FluView Week 37 2009

[wotan]

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

This new system was implemented on August 30, 2009, and replaces the weekly report of laboratory confirmed 2009 H1N1-related hospitalizations and deaths. Jurisdictions can now report to CDC either laboratory confirmed or pneumonia and influenza syndromic-based counts of hospitalizations and deaths resulting from all types or subtypes of influenza, not just those from 2009 H1N1 influenza virus. To allow jurisdictions to implement the new case definition, counts were reset to zero on August 30, 2009. From August 30-September 19, 2009, 10,082 hospitalizations and 936 deaths associated with influenza virus infection or based on syndromic surveillance for influenza and pneumonia, were reported to CDC. This is the third week of data from this new system and reflects reports by 52 jurisdictions. CDC will continue to use its traditional surveillance systems to track the progress of the remainder of the 2008-09 season, and for the 2009-10 influenza season, which officially begins October 4, 2009.

500-600 new deaths?

[wotan]

Re: FluView Week 37

They also report 9 cases of Tamiflu resistance. I believe the previous total was 8.

[alert]

Re: FluView Week 37

At least they are trying to give us an honest count.

I really expected them to only could confirmed cases, and at the end of the pandemic, there might be, say 2,000 deaths, and then people would think it was much milder than seasonal flu. If the CDC is going to try to track ALL flu deaths this year, we might get a far better estimate of the number of deaths in the US that any of us would have expected.

[gsgs]

Re: FluView Week 37

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/regions2008-2009/Images/senreg6.gif

big step up in region 6, Texas



regions 2(NY) and 4(GA) formed a peak already

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/regions2008-2009/hhssenusmap.htm

[wotan]

Re: FluView Week 37

It is actually 11 cases of Tamiflu resistance. I missed the footnote.

[Hogweed]

Re: FluView Week 37

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/region...es/senreg6.gif

big step up in region 6, Texas



regions 2(NY) and 4(GA) formed a peak already

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/region...hssenusmap.htm

You can't say anything has formed a peak based on one week of data. Also note that although ili rates across the US as a whole barely increased, deaths and hospital admissions seem to be heading skyward at an accelerating pace.

Do we have surveillance results for percent positives in the ili rates for this week yet?

[Hogweed]

Re: FluView Week 37

Do we have surveillance results for percent positives in the ili rates for this week yet?

Last week 18.2% positive, this week 23.9% from Flu Weekly for the US as a whole.

For Region 2, last week 3.6% positive, this week 3.7% positive. There doesn't seem to be much real swine flu in Region 2 right now so the data is likely very noisy.

For region 4, 20.7% last week 24.2% positive this week.

[gsgs]

Re: FluView Week 37

post peak in Georgia is also shown here:

http://isds.cirg.washington.edu/distribute/images/daily_counts_fever.ratio_gadoh_7.png

typical peak, we saw it in New York, New Zealand before
and multiple seasonal waves

[DataMom]

Re: FluView Week 37

I would expect a rapid rise in cases to a "peak" as a result of everyone coming back together to school at the same time in this region. Whether this is THE peak of the "wave" for the Autumn remains to be seen.

[Hogweed]

Re: FluView Week 37

post peak in Georgia is also shown here:

http://isds.cirg.washington.edu/distribute/images/daily_counts_fever.ratio_gadoh_7.png

typical peak, we saw it in New York, New Zealand before
and multiple seasonal waves

Yes but these waves were not the Northern Hemisphere Fall Wave projected to peak in mid to late October. If more and more ili rates continue to "peak" and decline for the next few weeks then I'll be much less concerned. Right now I wouldn't expect any region to get too far ahead of the curve if the "Fall Wave" late October peak is correct. Recall in 1918 the regional Northern Hemisphere "waves" managed to peak all over at about the same time in late October (even though some areas had occasional outbreaks and mini-"peaks" earlier) . Right now we'd still be just observing ripples on a slowly rising tide if that scenario replayed (for illness rates not death I sincerely hope).

[gsgs]

Re: FluView Week 37

region 4 was 4 weeks strongly going up now and now peaking.

typical flu-wave = 5 weeks up, 5 weeks down

other regions were only 2 weeks up and are now
forming a peak in the chart (regions 2,5) - that's less clear, IMO,
after only 2 weeks.

the regions are still very big when you divide the USA by 10.

Watching cities should be more instructive