H1N1 has killed 2,837, virus has not mutated-WHO

[Tonka]

Re: H1N1 has killed 2,837, virus has not mutated-WHO

Here is a map of cases in Mexico through 8/25. There are many more cases in the Southern half of Mexico. Seems the drop in the intensity chart is due to lack of reporting like Mamabird said...

http://informacioninfluenza.jalisco.gob.mx/mapas/mapas/nacional?tipo=1

[Snicklefritz]

Re: H1N1 has killed 2,837, virus has not mutated-WHO

"In the best case scenario we have today, we will still have a moderate virus that is projected to cause several million deaths," Dr. Tammam Aloudat, senior health officer at the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, told a separate news briefing.

"Which means that even in the best case scenario, we do have an emergency on our hands, an emergency of a scale different from what we have seen before in the modern era," he said.

That's a pretty up-front statement. Additionally, WHO is reporting 2837 total deaths, with 625 occuring in the last week. That's 22% of all deaths to date occured in the last week. That's a sobering fact, even if all deaths are not being reported.

One area gets hit hard; next door buisness as usual. Taking a homogenous view of the pandemic is grossly missing the texture in the local details.

'All flu is local, don't get stuck on mezoscale numbers' - Snicklefritz

[Niko]

Re: WHO: swine flu deaths reach 2,837

Yes, I think that the confusion may be that her earlier post was for week 33. Week 34 just came out, so it would not have been available. If you go back to map week 33, Mexico shows high levels as she indicated.

So, I don't really think anyone changed the data. The data is for each week, not cummulative, so things change due to reporting by the respective countries. At least that is what appears to be happening. No conspiracy, folks.

I admit, I can be a sucker for conspiracy theories. Didn't mean to imply one here. My error was that I did not realize the maps were interactive (right click and click play to watch the maps change week by week). Here is the "shot" of week 33 - clearly shows high activity.

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[Mamabird]

Re: WHO: swine flu deaths reach 2,837

I think she meant that the map was changed. Week 34 had showed high intensity level for Mexico, but the original map in update 63 was altered.

I don't know if that is true, but I think that is what Rainbow Lake is saying - she posted her comments on the map as evidence.

Anyone have a screen shot?

Yes, I think that the confusion may be that her earlier post was for week 33. Week 34 just came out, so it would not have been available. If you go back to map week 33, Mexico shows high levels as she indicated.

So, I don't really think anyone changed the data. The data is for each week, not cummulative, so things change due to reporting by the respective countries. At least that is what appears to be happening. No conspiracy, folks.

[Niko]

Re: WHO: swine flu deaths reach 2,837

I think she meant that the map was changed. Week 34 had showed high intensity level for Mexico, but the original map in update 63 was altered.

I don't know if that is true, but I think that is what Rainbow Lake is saying - she posted her comments on the map as evidence.

Anyone have a screen shot?

See this map: http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/...N?OpenDocument

[Niko]

Re: WHO: swine flu deaths reach 2,837

I just went to these links, and the information seems to be there. Some weeks countries have no information to post, and other weeks they do. Since this is only a rough qualitative indicator of illness (not just influenza), I don't think I would read much into it.

I think she meant that the map was changed. Week 34 had showed high intensity level for Mexico, but the original map in update 63 was altered.

I don't know if that is true, but I think that is what Rainbow Lake is saying - she posted her comments on the map as evidence.

Anyone have a screen shot?

[Pathfinder]

H1N1 has killed 2,837, but not more serious: WHO

H1N1 has killed 2,837, but not more serious: WHO

Fri Sep 4, 2009 10:45am


GENEVA (Reuters) - The pandemic H1N1 flu virus continues to cause widespread infection in many parts of the world but is not becoming more serious, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Friday.

The WHO said it had counted 2,837 deaths worldwide but noted that not every case was being counted any more.

The United Nations agency is closely monitoring the strain, commonly known as swine flu, but said it had not detected any mutation which might signal that it has become more deadly.

"It is not causing more severe illness than before, there have been no changes in the behavior of the virus," WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl told a news briefing.

"We are continuing to see increased number of deaths because we are seeing many, many more cases."

About a quarter of a million cases have been laboratory-confirmed worldwide, but this is far fewer than the true number according to the WHO which has stopped requiring its 193 member states to report individual cases.

Its previous update of August 28 showed at least 2,185 deaths, meaning an additional 652 deaths were reported in the past week.

