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  • #16
    Re: CDC Recommended Flu Composition for 08/09 Season

    Niko:
    "... they had not tested a single case of suspected flu this season. I was told they don't test."

    That's perfectly on the trail with the "many", who likes to said:
    "Why testing, epidemic flu / pandemic, are un-stopable, no matter what you done".

    It will be better to do more early tests, and tried to shorten the evaluation/production period of new seasonal flu strain vaccines.

    Comment


    • #17
      Re: CDC Recommended Flu Composition for 08/09 Season

      Originally posted by niman View Post
      ..........a few more changes to make the H1N1 evolutionarily fit, so it can out-compete wild type, ........
      Could a more evolutionarily fit H1N1 effectively suppress H3N2?

      .
      "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: CDC Recommended Flu Composition for 08/09 Season

        Originally posted by AlaskaDenise View Post
        Could a more evolutionarily fit H1N1 effectively suppress H3N2?

        .

        that's what we see in pandemics.
        Also, there are some years, when H1N1 is dominant with only
        little H3N2 - until immunity builds up against that new H1N1
        and H3N2 becomes competitive again.

        Needn't be two different serotypes, this can also happen with
        different strains from the same serotype.
        E.g. Fujian flu H3N2 in 2003 which was almost a pandemic.
        Now it seems that that virus is gone.
        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: CDC Recommended Flu Composition for 08/09 Season

          Originally posted by AlaskaDenise View Post
          Could a more evolutionarily fit H1N1 effectively suppress H3N2?.
          God knows ...

          Comment


          • #20
            Re: CDC Recommended Flu Composition for 08/09 Season

            GS:

            I believe the norm is only one circulating strain, & the current 2 strains (H1N1 & H3N2) is a fluke.

            When has there been a pandemic from a currently circulating strain?

            Using past history, prior to antiviral use, may not apply now.

            .
            "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

            Comment


            • #21
              Re: CDC Recommended Flu Composition for 08/09 Season

              Originally posted by AlaskaDenise View Post
              GS:

              I believe the norm is only one circulating strain, & the current 2 strains (H1N1 & H3N2) is a fluke.

              When has there been a pandemic from a currently circulating strain?

              Using past history, prior to antiviral use, may not apply now.

              .
              Only changing is a biological constant ...

              Comment


              • #22
                Re: CDC Recommended Flu Composition for 08/09 Season

                one strain is usually dominant, but others may contribute a few percent nevertheless. Also flu-B which seems to be independent of flu-A.

                And inside one serotype there are often variants, strains which are too distant to be derived from each other within that season,
                so they were introduced independently.

                Last season, I estimated there were at least about 10
                independent introductions into USA.
                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: CDC Recommended Flu Composition for 08/09 Season

                  Next year's flu vaccine may get total overhaul

                  By Steve Sternberg, USA TODAY


                  All three flu viruses in this year's vaccine should be swapped for others next year because of a dramatic change in the mix of circulating flu bugs, a U.S. government advisory panel is expected to recommend Thursday.
                  The change, first proposed last week by the World Health Organization (WHO), marks the first time in years that health experts advocate a complete vaccine overhaul. A Food and Drug Administration advisory panel will vote on the recommendation Thursday. "I can't remember when we've changed all three," says Norman Baylor, director of the FDA's Office of Vaccine Research and Review.
                  Typically, public health officials recommend replacing one or two of the three viruses in the vaccine, because dominant flu viruses tend to circulate for a year or two before giving way to a new strain.
                  Deciding which viruses to include in each year's vaccine is a complicated task, Baylor says. It involves crunching information from 80 WHO collaborating labs worldwide to predict which of the viruses circulating during the winter in Asia and the Southern Hemisphere are likely to cause serious illness in the Northern Hemisphere.
                  The decision launches a "time-critical, highly orchestrated" effort by public health agencies and vaccine makers to produce roughly 100 million doses of vaccine in six to eight months a dated process that involves growing the virus in eggs, he says.
                  This year's vaccine protects against just one of three viruses that are dominating this year's flu season, now reaching its peak. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said last Friday that 44 states are reporting widespread flu activity, with cases mounting in five others.
                  "We thought we were going to have a pretty mild season until two weeks ago," says Nancy Cox, director of the CDC's flu division and the WHO center that oversees flu-fighting efforts worldwide.
                  This year's vaccine contains two influenza "A" viruses, from the Solomon Islands and Wisconsin, and a "B" virus from Malaysia. "A" viruses are the most dangerous, says flu expert William Schaffner of Vanderbilt University, while "B" viruses cause smaller outbreaks.
                  The current viruses that are in the vaccine have been around the USA for some time, so the population has built up immunity through infection and vaccination, Schaffner says. But influenza has the capacity to change, and as soon as it changes, people become more vulnerable. "Why suddenly there were changes in all three major strains is inexplicable," he says.
                  Only the Solomon Islands virus in the vaccine matched up with a virus now causing illness in the USA. Another "A" virus, from Brisbane, overlooked in the process of formulating this year's vaccine, turned out to be the culprit causing most of this year's disease.
                  Next year's recommendation calls for two very different viruses that were both isolated in Brisbane: A/Brisbane/59/2007 and A/Brisbane/10/ 2007, which is the version now widely circulating in the USA. The third component is B/Florida/4/2006.



