among young people: report

Exclusive: The pushback against WHO's imminent COVID-19 excess deaths

W.H.O. - 14.9 million excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 + video analysis - May 5, 2022

Eurosurv. COVID-19 mortality, excess mortality, deaths per million and infection fatality ratio, Belgium, 9 March 2020 to 28 June 2020

[sharon sanders]

Please see:

CIDRAP- Excess COVID-19 deaths in veterans similar to general population

[sharon sanders]

Excess deaths, new UK data

[Pathfinder]

Methods for estimating the excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic


19 May 2023 | Technical document

...
Download (2 MB)

Overview


The World Health Organization (WHO) has been tracking the impact of COVID-19 as the pandemic has evolved over time.

While aggregate COVID-19 case and death numbers are being reported to WHO, they do not always provide a complete picture of the health burden attributable to COVID-19. In general, reported death numbers under-estimate the number of lives lost due to the pandemic, there are several reasons for this. They miss those who died without testing, they are contingent on the country correctly defining COVID as the cause-of-death and they miss the increases in other deaths that are related to the pandemic leading to overwhelmed health systems or patients avoiding care. A few countries have experienced lower than expected total deaths during the pandemic due to reduced contact and reduced mobility, which have led to reduced infectious disease related mortality as well as reduced transport and injury related fatalities. Reported COVID-19 death numbers do not account for this.

In light of the challenges posed by using reported data on COVID-19 cases and deaths, excess mortality is considered a more objective and comparable measure that accounts for both the direct and indirect impacts of the pandemic.

This document provides details of the updated methodology applied to produce the estimates of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic for a 24-month period (January 2020 to December 2021) at global, regional and national levels.


https://www.who.int/publications/m/i...id-19-pandemic

[Pathfinder]

Estimation of Excess Mortality in Germany During 2020-2022

Christof Kuhbandner • Matthias Reitzner

Published: May 23, 2023

DOI: 10.7759/cureus.39371

Peer-Reviewed

Abstract

Background
This study estimates the burden of COVID-19 on mortality in Germany. It is expected that many people have died because of the new COVID-19 virus who otherwise would not have died. Estimating the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality by the number of officially reported COVID-19-related deaths has been proven to be difficult due to several reasons. Because of this, a better approach, which has been used in many studies, is to estimate the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic by calculating the excess mortality for the pandemic years. An advantage of such an approach is that additional negative impacts of a pandemic on mortality are covered as well, such as a possible pandemic-induced strain on the healthcare system.

Methods
To calculate the excess mortality in Germany for the pandemic years 2020 to 2022, we compare the reported number of all-cause deaths (i.e., the number of deaths independently of underlying causes) with the number of statistically expected all-cause deaths. For this, the state-of-the-art method of actuarial science, based on population tables, life tables, and longevity trends, is used to estimate the expected number of all-cause deaths from 2020 to 2022 if there had been no pandemic.

Results
The results show that the observed number of deaths in 2020 was close to the expected number with respect to the empirical standard deviation; approximately 4,000 excess deaths occurred. By contrast, in 2021, the observed number of deaths was two empirical standard deviations above the expected number and even more than four times the empirical standard deviation in 2022. In total, the number of excess deaths in the year 2021 is about 34,000 and in 2022 about 66,000 deaths, yielding a cumulated 100,000 excess deaths in both years. The high excess mortality in 2021 and 2022 was mainly due to an increase in deaths in the age groups between 15 and 79 years and started to accumulate only from April 2021 onward. A similar mortality pattern was observed for stillbirths with an increase of about 9.4% in the second quarter and 19.4% in the fourth quarter of the year 2021 compared to previous years.

Conclusions
These findings indicate that something must have happened in spring 2021 that led to a sudden and sustained increase in mortality, although no such effects on mortality had been observed during the early COVID-19 pandemic so far. Possible influencing factors are explored in the discussion.
...
Taken together, in 2021, with the beginning of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign, a higher excess mortality is observed than in the previous year in the months when large numbers of persons were vaccinated. In 2022, when large parts of the population were fully or even triple vaccinated, excess mortality is constantly increasing from spring onward, reaching a maximum of 28% in December. Such an observation is difficult to reconcile with the assumption that COVID-19 vaccinations are highly effective against COVID-19 deaths. Either the vaccinations are not as successful as expected, or the vaccinations successfully prevent COVID-19 deaths, but there are suddenly other factors than COVID-19 that lead to an increasing number of unexpected deaths in 2021 and 2022.

