Swine flu worse in Mexico than US, but why?

[EXPY37]

Re: Swine flu worse in Mexico than US, but why?

Could it be that the folks traveling to the US fom Mexico have an earlier generation of the virus and that their infection is milder.

However, after their parents/family become infected from THEM, the virus will have reached another generation of recombination/evolution and may become more virulent [as it has appeared to become in Mexico] and then we will begin to see deaths in the US in 5 to 7 days?

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Swine flu worse in Mexico than US, but why?

Could it be that the folks traveling to the US fom Mexico have an earlier generation of the virus and that their infection is milder.

That's what I've been wondering.

However, given the enormous Mexico City population it was the perfect opportunity for log mutation chains. Now that there is considerable awareness elsewhere we can hope that sick people will isolate themselves and the chains in non-Mexican strains will be less lethal. I can hope.

.

[flutrackers@cool.fr.nf]

Re: Swine flu worse in Mexico than US, but why?

Could it be that the folks traveling to the US fom Mexico have an earlier generation of the virus and that their infection is milder.

However, after their parents/family become infected from THEM, the virus will have reached another generation of recombination/evolution and may become more virulent [as it has appeared to become in Mexico] and then we will begin to see deaths in the US in 5 to 7 days?

Yes and no. The first part about a milder version is a theory I do believe. I believe people who may have contracted the more recently emerging more virtulent virus will start to emerge in the USA and around the world. However as for their parents/family getting more sick it is a possibility but mutations are much more likely to occur in greater populations such as that in Mexico City. However if the more mild virus spreads across the USA, it can mutate into the more virtulent form.

[BStendal]

Some immunity via years of flu shots n having flu repeatedly before flu shots in common use?

What is the likelihood that older Americans will have some immunity to this flu as a result of years of flu shots as an adult and having flu over and over before the flu shot was so readily available? I had flu repeatedly as a child and as an adult before the flu shot was in common use, including the Asian flu as a child and Hong Kong flu.

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Swine flu worse in Mexico than US, but why?

Earlier vaccines had a swine component, according to Ft. Dix swine epidemic studied, and they felt it contributed to the successful eradication of the Ft. Dix swine flu. So maybe we older folks will be protected.

Also, pandemics usually impact young healthy adults worse than the youngest and oldest.

.

[flutrackers@cool.fr.nf]

Re: Some immunity via years of flu shots n having flu repeatedly before flu shots in common use?

What is the likelihood that older Americans will have some immunity to this flu as a result of years of flu shots as an adult and having flu over and over before the flu shot was so readily available? I had flu repeatedly as a child and as an adult before the flu shot was in common use, including the Asian flu as a child and Hong Kong flu.

Maybe and im sure the CDC is looking into that. However different strains require their own vaccine. And this flu seems to be relatively severe to middle aged people but not the very young or old.

[GermTheory]

Re: Swine flu worse in Mexico than US, but why?

http://www.promedmail.org/pls/otn/f?p=2400:1001:3269665317803325::NO::F2400_P1001_BACK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_PUB_MAIL_ID:1000,77182

Here's a report from the ground via ProMED. Among the initial cases, 500 were health care workers

[Laidback Al]

Re: Swine flu worse in Mexico than US, but why?

http://www.promedmail.org/pls/otn/f?..._ID:1000,77182

Here's a report from the ground via ProMED. Among the initial cases, 500 were health care workers

The report from several days ago on the infection of 500 HCW is suspect. If that many HCW individuals were infected among the hospitals in Mexico, D.F. it would mean that the hospitals are either overrun with infected cases from patients seeking medical care or the virus was highly transmissible. In either case, there would be far more cases of infection in the D.F. than are being reported today.

[colormyquilt]

Re: Swine flu worse in Mexico than US, but why?

http://www.promedmail.org/pls/otn/f?..._ID:1000,77182

Here's a report from the ground via ProMED. Among the initial cases, 500 were health care workers

The ProMED reprot is dated 23 April. In it, concern re: high HCW is dated 17 April. If this did not begin with HCW's, missing is alot of information/ documentation re: very high numbers of individuals presenting at the hospitals. If not high numbers, something else appears to be happening.

[The Mountains Voice]

Re: Swine flu worse in Mexico than US, but why?

The report from several days ago on the infection of 500 HCW is suspect. If that many HCW individuals were infected among the hospitals in Mexico, D.F. it would mean that the hospitals are either overrun with infected cases from patients seeking medical care or the virus was highly transmissible. In either case, there would be far more cases of infection in the D.F. than are being reported today.