The virus could eventually infect 2 billion people, or a third of the world's population, according to WHO estimates.

Every year, seasonal influenza kills between 250,000 and 500,000 people globally, it says. But H1N1 is causing a year-round flu season and may infect more people than a usual seasonal virus, potentially adding up to more deaths.

"In the best case scenario we have today, we will still have a moderate virus that is projected to cause several million deaths," Dr. Tammam Aloudat, senior health officer at the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, told a separate news briefing.

"Which means that even in the best case scenario, we do have an emergency on our hands, an emergency of a scale different from what we have seen before in the modern era," he said.

The Federation, the world's largest disaster relief network, on Friday launched an information campaign to help the poorest communities reduce infection through simple hygiene measures.

H1N1, declared a pandemic on June 11, causes many mild symptoms, but has killed more people with medical conditions, such as asthma, or pregnant women, who should be treated with the antiviral Tamiflu by Roche Holding AG, WHO says.

PREDOMINANT VIRUS

Tropical regions of many countries in South and Southeast Asia are reporting "increasing or sustained high levels of respiratory disease," although Thailand has reported a declining trend, according to the WHO's latest weekly update.

In Latin America, countries including Ecuador, Venezuela, Peru and Brazil are reporting more respiratory disease, while outbreaks seem to have peaked in Chile and Argentina, it said.

Japan is seeing an early start to its regular flu season. In Canada and the United States, influenza activity remains "low overall," despite increases in the southeastern U.S. region.

Drugmakers are racing to develop vaccines amid experts' warnings that a "second wave" of the virus is approaching as weather cools in the northern hemisphere and the traditional flu season starts.

On Thursday, Novartis AG said a single dose of its vaccine might protect against the virus, raising hopes that potentially tight supplies could go further when mass immunization starts this month.

Hartl has called the preliminary results "encouraging," noting any vaccine that can be administered in one dose would substantially increase the number of overall doses available.

http://www.reuters.com/article/healthNews/idUSTRE5831VJ20090904?sp=true

[Mamabird]

Re: WHO: swine flu deaths reach 2,837

ANGRY & SADDENED AT THE WHITE-WASHING

When I checked the 4 September 2009 WHO report for "Intensity of Acute Respiratory Disease", I noticed that Mexico was grey, indicating that there was no information available. I thought "Isn't that sad.", because last week Mexico had reported very high levels of acute respiratory disease and I had thought "How brave of them"!

When I went back to a post I made last week (shown in bold below) to provide the 28 Aug 2009 link for comparison, I found that the WHO map had been changed. No longer did it show Mexico as having "VERY HIGH intensity" acute respiratory disease .............the country was now grey indicating no information was available.

How sad that health information is being manipulated! How sad that many countries are not being honest about the level of acute respiratory disease (H1N1) in their country! It makes me angry and tearful at the same time.

I just went to these links, and the information seems to be there. Some weeks countries have no information to post, and other weeks they do. Since this is only a rough qualitative indicator of illness (not just influenza), I don't think I would read much into it.

[Rainbow Lake]

Re: WHO: swine flu deaths reach 2,837

ANGRY & SADDENED AT THE WHITE-WASHING

When I checked the 4 September 2009 WHO report for "Intensity of Acute Respiratory Disease", I noticed that Mexico was grey, indicating that there was no information available. I thought "Isn't that sad.", because last week Mexico had reported very high levels of acute respiratory disease and I had thought "How brave of them"!

When I went back to a post I made last week (shown in bold below) to provide the 28 Aug 2009 link for comparison, I found that the WHO map had been changed. No longer did it show Mexico as having "VERY HIGH intensity" acute respiratory disease .............the country was now grey indicating no information was available.

How sad that health information is being manipulated! How sad that many countries are not being honest about the level of acute respiratory disease (H1N1) in their country! It makes me angry and tearful at the same time.

The alternative explanation is that WHO made an error in the initial reporting, but judging from the growing areas of grey, I do not think this is the correct interpretation. Political and economic considerations are overriding health considerations. I fear we all will pay the price for that decision.


POST ON FLUTRACKERS ON 28 AUGUST 2009

The most recent WHO update (update 63, 28 Aug 2009, http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_08_28/en/index.html) shows that Mexico is one of the two places in the world (at least of those brave enough to report it )showing VERY HIGH intensity* levels of acute respiratory disease*.