Regarding the latter possibility, it is interesting to consider the course of excess mortality in the different age groups shown in Figure 4. The mortality wave at the turn of the year from 2020 to 2021 is characterized by a strong age dependency, which follows the age-dependent risk of COVID-19: excess mortality is higher in older people and is completely absent in the age groups below 30 years. This pattern is substantially changing from April 2021 onward at the time when more and more people were vaccinated. Suddenly, excess mortality appears that is no longer dependent on age and even observed in young age groups. This speaks against the possibility that COVID-19 was the underlying cause. Further observe that in the younger age groups, where vaccination started later, excess mortality also starts later.
...
Taken together, one would expect that vaccinating large parts of the population should have reduced excess mortality. The contrary is observed: both excess mortality and the number of stillbirths increased with increased vaccinations. In all age groups below 80 years, excess mortality was higher in the second year and in particular much higher in the third year of the pandemic, where large parts of the population were vaccinated. These observations are surprising and further more detailed investigations from different scientific fields are strongly recommended to rule out that these safety signals occur due to the existence of unknown side effects of the COVID-19 vaccines.
...

more.... https://www.cureus.com/articles/1494...ring-2020-2022

[sharon sanders]

Regarding the above study.....this bit is very interesting....

for the 50 - 59 age group:

"This leads to the surprising result that in all pandemic years 2020 to 2022, this age group has - in contrast to all neighboring age groups - no notable excess mortality."

[sharon sanders]

I wonder how many people in Germany took the AstraZeneca vaccine. I think the EU initially approved it in January 2021.


Germany suspends use of AstraZeneca’s Covid shot for the under-60s, dealing another blow to drugmaker


PUBLISHED WED, MAR 31 2021
4:20 AM EDT
UPDATED WED, MAR 31 2021
8:07 AM EDT

snip

This decision was “based on the currently available data on the occurrence of rare but very severe thromboembolic side effects. This side effect occurred 4 to 16 days after vaccination, predominantly in people (under) 60 years of age,” it said.

With regard to the question of administering the second vaccine dose to younger people who have already received a first dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine, Germany’s vaccine committee said it would issue guidance on the matter by the end of April.

Germany’s Paul Ehrlich Institute, a federal agency and medical regulatory body, told CNBC that there had been 31 cases of blood clots in the cerebral veins — a condition known as sinus vein thrombosis or cerebral venous sinus thrombosis— reported to it as part of spontaneous recording.


more... https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/31/germ...under-60s.html


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sweden joins Germany, France, and 15 other countries in suspending AstraZeneca's vaccine over possible side effects

Grace Dean and Catherine Schuster-Bruce
Mar 16, 2021, 12:46 PM EDT

source: https://www.businessinsider.com/astr...d-clots-2021-3

[Pathfinder]

France -

Translation Google

53,800 more deaths than expected in 2022: higher excess mortality than in 2020 and 2021

Nathalie Blanpain (INSEE)

In 2022, the observed deaths significantly exceeded those expected in the absence of a Covid-19 epidemic or other unusual events such as episodes of influenza or extreme heat, etc.

Excess mortality, i.e. the excess of observed deaths over those expected, was slightly higher in 2022 (8.7%) than in 2021 (6.9%) and 2020 (7.8%). Yet, probably thanks to vaccination and herd immunity, the Covid-19 epidemic was less deadly in 2022: there were 38,300 deaths of people with Covid-19 in hospitals and establishments for elderly according to Public Health France, significantly less than in 2021 (59,100). The number of death certificates with a “Covid-19” mention is also falling. Deaths from causes other than Covid-19 therefore increased in 2022. The year uncharacteristically had two episodes of influenza, due to a late epidemic in March-April and an early one in December. Extreme heat events in summer caused more deaths in 2022 than in 2021.

Finally, the Covid-19 epidemic may have led to an increase in deaths since 2020 due to indirect effects, such as postponements of operations, a drop in screening for other diseases, etc. However, these possible impacts have not yet been measured. There may also be an interruption or pause in the downward trend in mortality at each age, but it is not yet possible to identify it.

INSEE PREMIERE
No. 1951 _
Released: 06/06/2023

STUDY DOCUMENTATION

Summary

In 2022, observed deaths exceeded those expected by 53,800
The excess of deaths measures the impact of Covid-19, but also that of other unusual events
In 2022, higher excess mortality than in 2021 and 2020
Before 55 and after 85, higher excess mortality than in 2021
Increase in the excess mortality of women and maintenance of that of men

In 2022, observed deaths exceeded those expected by 53,800

What is the level of excess mortality in 2022? To answer this question, observed deaths from all causes are compared to those expected in the absence of a Covid-19 outbreak or other unusual events, taking into account the growing and aging population, as well as than the downward trend in the risk of death at each age that could be observed before the appearance of Covid-19. The gap between observed and expected deaths measures both the direct and indirect effects of the Covid-19 epidemic, but also the effects of other unusual phenomena specific to the year 2022,

