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  • Indonesia Discussion (Alternative to Venting Category)

    INTERVIEW-Experts track contacts of Indonesian family cluster
    http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/HKG166549.htm

    <!-- 24 May 2006 10:31:56 GMT ## for search indexer, do not remove--> 24 May 2006 10:31:56 GMT Source: Reuters

    By Tan Ee Lyn JAKARTA, May 24 (Reuters) - Health experts are tracing anyone who might have had contact with an Indonesian family struck down by bird flu and is putting them on anti-viral drugs as a precaution, a senior WHO official said. Seven of the family members died this month but so far there is no evidence of anyone else being infected, the World Health Organisation has said.

    "We are going wide, contacting the various contacts, putting on (anti-viral) Tamiflu whoever has had close contact, basically putting family members who have not been affected on Tamiflu as a precaution," Firdosi Mehta, acting representative of the WHO in Indonesia told Reuters. "There is active surveillance in the village, fever surveillance to look for any more cases that are occurring outside this immediate family cluster," he said.

    The H5N1 bird flu virus infected as many as eight members of the family in the remote village of Kubu Sembilang in north Sumatra. It is the largest bird flu family cluster known to date and has drawn an enormous amount of attention from medical experts. Clusters are looked on with far more suspicion than isolated infections because they raise the possibility that the virus might have mutated to transmit more efficiently among humans.

    That could spark a pandemic that can kill millions.

    But Mehta urged against any over-reaction, saying this was not the first cluster that the world has known. He added it was little different from other family clusters that have been documented in the past in Hong Kong, Thailand and Vietnam.

    Such limited human-to-human transmissions of the virus are invariably, up till now, the result of very close and prolonged contact when a person takes care of a sick relative who is coughing and probably infectious. HUMAN TRANSMISSION VERY HARD TO PROVE "This is not the first time, and we cannot conclusively discard or prove this to be human-to-human transmission," Mehta said, echoing a statement made by the WHO.

    On Tuesday, the WHO said limited human-to-human transmission of bird flu might have occurred in the family, but there was no scientific evidence that the virus had mutated to allow it to spread easily among people.

    "What is reassuring is two of the human samples from Kubu Sembilang have shown no evidence of reassortment or significant mutations. The lineage of these viruses are very similar to H5N1 viruses from avian specimens from north Sumatra," Mehta said. Human-to-human transmission is very difficult to prove because epidemiologists will have to eliminate all other possible causes, such as the presence of a non-human source or any other infecting agent in the environment.

    But in the case of this rural family, they had slaughtered and cooked a pig and chickens for a feast on April 29, animals which are known to be highly susceptible to the virus. Efforts to test chickens and pigs for the virus have failed because residents there have refused to cooperate.
    Tensions are high as they blame the government for not helping enough.

    This large cluster meanwhile has re-ignited interest in a theory expounded by a growing number of scientists that genetics might predispose certain people to being infected by H5N1, which remains essentially a disease of birds. Some people who survived H5N1 have been found to have more of a type of receptor cells along their respiratory tracts that avian flu viruses like to bind to -- which in theory would explain why some humans might be more susceptible to H5N1. Such a genetic trait would also explain why cluster cases have invariably involved blood relations, and never husbands and wives. "It appears that familial susceptibility amongst certain races, certain cultures and certain groups of people appear to be having a play in the pathogenesis and behaviour of this virus when it jumps from one species, like poultry, to humans," Mehta said, but added that evidence for this was still sketchy.
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  • #2
    Re: Indonesia Discussion (Alternative to Venting Category)

    Alaska Denise and LMonty, Mingus and others,
    Any idea how this hypothesis might be tested?

    I guess I'm looking for ways we can identify who may have an edge in surviving (or who are at greater risk of dying).

    So far for survival I've heard
    people 38 years old or older (alive during the 1968 pandemic)
    people with autoimmune conditions --> don't think I really believe that one
    people with a certain genetic makeup associated with receptors in a certain place in the lungs --> this one will likely change if h2h goes easily transmissable (airborne)

    Any others that are survival factors or risk factors
    • for becoming infected?
    • for surviving once infected?

