Hope-Simpson Seasonal Influenza Stimulas

[gsgs]

calculate the expected amount of UV-radiation per day
for -say- New York depending on time of year
and solar activity. I assume, it's _not_ proportional
to the number of sun-spots.

I think there was an article by Kilbourne in early 1976
about this in NYT (1947-1957-1968-1976(+3)
and that contributed to the 1976 swine flu vaccination decision.
Later the idea of the 11-year-cycle was rejected and given up.

However, pandemics occur because of reassortment,
a virus jumps from bird/swine to humans.
This is hardly triggered by the sun.

[mixin]

Re: Hope-Simpson Seasonal Influenza Stimulas

Tolenio,
Gs and I had discussion on this topic over at his forum.

http://www.setbb.com/phpbb/viewtopic.php?t=551&mforum=fluwiki2

You might like this one, also:

http://www.setbb.com/phpbb/viewtopic.php?t=579&mforum=fluwiki2

[pjie2]

Re: Hope-Simpson Seasonal Influenza Stimulas

As you can see the strong influenza strains that cause epidemic or pandemics come during a solar minimum or immediately after the solar minimum.

I'm sorry, but I really don't find this remotely convincing from your graph. If anything, the majority of the pandemics occur very shortly before a solar maximum.

You seem to have allowed yourself at least three years' wiggle room either side of the minimum when claiming a "fit". Need I point out that this is a six year window in an 11 year cycle? With that kind of accuracy, it would be unexpected if the majority of pandemics didn't occur within a few years of a solar minimum, especially once you allow for the fact that several of the pandemics intrinsically last for 2-3 years! You've also arbitrarily included the 1937 event (which was at best a potential pandemic) while arbitrarily excluding the 1976 Fort Dix swine flu and the 1977 reappearance of H1N1. If you want to claim this relationship is real, you need to set some consistent definitions of which pandemics / epidemics you include, you need to state how you're locating them relative to the solar cycle (e.g. years from previous trough, years from previous peak, percentage of the time between peaks, etc.) and apply a proper statistical test.

[lakesidepark]

Re: Hope-Simpson Seasonal Influenza Stimulas

I think he included the 1937 event to also point out the benefits of social distancing. However I can not speculate on intentions.

The 1976 Fort Dix event was local, never spread. It can be questioned if this was ever bound to be a pandemic. It can also be questioned (at least from the fringes) that this event may have been an accidental release.

The 1977 Russian Flu H1N1 also does not qualify as a real pandemic event at least to some, as it is speculated this event was actually caused by virus release of a past 1950 strain from a Russian medical experiment and not from a natural re-assortment event. This is not questioned from the fringes but appears to be mainstream knowledge.

The rest of the questions from the last post? From my view they still stand.