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Source: http://www.exonline.com.mx/diario/no...l_casos/598506
13-May-2009
There could be 32 thousand cases
Alan Miranda
The actual number of infected by the virus H1N1 in Mexico could reach 32 thousand cases and a fatality rate of 0.4 percent, according to a study by researchers at the Imperial University of London and published in the journal Science.
This number contrasts with the official figures given yesterday by the World Health Organization (WHO), in which five thousand have been 251 cases in 30 countries and 56 deaths in Mexico, United States, Canada and Costa Rica.
The scientists reached this conclusion through analysis of existing information, which indicates that each infected between 1.2 and 1.6 infected persons, a transfer rate greater than the common flu, but smaller than the Spanish flu of 1918.
"Our study shows that this virus is spreading as expected in the early stages of a pandemic. So far, he has been following a pattern very similar to the influenza pandemic of 1957 in the proportion of people who are infected and the number of deaths we're seeing, "said Professor Neil Fergusson, who was in charge of project.
"What we are seeing is different from seasonal influenza and there is still reason for concern. We would hope that this pandemic has the double burden on our health system, "he added.
Most of the 32 thousand infections have been of an intensity so low that even would have required special medical treatment. However, four of every thousand people were killed.
Both the WHO and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention of United States (CDC) have recognized that the cases detected in the two countries may be only part of the whole.
"The Mexican health authorities are giving priority to the most severe cases for the preparation of exams. I fear that milder cases have not been tested yet, "said Dr. Nikki Shindo from WHO to a question by Exc?lsior during the press conference yesterday by telephone from Geneva.
Shindo also revealed that Fergusson's team has been working closely in the WHO, particularly in Mexico.
Another of the findings of the investigation was that the residents of the mountain village of La Gloria, Veracruz, considered by many to be the point of origin of the epidemic, 61 percent of those infected were children under 15 years.
The actual number of infected by the virus H1N1 in Mexico could reach 32 thousand cases and a fatality rate of 0.4 percent, according to a study by researchers at the Imperial University of London and published in the journal Science.
This number contrasts with the official figures given yesterday by the World Health Organization (WHO), in which five thousand have been 251 cases in 30 countries and 56 deaths in Mexico, United States, Canada and Costa Rica.
The scientists reached this conclusion through analysis of existing information, which indicates that each infected between 1.2 and 1.6 infected persons, a transfer rate greater than the common flu, but smaller than the Spanish flu of 1918.
"Our study shows that this virus is spreading as expected in the early stages of a pandemic. So far, he has been following a pattern very similar to the influenza pandemic of 1957 in the proportion of people who are infected and the number of deaths we're seeing, "said Professor Neil Fergusson, who was in charge of project.
"What we are seeing is different from seasonal influenza and there is still reason for concern. We would hope that this pandemic has the double burden on our health system, "he added.
Most of the 32 thousand infections have been of an intensity so low that even would have required special medical treatment. However, four of every thousand people were killed.
Both the WHO and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention of United States (CDC) have recognized that the cases detected in the two countries may be only part of the whole.
"The Mexican health authorities are giving priority to the most severe cases for the preparation of exams. I fear that milder cases have not been tested yet, "said Dr. Nikki Shindo from WHO to a question by Exc?lsior during the press conference yesterday by telephone from Geneva.
Shindo also revealed that Fergusson's team has been working closely in the WHO, particularly in Mexico.
The actual number of infected by the virus H1N1 in Mexico could reach 32 thousand cases and a fatality rate of 0.4 percent, according to a study by researchers at the Imperial University of London and published in the journal Science.
This number contrasts with the official figures given yesterday by the World Health Organization (WHO), in which five thousand have been 251 cases in 30 countries and 56 deaths in Mexico, United States, Canada and Costa Rica.
The scientists reached this conclusion through analysis of existing information, which indicates that each infected between 1.2 and 1.6 infected persons, a transfer rate greater than the common flu, but smaller than the Spanish flu of 1918.
"Our study shows that this virus is spreading as expected in the early stages of a pandemic. So far, he has been following a pattern very similar to the influenza pandemic of 1957 in the proportion of people who are infected and the number of deaths we're seeing, "said Professor Neil Fergusson, who was in charge of project.
"What we are seeing is different from seasonal influenza and there is still reason for concern. We would hope that this pandemic has the double burden on our health system, "he added.
Most of the 32 thousand infections have been of an intensity so low that even would have required special medical treatment. However, four of every thousand people were killed.
Both the WHO and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention of United States (CDC) have recognized that the cases detected in the two countries may be only part of the whole.
"The Mexican health authorities are giving priority to the most severe cases for the preparation of exams. I fear that milder cases have not been tested yet, "said Dr. Nikki Shindo from WHO to a question by Exc?lsior during the press conference yesterday by telephone from Geneva.
Shindo also revealed that Fergusson's team has been working closely in the WHO, particularly in Mexico.
Another of the findings of the investigation was that the residents of the mountain village of La Gloria, Veracruz, considered by many to be the point of origin of the epidemic, 61 percent of those infected were children under 15 years.
