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It would be interested to summarize what we have learnt/seen from the Sawyer case regarding transmission of the current Ebola virus.
He must have been contagious on the whole trip. He was in areas meeting over 100 persons and obviously must have touched thing in the aeroplane and at the terminal; in Ghana, Togo and Nigeria.
The 21 incubation days is over so by now we must have seen all cases that he infected.
He has infected 12 persons; all who had direct contact with him but nobody else. There have not been any cases from Ghana or Togo or from the aeroplane. Correct?
So my conclusion would be that this Ebola virus is not transmitting in the air or via surfaces that are cleaned in a normal way. You can only get it if you have direct contact with an Ebola case or his fluids, and then it is very contentious.
What do you think?
I agree that nothing has been observed indicating that ebola virus is becoming more infectious.
"...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party
(My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.) Never forget Excalibur.
There have been several reported incidents of individuals testing negative for ebola, and later testing positive. What proportion of tests overall are showing negative in cases that are actually positive is unclear - that data has not been made available to us. The test may be insufficiently sensitive to detect a low viral load.
As with any tests, it would seem they are not 100% accurate.
As regards if it has become more infectious, a good insight can be gained by the types of people that are falling ill.
Currently about 8% of those infected are health care workers. Health care workers are a very rare commodity in these countries.
A very high proportion of the remainder seem to be from close family members.
This seems to imply that it still needs very close contact.
There is however something else to remember. There is no need for me to tell any of you how it sheds, but it should be obvious that some people will shed and therefore spread more of the virus than others outside of a family or hospital setting.
For viruses that have the ability to spread only by direct physical contact there seems to be a sort of tipping point, based in part on its ability to get into a large enough body of the most promiscuous members of a society and/or a large enough body of those who have a certain amount of resistance to it but can still spread it... versus its incubation period. No doubt you are already aware of the problems it has caused by entering more populated areas and social groups that travel across borders.
Obviously the biggest risk at the moment therefore is probably a sex worker with a certain amount of resistance but still able to spread it. Likewise even slight increases in its incubation period, or at least a slower progression from its initial stages to that of needing health care could cause it to spread further and appear more infectious.
So in summary, it does not appear to be more infectious itself, yet, however there is some concern that it might be spreading so wide that it is finding enough of the correct members of society to spread faster and further. The virus isn't changing, the people who it is infecting though are changing.
"...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party
(My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.) Never forget Excalibur.
I fear that Liberia is vulnerable to another civil war, which could break out over the quarantene measures being put in place, espcially if many of the people still do not believe that ebola is real. I don't want to even imagine what would happen if fighting broke out during this outbreak. The movement of refugees alone would be disasterous for the region.
"I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta
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