                  http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/...e_N.htm?csp=34

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Extreme Makeover Planned for Flu Vaccine

                    <HR class=line2 align=left width=500>
                    <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=breadcrumptd vAlign=top colSpan=3>Home > News By Specialty > Infectious Disease > Flu & URI </TD></TR><TR><TD class=breadbanner vAlign=top float="left">
                    • Medical News: Flu & URI
                    </TD><TD vAlign=top align=left> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
                    <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=500 align=center border=0><!--startclickprintinclude--><TBODY><TR><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 17px; COLOR: #003399; FONT-FAMILY: georgia" vAlign=top height=40>
                    Extreme Makeover Planned for Flu Vaccine
                    </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
                    By John Gever, Staff Writer, MedPage Today

                    <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=500 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD style="PADDING-TOP: 10px">ATLANTA, Feb. 22 -- Next season's influenza vaccine recipe is set for a complete overhaul, but a CDC official downplayed speculation that delays or shortages could result.

                    The World Health Organization and an FDA advisory panel recommended this month that all three components of the standard trivalent vaccine be changed for the 2008-2009 season. Flu vaccines haven't been completely reconfigured from one season to the next in 20 years.

                    Two of the three strains recommended for next season had already been tapped for inclusion in vaccines for the Southern Hemisphere's upcoming season, said Nancy Cox, Ph.D., chief of the CDC's influenza division, at a press conference.

                    So, vaccine manufacturers already have some experience with them. "They're not starting from a totally clean slate," Dr. Cox said.

                    She was responding to news reports in which a vaccine industry official was quoted as warning of possible delays connected to the overhaul.

                    But Dr. Cox could not rule out the possibility. She said growth rates of flu virus for vaccine production are unpredictable, and it was too soon to be sure how easily the strains for 2008-2009 could be cultivated in industrial quantities. "Some strains grow better than others," she said.

                    The decisions on next season's vaccine drew special attention because of the apparent widespread failure of the vaccine distributed for the current season.

                    After a slow start, the season has rapidly become one of the worst in recent years.

                    Public health authorities in 49 states have reported widespread flu infections, Dr. Cox said, with only Florida spared.

                    Every region in the country is reporting elevated counts of clinic visits related to influenza-like illnesses and acute respiratory infections, she said.

                    And deaths are rising. As of Feb. 2, only one lab-confirmed pediatric flu death had been reported. The pediatric death toll has since spiked to 22, Dr. Cox said.

                    In terms of the percentage of total deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza, the tally topped 8% in February, its highest level since 2005.

                    Dr. Cox said the spike in infections began in January and is related to a shift in the mix of circulating virus strains. An H3N2 strain not covered by the current season's vaccine unexpectedly became predominant, she said.

                    Earlier, when infections and death rates were low, the dominant isolate was an H1N1 strain that was included in the vaccine, she said.

                    CDC's most recent lab data indicate that the H3N2 strain is accounting for about 63% of infections. Overall, Dr. Cox said, "[flu] activity has increased in the past week... but not quite as dramatically as we had seen over the previous two weeks."

