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I was just looking at the onset dates in U.S. Interesting, because I have been under the impression that all of this has just exploded in a short time. My 5 year old had all of these symptoms around the 10th? of April. On the 12th (a Sunday) we took him to the emergency room. His symptoms fit the profile. They specifically mentioned that we hadn't had any flu cases recently in our area. I got it a day later, mine was similar symptoms, but of very short duration. My oldest son's friend was with us that weekend, and he got it the day after me. All the symptoms fit - and there was no seasonal flu activity in the 2 county area. I'm wondering now if we could have had it. Would there be antibodies detectable?
Antibody levels for swine H1 would be highest 3-4 weeks after disease onset.
There are thousands of cases just like the above who have not been tested.
I was just looking at the onset dates in U.S. Interesting, because I have been under the impression that all of this has just exploded in a short time. My 5 year old had all of these symptoms around the 10th? of April. On the 12th (a Sunday) we took him to the emergency room. His symptoms fit the profile. They specifically mentioned that we hadn't had any flu cases recently in our area. I got it a day later, mine was similar symptoms, but of very short duration. My oldest son's friend was with us that weekend, and he got it the day after me. All the symptoms fit - and there was no seasonal flu activity in the 2 county area. I'm wondering now if we could have had it. Would there be antibodies detectable?
North Georgia. And it has been approximately 2 weeks since illness. Would it be worth call to County Health to test for antibodies in order to help with spread pattern / verification?
North Georgia. And it has been approximately 2 weeks since illness. Would it be worth call to County Health to test for antibodies in order to help with spread pattern / verification?
Any travel to Mexico?
You could try the state health (or CDC if you are in Georgia). My guess is that they will soon be overwhelmed with swabs, which will yield sequences. I would think that there are cases in almost every state.
Looks like it is in Aukland in New Zealand also (students and teachers just got back from trip to Mexico).
I was just looking at the onset dates in U.S. Interesting, because I have been under the impression that all of this has just exploded in a short time. My 5 year old had all of these symptoms around the 10th? of April. On the 12th (a Sunday) we took him to the emergency room. His symptoms fit the profile. They specifically mentioned that we hadn't had any flu cases recently in our area. I got it a day later, mine was similar symptoms, but of very short duration. My oldest son's friend was with us that weekend, and he got it the day after me. All the symptoms fit - and there was no seasonal flu activity in the 2 county area. I'm wondering now if we could have had it. Would there be antibodies detectable?
Niman: My guess is that they will soon be overwhelmed with swabs, which will yield sequences. I would think that there are cases in almost every state.
I agree. I think I'd be wasting their time. But it does bring up my earlier question - that of the 1918 early season exposure resulting in limited immunity. Becase IF that is a true scenario back then - it could very well hold for now. In that case I would be very interested in knowing whether my family had been exposed or not. Because IF my family was exposed (and we've obviously lived), and if this turns out to be just a minor 1st round, with a more intense/virulent 2nd round to follow in months to come - what are the odds / considerations involved in whether we would maintain a limited / complete immunity??
It is likely that you would have some immunity. There will be many versions and one or a small number will emerge and teh strain that emerges will have acquired more virulence and may have also escaped from the immunity produced by the milder version. However, those exposed to the mild version will almost certainly do better with subsequent rounds (might just get sick, while those with no exposure will die).
At this point you are better off with the mild strain than without (but of course the mild strain is far from harmless, and the death toll will month for this version. The exiting sequences from California and Texas have differences and there are probably more such changes in fatal cases in Mexico.
First, the US Healthcare Infrastructure will continue to convert life-threatening illnesses into "mild" illnesses.
It will continue to do so for as many and for so long as it has drugs, equipment, space and personnel to do so.
During that time, the comparative mortality will be less than other areas with less developed medical capabilities.
But when the tide comes fully in and the JIT supply-line starts to warp and buckle, the technical staff that wave our magic wands are home tending their own ill or in bed themselves, and our electric grid begins to flicker and dim, then our supposed greater level of genetic or environmental immunity may come into greater question.
Second, the US had a significantly lower average mortality rate in 1918 than the world-at-large but that's a far cry from saying that what our country experienced then was a "mild" flu.
So until the numbers give us more to work with, I'm thinking that making conclusory statements about "mild" or "severe" are premature and could create false foundations for future analysis and discussion.
Niman
whats your opinion on tamiflu still being effective against this swine virus ? i guess it may not be long before we are only left with relenza?
can i get your opinion on the following scenerio - assuming tamiflu is still effective and an individual was taking the profolactic dose while being exposed to the virus for instance a health care provider - is exposure to the virus under this circumstance likely to confer any resistence for that individual
INTO THE WOODS wrote: First, the US Healthcare Infrastructure will continue to convert life-threatening illnesses into "mild" illnesses. It will continue to do so for as many and for so long as it has drugs, equipment, space and personnel to do so. During that time, the comparative mortality will be less than other areas with less developed medical capabilities. But when the tide comes fully in and the JIT supply-line starts to warp and buckle, the technical staff that wave our magic wands are home tending their own ill or in bed themselves, and our electric grid begins to flicker and dim, then our supposed greater level of genetic or environmental immunity may come into greater question.