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Indonesia Discussion (Alternative to Venting Category)

      Interesting hypothesis. They may turn out to be only the initial sub-group susceptible to H5N1. I suspect for this to become epidemic and later pandemic, the virus will have to overcome the propensity to limit its attack to a few specific individuals. This genetic sub-group may play a role in further development of all avian influenza mutations. Their role would be much like that of another intermediate species, pigs. (No offense meant by that remark.)
      Please do not ask me for medical advice, I am not a medical doctor.

      Avatar is a painting by Alan Pollack, titled, "Plague". I'm sure it was an accident that the plague girl happened to look almost like my twin.
      Thank you,
      Shannon Bennett

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Indonesia Discussion (Alternative to Venting Category)

        I have many concerns about statements coming out from various WHO spokespeople, but one particularly disturbs me: this notion that the virus is now transmissable only from close and prolonged family contact, such as sitting in a small room all night with a virus-shedding person. For the better part of last week I may have been sitting closer to strangers in airports and on tiny commuter airplanes than the Indonesia index case was to her three relatives in her room. I have seen no reports yet to suggest that all of the family members who died were hugging and kissing each other or rubbing each other in saliva and urine. It's just possible that these family members are intrinsically intelligent enough not to get real close to people who are very sick and coughing.

        I have a couple of questions for the health care professionals:

        What constitutes "casual contact"? Is that a defined term or is it being used subjectively?

        While the virus may be present in bodily fluids, isn't the assumption being made by WHO in the example of the index case that the relatives in her small room were infected by expulsion of the virus when she coughed? If that is the case, how would it be different in an airplane or supermarket? My first experience with a terrible case of influenza was after flying from Hong Kong to Chicago sitting next to a couple of people who were sick. Was that casual contact or close and prolonged contact in medical lingo?
        Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Indonesia Discussion (Alternative to Venting Category)

          One thing not mentioned here that should be is faecal contamination is just as likely. Though they specifically mention coughing in close quarters, they make no mention of diarrhea. Failure to mention this does not mean she wasn't suffering from this symptom. It is frequently seen in bf patients.
          Please do not ask me for medical advice, I am not a medical doctor.

          Avatar is a painting by Alan Pollack, titled, "Plague". I'm sure it was an accident that the plague girl happened to look almost like my twin.
          Thank you,
          Shannon Bennett

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Indonesia Discussion (Alternative to Venting Category)

            I have a question that is relevant to your discussion Mellie. Are there any populations or regions in the US that have a statistically lower infection rate with garden-variety flu? Does anyone know of any or where I could get this information?
            Please do not ask me for medical advice, I am not a medical doctor.

            Avatar is a painting by Alan Pollack, titled, "Plague". I'm sure it was an accident that the plague girl happened to look almost like my twin.
            Thank you,
            Shannon Bennett

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Indonesia Discussion (Alternative to Venting Category)

              IMHO infection is just a case of viral load and luck (or lack there of).

              I suggested genetic variablity (in humans not H5N1) after looking at the family relationships in the Turkish cluster but got a well reasoned reply from a revere at the time explaining why it was not likely to play more than an incidental role. There has been much made of this as the first and largest H2H cluster but I would argue the Kocyigit/Ozcan cluster was larger, spread over a longer time and probaly had a more extended H2H....2H chain.

              the link is to a Dr Niman post with dates and relationships for Turkey

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Indonesia Discussion (Alternative to Venting Category)

                Originally posted by Shannon
                I have a question that is relevant to your discussion Mellie. Are there any populations or regions in the US that have a statistically lower infection rate with garden-variety flu? Does anyone know of any or where I could get this information?
                I wondered about that and tried to find an answer but could find nothing indicating an correlation between ethnicity and rates of infection.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Indonesia Discussion (Alternative to Venting Category)

                  J., this may sound a bit bizarre, but I was actually thinking as a geographer. I'm sure you are aware of my attempt to limit the fatality rate of the disease and, I am looking at some obscure clues for accomplishing the task. A couple of things come to mind. Ethnicity plays a role but perhaps not through genetics. Could there be a lessening of infection because of food choices or more importantly by ingesting enough alkaline water to make the human body enter mild alkalosis? If soda is present in the water supply naturally, then 1/2 tsp/day would be enough to alter the bodies chemistry. I know of only one place in the US where natural soda is ubiquitous in the drinking water, Camas Prairie Idaho. It would be interesting to research whether they have lower rates of flu infection.
                  I found one study indicating that ph might be a factor in some disease transmission. Flu virus uses an acid to "burn" through a cell wall for the purpose of replication. If however the host cells were slightly more alkaline, would that limit the viruses ability to break through the wall? One way to find out would be to find places that had a tendency to make the bodily alkaline naturally. Water seems to be the most likely route for a regional phenomenon. Do they then have a lesser propensity for infection by flu virus?
                  Originally posted by JJackson
                  I wondered about that and tried to find an answer but could find nothing indicating an correlation between ethnicity and rates of infection.
                  Please do not ask me for medical advice, I am not a medical doctor.