Not so sure we're getting all the infection cases in the "reports" though. We're seeing some pretty high infection rates even here in the U.S. - it's just under reported. The NYC case is a perfect example - they tested 8, but it's unfathomable that the other 75 - 100 aren't infected also. Recent South Carolina story indicates that students returning to Mexico were infected 12 out of 13. That's pretty high infection rate. AND - growing, but unsubstantiated, reports from doctors in Mexico are giving witness to situations much worse than the official reports. But 500 is a pretty high number. Better hope it's wrong.

Wierd thing to me so far in U.S. seems to be the dying transmission chains (as in they seem to fall off quickly) - unless incubation period is really long, in which case later this week might be a really bad time.

[Laidback Al]

Re: Swine flu worse in Mexico than US, but why?

Wierd thing to me so far in U.S. seems to be the dying transmission chains (as in they seem to fall off quickly) - unless incubation period is really long, in which case later this week might be a really bad time.

Despite public health announcements about the incubation period there is a lot of information about the nature of this virus that is still uncertain.

[UtahApoc]

Re: Swine flu worse in Mexico than US, but why?

Not so sure we're getting all the infection cases in the "reports" though. We're seeing some pretty high infection rates even here in the U.S. - it's just under reported. The NYC case is a perfect example - they tested 8, but it's unfathomable that the other 75 - 100 aren't infected also. Recent South Carolina story indicates that students returning to Mexico were infected 12 out of 13. That's pretty high infection rate. AND - growing, but unsubstantiated, reports from doctors in Mexico are giving witness to situations much worse than the official reports. But 500 is a pretty high number. Better hope it's wrong.

Wierd thing to me so far in U.S. seems to be the dying transmission chains (as in they seem to fall off quickly) - unless incubation period is really long, in which case later this week might be a really bad time.

I agree, How many people are symptomatic, and have been in H2H contact with infected person but are not being tested?? The MSM and others are ONLY looking at the CDC "Confirmed" numbers. The reality on the ground though is the number have to be much higher.

[deerskie]

Re: Swine flu worse in Mexico than US, but why?

Earlier vaccines had a swine component, according to Ft. Dix swine epidemic studied, and they felt it contributed to the successful eradication of the Ft. Dix swine flu. So maybe we older folks will be protected.

Also, pandemics usually impact young healthy adults worse than the youngest and oldest.

.

I read that the swine component was only included in vaccines given to military personnel--not to the general public. This fact, along with the relative isolation of the Ft. Dix recruits, allowed the Ft. Dix outbreak to die out.

[SpeakerFTD]

Re: Swine flu worse in Mexico than US, but why?

Newbie here. Is there any estimate of the incubation period for this flu? How long between a potential exposure and the onset of symptoms?

One of my co-workers traveled to Mexico two weeks ago and returned with flu-like symptoms (worst he has been sick in years). We thought nothing of it at the time, and we have no idea if it was swine flu or something more pedestrian, but we can't help trying to calculate when we are "all clear" from any chance of contraction. Although I assumed it would be widely broadcast information, I am having trouble finding any estimates of the incubation period of this strain.

Thanks in advance for any help.

[tropical]

Re: Swine flu worse in Mexico than US, but why?

Newbie here. Is there any estimate of the incubation period for this flu? How long between a potential exposure and the onset of symptoms?

One of my co-workers traveled to Mexico two weeks ago and returned with flu-like symptoms (worst he has been sick in years). We thought nothing of it at the time, and we have no idea if it was swine flu or something more pedestrian, but we can't help trying to calculate when we are "all clear" from any chance of contraction. Although I assumed it would be widely broadcast information, I am having trouble finding any estimates of the incubation period of this strain.

Thanks in advance for any help.

The researchers could give an more precise response.

In the meantime few orientative (not precise/ and to be corrected) timeline schedules, interviews, mainly based on mails from the patients, witnesses, and lenght of touristic mixing, reported here at FT (to a more precise answer ask the viral gurus, and dig the statements):

- the worldwide infections of passengers infected in Mexico: 1-7 days
- the ones fresh infected this weekend from the above entering passengers: few days
- the North American previous infections non linked to Mexico passengers: few days to 7 days schedule
- the harder Mexican version: few days

That's only an orientative, fast rough answer.

P.S.
Quarantine, from the ancient time = 40 days of waiting for symptoms
Recent quarantines microbe depended, but ~ = 3 weeks
Actual observance of this ~ 1-2 weeks (China/...)