                    </TD></TR><TR><TD>
                    Primary source: CDC
                    Source reference:
                    "Flu Activity & Surveillance: Reports & Surveillance Methods in the United States"

                    Additional Flu & URI Coverage
                    </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: CDC Recommended Flu Composition for 08/09 Season

                      Flu Quickly Claims Two Area Women

                      Posted on: Wednesday, 12 March 2008, 06:00 CDT
                      By Dawn Bormann, The Kansas City Star, Mo.
                      Mar. 12--A 53-year-old Lansing teacher and a 42-year-old Lawrence woman died last week after complications from influenza, their families said.
                      The women, who family members said were in relatively good health, developed pneumonia after experiencing flu-like symptoms for a few days.
                      Missouri and Kansas reported widespread flu activity Tuesday to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
                      The reported cases are slowly decreasing, however, health officials in both states said.
                      Shelley Brammer, a Bonner Springs woman who taught at an elementary school in Lansing, said she wasn't feeling well on Feb. 29. Four days later, she went to an emergency room and learned her left lung was filled with fluid. She died March 5 of pneumonia.
                      The death shocked her husband, three adult children and two grandchildren, who are still trying to make sense of how she died so quickly.
                      "We thought it was just your normal flu where you have that headache and just really don't feel good with aches and pains," said her husband, Duane Brammer.
                      That same week, Krista L. Wagner of Lawrence also was battling the flu. Wagner, who worked in the community relations department at St. Francis Health Center in Topeka, told her husband that she wasn't feeling well March 3.
                      The illness became dramatically worse the next day, and Wagner went to the doctor. She came home with medication.
                      By March 5 her breathing became labored, but she didn't think it was time to go the emergency room.
                      Her husband, Scott Wagner, stayed home from work to tend to her and their 20-month-old baby, who had a fever. The couple have two other children, ages 9 and 11.
                      <SCRIPT language=JavaScript> GA_googleFillSlotWithSize("ca-pub-5440138744487553", "News_Main_300x250", 300, 250);</SCRIPT>

                      Wagner checked on his wife throughout the day while caring for the baby.
                      On Thursday morning, her condition had worsened, and Scott Wagner insisted that his wife go to the emergency room. Krista Wagner was admitted and treated for pneumonia, but she died that night.
                      "There was just no indication that it was so, so severe," Scott Wagner said. "I just thought it was a really bad case of the flu, which it was."
                      It's also left him wondering what more could have been done.
                      "She had gotten a flu shot. She was religious in getting flu shots. She knew how important flu shots were," he said.
                      Scott Wagner said he wanted to share the story, believing it might help others get help earlier.
                      "It's not just a flu bug; it could be death," he said.
                      Duane Brammer, who had the flu at the same time as his wife, felt the same way -- he didn't realize the severity of his wife's condition until it was too late.
                      Since her death, Brammer said he's heard from countless friends and those she had touched as a teacher.
                      Duane Brammer said he fell in love with Shelley after watching the divorced mother of three hold down a full-time job, be a good parent and attend night classes to become a teacher. She did it all for her children.
                      "The children's life was her life. Everything revolved around the kids, especially the grandkids," he said.
                      And she loved her third grade students. She had taught in Lansing since the fall of 1995, he said.
                      The two women are among more than 1,111 people who have died in Kansas during this flu season, which runs from September 2007 to May 2008. In Missouri, the health department said at least 1,523 have died this year, including a 46-year-old teacher from Lee's Summit who died Feb. 24.
                      The statistics include people who have died from the flu, pneumonia or complications from both.
                      Health officials said school closings are lessening, and even emergency room officials report that traffic is starting to slow.
                      "It's starting to taper off a little bit we noticed this week," said Jeff Wilson, who manages the North Kansas City Hospital emergency room.
                      But that doesn't mean residents are in the clear. Flu season continues through May, and health officials say it's not too late to receive a flu shot.
                      And despite reports of patients such as Krista Wagner, who received the flu shot and still came down with the illness, the shot is effective, health officials have said.
                      Earlier this year, the CDC said the flu vaccine this season did not exactly match the flu virus that many patients are experiencing.
                      "But it still does provide protection," Kansas health department spokesman Joe Blubaugh said.
                      He urges residents to follow a few basic prevention measures.
                      Wash your hands frequently, cover your cough or sneeze and, "If you're sick, stay home," he said. "That sounds so simple, but that's the easiest way to stop the spread."
                      To reach Dawn Bormann, call 816-234-5992 or send e-mail to dbormann@kcstar.com.
                      -----
                      To see more of The Kansas City Star, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.kansascity.com.
                      Copyright (c) 2008, The Kansas City Star, Mo.
                      Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.
                      For reprints, email tmsreprints@permissionsgroup.com, call 800-374-7985 or 847-635-6550, send a fax to 847-635-6968, or write to The Permissions Group Inc., 1247 Milwaukee Ave., Suite 303, Glenview, IL 60025, USA.


                      Source: The Kansas City Star (Kansas City, Missouri)

                      http://www.redorbit.com/news/health/...ource=r_health#

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: CDC Recommended Flu Composition for 08/09 Season

                        Now there are THREE deaths in the same area from the flu.