13-May-2009
There could be 32 thousand cases
Alan Miranda
The actual number of infected by the virus H1N1 in Mexico could reach 32 thousand cases and a fatality rate of 0.4 percent, according to a study by researchers at the Imperial University of London and published in the journal Science.
This number contrasts with the official figures given yesterday by the World Health Organization (WHO), in which five thousand have been 251 cases in 30 countries and 56 deaths in Mexico, United States, Canada and Costa Rica.
The scientists reached this conclusion through analysis of existing information, which indicates that each infected between 1.2 and 1.6 infected persons, a transfer rate greater than the common flu, but smaller than the Spanish flu of 1918.
"Our study shows that this virus is spreading as expected in the early stages of a pandemic. So far, he has been following a pattern very similar to the influenza pandemic of 1957 in the proportion of people who are infected and the number of deaths we're seeing, "said Professor Neil Fergusson, who was in charge of project.
"What we are seeing is different from seasonal influenza and there is still reason for concern. We would hope that this pandemic has the double burden on our health system, "he added.
Most of the 32 thousand infections have been of an intensity so low that even would have required special medical treatment. However, four of every thousand people were killed.
Both the WHO and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention of United States (CDC) have recognized that the cases detected in the two countries may be only part of the whole.
"The Mexican health authorities are giving priority to the most severe cases for the preparation of exams. I fear that milder cases have not been tested yet, "said Dr. Nikki Shindo from WHO to a question by Exc?lsior during the press conference yesterday by telephone from Geneva.
Shindo also revealed that Fergusson's team has been working closely in the WHO, particularly in Mexico.
Another of the findings of the investigation was that the residents of the mountain village of La Gloria, Veracruz, considered by many to be the point of origin of the epidemic, 61 percent of those infected were children under 15 years.
The actual number of infected by the virus H1N1 in Mexico could reach 32 thousand cases and a fatality rate of 0.4 percent, according to a study by researchers at the Imperial University of London and published in the journal Science.
This number contrasts with the official figures given yesterday by the World Health Organization (WHO), in which five thousand have been 251 cases in 30 countries and 56 deaths in Mexico, United States, Canada and Costa Rica.
The scientists reached this conclusion through analysis of existing information, which indicates that each infected between 1.2 and 1.6 infected persons, a transfer rate greater than the common flu, but smaller than the Spanish flu of 1918.
"Our study shows that this virus is spreading as expected in the early stages of a pandemic. So far, he has been following a pattern very similar to the influenza pandemic of 1957 in the proportion of people who are infected and the number of deaths we're seeing, "said Professor Neil Fergusson, who was in charge of project.
"What we are seeing is different from seasonal influenza and there is still reason for concern. We would hope that this pandemic has the double burden on our health system, "he added.
Most of the 32 thousand infections have been of an intensity so low that even would have required special medical treatment. However, four of every thousand people were killed.
Both the WHO and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention of United States (CDC) have recognized that the cases detected in the two countries may be only part of the whole.
"The Mexican health authorities are giving priority to the most severe cases for the preparation of exams. I fear that milder cases have not been tested yet, "said Dr. Nikki Shindo from WHO to a question by Exc?lsior during the press conference yesterday by telephone from Geneva.
Shindo also revealed that Fergusson's team has been working closely in the WHO, particularly in Mexico.
The actual number of infected by the virus H1N1 in Mexico could reach 32 thousand cases and a fatality rate of 0.4 percent, according to a study by researchers at the Imperial University of London and published in the journal Science.
This number contrasts with the official figures given yesterday by the World Health Organization (WHO), in which five thousand have been 251 cases in 30 countries and 56 deaths in Mexico, United States, Canada and Costa Rica.
The scientists reached this conclusion through analysis of existing information, which indicates that each infected between 1.2 and 1.6 infected persons, a transfer rate greater than the common flu, but smaller than the Spanish flu of 1918.
"Our study shows that this virus is spreading as expected in the early stages of a pandemic. So far, he has been following a pattern very similar to the influenza pandemic of 1957 in the proportion of people who are infected and the number of deaths we're seeing, "said Professor Neil Fergusson, who was in charge of project.
"What we are seeing is different from seasonal influenza and there is still reason for concern. We would hope that this pandemic has the double burden on our health system, "he added.
Most of the 32 thousand infections have been of an intensity so low that even would have required special medical treatment. However, four of every thousand people were killed.
Both the WHO and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention of United States (CDC) have recognized that the cases detected in the two countries may be only part of the whole.
"The Mexican health authorities are giving priority to the most severe cases for the preparation of exams. I fear that milder cases have not been tested yet, "said Dr. Nikki Shindo from WHO to a question by Exc?lsior during the press conference yesterday by telephone from Geneva.
Shindo also revealed that Fergusson's team has been working closely in the WHO, particularly in Mexico.
Another of the findings of the investigation was that the residents of the mountain village of La Gloria, Veracruz, considered by many to be the point of origin of the epidemic, 61 percent of those infected were children under 15 years.
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