If the mortality probabilities by sex and age had fallen between 2020 and 2022 at the same rate as over the 2010-2019 period ( methods ), 621,200 deaths would have occurred in 2022, i.e. 8,000 more than in 2019 ( Figure 1 ). This increase would have been the combined result of two factors ( figure 2 ): +28,600 deaths due to the increase and aging of the population which mechanically increase the number of deaths, with a probability of dying at each age identical to that of 2019, and -20,600 deaths due to the downward trend in mortality probabilities.
...
The year 2022 finally counted 675,000 deaths, i.e. 53,800 more deaths than expected. This excess of deaths is greater in 2022 than in 2021 (42,700) and than in 2020 (48,400), years which had already experienced a high excess mortality, mainly explained by the Covid-19 epidemic. In 2022, the difference between the number of observed and expected deaths varies from 48,000 to 58,000 deaths depending on the assumption used, more or less rapid decline in mortality probabilities for the calculation of expected deaths (extension of the trends of 2005 to 2019 or from 2014 to 2019).

The excess of deaths measures the impact of Covid-19, but also that of other unusual events

Since the start of the epidemic, Public Health France (SpFrance) has been counting, for surveillance purposes, the deaths of people with Covid-19 in hospital or in establishments for the elderly, whether or not the virus is the cause. initial of death ( sources ). The Center for Epidemiology on the Medical Causes of Death (CépiDc) estimates the number of death certificates with a mention of Covid-19 for all places of death combined, including at home.

Covid-19 deaths and the gap between observed and expected deaths do not reflect the same thing ( Figure 3). Deaths linked to Covid-19, monitored by SpFrance and by CépiDc, include deaths of frail people who would have been the consequence of another cause in the absence of an epidemic (diabetes, cardiovascular disease, etc.). These deaths are not counted in the difference between the number of expected and observed deaths, because they are counted in the observed, but also in the expected. Conversely, the gap between observed and expected deaths may be increased by deaths indirectly caused by Covid-19 (following postponements of care, reduced screening, etc.), as well as by additional deaths due to intense flu or high heat.containment (reduction of road accidents, certain contagious diseases thanks to the reduction of contacts, etc.).
...
In 2022, there were 8.7% more deaths than expected, compared to 6.9% in 2021 and 7.8% in 2020. This difference, which can be described as excess mortality, is therefore in 2022 higher than those of 2020 and 2021. The excess mortality of 2022 is quite close to that of the same months in 2021, except in July and December when it is significantly higher: 13% in July 2022, against 1% in July 2021; 25% in December 2022, compared to 15% in December 2021 ( figure 5). The December 2022 peak (25%) is the third highest excess mortality peak over the entire period from 2020 to 2022, after those observed during the first two waves of Covid-19 in 2020 (33% in April and 31% in november).

...
However, even if the number of deaths by underlying cause is not yet known, the Covid-19 epidemic was most likely less deadly in 2022 than in 2021: there were 38,300 deaths of people with Covid-19 in 2022 according to SpFrance, significantly less than in 2021 (59,100); the CépiDc also records a drop in the number of death certificates with Covid-19 mention between 2021 and 2022. This lower mortality linked to Covid-19 is visible only in the first half of the year, from January to May, with approximately 20,000 fewer deaths linked to Covid-19 (according to SpFrance or CépiDc). Early 2022, a large majority of the population had received at least two doses of the vaccine, which was not the case at the beginning of the previous year. For example, the 1April 2021, only 7% of 70-74 year olds were vaccinated with two injections, compared to 85% on August 1, 2021 [Open in a new tabSp France, 2023b ]. Vaccination is one of the factors that has reduced the mortality rate linked to Covid-19: for example, in October 2021, among those aged 20 or over, this rate is nine times lower for fully vaccinated people than for those not vaccinated [Open in a new tabDres, 2021 ]. In addition, the Omicron variant, predominant from the start of 2022, resulted in less severe forms compared to the previous variants (Alpha and Delta).

It was therefore deaths due to causes other than Covid-19 that increased in 2022. First of all, the year 2022 had two unusual episodes of influenza: a first late epidemic in March-April, then an early second in December [Open in a new tabSpFrance, 2023a ], even though the flu was almost absent in 2021 [Open in a new tabSpFrance, 2023c ]. The peak in mortality in December 2022 particularly affected France and the countries of Northern Europe [Open in a new tabEurostat, 2023 ]. In addition, heat waves caused more deaths in 2022 (2,800 from all causes) than in 2021 (200) [Open in a new tabSp France, 2022a ]. High temperatures for much of the summer may also have led to deaths outside of heat waves.

In addition, the Covid-19 epidemic may have led to an increase in deaths in 2021 and 2022 due to indirect effects, such as postponements of operations or the drop in screening for other diseases in 2020 [Open in a new tabSpFrance, 2022b ]. The detailed analysis of the causes of death by the CépiDc will provide additional explanations for this increase.