                        Shelly Brammer
                        Krista Wagner
                        Stephanie Bentele


                        http://www.kansascity.com/news/break...ry/525902.html

                        Flu believed to have caused another teacher’s death

                        A second area teacher has died after being diagnosed with the flu.

                        Shelly Brammer, 53, of Bonner Springs, died suddenly last week. Her husband told KMBC Channel 9 News that she caught the flu and it kept getting worse.

                        She was hospitalized shortly before she died on March 5. By then, doctors said she had pneumonia, according to Channel 9 News.

                        Brammer taught at Sallie Zoll Elementary School in Lansing. She had three children and two grandchildren.

                        On Feb. 24, Stephanie Bentele, 46, of Blue Springs, died two days after being diagnosed with the flu. She was a teacher at Summit Pointe Elementary School.

                        Mike Rice, mrice@kcstar.com

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: CDC Recommended Flu Composition for 08/09 Season

                          The third death is slightly mentioned at bold.

                          Originally posted by niman View Post
                          Flu Quickly Claims Two Area Women

                          Posted on: Wednesday, 12 March 2008, 06:00 CDT
                          By Dawn Bormann, The Kansas City Star, Mo.
                          Mar. 12--A 53-year-old Lansing teacher and a 42-year-old Lawrence woman died last week after complications from influenza, their families said.
                          The women, who family members said were in relatively good health, developed pneumonia after experiencing flu-like symptoms for a few days.
                          Missouri and Kansas reported widespread flu activity Tuesday to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
                          The reported cases are slowly decreasing, however, health officials in both states said.
                          Shelley Brammer, a Bonner Springs woman who taught at an elementary school in Lansing, said she wasn't feeling well on Feb. 29. Four days later, she went to an emergency room and learned her left lung was filled with fluid. She died March 5 of pneumonia.
                          The death shocked her husband, three adult children and two grandchildren, who are still trying to make sense of how she died so quickly.
                          "We thought it was just your normal flu where you have that headache and just really don't feel good with aches and pains," said her husband, Duane Brammer.
                          That same week, Krista L. Wagner of Lawrence also was battling the flu. Wagner, who worked in the community relations department at St. Francis Health Center in Topeka, told her husband that she wasn't feeling well March 3.
                          The illness became dramatically worse the next day, and Wagner went to the doctor. She came home with medication.
                          By March 5 her breathing became labored, but she didn't think it was time to go the emergency room.
                          Her husband, Scott Wagner, stayed home from work to tend to her and their 20-month-old baby, who had a fever. The couple have two other children, ages 9 and 11.
                          <SCRIPT language=JavaScript> GA_googleFillSlotWithSize("ca-pub-5440138744487553", "News_Main_300x250", 300, 250);</SCRIPT>

                          Wagner checked on his wife throughout the day while caring for the baby.
                          On Thursday morning, her condition had worsened, and Scott Wagner insisted that his wife go to the emergency room. Krista Wagner was admitted and treated for pneumonia, but she died that night.
                          "There was just no indication that it was so, so severe," Scott Wagner said. "I just thought it was a really bad case of the flu, which it was."
                          It's also left him wondering what more could have been done.
                          "She had gotten a flu shot. She was religious in getting flu shots. She knew how important flu shots were," he said.
                          Scott Wagner said he wanted to share the story, believing it might help others get help earlier.
                          "It's not just a flu bug; it could be death," he said.
                          Duane Brammer, who had the flu at the same time as his wife, felt the same way -- he didn't realize the severity of his wife's condition until it was too late.
                          Since her death, Brammer said he's heard from countless friends and those she had touched as a teacher.
                          Duane Brammer said he fell in love with Shelley after watching the divorced mother of three hold down a full-time job, be a good parent and attend night classes to become a teacher. She did it all for her children.
                          "The children's life was her life. Everything revolved around the kids, especially the grandkids," he said.
                          And she loved her third grade students. She had taught in Lansing since the fall of 1995, he said.
                          The two women are among more than 1,111 people who have died in Kansas during this flu season, which runs from September 2007 to May 2008. In Missouri, the health department said at least 1,523 have died this year, including a 46-year-old teacher from Lee's Summit who died Feb. 24.
                          The statistics include people who have died from the flu, pneumonia or complications from both.
                          Health officials said school closings are lessening, and even emergency room officials report that traffic is starting to slow.
                          "It's starting to taper off a little bit we noticed this week," said Jeff Wilson, who manages the North Kansas City Hospital emergency room.
                          But that doesn't mean residents are in the clear. Flu season continues through May, and health officials say it's not too late to receive a flu shot.
                          And despite reports of patients such as Krista Wagner, who received the flu shot and still came down with the illness, the shot is effective, health officials have said.
                          Earlier this year, the CDC said the flu vaccine this season did not exactly match the flu virus that many patients are experiencing.
                          "But it still does provide protection," Kansas health department spokesman Joe Blubaugh said.
                          He urges residents to follow a few basic prevention measures.
                          Wash your hands frequently, cover your cough or sneeze and, "If you're sick, stay home," he said. "That sounds so simple, but that's the easiest way to stop the spread."
                          To reach Dawn Bormann, call 816-234-5992 or send e-mail to dbormann@kcstar.com.
                          -----
                          To see more of The Kansas City Star, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.kansascity.com.
                          Copyright (c) 2008, The Kansas City Star, Mo.
                          Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.
                          For reprints, email tmsreprints@permissionsgroup.com, call 800-374-7985 or 847-635-6550, send a fax to 847-635-6968, or write to The Permissions Group Inc., 1247 Milwaukee Ave., Suite 303, Glenview, IL 60025, USA.


