Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

Genetic evolution of low pathogenecity H9N2 Avian influenza viruses in Tunisia: acquisition of new mutations

This paper reviews the imporant H9N2 mutations and table 5 and table 6 show the actual locations to be monitored in the internal segments (said to be similar to those in 2013 H7N9 human).

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[gsgs]

Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

http://afludiary.blogspot.de/2011/09/bangladesh-to-share-h9n2-bird-flu-virus.html

A/Bangladesh/0994/2011 (H9N2).

is not at genbank


I have a East China ~2010 H9N2 index related to this H7N9
2010 was probably somehow a bottleneck for that strain.
(~30 viruses from genbank)
I think all these related H9N2 should be compared to that index.
Maybe I can post it later today. segments 4,6 are still missing

[JimO]

Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

This is only true if we believe that the Chinese government is telling the truth regarding the actual number of cases and whether the contacts really are asymptomatic. I have my doubts.

humans are animals
no exponential increase of cases
hundreds of contacts are asymptomatic
cases connected to birds
the virus circulates in poultry in big numbers since ~1 year
(is it going to replace H9N2 ?)

[jflorida]

Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

I dont know, I think here, as a response to past criticism perhaps, they are being exceedingly open.

Anyway the form this next account and the use fo the term "wild poultry" I am wondering if this didnt originate somewhere else and if there is yet to be a cluster in people and/or animals, perhaps older, to be revealed in another region.


Bilingual: Jiangsu four cases of the H7N9 avian flu across the country have 2 deaths [ http://edu.qq.com/a/20130407/000100.htm ]


And Jiangsu Province, four cases of close contact with hundreds of people has not been found to have a fever or respiratory symptoms. Hundreds of people who have had close contact with the patients have not, as yet, developed fever or respiratory symptoms.

Ping Zijian, said the investigation in order to determine if the virus roots, identity background and living environment of the existing cases. He also adds, "The virus comes from pigs or other animals is unknown."

To determine the source of the virus, the identities, background and living conditions of existing patients will be investigated, Feng said. "It's unclear if the virus originated in pigs or other animals," he added.

The official said the poultry and pork in circulation in the local market is safe, but it is recommended that members of the public do not eat wild poultry.
Officials said poultry and pork for sale at local markets are safe, but people are urged not to eat wild poultry.

It is the first time the H7N9 bird flu virus has been found in humans, although three other strainsin the H7 family - H7N2, H7N3 and H7N7 - have previously been found in humans, but therewere no casualties.

[sharon sanders]

Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

It is very odd that no healthcare workers have been reported as infected. This casts doubt on their entire story.

What are the chances that zero health care workers have been infected especially in the early weeks when there was no diagnosis, isolation, containment...?

Last week the Ministry of Agriculture changed their position. Now - what do you know? Poultry, pigeons, possibly other animals, carry H7N9.

So after at least 8 weeks of human infections - now - they are instituting animal control and remediation procedures.

I would not believe them even if they admitted to human-to-human transmission. I want to see proof of that, too, with my own eyes.

We know the avian influenza routine. We know what "normal" government response is from watching Indonesia, Egypt, Vietnam, and China.

We know what the disease progression of avian influenza is in an outbreak situation. We have watched this for many years.

So China - listen up! - we are watching and we know what to look for.

[Giuseppe]

Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

In the meantime, H5N1 hits Bangladesh again xhttp://bdnews24.com/health/2013/04/07/first-bird-flu-death-in-5-years

[jflorida]

Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

Migration season is generally September to March each year on the East Asian Flyway. I imagine even in birds that dont migrate, they relocate within a region as conditions drastically change during the year.

Its not generally popular to implicate wild animals in disease spread but that doesn't change the reality that it plays a role. Avian influenzas are also devastating to many wild/endangered species.

[gsgs]

Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

so, now it's the lacking infects in healthcare workers.
All the years with H5N1 the message was: keep watching for infected
HCWs, that would ring the alarm bells

[Vibrant62]

Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

This report suggests the latest case in Anhui has resulted in some HCWs being placed under observation (see last sentance in bold), although I cannot determine the validity/ authority of this site as it appears to be an automatic machine translation and the ultimate source of the information is unclear, although all articles on this site relate to China. It would be useful if we can get some verification or a second report.