Before 55 and after 85, higher excess mortality than in 2021

In 2022, observed deaths are higher than expected deaths for all age groups, with excess mortality varying from +4% for 55-64 year olds to +11% for 75-84 year olds. Compared to 2021, it increased before age 55 and after age 85 ( figure 6). Deaths of people under the age of 15 are notably more numerous than expected in 2022 (+6%), whereas they were lower in 2021 (-3%). Between ages 15 and 34, excess mortality also increased significantly (+10%, compared to +3% in 2021); it has also increased, to a lesser extent, among 35-54 year olds. However, according to SpFrance, deaths in hospital of people under 55 with Covid-19 were fewer in 2022 than in 2021 [Open in a new tabSp France, 2023b ]. An increase in deaths indirectly linked to the epidemic (postponement of operations, drop in screenings, etc.) or to another unusual event (influenza, episodes of intense heat, etc.), and/or a drop in deaths avoided could explain this higher excess mortality at these ages. Before age 55, the difference between the number of observed and expected deaths is 3,500 people in 2022, which represents 7% of the total difference (53,800).
...
...
Excess mortality is stable for 75-84 year olds: in 2022, as in 2021, they are the most severely affected (11% more deaths than expected). This stability suggests that the various downward effects on the number of deaths (vaccination, less virulent Omicron variant, etc.) would have been offset by the upward effects (flu, heat waves and/or increase in other deaths).

Excess mortality increased between 2021 and 2022 for those aged 85 or over, and especially for those aged 95 or over. After an increase in deaths following a crisis, the “harvest” effect reduces mortality in the following years because some of the most vulnerable people have died. In 2021, this effect had probably contributed to a significant reduction in the mortality of older people [ Blanpain, Papon, 2021 ]. In 2022, it appears to have been more than offset by excess deaths. As for the youngest, deaths in hospital for octogenarians and nonagenarians linked to Covid-19 were fewer in 2022 than in 2021 [Open in a new tabSp France, 2023b ]. It is therefore deaths due to other causes that must have contributed to increasing the excess mortality of the oldest.

Increase in the excess mortality of women and maintenance of that of men

In 2022, the excess mortality of women increased (8%, compared to 5% in 2021), while that of men is stable (9%). It is above all the increase in the mortality of women aged 85 or over that explains the increase. For example, among women aged 85 to 94, deaths exceeded expected deaths by 7% in 2022, compared to 4% in 2021. As for the stability of excess mortality among men, it comes from an increase among 85 years or more compensated by a drop between 55 and 84 years.

Among women aged 15 to 34, excess mortality is particularly high in 2022 (16%), whereas it was moderate in 2021 (3%). The excess mortality of men of the same age has also increased (8%, compared to 3% in 2021). About 6,900 deaths of women or men between the ages of 15 and 34 took place, 600 more than expected. In 2022, fatal road accidents increased for 18-34 year olds (+12%, i.e. +109 people). However, they are far from fully explaining the rise in excess mortality at these ages, which is therefore due to other factors.

https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/7628176

[Emily]

The Mystery of Unaccounted Excess Deaths in the US


By Eyal Shahar August 24, 2022 Policy, Public Health
https://brownstone.org/articles/deaths/
By April 2022, the number of reported Covid deaths (993,739) had accounted for almost all of the CDC estimate of excess deaths (about 1,080,000). The official narrative will tell you that most of the difference is missing Covid deaths – people who died from Covid but were not diagnosed.

That’s a simpleminded summary.

First, flu returned last winter (Figure 1) and its share in excess mortality is unknown. A comparison of Covid deaths with excess deaths must be truncated in September 2021, before the beginning of the flu wave.

Second, Covid deaths might have been missed early on, but it is absurd to assume that they continued to be missed throughout the pandemic. On the contrary, liberal coding rules, financial incentives, extensive testing, and a Covid-oriented mindset must have led to overcounting of Covid-related deaths.

Third, lockdowns, social isolation, fear-mongering, and disruption of normal life took their toll, too. There is no doubt that those baseless interventions have cost (and will cost) lives. So the question is not whether they contributed to excess mortality, but how much? What percentage of the excess mortality in the US is due to panic reaction and official fear-mongering? How many excess deaths are not accounted for by Covid?...

Dr. Eyal Shahar is a professor emeritus of public health in epidemiology and biostatistics. His research focuses on epidemiology and methodology. In recent years, Dr. Shahar has also made significant contributions to research methodology, especially in the domain of causal diagrams and biases.
https://brownstone.org/articles/deaths/

[sharon sanders]

I think it is still too soon to evaluate all of the data but in every pandemic model that I have seen the "collateral" deaths were estimated to run as high as deaths from the pandemic disease itself - for a variety of reasons: social unrest, suicide, starvation, lack of access to medical treatments, deferred medical treatments, poor pandemic management, etc.