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Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
Alaska Denise: as a personal opinion only but based on observation of the published data for some years [primarily in animal populations], it seems to me that unless vaccination has sufficient coverage to generate herd immunity in its target population, all partial vaccination does is increase natural selection pressures and accelerate evolution of the virus to newer formats which may or may not be worse than the original pathogen, as well as driving pathogen diversity and producing multiple variations of a pathogen co-circulating on a global scale where before there may have only been one predominant strain.
Observe what has occurred with H5N1 on a global scale where widespread vaccination has occurred; China/ Indonesia has seen the evolution of new clades of virus, almost as fast as vaccines are adjusted to counter its genetic evolution. Now that could be down to viral evolution in wild birds, or it just could be being driven by vaccination itself, where 100% coverage is not achieved in the target animal populations. What occurs in animal populations is likely to be mirrored in human ones IMHO.
I think detailed and proper scientific study is warranted to answer this question, because it is an important one for us to know the answer to. If it should be proven to be a problem, the way forward would be development of 'universal vaccines' for each major pathogen we want to vaccinate against, so that the virus could be effectively eradicated - but that would take a lot of money and research. I doubt there is the financial incentive for companies to follow this approach, unless or until there is a clear need for it - which is all the more reason for the research to be prioritised, lest mankind is setting itself up for all manner of problems in our immediate future.
"...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party
(My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.) Never forget Excalibur.
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
Yes, I believe there is one official person who is allowed to send reports to the media. Evidently that person's reports are due out at the same time everyday. This is China after all.
Please do not ask me for medical advice, I am not a medical doctor.
Avatar is a painting by Alan Pollack, titled, "Plague". I'm sure it was an accident that the plague girl happened to look almost like my twin.
Thank you,
Shannon Bennett
"...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party
(My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.) Never forget Excalibur.
The information in the above post makes sense and might have a clue why the disease is spread out over a larger geographic area.
The disease is a reassortment - perhaps just recently occuring in or around Shanghai/Yangtse River Delta area - AND perhaps it is also novel to avian species.
The rate of spread in humans would follow the movement of the disease, the concentration of the disease (which is likely growing larger) and the movement of the avian hosts through the environment. A relatively mild avian disease with a rapid spread would move much more quickly than a pathogenic avian disease that kills off over half the population carrying it to others (i.e. H5N1).
The cases over a large geographic area might be caused by a rapid spread through the avian population compounded by the ongoing migration through waterways.
I plotted the cases where onset and location were known. The cases do follow a spreading pattern up the Yangtse River and larger tributaries.
There are more cases occuring in Shanghai - as the concentration of disease in fowl increases perhaps?
At this early in the process the disease may only be detected in few domestic poultry because it is just beginning to affect them - and maybe the wild birds are indeed the reservoir?
The unfortunate part of this scenario is that this virus's genetic code is adapted enough to cause disease in humans without obvious or intense exposure routes. The worst part of that is, not knowing how many more adaptations in the gene sequence it will take before it becomes H2H - my uneducated guess is that the more humans infected, the more opportunity there is and the faster that will happen.
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
Some sort of interuman transmission is ongoing Beyond any reasonable doubt.
If this transmission is fully or partly sustained it will be more clear as time will pass.
This kind of scenario could be refuted only when details of cases will be provided, such as - for the elderly - if they were used to do some leisure activity at open air entering in contact with birds or their manure, droppings.
Since no details were provided, and there is a continuing lack of veterinary evidence for a widespread epizootics in this area, the only reasonable explaination for the sudden increase in human cases in an oingoing community transmission.
The cases over a large geographic area might be caused by a rapid spread through the avian population compounded by the ongoing migration through waterways.
I plotted the cases where onset and location were known. The cases do follow a spreading pattern up the Yangtse River and larger tributaries.
There are more cases occuring in Shanghai - as the concentration of disease in fowl increases perhaps?
Then we might want to be searching the Pearl river delta area which is about 500 miles south of Shanghai:
The river delta, also known as the Golden Delta of Guangdong,[1] is formed by three major rivers, the Xi Jiang (West River), Bei Jiang (North River), and Dong Jiang (East River). The flat lands of the delta are criss-crossed by a network of tributaries and distributaries of the Pearl River. The Pearl River Delta is actually two alluvial deltas, separated by the core branch of the Pearl River. The Bei Jiang and Xi Jiang converge to flow into the South China Sea and Pearl River in the west, while the Dong Jiang only flows into the Pearl River proper in the east.
"The Pearl River Delta (PRD, Chinese: 珠江三角洲; pinyin: Zhūjiāng sānjiǎozhōu), Zhujiang Delta or Zhusanjiao in Guangdong province, People's Republic of China is the low-lying area surrounding the Pearl River estuary where the Pearl River flows into the South China Sea. It is one of the most densely urbanised regions in the world and one of the main hubs of China's economic growth. This region is often considered an emerging megacity. The PRD is not a megalopolis but rather one rapidly forming megacity, and itself the southern end of a larger megalopolis running along the southern coast of China, which include large metropolises like Chaoshan, Zhangzhou-Xiamen, Quanzhou-Putian, and Fuzhou.
Alaska Denise: as a personal opinion only but based on observation of the published data for some years [primarily in animal populations], it seems to me that unless vaccination has sufficient coverage to generate herd immunity in its target population, all partial vaccination does is increase natural selection pressures and accelerate evolution of the virus to newer formats which may or may not be worse than the original pathogen, as well as driving pathogen diversity and producing multiple variations of a pathogen co-circulating on a global scale where before there may have only been one predominant strain.
