NZ Swine flu might replace other seasonal strains

[Sally Furniss]

DEAN KOZANIC/The Press
PROTECTED: Michelle Bleeker and Ashleigh Waddell, registered nurses, abandon their usual attire for the safety of scrubs and masks at Christchurch's 24 Hour Surgery.
Virus rampant in Canterbury
By KIM THOMAS - The Press
Last updated 05:00 23/06/2009

Virus rampant in Canterbury
By KIM THOMAS - The Press

Cantabrians are being hit with a double whammy of swine flu and seasonal influenza as GPs don masks and gowns to stave off infection.

Canterbury virologist Dr Lance Jennings said the influenza season had "kicked in", with many cases of swine flu and the two strains of seasonal influenza being picked up.

Every year an average 400 people nationwide die from influenza.

It was likely, with the combination of the more contagious and nasty swine flu with seasonal influenza, that this year's total could be higher, Jennings said.

Within the next fortnight this influenza combination would hit the health sector, affecting its ability to care for flu patients and those with other illnesses.

Wellington Hospital, particularly, was already struggling with large numbers of staff off sick, he said.

Christchurch Hospital staff were reasonably well now but this was likely to change as influenza spread, Jennings said. It was estimated between 30 and 50 per cent of the population would fall ill.

It was likely elective surgery would have to be postponed if too many hospital staff became unwell, he said.

Elective surgery in Canterbury was cancelled for three weeks in 1996 when the region struggled with a particularly nasty bout of influenza, Jennings said.

Canterbury pandemic planning team adviser Dr Paul McCormack said that from yesterday every GP, pharmacist and district nurse was being advised to wear a mask and gloves while seeing patients.

"We want to keep our health workforce intact."

People with swine flu were contagious for up to two days before showing symptoms so health workers unknowingly be exposed, he said.

Medical staff would not be given Tamiflu to avoid getting influenza but it had not yet been decided whether they would be issued with it if unwell, McCormack said. Tamiflu could shorten the cycle of the virus and mean fewer days off work.

Health officials were relying on people to help slow the spread of influenza, and its effect on the health system, by being vigilant about personal hygiene, he said.

This meant frequent hand washing, containing sneezes and coughs and staying at home as soon as they became unwell, he said.

Disappointingly, some people with flu symptoms had visited Christchurch's 24-hour surgery over the weekend.

Mask-wearing staff were now screening people at the door to ensure those with influenza did not mingle with other patients, McCormack said.

The number of people in Canterbury with confirmed cases of swine flu yesterday remained at 93, although testing of all suspected cases has ceased.

Nationwide there were more than 300 confirmed cases of Influenza A (H1N1) infection, with two-thirds of cases confirmed in the past week.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/christchurch/2524969/Virus-rampant-in-Canterbury

[gsgs]

Re: NZ Canterbury, swine flu and the two strains of seasonal influenza

> Every year an average 400 people nationwide die from influenza.

0.01% of the population as compared with 0.012 in USA (36000)

> It was likely, with the combination of the more contagious
> and nasty swine flu with seasonal influenza, that this year's
> total could be higher

it is almost certain that it _could_ be higher. But is it likely
that it will be higher ? Last season (and th season before)
was already bad AFAIR.

> Wellington Hospital, particularly, was already struggling with
> large numbers of staff off sick,

how large ? More than expected ? Mor than in other years ?

> It was estimated between 30 and 50 per cent of the population
> would fall ill.

by whom ? I'm sure, there are other estimates

[kiwibird]

Re: NZ Swine flu could replace seasonal viruses

Swine flu might usurp other flu strains
By MICHAEL FOX - Stuff.co.nz
Last updated 13:30 23/06/2009


Swine flu could replace seasonal influenza viruses and return next year, a leading virologist says.

Canterbury virologist Dr Lance Jennings said health officials would have a better idea of whether or not it would return following the onset of the next Northern Hemisphere influenza season in January and February.

"I suspect it may well become established and may well supplant one or both of the currently circulating seasonal influenza viruses."

The last times this happened were with the Asian flu in 1957 and the Hong Kong flu in 1968. There have been two seasonal flu strains circulating since the Russian flu reemerged in 1977.

Dr Jennings said that once swine flu had moved around the world, it would cease to be viewed as "novel" and scientists would know more about its behaviour.

Though "no influenza was good influenza", a return of the swine flu virus could be a good thing.

"If it's associated with less hospitalisation and mortality, it's tolerable," he said, adding that it was the lesser of two evils.

However, there was no way of predicting how the virus would evolve, or judging the severity of its return.

It is estimated that about 20 to 30 percent of the population could be infected with the virus without realising it.

There was a spectrum of disease which ranged from people being exposed to the virus who didn't become infected, to people who were asymptomatic, through to those that developed pneumonia and died.

Anti-viral drug Tamiflu also acted as a prophylactic, masking symptoms until they had disappeared and allowing the person to develop anti-bodies.

"That could well boost that number [of cases] up because of the number of people who have been given Tamiflu."

The mortality rate of swine flu would likely be less than seasonal influenza, which killed around 425 people in New Zealand every year, Dr Jennings said.

Reports have suggested that less than 200 people are expected to die from swine flu though "the estimates that are being mentioned are an estimate and it may or may not be correct," he said.

There have been no deaths yet as a result of swine flu in New Zealand, though one woman is in critical condition in Wellington Hospital. She is described as morbidly obese with a history of respiratory illnesses.

As of yesterday, of the more than 52,000 cases worldwide, there have been 231 deaths so far.

According to the World Health Organisation, of the more serious swine flu cases, more than half of hospitalised people had underlying health conditions or weak immune systems.

Worldwide, annual seasonal influenza epidemics result in about three to five million cases of severe illness, and about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths. Most deaths associated with influenza in industrialised countries occur among people age 65 or older, the organisation says.

Swine flu was considered mild to moderate in most cases only in the context of influenza viruses.

"People say oh it's only causing mild disease', but you talk to people who have had it and they'll tell you something different."

Reports of a new swine flu strain being discovered in Brazil had been debunked, he said. There was no evidence of any mutation at this point, Dr Jennings said.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/2527068/Swine-flu-might-usurp-other-flu-strains

[HenryN]

Re: NZ Swine flu could replace seasonal viruses

Swine flu might usurp other flu strains
By MICHAEL FOX - Stuff.co.nz
Last updated 13:30 23/06/2009


Reports of a new swine flu strain being discovered in Brazil had been debunked, he said. There was no evidence of any mutation at this point, Dr Jennings said.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/2527...er-flu-strains

PB2 E627K was in BOTH Shanghai 71T sequences. It is quite real.

[kiwibird]

Re: NZ Swine flu might replace other seasonal strains

From AlaskaDenises post:

PB2/627K (replication temperature switch):
- more agressive infections - fewer "mild cases"

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?p=250379