Anhui membership dye H7N9 patients still in the rescue any time of danger
April 7, Nanjing, Jiangsu Health Department announced March 20 female patients go to Nanjing treatment of a 35-year-old human infection with the H7N9 avian influenza by Chuzhou City, Anhui Province Mr. Han is still Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University for treatment, the condition is still very critical, life-threatening at any time.

Patients admitted to hospital, his condition is very critical condition. Zhongda Hospital treatment group established for this purpose, in the famous Chinese intensive medical experts, Critical Care Medicine Branch of the Chinese Medical Association chairman, the Zhongda Hospital Director of Critical Care Medicine, under the leadership of Professor Qiu Haibo, actively carry out treatment work early in the given invasive mechanical ventilation, the lung recruitment conventional treatment is still difficult to maintain oxygen saturation treatment group adopts the international advanced extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (referred to as ECMO, commonly known as artificial lung) respiratory alternative treatment, the patient's oxygen saturation and oxygen supply is maintained, and damage lung rest and protection at the same time, to give a positive anti-virus, phlegm, immune-enhancing, nutritional support and other organ support and maintenance treatment. go to Nanjing patients with pulmonary infection and injury is extremely serious, and septic shock and liver injury, given rehydration supplement effective circulating blood volume and use of vasoactive drugs to maintain blood pressure and tissue perfusion in patients with lung injury and improved shock and acute renal failure. taking into account the patients with severe infection has led to multiple organ damage, Zhongshan University Hospital for treatment group for the first time patients hemofiltration. course of the disease, due to the severe lung injury and combined with high cardiac output, treatment group also uses high-frequency oscillatory ventilation and prone position ventilation in the treatment, which is today's severe acute respiratory distress syndrome, the most effective means of treatment.

...

The hospital strictly take all of isolated protection and management of infection prevention and control work, 13 health care workers early contact with the patient under medical observation, abnormalities were found. [sic]

http://www.newshome.us/news-42...

[jflorida]

Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

There have been hundreds perhaps thousandths of workers and family in close contact with these cases. Were it in its most prevalent form generally capable of routine human to human infection and covered up till now the conspiracy would be vast indeed. Too vast to even worry about probably.

I was reading a story yesterday of a wife that cared for and had close contact with a sick husband for weeks with no signs of infection which I think is a rather common narrative in this.

[sharon sanders]

Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

Thanks Vibrant. I am having trouble with that link.

[Nika]

Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

Bottom line is that one can not use inductive reasoning - using questionable and incomplete data from China - to begin to say anything at all about this outbreak. Thats a waste of time.

The only interesting part of the story, from a scientific standpoint, is the sequence data.

[JimO]

Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

Ok, let's say there are not widespread H2H mild cases that are being overlooked or that the government is not supressing information. Then, we are faced with a virus that has recently jumped to humans simultaneously (within weeks of one another) in multiple locations separated by tens or hundreds of kilometers. How likely is this scenario? How does this compare with the emergence of H5N1 in humans? If all the cases were clustered near a single avian or swine host, it would make more sense. But, how did a mammalian adapted avian virus acquire the ability to infect humans suddenly over such a wide area?

I suppose one possibility is that there have been sporadic human cases over the past year or so that went undetected or were assumed to be pH1N1, H5N1, or some other strain and were never subtyped or sequenced.

There have been hundreds perhaps thousandths of workers and family in close contact with these cases. Were it in its most prevalent form generally capable of routine human to human infection and covered up till now the conspiracy would be vast indeed. Too vast to even worry about probably.

I was reading a story yesterday of a wife that cared for and had close contact with a sick husband for weeks with no signs of infection which I think is a rather common narrative in this.

[sharon sanders]

Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

Apparently there are not thousands of recent, unexplained/pneumonia/ILI deaths mentioned in any newspapers.

This is about the only thing I can say with some reasonable certainty.

To what degree, or willingness, does the government of China have to cover up deaths? And if they have this willingness, at what point does this become unmanageable? Probably in the thousands?

So can we assume that H7N9 is not killing thousands of Chinese?

[Vibrant62]

Re: Is H7N9 Spreading from Human to Human in China?

Thanks Vibrant. I am having trouble with that link.

Try this

http://www.newshome.us/news-4256173-Anhui-membership-dye-H7N9-patients-still-in-the-rescue-any-time-of-danger.html