Observe what has occurred with H5N1 on a global scale where widespread vaccination has occurred; China/ Indonesia has seen the evolution of new clades of virus, almost as fast as vaccines are adjusted to counter its genetic evolution. Now that could be down to viral evolution in wild birds, or it just could be being driven by vaccination itself, where 100% coverage is not achieved in the target animal populations. What occurs in animal populations is likely to be mirrored in human ones IMHO.
I think detailed and proper scientific study is warranted to answer this question, because it is an important one for us to know the answer to. If it should be proven to be a problem, the way forward would be development of 'universal vaccines' for each major pathogen we want to vaccinate against, so that the virus could be effectively eradicated - but that would take a lot of money and research. I doubt there is the financial incentive for companies to follow this approach, unless or until there is a clear need for it - which is all the more reason for the research to be prioritised, lest mankind is setting itself up for all manner of problems in our immediate future.
What you're saying (& appeared subjectively to me over several years) is the point of the quoted paper (Paradox of vaccination). While the solutions proposed in the paper are theoretically sound, as long as wild birds (& mammals) have any interactions with domestic birds (& others, like swine, horses, etc.) the theoretical solutions won't have the desired level of outcomes. It would sure help if cultures that prefer their protein "fresh" could learn to purchase it through frozen/refrigerated food chains. I suppose the "best" solution is that we all become vegan!
I truly question whether or not we can ever achieve a "universal" influenza vaccine. We may think we can overcome the HA variables, but influenza always seems to find a way to persist! I have more confidence in what we CAN control - prevention - through environmental factors and maximizing our body's immune system.
.
"The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation
Then we might want to be searching the Pearl river delta area which is about 500 miles south of Shanghai:
The river delta, also known as the Golden Delta of Guangdong,[1] is formed by three major rivers, the Xi Jiang (West River), Bei Jiang (North River), and Dong Jiang (East River). The flat lands of the delta are criss-crossed by a network of tributaries and distributaries of the Pearl River. The Pearl River Delta is actually two alluvial deltas, separated by the core branch of the Pearl River. The Bei Jiang and Xi Jiang converge to flow into the South China Sea and Pearl River in the west, while the Dong Jiang only flows into the Pearl River proper in the east.
"The Pearl River Delta (PRD, Chinese: 珠江三角洲; pinyin: Zhūjiāng sānjiǎozhōu), Zhujiang Delta or Zhusanjiao in Guangdong province, People's Republic of China is the low-lying area surrounding the Pearl River estuary where the Pearl River flows into the South China Sea. It is one of the most densely urbanised regions in the world and one of the main hubs of China's economic growth. This region is often considered an emerging megacity. The PRD is not a megalopolis but rather one rapidly forming megacity, and itself the southern end of a larger megalopolis running along the southern coast of China, which include large metropolises like Chaoshan, Zhangzhou-Xiamen, Quanzhou-Putian, and Fuzhou.
How do you ?lose? a river? The answer is ?quite easily?, apparently. China has lost more than 25,000 of them in the last 30 years.
In a survey, released by the country?s Ministries of Water Resources and Statistics, the number of recorded rivers with catchment areas of over 100 square kilometres had fallen to just under 23,000 compared with a figure of 50,000 in the 1990s.
These figures come at a time when the government is still trying to explain the discovery, earlier this month, of 16,000 pig carcasses, floating along the Huangpu River, which supplies much of Shanghai with its drinking water. In the last week 1,000 dead ducks were found dumped in the Nanhe River in Sichuan province......
.
"The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
I think the comment :
"There is no evidence that person to person transmission can occur"
is untrue. There may not be totally conclusive evidence or perhaps it doesn't occur like other influenza viruses. Certainly beyond what the authorities there publicly say their behavior as well as a few suspicious cases acknowledges at least the possibility it can and does occur:
Schools with cross-border pupils are responding to the risk by increasing their flu prevention measures. Some were conducting extra temperature checks while others have cancelled morning assembly to reduce the chance of the virus spreading among pupils.
The children of Pui Yau Kindergarten in Sheung Shui who come from the mainland underwent two additional temperature checks on top of the two regular ones they undergo along their journey to school.
"Children's body temperature fluctuates a lot in the morning and their fever may not be shown at first. We don't want to have anyone slipping through the net," said principal Poo Siu-fung.
The mainland children have their first temperature reading when their parents take them to board the school bus. The second one is while they are on the bus, the third when they cross the border, and the final one when they arrive at the school gate.
At Pui Yau, the school is being disinfected with bleach of a higher concentration than what is used during regular cleaning over the weekend.
Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?
when looking at the sequences
it looks to me that H7N9 evolved entirely in poultry after
that one introduction from a wild bird ~1 year ago.
From there it occasionally spreads to other species
but usually not sustained.
Maybe the concept of backyard poultry is not a good idea.
Can we give these people some other animals to raise and slaughter ?
Or genetically create the chicken that doesn't get flu
----------edit-------------
also confirmed by Peiris:
A Hong Kong professor who was among the first to crack the DNA code of the H7N9 virus suspects poultry farms are the direct transmission route of the current outbreak and it has little to do with wild birds.
evidence suggests wild birds do not play a role in transmission of the virus
Maybe the concept of backyard poultry is not a good idea.
Can we give these people some other animals to raise and slaughter ?
Or genetically create the chicken that doesn't get flu
Maybe genetically create children that don't catch it either?
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