A/H1N1 flu spreads easily -study

[Shiloh]

Source: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N11538600.htm


Mexican H1N1 flu spreads easily -study
11 May 2009 16:48:55 GMT
Source: Reuters
(For full coverage of the flu outbreak, click [nFLU])

*New strain may have originated in Mexican village

*More than 20,000 Mexicans likely infected

By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Editor

WASHINGTON, May 11 (Reuters) - The new strain of H1N1 flu that has killed 56 people in Mexico and been carried around the world by travelers appears to be more easily passed along than the regular seasonal flu, researchers reported on Monday.

As many as 23,000 Mexicans were likely infected with the swine flu virus, Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London and colleagues reported in the journal Science.

They also found evidence to support the theory that the outbreak originated in the village of La Gloria in the state of Veracruz, which had been the subject of intense speculation.

The international team, calling themselves the World Health Organization Rapid Pandemic Assessment Collaboration, looked at both the pattern of disease spread and the early genetic analysis of the virus.

"Our estimates suggest that 23,000 (range 6,000-32,000) individuals had been infected in Mexico by late April, giving an estimated case fatality ratio (CFR) of 0.4 percent based on confirmed and suspect deaths reported to that time," they wrote.

"Thus while substantial uncertainty remains, clinical severity appears less than that seen in 1918 but comparable with that seen in 1957."

The 1918 pandemic was the worst of the 20th century, killing anywhere between 25 million and 100 million people, depending on estimates. It was the first appearance of the H1N1 virus. The 1957 pandemic of H2N2 killed an estimated 2 million people globally. Seasonal flu kills about 250,000 to 500,000 people annually.

Looking at the pattern in La Gloria, the researchers said it looked as if the virus was transmitted human to human over 14 to 73 generations -- meaning one person infected another, who infected another, up to 73 times.

"Transmissibility is therefore substantially higher than seasonal flu," they wrote.

The first case was seen in La Gloria around February 15th, they wrote, citing reports and not hard evidence.

JAN 12 BIRTHDAY

Quick genetic analysis suggests the virus may have first infected someone around Jan. 12.

The researchers said other countries have had a better opportunity to watch out for the virus, a never-before-seen mixture of a Eurasian swine flu virus and a so-called "triple reassortant" virus seen circulating in pigs that includes some bits of human and bird flu viruses.

"As the epidemic spreads further, it is likely that severity will vary from country to country depending on health care resources and the public health measures adopted to mitigate impact," they added.

Globally, WHO has confirmed 4,694 infections in 30 countries with 53 deaths, all but four in Mexico. The United States has the most cases outside Mexico, with 2,618 cases and 3 deaths.

While it is widespread across the United States, WHO said the new H1N1 virus shows no signs of sustained person-to-person spread outside of North America. (Editing by Alan Elsner and Julie Steenhuysen)

[Shiloh]

Re: Mexican H1N1 flu spreads easily -study

Source: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LB737876.htm


WHO says no signs of community H1N1 transmission
11 May 2009 16:47:34 GMT
Source: Reuters

* No signs of sustained flu spread outside N. America

* Information flow crucial for countries to prepare

* Scientific definition of severity impossible

* Future development of disease uncertain

(Adds details, quotes)

By Jonathan Lynn

GENEVA, May 11 (Reuters) - The new H1N1 flu virus shows no signs of sustained person-to-person spread outside of North America where the infection first emerged, a top World Health Organisation official said on Monday.

Keiji Fukuda, acting WHO assistant director-general, told a news briefing it was too early to say whether the situation would stabilise or whether the virus would develop into a full-blown pandemic.

"We remain at phase 5," Fukuda said, referring to the agency's second-highest pandemic alert level. "It is still a confusing situation."

Fukuda defended the WHO's continued flow of information on the outbreak which some critics say has created unnecessary panic and disruption.

And he said it was not possible for the WHO to publish a scientific assessment of whether the new illness, widely known as swine flu, was mild or severe, as the disease kept changing.

"We know that we are seeing things change on an almost daily basis," Fukuda said.

"This is unfolding. It is still going on and we are still evaluating -- we are evaluating the clinical features, we are evaluating the epidemiology and the spread. We will continue to evaluate what is the impact on both people and countries."

Different people and different countries had different perceptions of what made a disease severe, he said.

"It's not really just a matter of how many people are dying but it really is a matter of how many people develop different effects of illness which can be considered severe," Fukuda said.

Health experts and governments had drawn lessons from cases of bird flu and the SARS outbreak, he said.

"The key to being better off is to be as prepared as possible," he said.

It was impossible to predict how the disease, which according to WHO's confirmed data has infected 4,694 people in 30 countries, killing 53 of them, would develop, he said.

Evidence that the disease had taken hold in communities outside North America would prompt WHO chief Margaret Chan to declare a full pandemic was under way.

"Really the threshold for community spread is when you begin to see people who are beginning to get infected and it is just not clear where they are getting it from. We are looking for that evidence that it is going beyond the buildings and it is out there in a different way," Fukuda said. (Additional reporting by Michael Kahn in London; Editing by Jon Boyle)

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Mexican H1N1 flu spreads easily -study

A reminder please! Despite the press use of the term 'Mexican Flu' it is prohibited here at FT. Use of H1N1 or swine flu are the accepted alternatives.

[sharon sanders]

Re: A/H1N1 flu spreads easily -study

Thanks Shannon!

[Giuseppe]

Re: A/H1N1 flu spreads easily -study

Links to Abstract and WHO press release: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...d.php?t=103618

[gsgs]

Re: Mexican H1N1 flu spreads easily -study

A reminder please! Despite the press use of the term 'Mexican Flu' it is prohibited here at FT. Use of H1N1 or swine flu are the accepted alternatives.

a new rule ?

[tropical]

Re: Mexican H1N1 flu spreads easily -study

"Really the threshold for community spread is when you begin to see people who are beginning to get infected and it is just not clear where they are getting it from. We are looking for that evidence that it is going beyond the buildings and it is out there in a different way," Fukuda said.

An ordinary plains hubs check up + temp., maybe could not be enaugh to slow it.

Maybe we face now an real probability that many of the policy makers are wrong, that the infecting asymptomatic period could be more than 2 previous days,
that the incubated infected person could be a even week maybe without temperature, and that only than exibit temperatures.

So in such doubt, to be more efective without infecting people uncountainably from "nowhere", would be an prudent policy to extend the quarantines to 2 weeks,
at least until more scientific proves confirm or deny such anomalies reported by patients cases in the news.

If the above is reality, this virus maybe have realy an general exercise from january maybe (as somewhere wroted),
because indeed there were an worldwide previous months strange apearances of pneumonias - without at all, or without only at the begining, of higher/high temperature.

Some even with an daily patern of an scheduled alternatively: non temperature, and after high temperature, for a week.

Having so much illnessed FT members reporting it personaly from infected areas, probably point to that it is realy an incipient pandemic, no matter the worldwide downplaying.