Lots of stories coming out of Mexico where mortality rates are much greater than publicly announced. I believe I saw at least a couple where doctors & staff were exiting for various reasons. Hard to determine fact from fiction. Anyone with insider knowledge on exactly what is going on in the Mexican hospitals? Any substantial number of infected health providers? Regardless of the "Official" death count - I'm seeing crazy swings in "Rumour Death" reporting? Anyone here have credible estimate?
A serious lack of potable water may also be a factor that could effect health and sanitation. Please note the article is dated April 11th.
Dry Taps in Mexico City: A Water Crisis Gets Worse
Time.com
By IOAN GRILLO / MEXICO CITY Ioan Grillo / Mexico City – Sat Apr 11, 1:40 am ET
"The reek of unwashed toilets spilled into the street in the neighborhood of unpainted cinder block houses. Out on the main road, hundreds of residents banged plastic buckets and blocked the path of irate drivers while children scoured the surrounding area for government trucks.
......
About five million people, or a quarter of the population of Mexico City's urban sprawl, woke up Thursday with dry taps. The drought was caused by the biggest stoppage in the city's main reservoir system in recent years to ration its depleting supplies."
A serious lack of potable water may also be a factor that could effect health and sanitation. Please not the article is dated April 11th.
Dry Taps in Mexico City: A Water Crisis Gets Worse
Time.com
By IOAN GRILLO / MEXICO CITY Ioan Grillo / Mexico City ? Sat Apr 11, 1:40 am ET
"The reek of unwashed toilets spilled into the street in the neighborhood of unpainted cinder block houses. Out on the main road, hundreds of residents banged plastic buckets and blocked the path of irate drivers while children scoured the surrounding area for government trucks.
......
About five million people, or a quarter of the population of Mexico City's urban sprawl, woke up Thursday with dry taps. The drought was caused by the biggest stoppage in the city's main reservoir system in recent years to ration its depleting supplies."
Good find Amish Country. The lack of potable water and interruptions in the sewage system could potentially be very relevant. Iowa State has a backgounder that reports H5N1 virus has been documented as being shed in human feces:
"Fecal shedding of the avian H5N1 virus has also been documented in a child with diarrhea." Page 3 - no specific refernce cited.
Diarrhea and vomiting have been reported as a feature of this outbreak, and diarrhea has been a component of seasonal influenza particularly among infected children. It is possible that more severe illness in Mexico City is associated with a higher viral dose exposure.
Pneumococcal pneumonia is of diminishing significance because of prompt response to treatment, it is still a significant illness in industrialized nations. In the non-industrialized world it is still a major cause of mortality.
It is commonly a disease of healthy young to middle-aged adults, is rare in infants, and the elderly, and is considerably more common in men than in women.
Alcoholics appear to be particularly vulnerable.
Pneumococcal pneumonia is commonly seen in young adults after exposure to cold or after previous respiratory infection. It typically follows a viral infection, often influenza.
The salvage of human life ought to be placed above barter and exchange ~ Louis Harris, 1918
Niman
whats your opinion on tamiflu still being effective against this swine virus ? i guess it may not be long before we are only left with relenza?
can i get your opinion on the following scenerio - assuming tamiflu is still effective and an individual was taking the profolactic dose while being exposed to the virus for instance a health care provider - is exposure to the virus under this circumstance likely to confer any resistence for that individual
I too will be interested in Niman's take on these questions. I assume, as your asking, that you are aware Dr. Niman is of the opinion that SNPs readily transfer by recombination and the closer the strains the more likely this is to happen. So a H1N1(seasonal) and H1N1(swine) coinfections in large numbers should provide the perfect opportunity for H274Y(NA) and A193T(HA) to jump ship and make the new pandemic strain oseltamivir resistant.
As to the second part of your question. Again no one knows but due to the MO of Neuriminidase inhibitors (and this should be true for Relenza too) they do not prevent infection but slow it down by causing clumping and preventing the new virons making a clean getaway. Given this and your being continuously challenged sustaining low level infections your adaptive immune system should be making B cells so gradually learning how to fight the virus. It is a nice theory - post back and let me know if it worked in practice.
How long does this maintain effectiveness? I got one about 5 years ago during emergence of BF / SARS.
Also - Taking the hypothetical bad scenario, where health care breaks down to a degree at some point, respirators in short demand etc.... Wouldn't it be a prudent preventative step NOW for many people in ALL age groups to get the vaccination? I realize it is normally reserved/reccomended for older/weaker immune people - But considering the possibilities here, and the fact that it's only $20 +/-, and rather commonly available at the local doctor's office - IS THIS SOMETHING PEOPLE SHOULD CONSIDER?
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