                  Avatar is a painting by Alan Pollack, titled, "Plague". I'm sure it was an accident that the plague girl happened to look almost like my twin.
                  Thank you,
                  Shannon Bennett

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Indonesia Discussion (Alternative to Venting Category)

                    You need the help of Mingus or one of the others with a greater depth of knowledge in physiology than mine. I would have thought that an environmental variable - like water alkalinity - would be negated by the host, most biological processes being enzyme moderated are very sensitive to the ambient ph and the body would always be fighting to adjust to its needs. As in human body temperature in hot and cold climates, another example of the body adjusting it environment to the needs of its biochemistry.
                    If I remember my physiology correctly from university when you hold your breath under water and feel a desperate need to breath this is caused by increased blood ph. It is not easy for the body to measure the amount of oxygen in the blood so it measures the acidity which is caused by increased H2CO3 i.e. the CO2 level and this is normally a good (inverse) guide to O2 levels. Divers suppress this gasp reflex by hyperventilating (to flush out the CO2) before free diving - dangerous as it does not give you more bottom time it just fools you into thinking you have more. Sorry wondered way of topic!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Indonesia Discussion (Alternative to Venting Category)

                      I would tend to agree with the host fighting the variable to a degree. But we know that there are ways to overcome the ph because of diet, alcohol will do this is used to excess. I doubt that changing the ph alone would be a single limiting factor. But, if used in tandem with other methods of limiting replication and, with compounds that inhibit infection, then we may have another nail int the viruses coffin.
                      Please do not ask me for medical advice, I am not a medical doctor.

                      Avatar is a painting by Alan Pollack, titled, "Plague". I'm sure it was an accident that the plague girl happened to look almost like my twin.
                      Thank you,
                      Shannon Bennett

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Indonesia Discussion (Alternative to Venting Category)

                        I'll email a geologist friend to see if she knows or can find out any other regions of the country that have more routinely alkaline water supplies. (..although some people drink bottled water because the local water tastes so bad)

                        Is there a database that would have incidence of flu for the area of Idaho?

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Indonesia Discussion (Alternative to Venting Category)

                          I wish I knew Mellie. That particular area has a very limited population. I also do not know how far the soda phenomenon extends. Fairfield, Id. has a high amount, but does Arco or Hill City? And I suspect the data re: infected population numbers would be flawed. Too few doctors and very limited reporting. The valley (if I recall correctly) has less than 1,000 residents. That is why I hoped there would be another possibly larger region. And, we need to make sure ingesting the water leads to elevation in ph values. Does all hard water do this or are there only some compounds that do? I know that baking soda will but do not know if lime alone accomplishes the same task.
                          Please do not ask me for medical advice, I am not a medical doctor.

                          Avatar is a painting by Alan Pollack, titled, "Plague". I'm sure it was an accident that the plague girl happened to look almost like my twin.
                          Thank you,
                          Shannon Bennett

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Indonesia Discussion (Alternative to Venting Category)

                            Map...
                            Wait... Fairfield... that's near Hailey. I have a cousin-in-law who's a doc there. What might we want to ask him? I'm sure he knows all the docs in the area. His wife is a nurse...

                            I'll also email the geologist.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Indonesia Discussion (Alternative to Venting Category)

                              Mellie:

                              I only have a minute here, but Dr. Niman pointed out cases of husband and wife when this observation first surfaced.

                              I think it would be helpful if someone examined the sequences from within these family chains and pondered every tiny mutation from the first person to the last - the answer may be there.

                              Early I mentioned my daughter's thoughs.. ....since this virus is supposed to mutate with great speed, perhaps once it infects one person it mutates to that subset of genetic criteria, ie., the blood relatives. IF that were true, non-relatives should be caregivers.

                              Considering that this virus seems very different, we shouldn't compare only to the behavior of prior virus.

                              My quick thoughts - goota run.

                              .
                              "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

                              Comment

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