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Very interesting article by the intrepid Laurie Garrett. It's worth reading the entire piece. Thoughts?
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The scale of the U.S. response to Ebola, primarily focused on Liberia's staggering outbreak, dwarfs that of all other nations and to date is the only external support that will involve uniformed military engagement. Overall, the world's newfound sense of immediacy in the Ebola fight is coming late, and the response will succeed -- or fail -- based on the pace of execution in getting these much-needed resources on the ground.
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I do not believe that the reason to stop Ebola is self-protection. It seems clear to me that the people of Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea are in the grips of their plague, claiming 14th-century levels of carnage. No matter how vigorously the countries' neighbors try to erect walls around the stricken nations, hoping to keep catastrophe from claiming their populations, this virus will spread. Yes, it is mutating -- a recent paper in Science shows that more than 300 mutations have already occurred. But I do not share Osterholm's fear that what is now a virus that latches onto receptors located on the outside of endothelial cells will transform into one capable of attaching itself to the alveolar cells of the lungs. That seems a genetic leap so dire and difficult to imagine that I am prepared to put it on a back burner for the moment.
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I feel that time is running out. Unless Obama's announcement can somehow include immediate measures that lead to long-scale escalations in supplies, logistics support, air shipments, and personnel on the group in West Africa, I fear dire consequences by Christmas. The need for speed is true not only of the U.S. government's efforts, but of those promised by the United Kingdom, China, Cuba, France, and every other nation that has announced some form of assistance. The virus is well ahead of the game, holding the end zone in a game that finds the epidemic control efforts bogged down on their own 19-yard line. The game can't even advance to the 20-yard line right now because airlines refuse to land in the afflicted countries, making delivery of personnel and supplies impossible until the Africom joint effort with Ghana brings a fully operational air bridge online through Accra's airport.
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Nothing short of heroic, record-breaking mobilization is necessary at this late stage in the epidemic. Without it, I am prepared to predict that by Christmas, there could be up to 250,000 people cumulatively infected in West Africa. At least 30 nations around the world, I dare predict, will have had an isolated case gain entry inside their borders, and some will be struggling as Nigeria now is, tracking down all possibly exposed individuals and hoping to stave off secondary spread. World supplies of PPEs (personal protective equipment, or "space suits"), latex gloves, goggles, booties -- all the elements of protection -- will be tapped out, demand exceeding manufacturing capacity, and an ugly competition over basic equipment will be underway. The great African economic miracle will be reversing, not just in the hard-hit countries but regionally, as the entire continent gets painted with the Ebola fear brush. Mortality due to all causes will soar in the region, as doctors, nurses, and other health care workers either succumb to Ebola, become full-time Ebola workers, or flee their jobs entirely. Women will die in delivery, auto accident victims will bleed out for lack of emergency care, old vaccine-preventable epidemics will resurge as health workers fear administering them to potentially Ebola-carrying children, and child malnutrition will set in. Lawlessness will rise as Ebola claims the lives of police and law enforcement personnel, and terrified cops quit their jobs. State stability for hard-hit nations will be questionable, or nonexistent.
snip
The scale of the U.S. response to Ebola, primarily focused on Liberia's staggering outbreak, dwarfs that of all other nations and to date is the only external support that will involve uniformed military engagement. Overall, the world's newfound sense of immediacy in the Ebola fight is coming late, and the response will succeed -- or fail -- based on the pace of execution in getting these much-needed resources on the ground.
snip
I do not believe that the reason to stop Ebola is self-protection. It seems clear to me that the people of Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea are in the grips of their plague, claiming 14th-century levels of carnage. No matter how vigorously the countries' neighbors try to erect walls around the stricken nations, hoping to keep catastrophe from claiming their populations, this virus will spread. Yes, it is mutating -- a recent paper in Science shows that more than 300 mutations have already occurred. But I do not share Osterholm's fear that what is now a virus that latches onto receptors located on the outside of endothelial cells will transform into one capable of attaching itself to the alveolar cells of the lungs. That seems a genetic leap so dire and difficult to imagine that I am prepared to put it on a back burner for the moment.
snip
I feel that time is running out. Unless Obama's announcement can somehow include immediate measures that lead to long-scale escalations in supplies, logistics support, air shipments, and personnel on the group in West Africa, I fear dire consequences by Christmas. The need for speed is true not only of the U.S. government's efforts, but of those promised by the United Kingdom, China, Cuba, France, and every other nation that has announced some form of assistance. The virus is well ahead of the game, holding the end zone in a game that finds the epidemic control efforts bogged down on their own 19-yard line. The game can't even advance to the 20-yard line right now because airlines refuse to land in the afflicted countries, making delivery of personnel and supplies impossible until the Africom joint effort with Ghana brings a fully operational air bridge online through Accra's airport.
snip
Nothing short of heroic, record-breaking mobilization is necessary at this late stage in the epidemic. Without it, I am prepared to predict that by Christmas, there could be up to 250,000 people cumulatively infected in West Africa. At least 30 nations around the world, I dare predict, will have had an isolated case gain entry inside their borders, and some will be struggling as Nigeria now is, tracking down all possibly exposed individuals and hoping to stave off secondary spread. World supplies of PPEs (personal protective equipment, or "space suits"), latex gloves, goggles, booties -- all the elements of protection -- will be tapped out, demand exceeding manufacturing capacity, and an ugly competition over basic equipment will be underway. The great African economic miracle will be reversing, not just in the hard-hit countries but regionally, as the entire continent gets painted with the Ebola fear brush. Mortality due to all causes will soar in the region, as doctors, nurses, and other health care workers either succumb to Ebola, become full-time Ebola workers, or flee their jobs entirely. Women will die in delivery, auto accident victims will bleed out for lack of emergency care, old vaccine-preventable epidemics will resurge as health workers fear administering them to potentially Ebola-carrying children, and child malnutrition will set in. Lawlessness will rise as Ebola claims the lives of police and law enforcement personnel, and terrified cops quit their jobs. State stability for hard-hit nations will be questionable, or nonexistent.
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