                          Source: The Kansas City Star (Kansas City, Missouri)

                          http://www.redorbit.com/news/health/...ource=r_health#

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: CDC Recommended Flu Composition for 08/09 Season

                            Feb. 28 article. All 3 deaths are in the Kansas City area.

                            http://www.lsjournal.com/articles/20...news/02flu.txt

                            Flu may have killed elementary teacher

                            By Brett Dalton
                            The Journal Staff
                            Posted: Thursday, February 28, 2008 7:01 PM CST
                            The family of a Blue Springs woman who died unexpectedly last weekend believes she died from the flu.

                            Stephanie Bentele, 46, died during the early morning hours of Sunday, Feb. 24. She was diagnosed with the flu just days before her passing, said Leo Bentele, Stephanie's father.

                            Leo Bentele said on Wednesday afternoon the family had yet to see the death certificate and didn't know, as of press time, the exact cause of death. Leo Bentele said he is convinced his daughter died from the flu.

                            "She was diagnosed with the flu, and she was prescribed (an anti-viral) drug called Tamiflu and that's what she was being treated for," Leo said. "I don't know what else it would be."

                            A spokesperson for the Kansas City Health Department said on Thursday that they have not received any notification of a flu-related death. The Jackson County Medical Examiner's office said on Thursday that they have no information regarding Stephanie Bentele's death.

                            Funeral services for Stephanie Bentele took place on Thursday and her family could not be reached for further comment.
                            Michael Driks, a Kansas City area-based doctor, said it is possible for the flu to become so aggressive that it proves fatal. He said approximately 35,000 people die each year as a result of the flu. He added, however, that most flu-related deaths occur in young children,whose immune systems are not fully developed, and in the elderly, whose immune systems have weakened with age.

                            Driks said it's rare for a relatively young and healthy person like Stephanie Bentele to die from the flu.

                            "It's not common, but it's certainly possible," he said.
                            Stephanie Bentele spent 10 years in the Lee's Summit R-7

                            School District and taught at Hawthorn Hill, Cedar Creek and, most recently, Summit Pointe elementary schools. She also served as the K-6 Science Curriculum Specialist for the

                            R-7 School District.

                            Prior to teaching in the R-7

                            School District, Stephanie Bentele taught at St. Bernadette's School, a parochial school in Kansas City.

                            Heather Kenney, principal of Summit Pointe, said in a letter sent to parents that Bentele was popular and well-liked among students and staff.
                            "She was well known for her love of students and her irresistible enthusiasm for science," Kenney said. "Ms. Bentele was never without a smile and had a kind word for everyone. She will be dearly missed by her current and former students, as well as her co-workers at Summit Pointe and throughout the school district."

                            To honor Stephanie Bentele's memory, her family, in cooperation with the Lee's Summit Educational Foundation, has created a scholarship in her name. Contributions can be sent to the Lee's Summit Educational Foundation, designated to the Stephanie Ann Bentele Scholarship Fund, 301 N.E. Tudor Road, Lee's Summit, MO 64086.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Re: CDC Recommended Flu Composition for 08/09 Season

                              "She was diagnosed with the flu just days before"

                              Seems that the Australian fulminant last year seasonal flu cases, now taked foot wider.

                              Comment

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