WHO MAP LINK to INTENSITY* OF ACUTE REPIRATORY DISEASE

* Intensity is an estimate of the proportion of the population with acute respiratory disease covering the spectrum of diseases from influenza-like illness to pneumonia (WHO's definition)

http://gamapserver.who.int/h1n1/intensity-population/h1n1_intensity-population.html

I fear that this could be Mexico's SECOND WAVE.

Will the second waves appear in order of first wave infection? Should we be looking at New York, Chicago, etc.for second wave activity?

[Tonka]

H1N1 has killed 2,837, virus has not mutated-WHO

http://www.reuters.com/article/americasCrisis/idUSL4442852

H1N1 has killed 2,837, virus has not mutated-WHO
Fri Sep 4, 2009 8:12am EDT

* Virus circulating widely, has killed at least 2,837

* Genetic sequencing shows no virus mutation, WHO says

* Red Cross launches campaign to avert deaths

(Adds WHO statement, Red Cross briefing, byline)

By Stephanie Nebehay

GENEVA, Sept 4 (Reuters) - H1N1 flu has killed at least 2,837 people but is not causing more severe illness than previously and the virus has not mutated, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said on Friday.The United Nations agency is monitoring the strain, commonly known as swine flu, to detect any mutation which might signal that it has become more deadly.

"There is no sense that the virus has mutated or changed in any sense," WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl told a news briefing. "We are continuing to see increased number of deaths because we are seeing many, many more cases."

About a quarter of a million cases have been laboratory-confirmed worldwide, but this is far fewer than the true number according to the WHO which has stopped requiring its 193 member states to report individual cases.

Its previous update of Aug. 28 showed at least 2,185 deaths, meaning an additional 652 deaths were reported in the past week.

The virus could eventually infect 2 billion people, or a third of the world's population, according to WHO estimates.

"In the best case scenario we have today, we will still have a moderate virus that is projected to cause several million deaths," Dr. Tammam Aloudat, senior health officer at the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, told a separate news briefing.

"Which means that even in the best case scenario, we do have an emergency on our hands, an emergency of a scale different from what we have seen before in the modern era," he said as the federation launched an information campaign to help the poorest communities reduce infection through simple hygiene measures.

H1N1, declared a pandemic on June 11, causes many mild symptoms, but has killed more people with medical conditions, such as asthma, or pregnant women, who should be treated with the antiviral Tamiflu by Roche Holding AG (ROG.VX), the WHO says.



PREDOMINANT VIRUS

Many countries in South and Southeast Asia are reporting "increasing or sustained high levels of respiratory disease", although Thailand has reported a declining trend, said the WHO's latest weekly update.

In Latin America, countries including Ecuador, Venezuela, Peru and Brazil are reporting more respiratory disease, while outbreaks seem to have peaked in Chile and Argentina, it said.

Japan is seeing an early start to its regular flu season. In Canada and the United States, influenza activity remains "low overall", despite increases in the southeastern U.S. region.

Drugmakers are racing to develop vaccines amid experts' warnings that a "second wave" of the virus is approaching as weather cools in the northern hemisphere and the traditional flu season starts.

On Thursday, Novartis AG (NOVN.VX) said a single dose of its vaccine might protect against the virus, raising hopes that potentially tight supplies could go further when mass immunisation starts this month. [ID:nL3450192]

Hartl has called the preliminary results "encouraging", noting any vaccine that can be administered in one dose would substantially increase the number of overall doses available. (Additional reporting by Laura MacInnis; Editing by Janet Lawrence)







? Thomson Reuters 2009 All rights reserved

[Tonka]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jTkkEKE5LtPih_5Jcc-3MpD0gOYQD9AGGH8G4

WHO: swine flu deaths reach 2,837
(AP) ? 30 minutes ago

GENEVA ? The World Health Organization says at least 625 people have been reported dead from swine flu in the last week.

The swine flu virus has caused at least 2,837 deaths since it emerged in Mexico and the United States earlier this year and developed into a full-blown global epidemic. Most of the deaths are in the Western Hemisphere.

WHO said Friday that laboratory-confirmed cases of the disease have now reached 254,206.

Spokesman Gregory Hartl says the figure far understates the actual number of cases because countries are no longer required to report each infection as the caseload is so high.

He says the number of deaths is growing proportionately to the increase in number of infected people.

Copyright ? 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved