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    Re: CDC Media Briefings on Swine Flu Epidemic in Mexico & USA

    USA. National swine flu alert: Obama White House explains, advises; full text.

    National swine flu alert: Obama White House explains, advises; full text

    [Original text: LINK. EDITED.]

    Homeland security Secretary Janet Napolitano

    Full text of the White House emergency swine influenza briefing by Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano (above); John Brennan, assistant to the president for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism; Dr. Richard Besser, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; and Robert Gibbs, presidential press secretary:

    MR. GIBBS: Good afternoon, guys. Thank you for taking some time out of your Sunday afternoon. We wanted to bring together many of the people that have the primary governmental responsibility in dealing with the situation and to discuss the government's capacity and capability to discuss the steps the government is taking to address this.

    Three people we'll hear from today and then we'll take some questions: First, John Brennan, Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism; Dr. Richard Besser, the Acting Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Janet Napolitano, the Secretary of Homeland Security. So with that I'll turn it over to Mr. Brennan.

    MR. BRENNAN: Thank you, Robert. And thank you, everyone, for coming here today. Obviously, President Obama is very concerned about the recent cases of swine flu that have been identified in the United States, as well as the outbreak in Mexico. The President's thoughts are with those who have been affected by this illness. He is monitoring the situation very closely and has supported a very active, progressive and coordinated response by his administration.

    The President wants Americans to be fully informed of the situation, which is why we have convened this press briefing today. The vast majority of these cases have occurred in Mexico. Building on the close bilateral cooperation that President Obama advanced during his recent visit to Mexico, he has asked me to publicly convey his full support to President Calder?n, the Mexican government and the Mexican people in their efforts to contain the outbreak.

    Both the U.S. and Mexican governments are taking steps to reduce the potential for further transmission. Our goal is simple: to communicate information quickly and clearly for our citizens, to rapidly address any new cases that emerge, and to have the capacity to effectively limit the spread.

    At this point a top priority is to ensure that communication is robust and that medical surveillance efforts are fully activated. This will enable both the rapid identification and broad notification of any new cases that may occur in the U.S., as well as in Mexico.

    We believe that our increased surveillance efforts have resulted in the identification of new cases over the last 24 hours. Early identification is vitally important to the overall effort. In the event that....

    ...additional cases or sites of infection occur within the United States we want to recognize them quickly and then respond rapidly with appropriate guidance for the public health community and the general public in the infected area.

    We also want to ensure medical surveillance and testing and the provision of medications and medical supplies are distributed where necessary.

    I would like to share with you some of the steps the administration has taken to ensure that information about this evolving event is flowing swiftly among federal, state and local partners, between U.S., Mexican, Canadian and other governments and with the World Health Organization.

    First, the President is receiving regular updates and briefings on the situation. I updated the President earlier today. The President has reviewed our national capabilities to mitigate the effects of a broader outbreak in the United States and the steps we are taking to support state and local governments and their public health experts.

    I am consulting closely with Secretary Napolitano, who is the principal federal official for domestic incident management with responsibility for spearheading our efforts. The Homeland Security Council has convened an interagency body of senior federal experts to facilitate coordination among the federal departments and agencies that have a role in recognizing, responding to, and communicating with domestic and international partners regarding health incidents that have the potential for significant impact to our nation's well-being.

    This group has been conferencing daily to share updates and to identify actions we can take now to respond to developments in an accelerated and effective manner. The information and decisions of the group are reported daily to senior leaders in the federal government and throughout the White House. Additional reports are provided as new information of significance becomes available.

    Mexico City citizens wearing mask against Swine Flu outbreaks

    While the President and his administration are actively coordinating the overall government response, individual departments and agencies with specific responsibilities as well as unique expertise and experience in dealing with public health risks are leading key elements of the effort.

    For example, the Department of Health and Human Services is responsible for the overall effort to coordinate disease surveillance, medical preparedness, and guidance to public health professionals in the event that further cases are detected.

    The Departments -- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has responsibility for identifying and tracking the spread of the disease and for communicating health-related information to the government, media, and public. To this end, the CDC has held regular public briefings since Friday.

    In a moment, Dr. Richard Besser, the Acting Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, will provide an update on the situation in the United States and Mexico, as well as where health professionals and the public can go for reliable information and guidance on swine influenza.

    As I mentioned, Secretary Napolitano and the Department of Homeland Security have the overall lead for coordinating the federal response to an influence epidemic in the United States. The department is closely coordinating with Health and Human Services and CDC to monitor the situation.

    After Dr. Besser speaks, you will hear from Secretary Napolitano, who will update you on the department's efforts to coordinate response preparations and actions to date. The Secretary also will describe actions that are underway to ensure communication of timely and accurate information at land borders and at ports of entry as well as to travelers who seek additional information.

    Clearly we all have individual responsibility for dealing with this situation. We should all be practicing good hygienic practices, such as hand-washing on a regular basis; if you feel sick, it makes sense to stay home; and then also following the other practices that are common sense when we deal with an outbreak of flu every year. I would ask that you hold your questions until after Dr. Besser and Secretary Napolitano have finished their remarks.

    DR. BESSER: Thank you, Mr. Brennan. First, I want to say that our hearts go out to the people in Mexico and the people in the United States who've been impacted by this outbreak. People around the country and around the globe are concerned with this situation we're seeing, and we're concerned as well. As we look for cases of swine flu, we are seeing more cases of swine flu.

    We expect to see more cases of swine flu. We're responding and we're responding aggressively to try and learn about this outbreak and to implement measures to control this outbreak.

    Let me provide for you an update in terms of where we are today and what kinds of public health actions are being taken here as well as abroad. Today we can confirm that there are 20 cases of swine flu in the United States. We have five affected states: There are eight cases confirmed in New York City, there's one case confirmed in Ohio, two in Kansas, two in Texas, and seven in California.

    And again, as we continue to look for cases, I expect that we're going to find them. We've ramped up our surveillance around the country to try and understand better what is the scope, what is the magnitude of this outbreak.

    The good news -- all of the individuals in this country who have been identified as cases have recovered. Only one individual had to be hospitalized. But I expect as we continue to look for cases, we are going to see a broader spectrum of disease. What we know about this virus is it looks to be the same virus as is causing the situation in Mexico. And given the reports out of Mexico, I would expect that over time we're going to see more severe disease in this country.

    There are some things that it's important people understand: Flu viruses are extremely unpredictable and variable; outbreaks of infectious disease are extremely unpredictable and variable. And so over time what we say about this and what we learn will change.

    Expect changes in terms of the number of cases. We're going to try and give you consistent information and have it on our web site once a day, so that we don't get into the situation where you're hearing different numbers of cases throughout the day -- we're going to report that daily.

    We expect that we're going to be changing our recommendations over time based on what we learn. And that's an important thing. You'll start to see different activities taking place in different parts of the country, depending on the local outbreak picture -- and that's good. You want people to respond based on what the situation is in their community, based on what situations are in particular countries.

    Because of this speed in which things are progressing, you will at find -- at times find inconsistent information, and we're going to work really hard to make sure that that doesn't stay up for long. But as we're updating recommendations and they're going out through various sources, you may find some inconsistency and we will work to minimize that.

    This is moving fast, but I want you to understand that we view this more as a marathon. We do think that this will continue to spread, but we are taking aggressive actions to minimize the impact on people's health.

    It's important that people understand that there's a role for everyone to play when there's an outbreak going on. There are things that individuals do, there's things that families do, communities do to try and reduce the impact. At the individual level, it's important people understand how they can prevent respiratory infections. Very frequent hand-washing is something that we talk about time and time again and that is an effective way to reduce transmission of disease.

    If you're sick, it's very important that people stay at home. If your children are sick, have a fever and flu-like illness, they shouldn't go to school. And if you're ill, you shouldn't get on an airplane or another public transport to travel. Those things are part of personal responsibility in trying to reduce the impact.

    It's important that people think about what they would do if this outbreak ramps up in their community. We understand that in New York City there's a cluster of disease in a school and New York City has announced that they're not having those children come back to school on Monday, so that they can understand better about transmission in that school.

    There's a similar situation in Texas. Those are very smart public health decisions. If there are other communities where we saw cases in a school, we would be recommending that they take those actions as well.

    So it's time for people to be thinking -- forward-thinking about, well, if it were my child's school, what would I do, how would I be prepared for that kind of an event. We view the public as partners in the efforts to try and control what's going on.

    There are a number of sources of information. I want people to know that the CDC web site -- www.cdc.gov -- has our latest information on swine flu. There's a link from there to very current information and there's a link there to a Spanish language site as well.

    So let me talk about some of the public health actions that are going on. We are working very closely with state and local public health on the investigations going on around the country. We're providing both technical support on the epidemiology as well as support on the laboratory in terms of confirming cases.

    We're also doing a lot of work with the World Health Organization, the Pan American Health Organization, and the governments of Mexico and Canada on this outbreak. There's a tri-national team that is working in Mexico to try and understand better the spread -- why are they seeing more severe disease in Mexico than we are here? That's a critical question.

    We're working to assist Mexico in establishing more laboratory capacity in-country. That, again, is very important because when you can define someone as a truly confirmed case, what you understand about how they acquire disease takes on much more meaning.

    We issued two days ago an outbreak notice on our web site regarding travel to Mexico. It indicated that if you are traveling to Mexico, that you look at that to see what precautions could you take as an individual to reduce the likelihood that you became ill. We're going to continue to evaluate the situation in Mexico, and if need be we will increase the warnings based on what the situation warrants.

    Later today we're going to be putting out some additional community guidance so that public health officials will know what our general recommendations are should they see cases in schools or additional cases in their community.

    And I think that the last thing I want to mention is that whenever we see a novel strain of influenza, we begin our work in the event that a vaccine needs to be manufactured. So we've created that seed stock, we've identified that virus, and discussions are underway so that should we decide to work on manufacturing a vaccine, we can work towards that goal very quickly.

    Our support to the states and locals will continue. We provide epidemiologic support, laboratory support, and we provide them support in terms of their medications and other material that they need to work on this outbreak.So thank you very much, and I'll turn it over to the Secretary.

    SECRETARY NAPOLITANO: Thanks, Dr. Besser. A number of things going on and the purpose of today, this briefing, is to give you the most current information about what is happening. And as has been mentioned before, this is a changing picture. And so we intend to conduct these types of briefings daily for a while so that, you know, it can help up communicate to the public what is happening and so that with knowledge people know what kind of issue we're dealing with.

    The first thing I want to announce today is that the Department of Health and Human Services will declare today a public health emergency in the United States. That sounds more severe than really it is. This is standard operating procedure and allows us to free up federal, state, and local agencies and their resources for prevention and mitigation; it allows us to use medication and diagnostic tests that we might not otherwise be able to use, particularly on very young children; and it releases funds for the acquisition of additional antivirals.

    So you'll see those declarations coming out today. And when I say "standard operating procedure," that's exactly what I mean. We issued similar declarations for the recent floods in Minnesota and North Dakota and for the inauguration.

    Second, I want to give you some information about where we are with respect to antiviral drugs. These are the kinds of things you would take should you get sick with this strain of flu. We have 50 million treatment courses of antiviral drugs -- Tamiflu and Relenza -- in the strategic national stockpile. We are releasing 25 percent of those courses, making them available to all of the states, but particularly prioritizing the states where we already have confirmed incidents of the flu.

    In addition, the Department of Defense has procured and strategically prepositioned 7 million treatment courses of Tamiflu.

    The United States Department of Agriculture is heavily involved in monitoring and testing to ensure that there is no issue with our food supply, and everything looks fine. I want to underscore that you cannot get the swine flu from eating pork. So that's very important. And we're screening and testing livestock to monitor any developments there.

    Next, in the Department of Homeland Security, we have a number of components with direct responsibility here. The CBP is inventorying for every duty station and every employee our resources, personal protective equipment, and so forth, to make sure that we have adequate supplies on hand at the borders themselves.

    Secondly, we have implemented passive surveillance protocols to screen individuals who may arrive at our borders. All persons entering the United States from a location of human infection of swine flu will be processed through all appropriate CBP protocols. Right now those are passive.

    That means that they're looking for people who -- and asking about, are you sick, have you been sick, and the like; and if so, then they can be referred over for further examination.

    Travelers who do present with symptoms, if and when encountered, will be isolated per established rules. They will be provided both with personal protective equipment and we will continue to emphasize universal health measures like hand-washing and gloves. And if and when the situation develops all CBP sites can implement and we can deploy additional personnel to the borders.

    In addition, at the TSA, many of the similar measures are being implemented there with respect to the protection of our TSA workers and also their experience with travelers. To date, the State Department has not issued official travel advisories for particularly Mexico, but again, as I said earlier, these situations are very fluid and so you need to keep up to date on that.

    In addition to the CDC website, the Department of State has a website that will keep travelers posted on what the situation is not only with our neighboring countries, but with countries around the world.

    As I said earlier, our intent is to update you daily on this situation so that you can know what is happening within the federal government. State and local governments obviously now are in the loop. State and local public health authorities obviously are working very hard and will be working hard, because as the doctor said, this will be a marathon, not a sprint, and even if this outbreak is a small one, we can anticipate that we may have a subsequent or follow-on outbreak several months later, which we will be prepared for.

    And again, the government can't solve this alone. We need everybody in the United States to take some responsibility here. If you are sick, stay home. Wash your hands, take all of those reasonable measures; that will help us mitigate, contain how many people actually get sick in our country.Thank you.

    MR. GIBBS: With that, let's take a few questions.

    Q Thanks, Robert. Are there any U.S. clusters that suggest this is easily spread? Have we seen any pockets of suspected cases in the U.S. that suggest this could be on the scale of Mexico? And you say it's a marathon. How long is this marathon going to be?

    DR. BESSER: Thanks for those questions. In terms of duration, my comment earlier about every outbreak is unique is really important to remember. And so it's very hard to say. There's one thing in our favor; we're nearing the end of the flu season, we're nearing the end of the season in which flu viruses tend to transmit very easily. And so we would expect to see a decline in cases, just like we're seeing a decline in cases of seasonal flu, at some point.

    The issue of clusters is an important one, and New York City earlier talked about their school cluster, and that's important. Some of our early epidemiologic investigations are showing that contacts of people who have been diagnosed have a significant rate of respiratory infection -- not confirmed to be this; we only have one documented by viral isolate case in this country of person-to-person spread -- and that was an individual who had gone to Mexico and came back, and then there was a spouse who was diagnosed as well, and both are doing well.

    Q Robert, how concerned are you about the potential for this outbreak to set back the hopeful economic recovery both here in the United States and globally? And secondly, what if anything are we meant to read into the fact the President Obama decided to go golfing today? Is this part of your effort to reassure Americans that there's no need to panic?

    MR. GIBBS: I'm not sure I would draw a direct conclusion between the news today and the President's golf. (Laughter.) I think as Mr. Brennan said, the President has been updated regularly on this and we'll continue to do so as we will continue to regularly update you.

    In terms of anything that is affected economically both here and worldwide, I think it's probably far too early to determine whether that will be a case or whether that will have some factor. We just want to ensure that people understand the steps that are being taken both here and throughout government to address the situation, as well as, as each of these speakers have said, understand the individual responsibilities that people have.

    If you have questions, go to the CDC website at cdc.gov. And as the doctor mentioned, there's also a Spanish version of that site.

    Q First to you, Robert. Why was it necessary to have the President checked this morning?

    MR. GIBBS: The President hasn't been checked this morning.

    Q Ms. Jarrett indicated today on a Sunday morning program that he had been.

    MR. GIBBS: I will double-check. I don't know of any reason why he would have been.

    Q And Dr. Besser --

    MR. GIBBS: Let me expand that a little bit. I think these guys obviously have more medical degrees than I do, but the incubation period for this is a 24-48 hour incubation period. The doctors advised us that the President's health was never in any danger. We've been gone from Mexico for now more than nine days.

    Q Dr. Besser, you mentioned seed stock for vaccines. What is the threshold that you have to meet before you consider developing that vaccine and deploying that vaccine?

    DR. BESSER: There are a number of things that we look at going into the decision as to whether to make a vaccine. One is the severity of the strain, its sustainability in the community; do we anticipate that it's a virus that will be here next flu season -- so you want to prepare for that. Then there are issues in terms of production.

    Currently manufacturers are working on seasonal flu vaccine for next season, which has three types of influenza virus -- or influenza antigen in it. We have to have discussions to determine could they add a fourth; would it require substituting or changing production in another way? All of those discussions are underway, so that if there's a decision to move in that direction we'd be ready.

    Q I notice that you're not recommending that people, even if they're ill, become vaccinated. Has the President been vaccinated by Tamiflu or Relenza? And at what level does this have to get before we go from a public health emergency to a federal pandemic plan?

    DR. BESSER: I wanted to clarify a couple things you said. Oseltamivir and zanamavir are not vaccines. Those are antiviral drugs that can be used to treat somebody who is ill.

    One of the points I didn't make before is that if someone is ill with flu-like symptoms, in particular if they've traveled to an area that's been involved, they need to contact their doctor and determine what type testing and treatment is indicated.

    At this point there is not a vaccine for this swine flu strain. It's a new strain of influenza. And so what we're talking about is whether it's warranted at this point to move toward manufacturing a vaccine.

    Q Two questions. First, I want to know if the public health emergency declaration allows the federal government to invoke any kind of quarantine powers. And if so, how would that be used? And second, we've been hearing for years that we could have another 1918-like pandemic. So based on what you know right now, how likely is it that this could be a very, very severe outbreak?

    SECRETARY NAPOLITANO: The public health declaration does not, in and of itself, convey quarantine authority. And most quarantine authority is held at the local and state level, and we're nowhere near that sort of a decision.

    The decisions that have been made to date are the common-sense ones, the few places where we've had a U.S. outbreak, to close a school here, close a school there. But most quarantine authority is held at the state and local level. And this declaration does not, in and of itself, provide that.

    DR. BESSER: The other part of your question had to do with 1918 and what we're seeing here. One of the very important issues that we're looking at is how severe is this outbreak that's taking place. What we're seeing in this country so far is not anywhere near the severity of what we're hearing about in Mexico, and we need to understand that.

    It's also important to recognize that there have been enormous efforts going on around the country and around the world for pandemic preparedness and that our detection of this strain in the United States really came out as part of that.

    There was work going on in San Diego in terms of developing a point of care test kit, something that could be used in doctors' offices, that detected a strain they couldn't identify, and that was identified in our laboratories as the swine flu strain.

    And so that -- really some of the preparedness activities, the laboratory capability that we have now is not what it was five years ago, let alone in 1918. We understand a lot about how flu should be managed and treated.

    Q And if I could just follow with one other question. Relenza and Tamiflu, how effective are they in treating this particular strain, if at all?

    DR. BESSER: At this point, it's premature to talk about how effective they are. Those are some of the studies that we would want to undertake and assist Mexico in undertaking. We do know from seasonal flu that early treatment with antivirals can shorten the course of illness. But in terms of this situation, we know that the strain is susceptible, it's not resistant to those drugs.

    It is resistant to other drugs, amantadine and rimantadine. But it's not resistant to oseltamivir and zanamavir, which are the drugs that we've been stockpiling.

    SECRETARY NAPOLITANO: I just wanted to clarify -- on the declaration of emergency, I wish we could call it declaration of emergency preparedness, because that's really what it is in this context. It's similar to what we do, for example, when we know -- when a hurricane may be approaching a site, we will go ahead and issue an emergency declaration that allows us to preposition -- frees up money, resources to get pre-positioned, to get ready.

    A hurricane may not actually hit a particular landfall, but it allows you to undertake a number of preparatory steps. And really that's what we're doing right now, the government. We're leaning forward, we're preparing in an environment where we really don't know ultimately what the size or seriousness of this outbreak is going to be.

    Q Dr. Besser, you said we were likely to see more cases and the CDC's Dr. Ann Schuchat said yesterday, "We do not think we can contain the spread of this virus." What exactly does that mean?

    DR. BESSER: In strategies for outbreak control there's a concept of containment where if you can detect it very quickly in one community, that you could swoop in and try and quench it and knock it out so it doesn't go further. We don't think that that's a possibility, but we do think that it's very possible to mitigate or reduce the impact of this infection around the country.

    In terms of detection, what we're seeing in this country is mild disease -- things that would never have been detected if we weren't ramping up our surveillance. And so my comment there is that by our efforts of asking doctors to culture -- we are asking doctors when they see someone who has flu-like illness who has traveled to an affected region to do a culture -- take a swab in their nose and send it to the lab so we can see, is it influenza, is it this type. And I expect that as we do that we're going to find cases all -- in many different parts.

    When I mentioned the states we're seeing cases in right now, they're not all contiguous. The travel patterns of people now are such that we would expect that we're going to see cases in more states.

    Q If I could follow up on that, is it true that it took a week until after Mexico had invoked its own protective measures before the U.S. was notified of this? And is it a significant concern that HHS is in charge of this at a time when it doesn't have a Secretary?

    DR. BESSER: In terms of detection and reporting, you know, the confirmation of swine flu from Mexico was shared with us immediately. There was great collaboration between Canada and Mexico on doing that testing. I'm in daily communication with their public health leadership and the collaborations have been absolutely superb. We share information about what we're seeing here and they're sharing information about what they're seeing in Canada and in Mexico.

    Q They sent those tests to Canada rather than the U.S., apparently because of paperwork.

    DR. BESSER: Well, we have -- there are quite a number of isolates that we've tested here from Mexico as well.

    MR. GIBBS: In terms of a Secretary, I think these guys have given you a pretty good indication of the response mechanisms that are in place and that have been activated relating to this. So I think it's all hands on deck and we're doing fine. I would say we're hopeful that we have a new Secretary very shortly.

    Yes, ma'am.

    Q Secretary Napolitano, I believe Japan and South Korea have both now announced that they're going to begin testing on passengers coming in from the U.S. Why is the U.S. not doing that with passengers coming in from Mexico? And then also, do you have any indications -- I know it's still very early yet -- but any indications that perhaps this might have been caused by bioterrorism, this new strain of flu?

    SECRETARY NAPOLITANO: I'll let John answer the second part. With respect to that, we're doing, as I said, passive surveillance now. Right now we don't think the facts warrant a more active testing or screening of passengers coming in from Mexico, although obviously we are letting air carriers and our employees at the gates on those flights make sure that they are asking people if they're sick; and if they're sick, that they shouldn't board the plane -- you know, that sort of thing, passively.

    But again, this is a changing dynamic that we may increase or decrease that as the facts change over the next 24, 48, 72 hours.

    DR. BESSER: Yes, the question about the strain that we're seeing here, we analyzed that strain and are continuing to do further analysis of that strain and we expect to see the emergence of new flu strains.

    That's something that we are continually watching for to ensure that we're ready should a strain emerge that there's not immunity and protection in the community for it. This strain is not unlike other new strains that have emerged. It's an assortment -- it's got genetic components from a number of sources, including human, swine, and avian sources. And that's something that you see with new strains.

    And so there's nothing that we have seen in our work that would suggest anything but a naturally occurring event.

    Q But from a security perspective, nothing to rule it out either -- the possibility of bioterrorism?

    MR. BRENNAN: We are looking at all different aspects here, but as the doctor said, there is no evidence whatsoever that we have seen. But clearly, in order to make sure that we're doing everything possible, we're looking at all potential explanations here -- but no evidence whatsoever on the bioterrorism --

    Q How do the -- Madam Secretary, how do the stocks of effective antivirals today compare to previous outbreaks -- SARS, for example? And will DOD stocks be available for the public, or are those just for DOD?

    SECRETARY NAPOLITANO: Right now the DOD stocks I believe are for the DOD personnel, but I'll have to confirm that for you later. I believe that to be the case. We have 50 million courses that are in the national stockpile.

    As I said, we're freeing up a quarter of those for use by the states, in addition to whatever state stockpiles they have, should they need it. Priority will go to the states that have confirmed outbreaks of disease. And I don't have the history on how that compares to what we had on hand for SARS.

    DR. BESSER: The strategic national stockpile has considerable assets for treating flu. In addition to the antivirals, there's the supplies should we see hospitalizations that would warrant support. SARS is a different picture in that there were -- there was not a medication that people could take to treat it, and so this is a very different situation.

    And as part of our planning for a large outbreak this pre-deployment of availability is a leaning-forward step. We know that many states aren't seeing any cases, but it was our belief that having things there ahead of time was the way to go, rather than waiting until it got to a point where people were asking.

    Q Secretary Napolitano, you mentioned the quarantine power and, you know, that's really a state and local issue. What additional authority does the President have, what other powers does he have to contain this, to mitigate it, whatever. What else can he do?

    SECRETARY NAPOLITANO: I don't want to give you a legal brief on that right now, but that's --

    Q Perhaps later? (Laughter.)

    SECRETARY NAPOLITANO: Yes, exactly. (Laughter.) We want to make sure that it's very precisely explained to you and to the public. So perhaps we could brief that to you later on this week.

    Q But there are additional things? You guys are confident that -- measures that you can take, beyond a declaration of emergency -- things that you can do at the federal level?

    SECRETARY NAPOLITANO: Yes.

    Q Okay. And Robert, actually, can you follow up on that eco question, on the eco trade. I just want to be clear, you're not at all studying this, measuring what sort of effect this could have economically -- you're just not at that level yet?

    MR. GIBBS: I'll check with NEC. I don't know of anything related to that at this point, but we can certainly check.Yes, ma'am.

    Q What haven't you banned U.S. travel to Mexico and why haven't you changed the U.S. alert level in the face of this -- unless the declaration of public health emergency is doing that?

    DR. BESSER: I can comment. We have at CDC posted an outbreak notification regarding Mexico, and we're continuing to watch the situation there and evaluate. And should it be warranted, we would make a change in that regard.

    In terms of the stages and phases of pre-pandemic situations, the real important take-away is that we have an outbreak of a new infectious disease that we're approaching aggressively. And it matters much less what you call it.

    Those things are designed to trigger actions, but we trigger our actions based on what we're seeing here in-country as well as what we see around the globe. And given that this new strain is something we're experiencing here on the ground, we're being very aggressive and addressing that based on what we're seeing in each community.

    Q What has been discovered so far about why people in Mexico have died, but not elsewhere?

    DR. BESSER: That's an unanswered question. We have folks on the ground and we haven't been able to find an answer for that. There are a number of different hypotheses and I'm hoping that we'll be able to shed some light on that as these teams get more established and continue their studies.

    Q For Dr. Besser, is there evidence of ongoing transmission in Mexico, or are the cases being picked up there ones that happened in the last couple of weeks and are over? Or are there new chains of transmission being generated?

    DR. BESSER: Again, I don't want to comment on the situation on the ground in Mexico. I've not heard that it is stopping. Their overall flu surveillance is only showing a small increase from what they would see annually, which, again, makes it difficult to use some of the surveillance tools to measure the impact of a new strain when you're in the midst of another flu season.

    Q Just to follow up on what the President -- for you, Robert -- what the President -- did you say that he has not been treated with any kind of --

    MR. GIBBS: I said yesterday that he had not been. I will recheck with the doctor. Again, based on the incubation period, neither he, nor anybody that he traveled with, nor anybody in the press corps that I'm aware of would have exhibited any symptoms that would have caused any heightened awareness.

    Q But the doctor didn't check him out --

    MR. GIBBS: No. Again, in the absence of symptoms -- I think this probably goes without saying, too -- in the absence of symptoms, you shouldn't go get tested. That's going to crowd any sort of either public health or private health infrastructure.

    If you are sick or you do have symptoms, then you should take precautions. But there's not reason to believe that his -- or anybody that traveled with him -- health was in any sort of jeopardy.

    Q Just to follow up on the HHS question. Apparently, HHS --- CDC, Surgeon General assured there are no --

    MR. GIBBS: I thought he was doing a pretty good job. (Laughter.)

    Q But it raises a political question about how movement there has been stalled because of HHS. I mean, do you have -- has the President expressed concern about the fact that you don't have a team in place there, or at the --

    MR. GIBBS: No, because -- I want to be very clear here. There is a team in place. The team is -- part of it is standing behind me, and part of it is working as we speak to identify exactly what the doctor and others have talked about. I think this notion somehow that if there's not currently a Secretary, that there's not the function that needs to take place in order to prepare for this either this or any other situation is just simply not the case. Thanks, guys. ###
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    Comment


    • #32
      Re: CDC & White House Media Briefings on Swine Flu Epidemic

      CDC Teleconference press briefing

      Press Briefing Transcripts

      CDC Media Availability on Human Swine Influenza Cases

      April 27, 2009, 1 p.m. EST

      Press Briefing Transcripts
      "In the beginning of change, the patriot is a scarce man (or woman https://flutrackers.com/forum/core/i...ilies/wink.png), and brave, and hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, the timid join him, for it then costs nothing to be a patriot."- Mark TwainReason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it. -Thomas Paine

      Comment


      • #33
        Re: CDC & White House Media Briefings on Swine Flu Epidemic

        CDC Press Briefing Transcripts April 27, 2009
        Press Briefing Transcripts

        CDC Media Availability on Human Swine Influenza Cases

        April 27, 2009, 1 p.m. EST


        THANK YOU, THIS IS GLENN NOWAK.
        I′M DIRECTOR OF MEDIA RELATIONS AT THE CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION, AND WE WELCOME YOU TODAY ON THE BRIEFING FOR THE SWINE INFLUENZA. DR. BESSER IS ACTING DIRECTOR OF THE CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION. HE′S GOING TO PROVIDE AN UPDATE ON THE CASES AS WELL AS WHERE WE STAND IN TERMS OF PUBLIC HEALTH AND CDC ACTION. FOR THOSE OF YOU IN THE ROOM, WHEN WE TAKE QUESTIONS FROM THE FLOOR I WOULD ASK THAT YOU WAIT UNTIL WE GET THE MICROPHONE TO YOU. WE WILL TAKE QUESTIONS FROM THOSE PRESENT AND ALSO THE PHONE.I WILL TURN THE CONFERENCE OVER TO DR. RICHARD BESSER.

        >> THANK YOU VERY MUCH AND GOOD AFTERNOON.
        I KNOW THERE′S A LOT OF CONCERN AROUND THE COUNTRY ABOUT THIS SITUATION HERE AROUND SWINE FLU AND THE SITUATION GOING ON IN MEXICO. I HOPE THIS AFTERNOON TO SHARE WITH YOU THE CURRENT STATUS OF OUR INVESTIGATIONS AND THE WORK THAT′S GOING ON BOTH HERE AND AROUND THE WORLD TO UNDERSTAND THIS BETTER AND TO CONTROL THIS OUTBREAK OF SWINE FLU. THIS SITUATION IS EVOLVING VERY QUICKLY. IT′S CHANGING QUICKLY AND SO YOU WILL CONTINUE TO HEAR INFORMATION THAT SEEMS IN CONFLICT. YOU WILL SEE NUMBERS IN ONE PLACE THAT MAY BE DIFFERENT FROM ANOTHER. TODAY I′LL GIVE YOU THE NUMBERS AS WE HAVE THEM, BUT ASK YOU TO FOCUS A LITTLE LESS ON THE SPECIFIC NUMBERS AND MORE WHAT IT TELLS US. WHAT WE LEARN FROM THE NUMBERS IS HOW DISEASE MAY BE SPREADING AND WHERE IT′S NOT SPREADING. IT TELLS US SOMETHING ABOUT TRANSMISSION AND I′LL SHARE THAT INFORMATION WITH YOU.WE CONTINUE TO APPROACH THIS INVESTIGATION AND OUR CONTROL EFFORTS AGGRESSIVELY. THAT′S BECAUSE YOU DON′T KNOW GOING INTO AN OUTBREAK WHAT IT WILL LOOK LIKE IN THE END, AND WE WANT TO BE AGGRESSIVE. WE WANT TO TAKE BOLD ACTION TO MINIMIZE THE IMPACT ON PEOPLE′S HEALTH FROM THIS INFECTION.

        WHERE ARE WE TODAY IN TERMS OF CASES?
        WE ARE OFFICIALLY REPORTING 40 CONFIRMED CASES IN THE UNITED STATES IN FIVE STATES. THESE ARE THE SAME STATES THAT WE REPORTED YESTERDAY. NEW YORK, OHIO, KANSAS, TEXAS AND CALIFORNIA. THE ONLY CHANGE IN CONFIRMED CASES FROM YESTERDAY IS 20 ADDITIONAL CASES IN NEW YORK CITY AND THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME SCHOOL OUTBREAK THAT WE TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY AND REALLY REPRESENT ADDITIONAL TESTING IN THAT GROUP, NOT AN ONGOING SPREAD OF THAT CLUSTER. OF THE 40 CASES, WE ARE ONLY AWARE OF ONE INDIVIDUAL WHO IS HOSPITALIZED AND ALL PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN INFECTED AND WERE SICK HAVE RECOVERED. THE MEDIAN AGE IS 16 YEARS WITH A RANGE IN AGE OF 7 TO 54 YEARS AND AS I′VE BEEN TRYING TO STRESS, AS WE CONTINUE TO LOOK I EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE CASES IN OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY, AND I WILL FULLY EXPECT THAT WE′LL SEE A BROADER RANGE IN TERMS OF THE SEVERITY OF INFECTION. THANKFULLY, SO FAR WE HAVE NOT SEEN SEVERE DISEASE IN THIS COUNTRY AS HAS BEEN REPORTED IN MEXICO. SO FAR, CDC HAS CONFIRMED 26 CASES IN MEXICO, BUT, CLEARLY, FROM THE REPORTS COMING OUT OF MEXICO THIS IS A SMALL FRACTION OF WHAT THEY′RE SEEING. THESE ARE THE NUMBER OF CASES THAT WE HAVE CONFIRMED HERE IN OUR LABORATORY. I WANT TO TALK ABOUT SOME OF THE PUBLIC HEALTH ACTIONS THAT CDC HAS TAKEN AND THAT STATE AND LOCAL PUBLIC HEALTH ARE TAKING AND THAT THE GLOBAL COMMUNITY IS TAKING. WE CONTINUE TO WORK WITH STATE AND LOCAL PUBLIC HEALTH TO INVESTIGATE AND UNDERSTAND WHAT′S GOING ON. WE′RE CONTINUING TO PROVIDE SUPPORT IN THE LABORATORY TESTING THAT′S TAKING PLACE AND AS WE INVESTIGATE WE′LL CONTINUE TO LEARN MORE ABOUT HOW THIS DISEASE AND HOW THIS INFECTION IS TRANSMITTED AND HOW IT CAN BE PREVENTED AND CONTROLLED. WE′RE WORKING WITH THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION. WE′RE WORKING WITH THE PAN-AMERICAN HEALTH ORGANIZATION AND WORKING AS PART OF A TRI-NATIONAL TEAM THAT′S ON THE GROUND IN MEXICO TRYING TO INVESTIGATE AND UNDERSTAND THE DISEASE TRANSMISSION THERE. WE HAVE FOLKS ON THE GROUND AND WE WILL BE SENDING ADDITIONAL PERSONNEL TO THE GROUND TO UNDERSTAND THIS -- THIS OUTBREAK. YESTERDAY THE DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES DECLARED A PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY. THIS IS IN RECOGNITION THAT THIS IS A SERIOUS EVENT AND WE′RE TAKING IT SERIOUSLY AND ACTING AGGRESSIVELY, BUT WHAT IT ALSO DOES IS IT GIVES US ADDITIONAL AUTHORITY. IT ALLOWS US TO MOVE PRODUCTS AND DISPENSE DRUGS IN A WAY THAT WE COULDN′T BEFORE AND STREAMLINED THE PROCESS BY WHICH THE GOVERNMENT WORKS AND SO IT′S PRIMARILY A REFLECTION OF THAT. IT′S SOMETHING THAT WE DO WHENEVER WE FEEL THAT WE WANT TO HAVE THE ABILITY TO MOVE QUICKLY AND SWIFTLY. WE WILL BE DISTRIBUTING YELLOW CARDS AT PORTS OF ENTRY. THESE WILL PROVIDE INFORMATION ON SWINE FLU SO THAT PEOPLE COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES WILL HAVE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS OUTBREAK AND WHAT TO DO IF THEY BECOME SICK AND WHAT THINGS THEY CAN DO IN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THEY DO BECOME SICK. LATER TODAY WE WILL BE RELEASING A NEW TRAVEL ADVISORY FOR MEXICO. THIS IS OUT OF THE ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION AND WE WILL BE RECOMMENDING THAT NON-ESSENTIAL TRAVEL TO MEXICO BE AVOIDED. WE′LL ALSO BE INCLUDING IN THERE STEPS PEOPLE CAN TAKE SHOULD THEY NEED TO TRAVEL TO MEXICO DURING THIS TIME. AGAIN, THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION AS WE LEARN MORE. YOU CAN LOOK TO SEE OUR TRAVEL RECOMMENDATIONS REFLECT THAT. YESTERDAY WE ANNOUNCED THE RELEASE OF MATERIAL FROM OUR STRATEGIC NATIONAL STOCKPILE. THIS IS A STOCKPILE OF MEDICATIONS AND OTHER SUPPLIES THAT CAN BE VERY HELPFUL IN MANAGING AN OUTBREAK AND AGAIN, AS A FORWARD-LEANING MOVE WE RELEASED 25% OF THE STATE′S ALLOCATION OF THE STOCKPILE. THIS IS 11 MILLION COURSES OF ANTIVIRAL DRUGS. THESE ARE EN ROUTE TO AFFECTED STATES OF CALIFORNIA, NEW YORK AND TEXAS AS WELL AS OTHER STATES AROUND THE COUNTRY. YESTERDAY WE ISSUED ON OUR WEBSITE AND WE′VE SENT OUT NEW GUIDANCE, REFINED GUIDANCE ON WHAT COMMUNITIES CAN DO WHEN THEY HAVE A CASE OF SWINE FLU IN THEIR COMMUNITY. THIS PROVIDES GUIDANCE ON WHAT PEOPLE WHO HAVE THAT INFECTION SHOULD DO AND CLEARLY THAT′S STAY HOME. DON′T GO OUT IN THE COMMUNITY DURING THE PERIOD OF YOUR INFECTION WHICH IS ABOUT SEVEN DAYS, BUT YOU SHOULD STAY HOME UNTIL AT LEAST ONE DAY PAST YOUR SYMPTOM PERIOD. IF YOU DO GO OUT, IT PROVIDES GUIDANCE INTO HOW YOU CAN INTERACT SAFELY IN THE COMMUNITY. IT PROVIDES RECOMMENDATIONS IN TERMS OF CONTACT, AVOIDING CROWDED PLACES AND TRYING TO STAY HOME AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. IT TALKS ABOUT THE CLOSURE OF A SCHOOL OR DISMISSAL OF STUDENTS AT A TIME WHEN THERE′S AN IDENTIFIED CASE IN THE SCHOOL. AGAIN, THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF WHERE THERE′S BEEN ADDITIONAL TRANSMISSION AND IT TALKS ABOUT OTHER GATHERINGS. WE KNOW THAT IN SOME COMMUNITIES WHERE THERE′S BEEN A CASE, THEY′VE CANCELED SCHOOL FUNCTIONS RELATED TO THAT AFFECTED SCHOOL. WE THINK THAT MAKES SENSE. ALL OF THESE GUIDELINES NEED TO BE TAILORED BASED ON THE LOCAL SITUATION AND WE EXPECT TO SEE AND IT′S APPROPRIATE TO SEE DIFFERENT APPLICATION OF THESE GUIDANCES IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.

        I -- I ALWAYS LIKE TO MAKE THE POINT THAT CONTROL OF AN OUTBREAK OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE IS A SHARED RESPONSIBILITY AND THERE ARE THINGS THAT INDIVIDUALS NEED TO DO AND THERE ARE THINGS THAT COMMUNITIES NEED TO DO AND THERE ARE THINGS THAT THE GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO DO AND IT′S IMPORTANT THAT INDIVIDUALS REALIZE THEY HAVE A KEY ROLE TO PLAY IN REDUCING THEIR OWN LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING INFECTED. THOSE ARE THE TYPICAL GUIDELINES FOR RESPIRATORY INFECTION. FREQUENT HAND WASHING IF YOU DON′T HAVE ACCESS TO SOAP AND WATER AND ALCOHOL GEL AND COVERING YOUR COUGH OR YOUR SNEEZE, THAT′S VERY IMPORTANT. IF YOU′RE SICK, AND IF YOU HAVE A FEVER AND YOU′RE SICK OR YOUR CHILDREN ARE SICK, DON′T GO TO WORK AND DON′T GO TO SCHOOL. THAT CAN HELP REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD THAT YOU WILL SHARE THAT INFECTION, BUT IT′S ALSO TIME FOR PEOPLE TO BE THINKING ABOUT, WHAT WOULD I DO IF MY CHILD′S SCHOOL WERE CLOSED? WHAT WOULD I DO FOR CHILD CARE? WOULD I BE ABLE TO WORK FROM HOME? IT′S TIME TO THINK ABOUT THAT SO THAT YOU′RE READY IN THE EVENT THAT THERE WERE A CASE IN YOUR CHILD′S SCHOOL. IT′S TIME FOR BUSINESSES TO REVIEW THEIR PLANS AND THINK ABOUT WHAT WOULD I DO IF SOME OF MY WORKERS COULDN′T COME TO WORK? HOW WOULD MY BUSINESS FUNCTION? THINK ABOUT THAT. THERE′S BEEN TREMENDOUS PLANNING THAT′S BEEN GOING ON AROUND THE COUNTRY OVER THE PAST NUMBER OF YEARS. IT′S TIME FOR PEOPLE TO REVIEW THOSE PLANS AND THINK ABOUT WHAT THEY WOULD DO.IT′S TIME FOR SCHOOLS AND FAITH-BASED ORGANIZATIONS TO THINK ABOUT AS WELL, WHAT WOULD I DO IF THERE WERE AN ONGOING OUTBREAK IN MY COMMUNITY. HOPEFULLY THIS OUTBREAK WOULD NOT PROGRESS, BUT LEANING FORWARD AND THINKING ABOUT WHAT YOU WOULD DO IS ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT THINGS INDIVIDUALS AND COMMUNITIES CAN UNDERTAKE RIGHT NOW. IT MATTERS LESS WHAT WE CALL THIS THAN WHAT ACTIONS WE TAKE, AND WE ARE ACTING AGGRESSIVELY BASED ON WHAT WE KNOW TODAY AND WHETHER THE TERM CHANGES, THAT′S NOT GOING TO CHANGE OUR APPROACH TO THAT SITUATION AND THAT′S A VERY IMPORTANT POINT. WE TRIGGER OUR ACTIONS BASED ON WHAT′S GOING ON IN THE COMMUNITY AND NOT BASED ON WHAT LABEL IS PUT ON A PARTICULAR OUTBREAK. THERE′S NO SINGLE ACTION THAT WILL CONTROL AN OUTBREAK, BUT THE COMBINED ACTIONS THAT WE ARE PROPOSING AND THEY′RE BEING UNDERTAKEN AROUND THE COUNTRY WILL HELP TO STEM THE TIDE OF ANY INFECTIOUS DISEASE OUTBREAK AND THIS ONE IN PARTICULAR. I WANT TO REITERATE THAT EVERYONE HAS A RESPONSIBILITY AND IT′S BEEN ABSOLUTELY INCREDIBLE TO SEE PEOPLE AROUND THE COUNTRY STANDING UP AND TAKING RESPONSIBILITY AND DOING THE THINGS THAT THEY NEED TO DO TO HELP REDUCE THE IMPACT OF THIS OUTBREAK.

        I WANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT MUCH IS UNKNOWN.
        WE WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE YOUR INFORMATION AS WE KNOW IT AND PROVIDE AS MANY OPPORTUNITIES AS POSSIBLE FOR YOUR QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED. AND LASTLY, I REALLY WANT TO RECOGNIZE THE INCREDIBLE WORK BEING DONE BY THE MEDICAL PROVIDER COMMUNITY AND THE PUBLIC HEALTH COMMUNITY. THESE PERIODS OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE WE′RE WORKING WITH VERY LIMITED KNOWLEDGE, AND VERY LIMITED INFORMATION ARE VERY DIFFICULT AND PEOPLE ARE DOING AN OUTSTANDING JOB ACROSS THE COUNTRY, TRYING TO UNDERSTAND THIS. SO, THANK YOU AND I′D BE HAPPY TO TAKE YOUR QUESTIONS.

        >> THANK YOU.

        >> WE′LL GO AROUND THE ROOM AND THEN WE′LL GO TO THE PHONES.

        >> DR. BESSER, FOX NEWS. IS THE CDC WORKING ON A VACCINE SPECIFICALLY FOR THIS NEW SUBTYPE OF SWINE FLU OR ARE EXISTING VACCINES EFFECTIVE SO FAR?

        WE DON′T THINK THAT ANY OF THE EXISTING VACCINES ARE EFFECTIVE AND WHENEVER WE SEE A NEW STRAIN OF INFLUENZA WE LOOK TO CREATE WHAT′S CALLED THE FEED STOCK AND THAT′S THE STOCK OF THE VIRUS THAT WOULD BE USED IN THE EVENT WE DECIDE TO MAKE A VACCINE. THERE ARE DISCUSSIONS ONGOING ABOUT WHETHER TO MAKE A VACCINE AND WHETHER THAT SHOULD BE UNDERTAKEN. IT′S NOT AN EASY DECISION. IT WOULD INVOLVE LOOKING AT WHAT VACCINE IS NEEDED FOR NEXT YEAR′S FLU SEASON. WHETHER THIS IS A STRAIN THAT WE WANT TO LOOK TO INCLUDE AND THERE ARE TRADEOFFS THERE, BUT THOSE DISCUSSIONS ARE UNDER WAY SO THAT IF WE DECIDE TO MANUFACTURE A VACCINE WE′D BE READY TO START THAT PROCESS.

        >> WSB TELEVISION IN ATLANTA. SO FAR THE ILLNESS IS MORE SEVERE IN MEXICO AND LESS SEVERE AMONGTHE CASES HERE.IS THAT OPTIMISTIC TO YOU?DO YOU THINK THAT -- THAT PATTERN OR IS IT TOO EARLY TO TELL?

        >> THAT IS A CRITICAL QUESTION, WHAT WE NEED TO KNOW IS WHY WE′RE SEEING A DIFFERENT DISEASE SPECTRUM IN MEXICO THAN WE′RE SEEING HERE. I WOULDN′T BE OVERLY REASSURED BY THAT.THERE ARE MANY REASONS THAT COULD EXPLAIN THAT AND AS WE GATHER INFORMATION, WE HOPE TO SORT THAT OUT, BUT I WOULDN′T -- I WOULDN′T REST ON THE FACT THAT WE HAVE ONLY SEEN CASES IN THIS COUNTRY THAT ARE LESS SEVERE.AS WE CONTINUE TO LOOK I EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE ADDITIONAL CASES AND I EXPECT THAT THE SPECTRUM OF DISEASE WILL EXPAND.

        >> I WAS TOLD THAT SOME GOVERNMENT AGENCIES IN NEIGHBORING STATE, ALABAMA, THAT WORKERS ARE BEING ORDERED TO WEAR MASKS AT WORK.IN A WORKPLACE WHERE THERE HAS BEEN NO ACTIVE SIGN OF DISEASE ISTHAT RECOMMENDED AT THIS POINT?

        >> I′M NOT AWARE OF ANY STATES UNDERTAKING THAT.IN TERMS OF OUR RECOMMENDATIONS WE WOULD NOT RECOMMEND THAT PEOPLE GENERALLY WEAR MASKS IN THEIR WORKPLACE AS A PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE. AS A DOCTOR AND AS A PARENT THE ISSUE OF MASKS COME UP AND PEOPLE SAY WOW? SHOULD I WEAR MASKS?IS THAT GOING TO PROTECT ME. ANYTHING THAT YOU CAN DO TO PREVENT INFECTION ARE CRITICALLY IMPORTANT. MASKS, THE EVIDENCE OF THEIR VALUE OUTSIDE OF HEALTHCARE SETTINGS AND OUTSIDE OF SETTINGS WHERE YOU ARE COMING DIRECT FACE-TO-FACE WITH SOMEONE WHO HAS AN INFECTIOUS DISEASE, THE EVIDENCE THERE IS NOT VERY STRONG. I KNOW SOME PEOPLE FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE HAVING A MASK AND THERE ARE CERTAIN CIRCUMSTANCES WHERE THAT MAY BE OF VALUE, BUT I WOULD RATHER PEOPLE REALLY FOCUS HAND WASHING, NOT GIVING THAT LITTLE KISS OF GREETING WHEN YOU′RE MEETING SOMEBODY RIGHT NOW. DOING THOSE SORTS OF THINGS AND COVERING YOUR COUGH AND YOUR SNEEZE AND THEN IF YOU FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE WITH A MASK, IF YOU′RE IN A COMMUNITY OR SETTING WHERE THERE′S ONGOING DISEASE TRANSMISSION AND THEN YOU CAN THINK ABOUT THAT, BUT THE OTHER THINGS WHERE THERE IS THAT EVIDENCE ARE THE THINGS WE′RE REALLY TRYING TO PUSH.

        ON THE PHONE?

        OKAY.

        >> DANIEL STEINBERG WITH CBS NEWS.WHERE IS THE CDC AND OTHER HEALTH ORGANIZATIONS WHERE ARE THEY IN TRACKING THE ORIGIN, PERHAPS PIG FARMS AND OTHER CASES?

        >> WE ARE UNDERTAKING WORK WITH THE USDA ON THAT FACT AND THE ISSUE OF WHERE DID THIS COME FROM?IT REMINDS ME OF AN IMPORTANT POINT.SOME PEOPLE WORRY ABOUT PORK PRODUCTS BECAUSE WE CALL THIS THE SWINE FLU.YOU CAN′T GET THIS FROM EATING PORK.COOK YOUR PORK APPROPRIATELY SO THAT YOU DON′T GET OTHER INFECTIOUS DISEASES, BUT INFLUENZA IS NOT TRANSMITTED BY EATING PORK OR PORK PRODUCTS.THEY ARE SAFE.WHAT WE DO AS WE INVESTIGATE THE CASES WE LOOK FOR ANY CONNECTIONS AND SEE IF ANY OF THE INDIVIDUALS WHO HAVE BEEN SICK HAVE BEEN EXPOSED TO PIGS OR SWINE AND WE′RE NOT FINDING THAT LINKAGE HERE.I KNOW THAT IN THE INVESTIGATIONS IN MEXICO THEY′LL BE LOOKING ASWELL TO SEE IS THERE ANY CONNECTION?CAN WE UNDERSTAND HOW THIS MAY HAVE FIRST STARTED?

        I WILL TAKE I QUESTION FROM THE PHONE.

        >> AGAIN ON THE PHONE LINES IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO ASK A QUESTION, PLEASE PRESS STAR ONE.

        OUR FIRST QUESTION COMES FROM BETSY McKAY, WALL STREET JOURNAL.

        >> HI, DR. BESSER.THANK YOU.I HAVE A COUPLE OF QUESTIONS.AS YOU PROBABLY KNOW, W.H.O. HAS A PANEL MEETING RIGHT NOW WHETHER TO RAISE THE PANDEMIC LEVEL ALERT.SO I′M WONDERING IF THAT DOES HAPPEN AND IF IT′S RAISED TO LEVEL FOUR OR FIVE, WHAT SPECIFIC ACTIONS WOULD THAT TRIGGER HERE IN THE UNITED STATES? THE SECOND QUESTION I WANTED TO ASK WAS YOU′VE TALKED ABOUT HOW MUCH BETTER PREPARED WE ARE SINCE SARS AND DEFINITELY A LOT OF MONEY HAS GONE INTO PREPAREDNESS, BUT YOU FACE A COUPLE OF LIMITING FACTORS RIGHT NOW. ONE IS THAT THE AGE HASN′T BEEN CONFIRMED AND SECONDLY, STATE AND LOCAL HEALTH DEPARTMENTS ARE FACING A REAL FUNDING CRUNCH IN THE RECESSION AND I′M WONDERING IF YOU CAN ADDRESS THOSE TWO.WHAT DO YOU NEED TO MORE EFFECTIVELY DO YOUR JOB AND ARE THOSE LIMITING YOU?

        >> YOUR FIRST QUESTION ABOUT W.H.O., THE EXPERT COMMITTEE IS MEETING TODAY TO LOOK AT THE CURRENT SITUATION AND SEE WHETHER ANY CHANGES NEED TO BE MADE IN TERMS OF PHASES.THAT GOES ON A COMMENT I MADE EARLIER ABOUT IT, IT DOESN′T REALLY MATTER FROM OUR PERSPECTIVE WHAT YOU CALL THIS.OUR ACTIONS ARE BASED ON WHAT′S TAKING PLACE IN OUR COUNTRY AND IN OUR COMMUNITIES.IT MAY HAVE MORE RELEVANCE TO A COUNTRY THAT HAS YET TO SEE CASES IN TERMS OF WHAT THEY WOULD START TO DO.HERE, WE ARE ACTING AGGRESSIVELY AND WHETHER THEY GO FROM PHASE THREE TO A PHASE 4 WOULD NOT CHANGE ANYTHING THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY DOING.IN TERMS OF PUBLIC HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE WHETHER YOU′RE LOOKING AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL OR STATE OR LOCAL LEVEL, IT′S CRITICAL TO OUR SUCCESS IN RECOGNIZING OUTBREAKS AND BEING ABLE TO RESPOND TO OUTBREAKS.THE LACK OF A SECRETARY OF HEALTH HAS WANT IN ANY WAY LED TO DIMINISHED ACTIVITY IN OUR DEPARTMENT APPROACHING THIS PROBLEM. WE HAVE AN OUTSTANDING DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES THAT IS AGGRESSIVELY ADDRESSING THIS ISSUE.WE LOOK FORWARD TO HAVING LEADERSHIP IN POSITIONS, BUT THAT HASN′T IMPACTED OUR ABILITY TO RESPOND.

        >> YOU ASKED A QUESTION ABOUT STATE AND LOCAL PUBLIC HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE AND I HAVE TO BE HONEST ON THAT THE ECONOMIC REALITIES THAT BEEN VERY HARD ON STATE AND LOCAL PUBLIC HEALTH. WE AS A NATION RELY ON PUBLIC HEALTH PERSONNEL AT THE STATE AND LOCAL LEVELS TO IDENTIFY THESE OUTBREAKS AND IDENTIFY THEM QUICKLY AND BE ABLE TO RESPOND AND WE HAVE AN OUTSTANDING PUBLIC HEALTH SYSTEM, BUT IT IS IN A TOUGH SITUATION.WE HEAR ABOUT TENS OF THOUSANDS OF STATE PUBLIC HEALTH WORKERS WHO ARE GOING TO BE LOSING THEIR JOBS BECAUSE OF STATE BUDGETS AND IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT WE LOOK AT THAT AND WE LOOK AT THAT RESOURCE BECAUSE THIS OUTBREAK WAS IDENTIFIED BECAUSE OF A LOT OF THE WORK GOING ON AROUND PREPAREDNESS.MEXICO, YES, HAD BEEN HAVING AN OUTBREAK OF FLU, BUT THE FIRST CASE OF SWINE FLU WAS IDENTIFIED IN SAN DIEGO AS PART OF A STUDY THAT WAS PART OF PREPAREDNESS, TO TRY AND DEVELOP NEW TEST KITS THAT DOCTORS CAN USE IN THEIR OFFICE.THAT KIND OF INVESTMENT IN PREPAREDNESS IS WHAT LED TO THIS. AS WE′RE LOOKING NOW AT HOW ARE WE -- HOW ARE WE SUPPORTING STATES, ONE OF THE THINGS WE′RE DOING IS WE′RE HELPING STATES SUPPORT THEMES AND SO WE′RE SENDING TEST KITS TO STATES SO THAT STATES WILL BE ABLE TO DO THEIR OWN TESTING TO DETERMINE DO THEY HAVE THIS ISOLATED FLU? WE′RE NOT SENDING IT TO ALL STATES AT FIRST.WE′RE ROLLING THIS OUT, BUT THAT INFRASTRUCTURE, THAT ABILITY AND THE LABORATORY NETWORK THAT′S BEEN BUILT OVER THE PAST DECADE IS ONE OF THE BACKBONES THAT WE COUNT ON TO BE ABLE TO IDENTIFY AND CONTROL OUTBREAKS.

        ANOTHER QUESTION FROM THE PHONE?

        >> THANK YOU.
        OUR NEXT QUESTION DOLLARS JOANNE SOUTH EARNER, NATIONAL PUBLIC RADIO.

        PLEASE GO AHEAD.

        >> HI AND THANKS.HAS ANYONE HAD A CHANCE TO LOOK BACK, YOU MENTIONED SAN DIEGO, HAS ANYONE LOOKED FURTHER BACK TO FIGURE OUT WHETHER THE SARS WAS AROUND WEEKS AND MONTHS AGO IN THIS COUNTRY?

        >> THAT′S A GOOD QUESTION AND WE HAD NOT SEEN THIS VIRUS IN THIS COUNTRY.IN ADDITION, WE′VE BEEN ASSISTING THE MEXICAN GOVERNMENT IN LOOKING AT THE STRAINS OF FLU THAT THEY′VE SEEN THROUGH THEIR SEASON AND IN LOOKING AT THE ANALYSIS FROM THAT, THIS WAS NOT SOMETHING THAT THEY WERE SEEING CIRCULATING THERE.WE KNOW AT LEAST UNTIL MARCH AND THE ANALYSES OF THE LATER STRAINS I DON′T THINK HAS BEEN COMPLETED, BUT WE ARE TRYING TO UNDERSTAND WHERE IT FIRST AROSE AND WHERE IT MAY HAVE FIRST AROSE AND WHAT THAT MAY TELL US ABOUT WHERE IT CAME FROM AND HOW IT CAN BE CONTROLLED.

        >> THANK YOU.

        OUR NEXT QUESTION COMES FROM HELEN GRANWELL, THE CANADIAN PRESS.

        >> HI, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR TAKING MY QUESTION. DR. BESSER, YESTERDAY YOU SAID SO FAR IN THE UNITED STATES, I THINK YOU SAID, ANYWAY, THERE′S ONLY BEEN ONE CASE WHERE KNOWN HUMAN-TO HUMAN TRANSMISSION OCCURRED.I′M WONDER WHETHER YOU TELL US WHETHER THAT′S STILL THE CASE OR IF YOU′RE SEEING GENERATIONS OF SPREAD AND I WOULD HAVE A FOLLOW-UP IF I COULD, PLEASE.

        >> WE ONLY HAVE ONE CASE OF DOCUMENTED BY VIRAL TESTING PERSON TO-PERSON SPREAD, BUT I WOULDN′T BE REASSURED BY THAT.WE′RE SEEING SIGNIFICANT RATES OF RESPIRATORY INFECTION AMONG CONTACTS, AND I WOULD EXPECT THAT SOME OF THOSE INDIVIDUALS WILLEND UP TESTING POSITIVE FOR THE SWINE FLU VIRUS.SO, YEAH.THANKS FOR THAT QUESTION.I DON′T WANT THAT TO BE TOO REASSURING.THIS VIRUS IS ACTING LIKE A FLU VIRUS AND FLU VIRUS IS SPREAD FROM PERSON TO PERSON.

        >> GREAT.

        THE OTHER QUESTION I WANTED TO ASK YOU ABOUT HOW YOU STRIKE A BALANCE TO HAVE A MEASURED RESPONSE BECAUSE OBVIOUSLY THERE′S BEEN TONS OF PLANNING DONE IN THE PAST FEW YEARS IN RESPONSE TO THE THREAT OF H1, BUT THOSE RESOURCES ARE EXPENSIVE TO PUT TOGETHER AND THEY ARE PRECIOUS AND I WOULD IMAGINE THAT YOU MIGHT NOT WANT TO BLOW THROUGH A WHOLE BUNCH OF THE STOCKPILED ANTIVIRALS, FOR INSTANCE, AT THIS POINT BECAUSE WHO KNOWS HOW THIS VIRUS IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO BEHAVE IN THE FUTURE OR HOW H5 WILL CONTINUE TO BEHAVE IN THE FUTURE.HOW DO YOU STRIKE THE BALANCE?

        >> THAT′S A GREAT QUESTION.EVERY OUTBREAK IS UNIQUE.EVERY NEW STRAIN OF VIRUS IS UNIQUE AND UNTIL THE OUTBREAK HAS PROGRESSED YOU DON′T KNOW WHAT IT′S GOING TO DO AND SO IT′S A MATTER OF MAKING DECISIONS WITH INCOMPLETE INFORMATION AND SO IF YOU LOOK AT SOME OF THE DECISIONS WE′VE MADE, THE DECISION ABOUT PROVIDING ANTIVIRALS AND MATERIAL TO PEOPLE AROUND THE COUNTRY, WE ARE SENDING FOR 25%.WE′RE NOT SENDING FOR THE ENTIRE STOCKPILE AND WE′RE SENDING OUT SUPPLIES SO THAT IN THE EVENT THIS WERE TO BECOME SOMETHING MORE SERIOUS, THE HEALTH DEPARTMENT AND DOCTORS WOULD HAVE WHAT THEY NEEDED TO TAKE CARE OF PEOPLE.AS INFORMATION CHANGES, OUR LEVEL OF RESPONSE CAN CHANGE. IF WE WERE TO START TO SEE A MUCH MORE SEVERE COURSE OF ILLNESS IN THE COUNTRY, WE MIGHT RECOMMEND DIFFERENT CONTROL MEASURES AND COMMUNITIES THAN WE′RE CURRENTLY DOING.RIGHT NOW WE′RE AT THE RIGHT LEVEL IN TERMS OF WHAT WE′RE RECOMMENDING FOR RESPONSE BASED ON WHAT WE KNOW.

        A QUESTION HERE IN THE AUDIENCE.

        >> WHAT ARE THE SIGNS THAT SWINE FLU IS IN METRO ATLANTA.

        >> I THINK AS WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR CASES OF SWINE FLU WE′LL FIND THEM.THE RECOMMENDATIONS WE HAVE IN TERMS OF INDIVIDUALS, KNOWING WHAT THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS ARE.IF YOU HAVE FEVER AND FLU-LIKE ILLNESS YOU SHOULD TALK TO YOUR DOCTOR. YOUR DOCTOR CAN TALK TO YOU ABOUT WHETHER TESTING IS -- OR TREATMENT IS APPROPRIATE.IN PARTICULAR, IF YOU HAVE -- IF YOU TRAVELED TO MEXICO AND YOU HAVE THOSE SYMPTOMS WE SHOULD SEE YOUR DOCTOR BECAUSE THAT′S AN AREA WHERE WE KNOW TRANSMISSION IS OCCURRING.I DON′T KNOW THE ODDS OF SOMEBODY IN ATLANTA HAS THIS INFECTION, BUT IT′S IMPORTANT THAT PEOPLE IN ATLANTA AND PEOPLE IN DALLAS AND PEOPLE IN PHILADELPHIA AND PEOPLE IN SMALL TOWNS KNOW ABOUT THIS, THAT THEY PAY ATTENTION AND THAT THEY UNDERSTAND THAT THEY HAVE A RESPONSIBILITY HERE IN TERMS OF PROTECTING THEMSELVES AND ALSO KNOWING WHAT THE SIGNS ARE AND WHAT THEY SHOULD DO IF THEY′RE ILL.

        ANOTHER QUESTION IN THE ROOM?

        >> MATT GUPMAN, ABC NEWS.YOU MENTIONED THE LAST 20 WERE ALL FROM THE SAME SCHOOL IN NEW YORK. WHAT DOES THAT TELL US ABOUT THE SPREAD OF THE VIRUS?IS THAT SPREADING?

        >> IT REALLY DOESN′T TELL US VERY MUCH.THE ADDITIONAL CASES FROM NEW YORK REPRESENT ADDITIONAL TESTING, NOT ONGOING TRANSMISSION AND SO IT DOESN′T TELL US VERY MUCH. WE′RE CONTINUING TO LOOK AROUND THE COUNTRY.HEALTH OFFICIALS AROUND THE COUNTRY ARE LOOKING AND DOING TESTING. SO, YOU KNOW, THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE HAVEN′T IDENTIFIED IT IN ADDITIONAL STATES, BUT I WOULDN′T PUT TOO MUCH ON THAT.OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO, WE′LL KNOW A LOT MORE ABOUT DISEASE TRANSMISSION AND HOW THIS WILL GO.

        >> WE′LL TAKE A QUESTION FROM THE PHONE.

        >> OUR NEXT QUESTION COMES FROM ELIZABETH WEISS, USA TODAY.

        >> HI, THANKS FOR TAKING MY CALL.ON THE FLU CALL EARLIER TODAY THEY SAID THAT THE CDC HAS ALREADY BEEN ABLE TO CULTURE THE WILD TYPE VIRUS AND YOU GUYS WERE ALREADY INCUBATING IT IN EGGS WHICH IS THE FIRST STEP TOWARD THE CREATION OF A VACCINE.I JUST WANTED TO CONFIRM THAT IS THE CASE.

        >> I THINK THAT′S WHAT I WAS DESCRIBING BEFORE IN TERMS OF GROWING A SEED STOCK FOR MANUFACTURING.THAT′S A MORE TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION OF WHAT I LAID OUT.

        >> THANK YOU.

        OUR NEXT QUESTION COMES FROM MIKE STOBY, ASSOCIATED PRESS.

        >> HI.THANK YOU FOR TAKING THE CALL.TWO QUESTIONS, ACTUALLY.THE FIRST ONE HAS TO DO WITH SYMPTOMS.DOCTOR, INITIALLY THE CDC DESCRIBED RESPIRATORY ILLNESSES IN CONFIRMED U.S. CASES, BUT IN THESE NEW YORK ONES IT SOUNDS LIKE IT′S MORE OF A STOMACH PROBLEM, GASTROINTESTINAL.ARE THERE DIFFERENT SETS OF SYMPTOMS OR IS EVERYONE EXPERIENCINGRESPIRATORY AND I HAVE A FOLLOW-UP QUESTION.

        >> THAT′S A GOOD QUESTION.THE PRIMARY SYMPTOMS THAT WE HEAR ABOUT OF FEVER, COUGH, RESPIRATORY SYMPTOMS ARE STILL ONES PEOPLE NEED TO LOOK FOR. WE DO KNOW THAT THERE ARE INDIVIDUALS WHO HAVE HAD GASTROINTESTINAL SYMPTOMS OF DIARRHEA AND VOMITINGAND SO IF YOU HAVE THOSE SYMPTOMS IT DOESN′T RULE OUT THE FACT THAT THIS COULD BE SWINE FLU.SOME OF THE CASES HAVE REPORTED THAT, AND I CAN -- WE CAN GET BACK AT A FUTURE BRIEF IN TERMS OF WHAT PROPORTION OF THE CASES. THE MORE THE CASES ARE INVESTIGATING THE BETTER SENSE YOU′LL HAVE OF THE FULL SPECTRUM OF DISEASE HERE IN THE UNITED STATES AS WELL AS WHAT WE′RE HEARING FROM MEXICO.

        >> MY SECOND QUESTION HAD TO DO WITH INFECTIOUSNESS.DO WE HAVE ANY INFORMATION YET ON WHETHER THESE ARE LARGE DROPLETS THAT ONLY SPREAD ABOUT FIVE FEET OUT OR SMALL DROPLETS THAT FILL A ROOM FROM TEN FEET OUT IN THE SUPER SPREAD TYPE SITUATION?

        >> IT′S TOO EARLY TO BE ABLE TO ADDRESS THAT QUESTION?

        >> THANK YOU.

        >> OUR NEXT QUESTION?

        >> KEN MILES WITH THE ATLANTA JOURNAL CONSTITUTION.

        ARE STATE AND LOCAL HEALTH AGENCY REQUESTING GUIDANCE IN DEALING WITH THIS AND WHAT ARE THEY BEING TOLD?

        >> WE ARE WORKING VERY CLOSELY WITH STATE AND LOCAL PUBLIC HEALTH. IN SOME OF THE STATES WE HAVE TEAMS ON THE GROUND ASSISTING INCALIFORNIA AND TEXAS.WE HAVE A LOT OF GUIDANCE POSTED ON OUR WEBSITE IN TERMS OF WHAT PEOPLE SHOULD LOOK FOR, IN TERMS OF SIGNS AND SYMPTOM, WHAT DOCTORS SHOULD LOOK FOR AND HOW TESTING SHOULD BE DONE.WE HAVE INFORMATION ON INFECTION CONTROL PRACTICES THAT SHOULD BE APPLIED IN HEALTH CARE SETTINGS AND WE RECENTLY YESTERDAY POSTED THE GUIDANCE ON WHAT COMMUNITIES SHOULD DO IF THERE′S A CASE IN YOUR COMMUNITY.WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST GUIDANCE AND EXPAND ON THAT AS THIS GOES FORWARD.

        A QUESTION FROM THE PHONE.

        >> THANK YOU, OUR NEXT QUESTION COMES FROM ROB STEIN, WASHINGTON POST.

        >> HI, THANKS VERY MUCH FOR DOING THIS.

        >> I HAD A COUPLE OF QUESTIONS.ONE WAS OVER THE TOTAL 40 CASES, WHAT IS THE TOTAL NUMBER OF HOSPITALIZATIONS SO FAR AND DO YOU HAVE -- NEW YORK IS REPORTING 17 PROBABLE CASES.DO YOU HAVE A TOTAL, A TALLY OF PROBABLE CASES THAT ARE PENDING IN THE UNITED STATES AND THE LAST QUESTION WAS I WAS JUST WONDERING WHAT YOU THOUGHT ABOUT THE COMMENTS FROM THE EU HEALTH MINISTER TODAY ABOUT NOT TRAVELING TO THE UNITED STATES.

        >> IN THE UNITED STATES OF THE 40 CASES THAT ARE CONFIRMEDTHERE′S BEEN ONE HOSPITALIZATION.IN NEW YORK CITY, I DON′T HAVE A NUMBER OF PROBABLE CASES, BUT PROBABLE CASE NEY GENERAL, WE HAVE A DEFINITION ON THE WEBSITE SO THAT WOULD BE SOMEONE THAT HAD COMPATIBLE SYMPTOMS WITH AN EPIDEMIOLOGIC LENGTH FOR WHICH THERE′S BEEN TESTING DONE AND IT′S NOT CONFIRMED.IN TERMS OF REPORTED COMMENTS FROM THE EU ABOUT TRAVEL TO THE UNITED STATES, BASED ON THE SITUATION IN THE UNITED STATES RIGHT NOW I THINK IT IS QUITE PREMATURE TO PUT TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS ON PEOPLE COMING TO THE UNITED STATES.WE HAVE 20 CASES OF SWINE FLU.WE′RE DOING ACTIVE SURVEILLANCE.SO FAR WE′VE SEEN ONE HOSPITALIZATION.AS THE SITUATION CHANGES, THEN THAT NEEDS TO BE EVALUATED BY INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES AND DIFFERENT COUNTRIES WILL TAKE A DIFFERENT APPROACH AND HAVE A DIFFERENT LEVEL OF CONCERN, BUT FROM WHAT WE KNOW TODAY I THINK IT′S PREMATURE ON PUTTING A TRAVEL RESTRICTION ON PEOPLE COMING TO THE UNITED STATES.

        >> THANK YOU.

        OUR NEXT QUESTION COMES FROM MAGGIE FOX, REUTERS.

        >> THE CDC IS GETTING EITHER BETTER OR WORSE?

        >> AS WE LOOK AROUND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MORE CASES AND IT′S REALLY OVER TIME WE′LL BE ABLE TO SEE MORE ABOUT THAT.IN TERMS OF GETTING BETTER, WE WOULD LOVE TO SEE IN MEXICO THAT THE NUMBER OF CASES IS GOING DOWN AND THAT PEOPLE ARE RECOVERING, AND THAT WOULD BE A WONDERFUL THING TO SEE.IF WE SEE NUMBERS OF CASES GOING UP, THAT′S NOT SOMETHING WE′D LIKE TO SEE.IT′S HARD TO KNOW WHAT THE COURSE OF AN OUTBREAK IS GOING TO LOOK LIKE UNTIL YOU′RE MUCH FURTHER INTO IT.ANOTHER THING THAT′S IMPORTANT TO NOTE IS THAT WE′RE NEARING THE END OF FLU SEASON AND OFTEN IN OUTBREAKS OF INFLUENZA YOU′LL SEE A DECLINE IN THE NUMBER OF CASES BECAUSE IT′S THE END OF FLU SEASON AND WE CAN′T REST TOO COMFORTABLY ON THAT BECAUSE SOMETIMES IT COMES BACK AGAIN IN THE FALL WHEN FLU SEASON COMES BACK. SO WE′LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY TO SEE THE NUMBER OF CASES AND THE SEVERITY OF CASES AND AGE GROUP OF CASES AND THAT SORT OF THING.

        TWO MORE QUESTIONS FROM THE PHONE.

        >> THANK YOU.

        OUR NEXT QUESTION COMES FROM MAGGIE FOX, REUTERS. PLEASE GO AHEAD.

        >> WANTED TO ASK WHAT STRESS CONTINUES TO BE ON PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY.I KNOW UNDER PRESIDENT BUSH THAT WAS THE FOCUS. WILL CDC CONTINUE TO RECOMMEND THAT FOCUS NOW?

        >> I THINK THAT THERE′S RESPONSIBILITY AT MANY LEVELS, BUT IT IS SO IMPORTANT TO START AT THE LEVEL OF INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR HEALTH.WHETHER YOU′RE TALKING ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF EATING RIGHT AND EXERCISING FOR PREVENTION OF CHRONIC DISEASE OR WASHING YOUR HANDS, COVERING A ROUGH AND NOT GOING AROUND OTHER PEOPLE WHEN YOU′RE SICK FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASE, IT STARTS WITH PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY, BUT IT DOESN′T END THERE.THERE ARE SO MANY THINGS THAT TAKE PLACE AT THE COMMUNITY LEVEL AND AT THE GOVERNMENTAL LEVEL THAT ARE SO IMPORTANT IN TERMS OF CONTROLLING AN OUTBREAK OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE.

        >> THANK YOU.

        OUR NEXT QUESTION COMES FROM ELIZABETH LANDAU, CNN.

        >> HI, THANKS FOR TAKING MY QUESTION.FIRST OF ALL, AT THE BEGINNING YOU SAID YOU SHOULDN′T EVEN, LIKE, GIVE A LITTLE KISS OF GREETING.IS THAT ONLY IN AFFECTED AREAS AND IS THAT FOR EVERYONE AND SECONDLY, THERE′S BEEN A WATER SHORTAGE IN MEXICO CITY. COULD THAT POSSIBLY HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH IT?

        >> WOULD YOU MIND REPEATING THE FIRST QUESTION? I MISSED THAT.

        >> OH, SORRY.WHEN YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT PRECAUTIONS SUCH AS, YOU KNOW, COVERING YOUR COUGH AND WANT --YOU KNOW, DON′T EVEN GIVE PEOPLE -- YOU KNOW, A KISS OF GREETING. IS THAT ONLY AFFECTED AREAS OR FOR EVERYONE.

        >> I THINK COVERING YOUR COUGH IS SOMETHING YOU SHOULD ALWAYS DO. IT′S VERY -- IT′S AN APPROPRIATE WAY TO REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF TRANSMISSION OF AN INFECTIOUS DISEASE.IN TERMS OF HOW YOU GREET SOMEBODY, IF YOU′RE IN AN INFECTED AREA OR IF YOU HAVE THE SWINE FLU IT′S PROBABLY BEST NOT TO -- TO NOT GIVE A KISS, BUT WE′RE NOT RECOMMENDING AN END OF AFFECTION DURING THE PERIOD.IT′S A PERIOD OF TIME WHEN WE NEED A LITTLE MORE AFFECTION, BUT DOING IT IN A WAY THAT ISN′T GOING TO TRANSMIT A RESPIRATORY DISEASE WOULD BE A CDC APPROACH.

        >> ONE LAST QUESTION FROM THE ROOM.

        >> YOU TALKED A LITTLE BIT ON FRIDAY ABOUT, YOU KNOW, IF IT WAS STRIKING HEALTHIER, YOUNGER PEOPLE AND NOT SOMETHING THAT WE SEE WITH SEASONAL FLU.HAVE YOUR PEOPLE LEARNED ANYTHING ON THE GROUND ABOUT WHAT′S HAPPENING FROM AND WHY IT SEEMS TO BE HITTING HARD, YOUNGER PEOPLE?

        >> WE′RE JUST STARTING TO GET SOME INFORMATION THERE AND SO IT′S A LITTLE EARLY TO SAY, BUT THAT′S AN IMPORTANT THING THAT WE′LL LOOK AT BECAUSE THE AGE DISTRIBUTION CAN BE USEFUL WHEN YOU′RE LOOKING AT AN EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASE, IN TELLING YOU SOMETHING ABOUT WHETHER CERTAIN PARTS OF THE POPULATION WOULD HAVE BUILT-IN IMMUNITY AND WHETHER THE AGENT IS CAUSING PROBLEMS BY ITSELF OR HOW THE HOST IS RESPONDING.IT′S TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING THAT′S GOING ON IN MEXICO. THANKS VERY MUCH.

        >> THANK YOU ALL FOR ATTENDING TODAY′S PRESS BRIEFING. WE′LL PROBABLY BE BACK HERE AGAIN TOMORROW. THANK YOU.
        End
        ####
        U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES
        -
        <cite cite="http://www.cdc.gov/media/transcripts/2009/t090427.htm">CDC Press Briefing Transcripts April 27, 2009</cite>

        Comment


        • #34
          White House memo on swine flu

          The White House issued the following "Update on the H1 N1 Influenza and Suggested Protective Measures" to anyone who had traveled on President Obama's trip to Mexico:

          The White House Medical Unit has been in regular contact with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) regarding any possible or confirmed cases in the Washington Metropolitan area. We have learned that an individual who traveled to Mexico City to support the U.S. delegation that accompanied the President to Mexico City came down with flu-like symptoms associated with his work in Mexico. Three members of the individual?s family tested positive for Type A influenza, and tests are currently underway to determine if they contracted the 2009 H1N1 influenza strain. Individual family members suffered mild to moderate symptoms and received no medication and were not hospitalized. There have been no known instances of anyone working at the White House complex who has tested positive for a flu strain in the past month. We are providing this information so that you are aware of the CDC guidance that has been provided to the general public and the federal workforce.

          As you may already be aware, the CDC has confirmed 91 cases of H1N1 Flu outbreak in the United States. Twenty states, including one in the National Capital Region, have probable or confirmed cases. Within the United States, the CDC expects the number of cases to increase, and illness severity may also increase. Unlike seasonal influenza, the H1N1 influenza virus currently circulating cannot be prevented through vaccination. Fortunately, individual members of the Executive Office of the President can protect themselves and their co-workers through simple actions that reduce virus transmission and assist public health authorities.

          Influenza is transmitted through respiratory droplets that travel between 3 to 6 feet when an affected individual coughs or sneezes. In addition, the influenza virus may survive approximately 2 hours when affected individuals wipe their hands on surfaces such as doorknobs or tables. Limiting influenza exposure within the buildings at the White House Complex will allow normal operations to continue even if the world-wide influenza outbreak becomes more widespread.

          Acute respiratory symptoms that are normally considered minor take on added importance in the setting of a novel influenza virus outbreak. If you experience a new cough, runny nose, congestion, sore throat, body aches, or fever, stay home and see a physician before returning to work. The physician will diagnose and treat your condition. If you have influenza, antiviral medication can shorten the course of the illness.

          In addition, the physician will take a sample and send it to the local health department to determine if you have the new H1N1 virus. This information is critical for public health officials who can evaluate close contacts of H1N1 cases. Any individual diagnosed with influenza should not return to work for one week to avoid transmitting the virus to co-workers.

          Because of their population density, workplaces are susceptible to the spread of illness, so it is always good to take common health precautions. Employees who are not sick should wash their hands frequently with soap and/or gel sanitizers. They should avoid close contact with individuals exhibiting acute respiratory symptoms. If a household member becomes infected with the new H1N1 virus, guidance for home care is available at http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/guidance_homecare.htm.

          EOP staff members experiencing symptoms, or are susceptible to infection, or are needing to care for sick family members are encouraged to take leave. Please consult with your component administrative supervisor regarding this capability. Further, the Office of Personnel Management has guidelines for staff and supervisors during a pandemic health crisis. http://www.opm.gov/pandemic/agency/index.asp

          Please also consult with your component administrative supervisor regarding the potential for tele-working capabilities.

          Additional general information on the H1N1 virus is also available on the CDC website.

          Further information will be provided as this situation develops.

          Comment


          • #35
            CDC Telebriefing May 11, 2009, 1 p.m. ET


            CDC Telebriefing on Investigation of Human Cases of H1N1 Flu
            May 11, 2009, 1 p.m. ET

            Audio recording (MPEG)


            Dave Daigle: This is Dave Daigle from CDC Media Relations. Dr. Anne Schuchat from respiratory diseases will update us on the novel H1N1 outbreak.

            Anne Schuchat: Good afternoon. You know, I think this issue has been fading a little bit from the media, and I want to give you a sense of where we're at here at CDC. At CDC we're working on transitioning from identifying and understanding initial cases to a comprehensive longer term perspective.

            There's much to be done moving forward with an eye towards what will happen in the southern hemisphere and preparing for the fall here in the northern hemisphere. Currently, there are 116 CDC staff deployed in the field supporting outbreak response activities. Many of those efforts involve field investigations that are designed to strengthen our knowledge about how well this new virus is spreading, who is most at risk for illness, how effective prevention measures are, antiviral treatment and so forth.

            We're trying to build a strong foundation for understanding the spread of the virus by establishing lab diagnostic capability nationwide and throughout the world. As of today, all of the states have diagnostic test kits. 11 are confirming their own specimens and eight additional states will soon be confirming their own specimens. We've also shipped diagnostic test kits around the world and labs in most countries in the world will have them soon.

            As we mentioned, the vaccine development process is under way with the very first step involved in vaccine planning being preparation of a candidate virus, a virus that can be a candidate for vaccine development. CDC has sent five different virus isolates to eight different labs around the world and those laboratories will help us identify which would be best developed into a vaccine.
            We've issued a number of interim guidelines and we're at the point in the response where we are actively reviewing the guidance we've issued in light of what we've been learning to see whether changes or amendments to guidance will be appropriate.

            The scientific community is also continuing efforts to understand the origin of the virus and to track changes in the virus that may occur over time as we go forward. Our laboratory here at CDC is receiving about 300 to 400 specimens a day and for the priority specimens, we're able to provide results in less than 24 hours. Some specimens from late April still do await confirmation, but we understand now that few of the states continue to have significant backlogs. We believe we're being able to work cooperatively with the state to assure that processing goes forward. Soon some states may reach a point where it may become impossible to count individual cases and at that point they'll be transitioning to reporting systems that we use for seasonal influenza where we don't actually count individual cases.

            At CDC we'll continue to update the individual case counts for as long as possible, but we're also beginning to share with you our surveillance systems that we use for seasonal flu so that we can get a sense—or communicate a sense of the trends over time. As you know, we've been updating our website at 11:00 a.m. each day with a new case count. I want to mention that today we're doing a correction on the website because of a little bit of an error so that today's numbers there are 3300 probable and confirmed cases in the District of Columbia. That's actually a little bit lower than previously because we've been able to rule out some of the probable cases. The confirmed case count is 2600in 43 states in the District of Columbia. The most recent onset is May 5th and there are three known fatalities here in the United States with 94 confirmed cases that required hospitalization so far as we know as of today. Our hospitalizations and cases continue to occur in younger persons, the median age of cases is 15 years and 62&#37; of the confirmed cases are under 18. Of course, the WHO are updating their numbers and as of this morning they're reporting 6,094 confirmed cases with the first confirmed case in China being reported.

            I want to put the confirmed and suspect case information into context. As we've been saying, these actual numbers need to really be interpreted with caution. They tell us for sure that this virus is circulating throughout the United States and it is likely that it's found in every state even though we don't have confirmations in every single state so far. The numbers tell us that more people have become ill and more are likely to become ill, but we continue to see that most people who are becoming ill with this virus tend to recover in a way that's similar to what we see with seasonal flu; some fatalities, some hospitalizations, but the vast majority recovering from their illness. Another note of caution is that many states did not report over the weekend and so we expect there to be a big jump in cases tomorrow. That doesn't mean that there was a big jump in the onset of cases, but these are the cases that are getting officially reported or confirmed. We do think the numbers we're telling you are underestimates of how many people are actually infected.

            There's less need for the diagnostic testing as we've understood more and more about this virus, just as in seasonal influenza. The vast majority of people don't actually get a laboratory confirmation. So putting the numbers in context, the numbers that each state is confirming is affected by the number of people who go in for testing and the processes and policies that the states use in confirming those test results as well as the stability of what's really going in terms of disease trend. On our website and going forward, we're going to be sharing with you a way to track the novel influenza a virus activity consistent with the way we track seasonal flu, using our FluView system. This is available on our web site today, and it will show week by week what's going on. As of the May 8th FluView, we did find that a number of people visiting their doctors or healthcare providers with influenza-like illness is higher than expected in the U.S. for this time of year. You'll be able to see an increase or uptick in that statistic on the grass on the FluView. We also have data that shows that seasonal influenza viruses are continuing to circulate in the U.S., but this novel H1N1 virus as well as the unsubtypable viruses now do account for a significant number of the viruses we're detecting. It's about 40% of the past week's viruses that were this H1N1 virus, but we do see many strains that are other, regular seasonal flu viruses.

            I think there's a perception out there that we're winding down, that we're in a lull. It's a time when we really need to guard against complacency as we move into a new normal. We than this virus is present in our communities and it's actively circulating and we don't know what will happen come the fall. New theories are being offered in many areas and it's going to be important for science to move forward and evaluate those theories and just remember that we're-- we really think it's important to remain vigilant for what this new virus will do in our population in the southern hemisphere as well as in the U.S. this fall and we're taking impressive steps to have good information to moving policies going forward. I'd like to take questions at this point.

            Dave Daigle: Thank you. First question, please. Operator.

            Operator: Our first question is from Maggie Fox of Reuters. Your line is open. You may go ahead.

            Maggie Fox: Hi, Dr. Schuchat, I know it's just come out, but have you seen the new report in Science from the W.H.O. collaborative group looking at the genetics of the new H1N1?

            Anne Schuchat: Actually, I don't think I've actually seen the full report. Is this - I think we're part of that report here at CDC. Right? Yeah. I think my comment would be that the scientific community has been aggressively moving to understand this new virus and it's been a good collaboration across the W.H.O. collaborating laboratories. I haven't read the final paper, but I was aware it was going to be coming out.

            Dave Daigle: Thank you, Maggie. Next question, please, operator.

            Operator: The next is from Elizabeth Weise, USA Today, your line is open.

            Elizabeth Weise: Thanks for taking my question. I have two quick questions. The first one is looking at that Science Express paper they seem to-- they are certainly leaving open a door that there may be a residual immunity among older people because of potential previous exposures to H1N1.

            And my second question is I was out of the flu bubble this weekend and actually talking to regular people again and what I kept hearing from people is didn't they overreact and didn't they overreact, and I'm wondering how different has the response to this outbreak been? How much of this is because it's happening in real time or is that actually different from SARS or from Avian Influenza? I'm trying to get a sense of how this outbreak has been different from previous ones and how that has changed the way that we've reacted.

            Anne Schuchat: The question of residual immunity is a very important one and one that we would love to nail down because an important proportion of the population may not be at risk for this new virus. We don't have definitive information and there are a number of studies that are trying to get at that, and the laboratory studies and the epidemiologic studies. As you know, we do have reported cases as old as I think 81 years of age at this point. So we know that or actually now it's up to 86 years of age in terms of our confirmed cases. So we know that it's possible for laboratory confirmed disease to occur in seniors, but I think that issue has been an important one from the beginning.

            The question of overreacting is legitimate. What I would say is that some things have changed since the 2003 SARS epidemic and an important one out of the international health regulations. With this global cooperation and the IHR, we are committed as a global community to report and share information promptly on public health events of international concern. Here in the U.S. our government has invested quite a few resources in strengthening our preparedness in pandemic influenza and those resources helped us have stronger surveillance systems and new laboratory tests that helped us detect the problem in the U.S. more rapidly than I think we would have otherwise. So what I would say is that we don't want to have widespread international circulation of a new virus and find out about it months or years later. By rapid detection, we can get a leg up on prevention through things like vaccine production, should that be necessary. So I do think the global community is strengthened through the IHR and through the lessons learned from SARS and here in the U.S. we're greatly strengthened from our investments in our preparedness enterprise.

            Dave Daigle: Thank you, Elizabeth. Next question, please, operator.

            Operator: The next is from Mike Stobbe, the Associated Press. Your line is open.

            Mike Stobbe: Hi, thanks for taking the call. Doctor, first of all, earlier you said the unsubtypable now account for 40% of the past week's viruses. When you said past week you mean the week that just ended, the seven-day period, and then I have another one.

            Anne Schuchat: Yeah. On the FluView, you'll see the influenza-like illness graphic and I believe it's the week of-- which week is that? Sorry. I think it's week 17 which is--which has the uptick.

            Mike Stobbe: Last week?

            Anne Schuchat: I will check on which day. We'll follow-up for you on that. I thought it was the week of the 8th and the graphic doesn't say that. I'll have to double check. Basically, we're seeing an increase on the illness and the sentinel providers and we don't have today's data yet and the data that's shared in the increase. As I said, maybe I haven't said it today, there's a lag between the^-- when a case occurs when a person seeks medical care, when a laboratory test is carried out and when it is collected. Our epidemic curves do have a lag. It may look like cases are going down, but that primarily is because of this delay and between this illness occurs and when we know about it for sure. We haven't seen a drop in cases here in the U.S. and that is something we're looking toward in the future.

            Dave Daigle: Mike, you had a second part?

            Mike Stobbe: Yes, sir, thanks. The Science article that was referenced earlier, the authors estimated that between 6,000 and 232,000 infections has occurred in Mexico as of April 30th. They tried to give an actual feel of the impact going in Mexico. Do you have a good ballpark estimate? You've been listing confirmed and probable. How many infections do we really think are out there in the United States right now?

            Anne Schuchat: I think the cases that we're confirming are the tip of the iceberg here. We have really focused in many of the states in confirming the more serious cases, making sure that cases sought medical attention who had more severe illness, trying to avoid really clogging up the outpatient clinics or the emergency rooms. We know with seasonal influenza that there's a range between needing to stay home a few days because of high fever and muscle aches and cough to really severe illness requiring hospitalization. So I believe that the numbers we're reporting are a minority of the actual infections that are occurring in the country, but the way that we're tracking this we will be able to look at increases and peak and decreases. It's very important that we track the actual virus in a subset of patients and that's what our ilinet or sentinel providers will be doing, putting into context how much of what we're seeing that's the new virus versus the seasonal flu strain. That will be really important in the fall when seasonal flu is likely to be increasing. Differentiating this new virus from the regular flu strains will be very important. It's also something that will be a priority in the southern hemisphere to understand whether this new virus is taking hold or just fizzling out and whether the new virus is changing its characteristics, becoming resistant to the antiviral drugs or even changing it’s antigenic and immunologic properties, so if a vaccine were directed against it, that would need to be adjusted.

            Dave Daigle: Thanks, Mike. Next question, please, operator.

            Operator: The next is Allen Miranda from Excelsior. Your line is open.

            Alan Miranda: Hi, ma'am. Thank you for taking my question, and I would like to follow up on that-- on that topic about the backlog. You mentioned that these number of cases might just be the tip of the iceberg, but do you believe there are also deaths that have not been reported up to this point?

            Anne Schuchat: You know, that's a good question. Certainly many deaths occur without a specific diagnosis or a specific idea logic diagnosis. With seasonal influenza we do believe there are many deaths that are linked with influenza that present as cardiac problems or respiratory problems and one of our regular seasonal influenza tracking systems looks at pneumonia and influenza mortality. We're looking at that week by week and we don't see an increase in that over the expected baseline. That's one of the systems that we'll be tracking going forward that will help us know whether anew virus such as this one is having a substantial impact beyond what we're testing with the virologic study, for instance in the 1918 major pandemic, you will see a change in the pneumonia and influenza mortality surveillance above baseline and we're not seeing that change right now. So there may be some deaths that have occurred attributed to this virus that never got a specific diagnosis, but I don't believe so far here in the U.S. we have so many of them that they are of public health concern.

            Dave Daigle: Thanks, Allen. Next question, please, operator.

            Operator: The next is from Fred Mogul, WNYC. Your line is open.

            Fred Mogul: Yes, hello, Dr. Schuchat. It's a perennial in general question, but concern in a way, perhaps highlighted by the recent outbreak of H1N1 which is to say doctors prescribing, you know, antibiotics much of the year and in this case, antivirals and big rushes reported on pharmacies for Tamiflu. The CDC has been issuing guidelines and for many, many years has been trying to discourage this kind of behavior among physicians. I just wonder what you can say about past and current campaigns on that front.

            Anne Schuchat: You know, appropriate use of antibiotics and antiviral drugs is important. We want the medicines that we have to work when we need them and overuse or abuse of these medicines can contribute to resistance developing in some of the microbes. With the antiviral drugs that have been developed for influenza, the focus right now is on use and treatment and our guidance for this interim time, the H1N1 interim guidance focuses on treatment in persons who are presenting with severe illness or people with underlying medical conditions who might be at risk for a worst time for influenza, so, yes, we do think these are wonderful drugs to use appropriately, but the inappropriate use can contribute to resistance and to them not working when we really need them to.

            Dave Daigle: Thank you, Fred. Next question, please, operator.

            Operator: The next is Betsy McKay, Wall Street Journal. Your line is open.

            Betsy McKay: Thank you very much. Dr. Schuchat, a couple of questions. You mentioned one of the things you'll be watching for is whether this fizzles out. We've certainly seen viruses fizzle out in the past. I wonder if you could talk a little bit about what that could mean? If it fizzles out in the southern hemisphere, does that mean it is unlikely to emerge in the fall and so forth. My second question was two congressmen—Georgia congressmen who are both physicians said recently they don't believe H1N1 vaccine would be a worthwhile expense for taxpayers. Do you believe a vaccine would be worthwhile?

            Anne Schuchat: Thank you. The issue of the southern hemisphere is very important, but it's also important to remember that influenza viruses are unpredictable and so while I think that finding trends in the southern hemisphere can decrease the uncertain they we have in the northern hemisphere in the fall, we will still number a situation where some uncertainty persists, so I think the focus is on reducing uncertainty, but recognizing that influenza can be unpredictable.

            The issue of worthwhile investments going forward is a very important one at a time when our budget is constrained. For several years we've been chairing our pandemic preparedness planning and looking at worst case and best case scenarios understanding the economic impact as well as the health and social impact that a true pandemic could have. It's true that we have a novel virus circulating in the United States and in some other countries as well that we don't have general population immunity that can cause a range of illness from mild to severe, at this point similar to seasonal influenza. The ultimate impact that that virus could have going forward is less easy to predict. I think the ideas of investigating the initial steps, investing development which need to betaken months in advance of actually getting a vaccine are very prudent at this point as we do for any new influenza virus, and I think that the debate about the appropriateness in investments is one that will go forward.

            Dave Daigle: Thanks very much. Next question, please, operator.

            Operator: The next is from Robert Bazell, NBC news. Your line is open.

            Robert Bazell: Hi, thank you very much. Maybe I missed something over the weekend, but you mentioned a third death. Is that new information and if it is new information can you tell us as much as you can? What state, age, underlying medical condition and that sort of thing? Thank you.

            Anne Schuchat: There have been three deaths in the United States associated with this outbreak. Two of them occurred Texas and the third occurred Washington State. For details about the case in Washington State which was reported over the weekend, I would encourage you to contact the Washington State Health Department.

            Dave Daigle: Thanks, Bob. Next question, please, operator.

            Operator: The next is from Megha Satynanbrayana from the Detroit Free Press. Your line is open.

            Megha Satynanbrayana: Hi. I wonder if there is any thought on whether states should increase the number of sentinel sites they use in the fall to track the extra work in tracking two groups of virus?

            Anne Schuchat: You know, the surveillance systems going forward are a focus of our attention. One aspect that we're focusing on is increasing the viral testing that occurs in our sentinel provider sites. We do have a very large number of sentinel sites that have been participating over the last few years and we've expanded the number of sentinels in the last few years based on the investments in the pandemic preparedness in recognition that we needed a good, geographic representation. These are active discussions in conjunction with public health authorities in local and state areas, really honing in on what are the best ways to track this virus in the context of seasonal flu. As you'll see on the FluView site, we have several different systems that provide complimentary information including clinical characteristics, frequency and onset in the community and of course, the virologic circumstances.

            Dave Daigle: Thanks very much. I am told that's our last question. So we will send out both a media advisory and we'll e-mail folks for distribution on the next update. Thanks again.

            End

            ####

            U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

            Comment


            • #36
              CDC Telebriefing 05-15



              CDC Telebriefing on Investigation of Human Cases of H1N1 Flu
              May 15, 2009, 1:30 p.m. ET

              Audio recording (MPEG)

              Operator: Welcome, and thank you all for standing by. At this time, I would like to remind parties that your lines are on a listen-only mode until the question and answer session, at which time you can press star one to ask a question. Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I will now turn the meeting over to Glen Nowak. Thank you, sir, you may begin.

              Dave Daigle: Actually this is Dave Daigle, Deputy Director of Media Relations. Today we're going to have Dr. Dan Jernigan, who is the deputy director for the CDC's influenza physician, to update us on the H1N1 virus that's circulating. Dr. Jernigan will provide a short statement and take questions.

              Dan Jernigan: Thanks a lot. The H1N1 virus continues to circulate in the United States and people continue to be ill and to be hospitalized. Today we had our fourth death reported from Maricopa county in Arizona. There are 22 U.S. states that are reporting widespread or regional influenza activity, which is something that we would not expect at this time. There are, again, more deaths and hospitalizations that we're monitoring. There is increased amount of flu-like illness in New York City, in schools and in Houston in schools as a result of many children becoming sick with influenza-like illness that we presume will be the H1N1 virus. There are at least, in terms of our case counts, over 4,700 probable and confirmed cases in the United States.

              That number is one that we're continuing to follow. We will continue to get those numbers from the states that report to us, but the numbers are becoming less important as we move through the increasing numbers of cases. And so we are monitoring the influenza through other surveillance systems that the CDC and state health departments maintain. What we're seeing is there is geographic variation in H1N1 flu activity, and that is the activity appears to be highest in the Pacific Northwest and in southwest and in other areas of the country. So we expect, just as with seasonal flu, that the flu will appear in different places. It will come, it will go, so we're trying to monitor that. But overall, we're seeing increased activity.

              There are four known fatalities, like I mentioned. There are 173 hospitalizations that have been reported to CDC so far. Most of the cases that we have, again, remain among younger people in the ages of 5 to 24 years old. But unlike seasonal flu, we're still seeing relatively few cases in older individuals, and that may be just a matter of time until the virus is capable of getting to those populations, or maybe that it is a reflection of a different that this particular virus has in the populations that are affected.

              Internationally, the world health organization is reporting over 7,500 confirmed cases in 34 countries. We worked -- we're continuing to work very closely with our southern hemisphere partners to monitor influenza activity as we expect that it will increase over the next months during their flu season in the southern hemisphere. In Mexico there continues to be disease. It is just as in the United States, appearing in different places at different times. Some areas being more significantly affected than others.

              The estimates of the number of confirmed and probable cases in the United States are probably not the best indicator of transmission at this point because of the effect of testing, that is early on, a lot of tests were done but now the amount of testing is more targeted. And so they likely are underestimates of the actual number of people infected. And so we do know that in some places there are reporting thousands of suspect cases, and so as we know more, especially as we know more from the field teams that are doing household surveys and so forth, we will be able to have better estimates of the numbers of cases that we estimate are actually caused by influenza, the outpatient kind of illness.

              There has been some discussion about the virus mutating. We're working very closely with W.H.O., with other countries and academics and other collaborating centers around the globe to look at these viruses, to look at the gene sequences in them. And so far, we're not seeing significant evidence of any mutation towards more virulence in the U.S. However, we're continuing to look at these things, trying to see whether or not there are different kinds of illness that is caused by them. But at this point, nothing that we are able to say about any change that has occurred in the virus.

              In terms of CDC's response, we have more than 100 CDC staff that are in the field. Also in terms of helping to detect the H1N1 virus around the globe, we are working with the world health organization to distribute test kits. We distributed to 95 laboratories in all 50 states in the U.S. and to 237 laboratories in 107 countries. And we hope that having those very sensitive tests out around the globe, we will be able to get a good sense early on about where the virus is occurring. At this point, we're not seeing the seriousness of illness that was initially reported in Mexico in the United States, but this certainly does not mean that the outbreak is over. The H1N1 virus is not going away. We know that the outbreak is not localized but is spreading and appears to be expanding throughout the United States.

              So, this is an ongoing public health threat and continued vigilance and action is needed. And for the upcoming fall flu season, it is critically important for everyone now to be prepared and to follow with us and if you have illness, to see your doctor. If you're sick, stay home. Use those appropriate hygiene that we have described and follow with us on our website regarding the numbers of cases, the amount of illness and the guidance that's being developed at CDC.gov.

              Dave Daigle: Thank you, Dr. Jernigan. Operator, at this time, we will take the first question.

              Operator: The first question is from Robert Lowes, MedScape Medical News. Your line is open.

              Robert Lowes: Thank you, Dr. Jernigan. Now, The New York Times reported that a researcher investigating cases in Mexico found that one-third of the hospitalized patients from this flu did not have fever, which is odd in his view because that is typically a symptom of seasonal flu, and one-third of the patients he looked at didn't have that symptom. Is that also something that you have discovered in the United States? And if so, what does that say about the virus and screening for it?

              Dan Jernigan: Well, the report indicated that a number of people did not have fever. That is into the what we have seen so far in the United States. Of those that are hospitalized, all of those that we have been following have had fever except for those who might not be expected to have it, those older individuals might not have it, and some that are severely ill may not be able to mount a fever. But as a significant symptom or sign that is associated with this particular virus, we are not seeing the absence of fever as a prominent component.

              Dave Daigle: Thank you, Robert. Next question, please, operator.

              Operator: The next is from Rob Stein, Washington Post. Your line is open.

              Rob Stein: Yeah, Hi, thank you very much for taking my question. I had a couple of questions. First was, do you have any more information about the -- the latest death in Arizona? And where the other three were just to remind us. And also, I had a question about vaccine. There was an announcement today that one of the manufacturers was planning to proceed with an agument vaccine. I was wondering if that was something that the United States would be -- would be able to -- be interest the in using if they do ahead with that.

              Dan Jernigan: Your first question regarding deaths, I would refer you to the Maricopa county and Arizona state health departments for further information on that. They have put out some press releases and have some information on their web. The other sites that deaths have occurred, there are two in Texas and one in Washington state so far. In terms of the agument vaccines, that is something in other countries they have used them for seasonal influenza. There were early on some trials of vaccines for the Avian influenza prevented sax seen but in the United States, it's not something that has been approved for use by the FDA but we look forward to seeing how well that vaccine works and the potential for its use here.

              Dave Daigle: Thank you. Next question, please, operator.

              Operator: The next is from Donald McNeil, The New York Times. Your line is up.

              Donald McNeil: Hi, Dr. Jernigan. There's a growing gap between the usefulness of that 4,714 confirmed and probable cases and the actual number of cases around the country. I know the teams aren't all in yet but do you have any sort of estimate at all about how many cases we're talking about across the country? Is it 10,000, 20,000, 30,000? Any sense at all of what the real number is like?

              Dan Jernigan: Yeah, I agree with you regarding the utility of the numeric figure for influenza. And for that reason, we don't enumerate the numbers of individual cases each year in the United States. Somewhere between 7 percent to 10 percent of the U.S. population each year gets influenza, which is maybe 21 million to 30 million people a year. And so with the amount of activity that we're seeing now, it's a little hard to make an estimate about what that means in terms of the total number of people with flu out in the community. But if we had to make an estimate, I would say that the amount of activity we're seeing with our influenza-like illness network is probably upwards of maybe 100,000, but that's something we will have a much better estimate of once we get the information back from the field teams that are collecting that data.

              Dave Daigle: Thanks, Don. Next question, please, operator?

              Operator: The next is from Helen Branswell, The Canadian Press. Your line is up.

              Helen Branswell: Hi, thank you very much for taking my question. I was just looking at flu watch for this week, or FluView, excuse me. And it's really kind of interesting to see there seems to be quite a spike in activity not just for the new H1N1 but for a bunch of different types of flu. Is that an artifact of the fact that more testing is being done now than woo normally be done this time of the year, or is something weird going on?

              Dan Jernigan: I can with great certainty say that that is a reflection of the amount of testing that's going on. For those of you that follow this kind of thing, if you're looking at the curves, you will see that there's a nice bell shape to our season from last year -- from this past season, rather. And that significant increase at the end of the season, that significant increase is a reflection of this profound amount of testing that has gone on in the last few weeks. The interesting thing, as you point out is that when we start testing everyone that looks like they have flu, we find a number of them that do have flu and what we're find is only about half of those have the h 1 -- the new h1 virus. The others have the circulating seasonal kinds of viruses. And so what that means is that there is even at this end of the usual season, the regular season, a fair amount of regular viruses that are circulating in addition to these from h1. But I think the important message is that we would be expecting to see the season to be slowing down or almost completely stopped from the kinds of surveillance systems that we normally monitor. But what we're seeing is that there are some areas that actually have reports of the amounts of respiratory disease that are coming into their clinics that are equivalent to peak influenza season, and so that's an indicator to us that there's something going on with the amount of influenza disease out there. But in terms of us enumerating that, we're not able to do that at this point.

              Dave Daigle: Thank you, Helen. Next question, operator.

              Operator: The next is from John Cohen, Science Magazine. Your line is open.

              John Cohen: Hi. Thanks for taking my call. I wanted to clarify something Helen just asked and also ask a question about vaccines. There's a report that several European countries have secured purchase with Glaxo of H1N1 novel, H1N1 for next year. If the U.S. makes that decision, who makes that? Is that an HHS decision? Is that a CDC decision? Who actually makes it? And is there a time line cutoff date when the decision will be made? The other question -- I can wait until you answer the first one. Thanks.

              Dan Jernigan: Yeah, I think vaccine decisions are made through an inner agency group within the federal government, predominantly through HHS. So that inner agency group is actively engaged right now and they are working through these issues and the key decisions are likely to be made soon regarding the U.S. plans.

              Dave Daigle: The time line?

              Dan Jernigan: The time line, I don't have a time which that is but it's as soon as possible. There are a number of factors that you know about manufacturing and so forth that require these decisions to be made very quickly.

              Dave Daigle: John, what was your question about the FluView?

              Dave Daigle: He had a second question.

              Dan Jernigan: Yes.

              Dave Daigle: Operator, I think we might have lost John.

              John Cohen: I'm here.

              Dan Jernigan: Excellent.

              John Cohen: I'm here.

              Dave Daigle: John, did you have a second question about FluView?

              John Cohen: I did. You're saying there's increased activity from normal surveillance but it's confusing given that there's so much more surveillance, how do you factor out whether it's the increased surveillance that's leading to this abnormal activity when 50 percent of what you're seeing is seasonal flu?

              Dan Jernigan: Right. I think it's a difference between the types of surveillance systems. So one of them is the -- what we call viral logic surveillance. It's where we actually collect the viruses and enumerate them, characterize them, et cetera. And so that's one that is completely dependent upon people sending in specimens where they can be appropriated tested and characterized. And that's where you see that tremendous increase at the end of this season. The other is an influenza illness network of 4,500 clinicians and other providers that tell us how many people are coming into their clinics for all causes and also tell us how many of those people are coming in with fever and influenza-like illness symptoms. And so that one is going to be less affected by media and by other factors and is not one that we stimulate through any kind of public health activity but would be in part, perhaps, reflective of some media interest. But even in the time that the interest has waned, we see that those folks are still coming in. And what we also see is that those upticks in certain regions are consistent with anecdotal reports and other reports we get of school closures and of increased illness in communities.

              Dave Daigle: Thank you, John. Next question, please, operator.

              Operator: The next is from David Brown, Washington Post. Your line is open.

              David Brown: Yes, Hi, thanks. There's a report that there is a -- yet another new H1N1 virus that has been found in the states of Durango, Zack teakous and halisco in Mexico that is distinct from both this -- this swine H1N1 and the seasonal Brisbane H1N1. Have you heard of this? And can you tell us anything about this?

              Dan Jernigan: We've heard of some reports about that, but I have not had any direct information about the specifics of that case. So there's ongoing dialogue between us and the folks that are in Mexico and so as we know more about that, we will be able to let people know.

              Dave Daigle: Thank you, David. Next question, please, operator.

              Operator: The next is from Stacey Singer, Palm Beach Post. Your line is open.

              Stacey Singer: Hi. Thanks for taking my call. My question is in the serious cases where we're seeing hospitalizations in this country and in Mexico and the deaths as well, has the site of the storm frequently play a role in the deaths? What are people dying of when they're trying?

              Dan Jernigan: The issue of side akind storm is one that clearly influenza has been associated with in the past. We have reason to believe that could be a part of the cause here. The numbers of individuals that have died that we actually have appropriate tissues and enough information to study is still pretty small. We have seen that some individuals do appear to have what looks like viral pneumonia. So that is a direct infection of the lower respiratory track by the flu virus. And so as we learn more, I think we'll be able to say if there are unique features about the H1N1, but what we are seeing so far are the kinds of outcomes that have been previously described for influenza, but that's something that we are very interested in and we want to learn more about.

              Dave Daigle: Thank you, Stacey. Next question, please, operator.

              Operator: The next is from Michelle Merrill, Hospital Employee Health. Your line is open.

              Michelle Merrill: Thank you very much. I had a couple of questions. One is, do you have any idea as to how many health care workers have been infected either in the community which could pose a threat to patients in the hospital, or due to occupational exposure? And I also have a second question about your respiratory protection guidance. While that guidance has remained the same, state and local health departments around the country have differing guidance. And I'm just wondering what you think about that situation in which, you know, does that create a confusion because depending on where you live, you have different guidance about the level of respiratory protection.

              Dan Jernigan: Right. I think there are a number of issues that have to be taken into account. And you're very aware of all of them regarding protection of the workers and the ability to -- to do your work given all of the protective equipment and other requirements for worker protection. At this point there have been no changes to the guidance that's on our website. The discussions that we're having are with NIOSH and OSHA and with others to try to identify what is the most appropriately based science guidance to offer protection in this setting.

              In terms of the numbers, your question was also about the variation in guidance. When the guidances are written, in general, of course, they are all interim guidance at this point but those guidances are intended to have or offer some flex ability so that some localities based on the context can make some decisions. And so for various guidance on our web, we allow for there to be some flexibility so that states can take into account the unique activities and the unique amount of disease in those activities -- in those jurisdictions and come up with the appropriate guidance. In terms of the numbers of confirmed or probable health care personnel, there are 56 confirmed or probable that we know of in 20 states. And that represents about 1.4 percent of all currently reported cases. In terms of where they're their exposures occurred and whether or not they traveled to someplace or had exposures elsewhere and brought it into the health care setting, those are things that you our investigative teams are now working through. Because we think that's very important information that we want to help to inform decision-making but the numbers of case that's we have that we can ask those questions of may be too small for us to get some of the important questions answered at this time.

              Dave Daigle: Thank you, Michelle. Next question, please, operator.

              Operator: The next is from Kate Trainor, aghp. Your line is open.

              Kate Trainor: Hi. Thank you for taking my question. I know the CDC has said you're going to be looking very closely at the southern hemisphere for what develops down there. So I was wondering if you can tell us what specific signs you might be looking for that SEVERE disease might or might not be coming this way in the fall. And sort of on the other side of that, how do you weigh that information against the fact that the harder you look, the more stuff you're going to find, kind of similar to what's going on here as far as finding both the seasonal and new H1N1 flu in the northern hemisphere?

              Dan Jernigan: Over the last few years, the CDC and other public health agencies have been working with folks notice southern hemisphere and in tropical areas to try to characterize with the baseline what the amount of influenza is through their seasons. For many countries in the southern hemisphere, their seasons are just now starting and will peak in the next month to two. So we want to be able to work there to identify a couple of things in particular. We want to look at severity and we want to look at the spread of infection. So there are different ways to do that. We work with the laboratories down there to characterize the viruses that are circulating. That will tell us if virus that's we have chosen for a vaccine are still good or the right ones that are likely to come back. It will also tell us if there's changes in the virus and also if there's development of antiviral resistance. The next thing we would want to look at is people who are admitted for SEVERE acute respiratory illness, so there are protocols and process that's have been worked out over the last few years that will be implemented through our partners in this regions to try to characterize that. And then finally there are estimates of the amount of influenza-like illness in the community, that we welcome working with them as well.

              Dave Daigle: Thank you, Kate. Next question, please, operator.

              Operator: The next is from Kafi Drexel, New York 1. Your line is open.

              Kafi Drexel: Hi, how are you? Earlier today in New York City's press conference regarding the latest cluster of H1N1 at an intermediate school here, the question was posed kind of by, why has this been happening in schools? And our outgoing health commissioner himself commented that it's a little surprising to them because they usually don't see this in a regular flu season where there are situations where 20 or 30 kids at a time come in with high fever on a single day. Also, it doesn't seem like this is impacting as many older adults as usual at this point. So do you have any further insight as to why some of these clusters may be happening more in school environments? Are you looking at whether or not H1N1 is acting differently in younger people? And then also, regarding the vaccine, if you could talk a little bit more specifically on where the CDC is as far as what's happening with that and what the thinking is as far as going ahead and developing that for fall. Looking ahead.

              Dan Jernigan: Yes. I think you're pointing out an important feature of influenza, and that is that younger people are often more affected. If we look at who gets influenza each year, the predominance, if you want to call it reservoir of influenza is in the school-aged children' so, therefore, schools are where a younger place can congregate and share their influenza viruses amongst themselves and that often then allows for other folks to become infected as well. For this particular H1N1, it's following along seasonal flu in that sense. But when we look at the blood of people who have -- that we have collected over the past few years, we're able to see that the older you are, the more likely you might have some evidence that you could respond somewhat to the H1N1 novel virus that's circulating. And so what that suggests to us is that not only are skids as usual affected more, there is a chance that they may be completely naive or immune, not have any immunity to the virus. So that suggests that we want to do something to make sure that we protect them. And so while in the usual season, we may not close schools. Now it may make sense to do that. My understanding is in New York City these school closures have occurred because of the staffing issues and the number of peoples affected, and I believe that was their decision. In terms of the vaccine, as you know, there's many steps involved with producing a flu sax seen. Vaccine. And we're working with under HHS agencies and vaccine manufacturers to go through those steps as fast as possible.

              Dave Daigle: Thank you. Next question, please, operator.

              Operator: The next is from Donald McNeil, The New York Times. Your line is open.

              Don McNeil: Hi. Thank you for taking a second one. I wanted to ask about infection control in schools. We're seeing pictures now in New York City of the custodians wiping down door handles and washing the schools but if the schools are being closed for a week and the virus dies in 48 hours, that seems like a cosmetic exercise and I'm wondering -- I don't notice any infection guidelines, infection control guidelines for school on the CDC website or any other. I wonder if you have suggestions or plans for schools and what they would be and what do you do when the students come back into the school so you don't get a resurgence?

              Dan Jernigan: In terms of environmental infection control issues, there are different guidances that are not on the H1N1 influenza swine -- excuse me -- site. However, those guidances are on our infection control site and can be found there. But in particular here, the closing of the schools is in addition to allow for time so that transmission among those folks who are not in school can either burn out or get -- have an opportunity to not be spread within the school environment. In terms of the specific guidance for infection control in schools, we do not have that on our website, but there are places on the CDC website that get out issues of environmental cleaning.

              Dave Daigle: Thank you, Don. Next question, please, operator.


              Operator: The next is from Helen Branswell, The Canadian Press. Your line is open.

              Helen Branswell: Hi. Thanks for coming back to me as well. Dan, I'm clear about your answer to me and to John Cohen about the amount of activity that's going on now. Do you think that there is more activity than would be normally seen at this time of year, or is it just more testing is being done? Is something weird going on? Is there an interplay of these viruses?

              Dan Jernigan: I think the simple answer is yes, we think there is more activity. We are seeing it anecdotally, we are seeing it in our surveillance systems and we have a novel virus that has emerged for which there is no immunity in the fair amount of the population. So everything at this point suggests that there is ongoing activity and we're seeing that in other countries as well, in this western hemisphere.

              Dave Daigle: Thank you, Helen. I have just been handed a late breaker, so we will have Dr. Cetron make a short announcement.

              Marty Cetron: I just wanted to indicate that later today, CDC would likely be posting a downgrade to the travel warning that is currently up regarding Mexico, which is at a level four alert that suggests folks defer not essential travel to Mexico. That will be downgraded to a travel precaution. And this will focus on providing particular precautionary advice to those individuals who are at high risk for complications of influenza. As Dr. Jernigan has probably already discussed in his brief, very high proportion of our hospitalizations are occurring among those who have underlying health conditions that put them at risk for complications, and our travel precaution will be particularly providing advice to those individuals regarding seeing their physician and getting specific advice on the feasibility and reasonableness for them. Bust the overall travel alert will be lowered from a warning to a precaution in that regard. And this information that we expect will be on the -- on the CDC website later, by the end of the day today.

              Dave Daigle: Dr. Martin Cetron, is the Director of the Global Migration and Quarantine Division. We do not plan a briefing right now pending any major developments for Saturday and Sunday. I want to thank everybody for joining us. Thanks very much. Good-bye.

              End

              Comment


              • #37
                Re: CDC Telebriefing 05-15

                I got a small chuckle that the CDC transcript writer didn't know what to do with cytakine storm & wrote it down as "site of the storm" and "side akind storm".
                :lol:

                Comment


                • #38
                  Re: CDC Telebriefing 05-15

                  Probably machine transcription. Those are typical kinds of errors. Also "sax seen" for vaccine. A person wouldn't have been likely to make that mistake.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    CDC Press Conference May 15: &quot;Probably&quot; 100,000 have Flu Like Illness in USA

                    Highlights of the CDC May 15 press conference:

                    The CDC roughly estimates that over 100,000 in the USA currently have the flu:

                    if we had to make an estimate, I would say that the amount of activity we're seeing with our influenza-like illness network is probably upwards of maybe 100,000, but that's something we will have a much better estimate of once we get the information back from the field teams that are collecting that data.
                    Commenting on the New York Times report that many novel H1N1 patients in Mexico did not have fever, the CDC said that US victims almost always have fever:

                    as a significant symptom or sign that is associated with this particular virus, we are not seeing the absence of fever as a prominent component
                    The CDCs reports say that the regular flu is infecting many more patients than normal this time of year. The CDC says that is not really happening, but we are noticing more cases because there is so much interest in the new flu that more flu cases of all types are being reported.

                    I can with great certainty say that that is a reflection of the amount of testing that's going on.
                    Half the flu cases being tested have the new flu, and half have regular, seasonal flu.

                    when we start testing everyone that looks like they have flu, we find a number of them that do have flu and what we're find is only about half of those have the h 1 -- the new h1 virus. The others have the circulating seasonal kinds of viruses.
                    Some areas of the country have as many patients visiting doctors for flu as is normal at the peak of the flu season:

                    what we're seeing is that there are some areas that actually have reports of the amounts of respiratory disease that are coming into their clinics that are equivalent to peak influenza season, and so that's an indicator to us that there's something going on with the amount of influenza disease out there.
                    Cytokine storms and viral pneumonia may be causes of some of the deaths:

                    We have reason to believe that [cytokine storms] could be a part of the cause here. The numbers of individuals that have died that we actually have appropriate tissues and enough information to study is still pretty small. We have seen that some individuals do appear to have what looks like viral pneumonia. So that is a direct infection of the lower respiratory track by the flu virus.
                    According to blood tests, the older one is, the more likely to have some immunity to the new H1N1 flu virus, while children may not have any immunity at all:

                    when we look at the blood of people who have -- that we have collected over the past few years, we're able to see that the older you are, the more likely you might have some evidence that you could respond somewhat to the H1N1 novel virus that's circulating. And so what that suggests to us is that not only are kids as usual affected more, there is a chance that they may be completely naive or [not] immune, not have any immunity to the virus
                    CDC press conference May 15

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      CDC: No evidence of mutation

                      I forgot to add the CDC's quote about mutation:

                      There has been some discussion about the [new H1N1] virus mutating. We're working very closely with W.H.O., with other countries and academics and other collaborating centers around the globe to look at these viruses, to look at the gene sequences in them. And so far, we're not seeing significant evidence of any mutation towards more virulence in the U.S. However, we're continuing to look at these things, trying to see whether or not there are different kinds of illness that is caused by them. But at this point, nothing that we are able to say about any change that has occurred in the virus.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        CDC Telebriefing May 18, 2009, 12 noon ET




                        Dave Daigle: Thank you. This is Dave Daigle from CDC Media Relations. Today we'll do an update on the novel H1N1 outbreak. Doctor Schuchat will provide a brief statement and then take questions. Thanks very much.

                        Anne Schuchat: Good afternoon, everyone. My first statement to you is the H1N1 is not going away, despite what you may have heard. As you know, the World Health Assembly is convening from Geneva, and the Department of Health and Human Services is at the Assembly. We are expecting the H1N1 issue to dominate the meeting, and I wanted to alert you to Director General Margaret Chan's statement from the W.H.O. She said that influenza viruses are the ultimate moving target, and I think that really captures that scenario we're coping with right now. This novel H1N1 virus is still circulating in the United States. People are continuing to get sick, to get hospitalized, and unfortunately, to die. At this point, there are six deaths that have been reported officially. And, you know, we feel for the families that are experiencing those losses.

                        As of today, there are 22 states around the country that are reporting widespread or regional influenza activity. And unfortunately, based on the trends we're seeing, we do expect more illness, more hospitalizations and more deaths. You may have heard that New York City and a few other places have had a number of outbreaks in schools, and some of them have issued recommendations for school closures at individual schools that have been affected. Those measures are consistent with the school guidance that we have updated, which suggests that there is a need for a localized response. The illness severity that we're seeing continues to be pretty similar to what is caused by seasonal influenza, and we feel this means we need to remain vigilant. We are now experiencing higher levels of influenza-like illness than is normal for this time of year. We're also seeing numerous outbreaks in schools, which is also very unusual for this time of year. Influenza is always serious, and influenza viruses are very unpredictable. So unfortunately, it's uncertain right now how severe this outbreak will be in terms of the ultimate illness and mortality toll that it takes, or whether this virus will turn out to be worse than others that we've handled through the seasonal flu experience. Things could change quickly, and we do continue our efforts to prepare, particularly for the fall, where history tells us we might have a second wave of this new virus. As of today, our official case counts are a total of 5,123 cases throughout the U.S. We are seeing some geographic variation in the H1N1 flu activity, with activity appearing to be highest right now in the Pacific Northwest and the Southwest. We know that our case counts are very incomplete. They are just what we call the tip of the iceberg. We're also looking at influenza-like illness, and we're seeing more reports of influenza-like illness from our outpatient visits that are monitored than would be typical for this time of year. There have been over 200 hospitalizations, and, as I mentioned, six fatalities. The illness that we're seeing and the hospitalizations that we're seeing are primarily in younger people. Between 5 and 24 is the age group of the majority of cases so far. And unlike the seasonal flu, we're seeing relatively few cases or hospitalizations in people over 65. That's a very different feature that seems to be holding up through the surveillance that we're doing. In terms of the international situation, the W.H.O. latest figures stand at 8,480 confirmed cases in 39 countries; recently added to the countries that have had at least one case are India, Malaysia and Turkey. Japan is now describing the first cases of in-country transmission, and those are being further investigated. And I want to mention a little bit about Mexico. As you know, Mexico has been hard-hit, similarly to the United States. But the overall trend appears to be downward in Mexico with more sporadic cases rather than the larger reports we were seeing earlier. On Friday, the CDC and the Department of State issued updated travel advice. We downgraded our travel advice for Mexico. Earlier, we had recommended that travelers defer nonessential travel. But since Friday, our advice went down to a precaution. Our main advice now is for those people who are at risk of complications from influenza because of underlying illness, pregnancy, or advanced age, that they ought to check with their health care provider before embarking on a trip. But so that we think that's an important change in our travel recommendations, and want to make sure people know that. We do think it's fine for most people to travel to Mexico at this point. As I've mentioned, the numbers that we give you are really not as helpful as the patterns. And so I want to alert you to our website where we are continuing to use our routine seasonal flu systems, which we call FluView, and you'll see there a lot of different ways of describing what's going on. A map that shows the states that have had widespread disease or regional disease, as well as the trends in the viral originic testing and the influenza illness. We do see in that system that the seasonal influenza viruses are continuing to circulate. But about half of all of the influenza viruses we're seeing recently are this novel H1N1 virus. Some people have been asking, has the virus changed, is it mutating or causing more disease. From the stains we're testing there is no evidence right now of any mutation toward a more virulent strain, but they can change and we will continue to look at them and track whether the virus is acquiring resistance, whether other features are changing. That would be important as we move forward towards our control efforts, or even towards vaccination development. We do think that the way the virus is spreading in the U.S. we are not out of the woods, and disease is continuing. Our CDC efforts continue fairly aggressively. We still have more than 80 people deployed in the field, and we have continued to support the laboratories and states here in the U.S., as well as in countries shipping our diagnostic kits to 95 labs in 50 states, and to 237 labs in 107 countries. At this point, 40 of the states here in the U.S. have got validated testing going on. And that is really good news, meaning they don't -- they no longer need to have us confirm their results for them. We're in active discussions regarding vaccine development and potential production. CDC and others are working on development of a seed strain to make a candidate virus that could be turned over to manufacturing for production. This is in very active stages of discussion right now. Because, as you know, if you want to make a vaccine, it takes several months before it can become available, depending on how the manufacturing and clinical trials go. You may also have been hearing about W.H.O. and whether or not they will change their phase to a phase 6. We're currently at Phase 5. The Phase 6 designation has not been decided upon. A Phase 6 means that the virus is spreading in a sustained way, in at least two regions of the world. And we haven't -- that hasn't been officially declared. It's important to know that we're seeing sustained spread here in the U.S., and we're acting very aggressively. And so if it changed to a Phase 6 would have less impact for us here in the U.S. than for countries that haven't yet gone into full -- a full court press on this virus. I want to just close by saying that I think it's important to dispel the idea that we're out of the woods, or that this was a problem that really didn't merit response. I think that we continue to see illness, it's a new virus, it's capable of causing severe disease. We hope that it will not continue to cause illness and outbreaks in the Southern hemisphere the way it's been causing problems here in the U.S. But we really need to continue to have our guard up, and to continue to be vigilant as we look towards the summer in the Southern hemisphere and the fall back here in the U.S. So, you know, the final comment is influenza is unpredictable, and we really need to stay attuned to that, to be prepared for surprises in the days and weeks ahead. So let me take some questions from the phone, please.

                        Dave Daigle: Thank you, Doctor Schuchat. And my apologies, she is with the Immunization and Respiratory Disease Center. And with that, Operator, please open the line for questions.

                        Operator: Thank you. At this time if you would like to ask a question, you may press star 1, and the first question is from Maggie Fox "Reuters," and go ahead and ask your question.

                        Maggie Fox: Thank you very much. Given that we still don't quite understand the pattern of disease and whether it's really disproportionately affecting younger people and why, is the way the testing is being done, the policy for testing, and not testing every case, will that give you the information you need to know to understand what the true denominator is, and what the true geographical pattern of the disease is?

                        Anne Schuchat: We're using a variety of systems to understand the pattern of disease, and which people are at greatest risk for illness or complications. I do think that the tendency for younger people to affect -- to be affected is persisting in our evaluations. Initially, we thought maybe this is just the first cases we're seeing, but that's been a trend over time, over several weeks. It could be that in the fall older people are more affected, or over the weeks ahead, we'll see more cases. But particularly when we look in detail at the hospitalized patients, we aren't seeing many seniors in that group. And that's very unusual for seasonal influenza. We think that our systems, like the ones that track influenza-like illness and some systems that look at emergency room visits or syndromic surveillance that some of the states maintain could be very helpful in understanding whether things are getting better or getting worse. But we're also carrying out a number of field investigations. Those 80-some people that are deployed are helping states with their challenges, or helping Mexico with their challenges. But they're also intensively evaluating the detail of patients who are ill, including those who are hospitalized, and really trying to nail down some of those missing variables that we have.

                        Dave Daigle: Thank you, Maggie. The next question, please.

                        Operator: The next question is from the "Wall Street Journal."

                        Betsy McKay: I wanted to follow up on the same theme about whether you knew anything about why this disease seems to be hitting younger people. And so I wondered if you know or have evidence showing that older people have been exposed. For example, have the school children in New York City passed it to their parents, grandparents or other adults, older adults in the community? I mean, you know, elderly people? And also, is there any credence to this hypothesis that has been going around that older adults may indeed have some immunity?

                        Anne Schuchat: Those are two good questions. We do have some information to shed light on that -- observation that more children or teens are affected. We've been looking in some of the field investigations with our colleagues in the states at the attack rates in households, looking at what happens to other members of the family when one person has this influenza-like illness or the H1N1 strain confirmed. And what we see in the data so far is that the people under 18 are more likely to have infection when another person in the family is infected. It may be that they're more -- the transmission is a bit more active in the younger population than in the older population. So what we call age-specific attack rates in the households do suggest a difference in transmission to younger people versus older people. Now, from the literature from other infectious diseases and from some infectious disease modeling, we believe that children are very good at transmitting infectious diseases. They have lots of social contacts, and in particular, younger children may shed the virus for a longer time. We are looking at virtual shedding in some of the field investigations, but I don't have those data yet. You also asked about the older population. And certainly one of our working hypotheses is that older adults may have some preexisting protection against this virus due to exposure they had long ago to some other virus that might have been somewhat related. We haven't gotten that totally confirmed through laboratory testing, but it's an active working hypothesis. Of course, the alternate hypothesis is that it just may take longer for this virus to make its way into the senior population. If kids hang around with other kids, and seniors hang around with other seniors, and the virus is really spreading rapidly among the kids, it just may take a bit of time, and then it may enter that senior population more aggressively than it has so far.

                        Dave Daigle: Thank you, Betsy. Next question, please, operator.

                        Operator: One moment. Next is from Elizabeth Weise from "USA today" your line is open.

                        Elizabeth Weise: Hi, thanks for taking my call. Where is the decision-making process on a vaccine, and secondly, given the death rates we're seeing in the United States, can you give us a metric to compare those two with seasonal influenzas this low, high, and are you seeing what's actually killing people? Is that any different than it would be in a regular seasonal influenza outbreak?

                        Anne Schuchat: Great. Okay. You know, CDC is just one part of the government that will be contributing to decisions about vaccine development, vaccine production, and then ultimately vaccine -- a vaccine program. And those are three different decisions. The parts of the government that are engaged in this include CDC, the FDA, the NIH, parts of health and human services, including the assistant secretary for preparedness and response. And our -- all of these groups are working very actively in discussions to understand the decision points that lie ahead. So the first step is well under way, the development of that candidate virus that could be handed off for vaccine development. And active decisions about the steps that would follow thereafter. You know, the death rate -- are we seeing more fatalities than we would expect with seasonal influenza, or a higher proportion of illness than with seasonal influenza? I think our best estimate right now is that the fatality is likely a little bit higher than seasonal influenza, but not necessarily substantially higher. On the other hand, the hospitalizations that we're tracking have this disproportionate occurrence among younger persons. That's very unusual to have, you know, so many people under 20 requiring hospitalization and in some of those intensive care units. We're trying to actively investigate those and get better characteristics of what the illness looks like. We have not yet found strong evidence for bacterial pneumonia that might be complicating an influenza illness. That's one of the hypotheses people have had about why people might need to be hospitalized. It's something that we look for, we don't yet have a final answer on that, but so far, we believe it's a little bit more of a virtual pneumonia pattern than a later secondary bacterial pneumonia pattern. And so as our cause of death data gets better, we really don't have big enough numbers right now to shed a lot of light on that. It's one of the things we're looking at in conjunction with international colleagues. So I think that's an important finding. You know, as people look back at the 1918 pandemic, it was actually looking through autopsy material and reports that people came to interesting conclusions about causes of death that were very important in that pandemic.

                        Dave Daigle: Thank you.

                        Operator: The next is from John Cohen, "science magazine." Your line is open.

                        John Cohen: Thank you for taking my call. Apparently other countries have weighed in about the decision to move from phase 5 to 6. Has the U.S. government or CDC representatives weighed in on this at the meeting, and if not, why not?

                        Anne Schuchat: I don't know the answer to that. I'm sorry.

                        Dave Daigle: Next question, please, operator.

                        Operator: The next is from Daniel DeNoon, WebMD. Your line is open.

                        Daniel DeNoon: Thank you very much, Doctor Schuchat. Good afternoon -- good morning, I guess, starting a new week. The finding that the viral cases, serial cases are viral, does that suggest this has a special tropism -- is there something different about this virus that seems to suggest that pathology? And along the same lines, Doctor Chan in her address today was talking about the presence of diarrhea in and vomiting in 25% of cases. Do you have any evidence of that kind of shedding, and could you talk about the implications of that kind of shed? Thank you.

                        Anne Schuchat: You know, I think it's too soon for me to make a grand conclusion about the viral pneumonia question. It's something we want to look more actively at. The diarrheal -- gastrointestinal systems is something we are definitely seeing in the U.S. in a proportionate number of cases. This is something that differs from seasonal influenza, good a quarter of cases where we have the right kind of clinical data have vomiting or diarrhea, not just the usual respiratory systems. I think that's an important feature that needs to be looked at. Interestingly, children may be more likely to have that nausea and vomiting versus adults with this new virus. So there is probably going to be a lot of interesting findings as biologists and scientists take a better look at this virus and some of the clinical and epidemiologic patterns that we see. We're still collecting data and trying to share with you as we get it.

                        Dave Daigle: Thank you. Next question, operator.

                        Operator: The next is Donna Young, ?Bioworld Today.? Your line is open.

                        Donna Young: Thank you for taking my question. I know you mentioned today's that you're seeing a lot more the seasonal influenza coming in later, you know, like May. This is really late for that flu to come in. And how can they be certain that what they're seeing is actually seasonal influenza and not like a completely different virus from the H1N1 and the regular seasonal influenza virus that was, you know, hitting earlier in the year? Is there -- are they -- like, when they're testing, I assuming what they're doing is ruling out whether it's H1N1. But are they also ruling out whether it is also a completely different influenza that was striking during the winter, like in January?

                        Anne Schuchat: No. We would be doing additional testing to make sure that the newer -- that the viruses we're seeing are consistent with the seasonal flu strains. You know, part of what we do here at the CDC as an international -- as a W.H.O. international collaborating center is characterize the viruses from seasonal flu. That can con TRIBTD to strain selection for next year's -- next year's influenza vaccine. And we do the testing not just of this novel H1N1 strain, but of the seasonal strain. So we are continuing to see strains of influenza B., influenza H3 N2, and the regular H1N1 continuing to circulate. But about half of the isolates that are being tested these days, either here or in the states are this novel H1N1. And we don't know what's going to happen in the fall, whether we'll see more of the H1N1, whether it would replace the old H1N1, or whether it will have the four kinds of influenza circulating at the same time, or over different months next year. So lots of -- lots of really important questions that we just unfortunately don't have answers to.

                        Dave Daigle: Thank you, Donna. Next question, please, operator.

                        Operator: The next is from Lisa Schnirring, CIDRAP news. Your line is open.

                        Lisa Schnirring: Hi, thanks for taking my call. School is going to be out in most places in a couple of weeks. And how do you think that might affect community spread of the new flu?

                        Anne Schuchat: We are very interested in that question. You know, the school circumstances involve lots of people in a particular place, with lots of mixing. Whether children will be congregating in similar environments in summer, perhaps on summer camps or on trips, as the school groups or something, you know, might be similar to the way that kids are congregating in a school environment. On the other hand, in most of the U.S., the season will change quite a bit in the summer, and those conditions, the summer months, the warm and some of humidity circumstances may be less conducive to influenza virus circulating, at least for seasonal flu. So we -- we would love to see a decrease in cases, and to see the end of these outbreaks that are affecting schools. But my influenza expert colleagues tell me, you know, there have been influenza outbreaks in in camps, even just with seasonal influenza, and so we really need to be alert to that possibility.

                        Dave Daigle: Thank you, Lisa. Next question, please, operator.

                        Operator: The next is from Richard Knox, "National Public Radio." Your line is open.

                        Richard Knox: Thanks very much. I appreciate the opportunity. One thing, just to finish a thought that Daniel DeNoon brought up with possible sequel shedding, I don't think I got quite clear. Is there any evidence yet as to whether it is shed by that route or not yet? And I have a couple of others.

                        Anne Schuchat: Sure. We are looking at shedding, and I'm not aware of results yet about gastro intestinal shedding. It's certainly a question we have, since that definitely can happen with viruses.

                        Dave Daigle: Richard, what were your other questions?

                        Richard Knox: And if so, is it being used to determine whether there have been wider spread than has been reported or maybe even asymptomic spread. And then finally, if I may, some have wondered whether we might see a summer flu phenomenon. I think you just suggested that you think it is likely to follow the usual pattern in which temperature and humidity will suppress that. But like Frank MONTO suggested, maybe we will. Can you discuss a little bit about the possibilities of that?

                        Anne Schuchat: We are very interested in the question of asymptomatic spread, and that's part of the evaluations that we're doing. This can happen with seasonal influenza strains, and we are looking at that possibility, as well. We're working towards development of a sear logic as sate that can tell us whether a lot of people have been exposed without getting clinical systems. So that's another thing we'll be looking for. We don't have results on that yet at this time. We wonder whether this strain will continue during the summer, and give us more of a summer influenza pattern. This is certainly a possibility. It's not something that I can predict. Most years, the seasonal influenza strains have very reduced amounts here in the northern hemisphere. Unfortunately, we don't know whether we'll get a break this summer with this virus. We'll be looking there and also in the southern hemisphere where we expect there may be an important increase of this virus.

                        Dave Daigle: Thank you, Richard. Next question, please, operator.

                        Operator: The next is from Marilynn Marchone, "The Associated Press.?

                        Marilynn Marchone: Hi, thank you for doing this again. I have a couple more questions that go along the lines of virulence of the virus. And I'm wondering for instance when west Nile virus emerged and we have new germs that come up, you have done sear owe surveys or things like that to try to get a better handle on the attack writ. You mentioned household surveys, and I'm wonder figure there are anymore general carriage studies under way, and also if anyone is collecting information on previous vaccination statuses, anyone who has become ill with swine flu.

                        Anne Schuchat: There are active investigations beyond the household settings to understand transmission and asymptomatic infection. The second question -- I just blanked on. Could you repeat the second one again?

                        Marilynn Marchone: If anyone is collecting information on previous flu shots, and anyone -- whether that theory about older people have some immunity perhaps through either natural exposure or previous vaccination?

                        Anne Schuchat: Yes, thank you. There are investigations that are looking at previous influenza vaccinations this past season, and whether there is any partial protection against this particular virus from the seasonal flu vaccine. That would include different age groups to understand whether the patterns we're seeing in older persons who have a higher proportion of vaccine exposure -- you know, basically is what the vaccination is much more common among people over 65 than it is in the general population. We don't think right now that the vaccination against seasonal flu provides protection. But we will be looking at those data carefully as they continue to amass. We don't think that's the explanation for the situation with seniors, but it's still a possibilities, and we'll complete those studies to look into that.

                        Dave Daigle: Thank you, Marilynn. Operator, we can take two more questions.

                        Operator: The next is from Rob Waters, "Bloomberg News" Your line is open.

                        Rob Waters: Thanks very much. Most of my questions have been answered, actually, but I did want to make sure about one fact. The six cases, the six deaths, are those all confirmed, and can you tell me where they are? What states they're from?

                        Anne Schuchat: Yes, what I do is refer you to our website. I believe our website just has five of the deaths listed. It does include their geographic area. This is WWW.CDC.GOV, and you can hit the spotlight for H1N1. The sixth death that isn't yet on our website was announced by New York City. So New York state is the sixth state. This wouldn't be on our table.

                        Dave Daigle: Thank you, Rob. Next question, please, Operator.

                        Operator: The next is from Sandra Young, CNN, your line is open.

                        Sandra Young: Yes, hi, thanks for taking my call. I'm wondering, there were about a thousand sick children at one New York City school, more than 200 another. And look at the big picture of schools overall in the U.S., I'm wondering if these are big numbers. In other words, are the H1N1 numbers higher at New York City schools than they are at other schools?

                        Anne Schuchat: There are a number of schools around the country that are experiencing substantial outbreaks. The majority of schools are not. So we are aware that health departments are looking into outbreaks of influenza-like illness in schools within their jurisdictions. And CDC is assisting in some of those efforts. This is -- this -- we can see outbreaks in schools during seasonal -- the season of influenza. That can sometimes happen. I would say it's very unusual to have several outbreaks in schools this late in the year in multiple different states. So this is another one of those unusual features of this novel influenza strain that we're seeing. And it's certainly been a challenge for the communities, you know, to manage those problems.

                        Dave Daigle: Thank you, Sandra and thanks to all of you for joining us today. We don't have a briefing planned for tomorrow, but we can always put one together if need-be. Thanks again. Bye.

                        End

                        ####

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Re: CDC Telebriefing May 18, 2009, 12 noon ET

                          On Matt Drudge in bold headlines today, May 18, 2009 -

                          CDC: 100,000 LIKELY INFECTED WITH NEW STRAIN IN USA

                          U.S. health officials troubled by new flu pattern
                          Mon May 18, 2009 4:12pm EDT

                          By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Editor

                          WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The new influenza strain circulating around most of the United States is putting a worrying number of young adults and children into the hospital and hitting more schools than usual, U.S. health officials said on Monday.

                          The H1N1 swine flu virus killed a vice principal at a New York City school over the weekend and has spread to 48 states. While it appears to be mild, it is affecting a disproportionate number of children, teenagers and young adults.

                          This includes people needing hospitalization -- now up to 200, said Dr. Anne Schuchat of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

                          "That's very unusual, to have so many people under 20 to require hospitalization, and some of them in (intensive care units)," Schuchat told reporters in a telephone briefing.

                          "We are now experiencing levels of influenza-like illness that are higher than usual for this time of year," Schuchat added. "We are also seeing outbreaks in schools, which is extremely unusual for this time of year."

                          New York City Health Commissioner Dr. Thomas Frieden agreed with Schuchat.

                          "We're seeing increasing numbers of people going to emergency departments saying they have fever and flu, particularly young people in the 5 to 17 age group, " Frieden, who has been named by U.S. President Barack Obama as the new CDC director, told a news conference.

                          About half of all cases of influenza are being diagnosed as the new H1N1 strain, while the rest are influenza B, or the seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 strains. Flu season in the United States is usually almost over by May.

                          CDC officials say around 100,000 people are likely infected with the new flu strain in the United States and Schuchat said the 5,123 confirmed and probable cases and six deaths in the United States were "the tip of the iceberg."

                          MORE ILLNESS OVERALL

                          "We are seeing more reports of influenza-like illness from outpatient visits that we monitor than is typical for this time of year," Schuchat said.

                          Because doctors usually treat symptoms and only occasionally give flu tests to patients, the CDC must monitor reports of symptoms such as fever, cough and muscle aches to track flu activity. Some centers are doing actual influenza tests to confirm the patterns that are seen.

                          Influenza is a factor in 36,000 deaths a year in the United States and 250,000 to 500,000 deaths globally, the CDC says.

                          "Unlike the seasonal flu, we are seeing relatively few cases or hospitalizations in people over 65," Schuchat said. Usually flu kills the elderly and people with chronic diseases.

                          There is no evidence that a second, bacterial infection is worsening the H1N1 cases, Schuchat said.

                          When family members are questioned, it seems clear that children and teens are more prone to infection than older adults, Schuchat said. "People under 18 are more likely to have infections when another person in the family is infected," she said.

                          "One of our working hypotheses is that older adults may have some pre-existing protection against this virus due to their exposure long ago to some virus that may be distantly related," Schuchat said.

                          An alternative hypothesis is that it just has not had a chance to make its way into the older population yet.

                          (Editing by Julie Steenhuysen and Xavier Briand)

                          URL: http://www.reuters.com/article/domes...rpc=22&sp=true

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Re: CDC &amp; White House Media Briefings on Swine Flu Epidemic

                            http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/press/


                            May 18, 2009


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                            "In the beginning of change, the patriot is a scarce man (or woman https://flutrackers.com/forum/core/i...ilies/wink.png), and brave, and hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, the timid join him, for it then costs nothing to be a patriot."- Mark TwainReason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it. -Thomas Paine

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              CDC Telebriefing May 19, 2009, 2 pm ET

                              Dave Daigle: Good afternoon, everyone. This is Dave Daigle and thank you for joining today′s update. Dr. Anne Schuchat will give us an update on the novel H1N1 outbreak. We′re going to begin with a short statement and then take questions.

                              Anne Schuchat: Good afternoon, everyone. The H1N1 virus continues to circulate in the United States and in many other countries. As you know the World Health Assembly has been meeting this week in Geneva and the Department of Health and Human Services are there. I understand there′s been excellent global cooperation to understand the virus and to take productive measures. There′s a reminder really in the meeting about the role of personal responsibility -- national responsibility and personal responsibility in addressing this issue. In terms of the personal responsibility we remind you that people who have flu-like illness shouldn′t be traveling. If your kids are ill, you should keep them home. If you′re ill, you should stay home from work. Those are simple necessary messages, but something we think is necessary at this point with the virus widely circulating.

                              The virus is still circulating here in the U.S. People are continuing to become ill, are continuing to be hospitalized, and unfortunately we do have some deaths. Twenty-two states are spreading activity. As many of you have heard that New York City and a few other places have been closing other places like schools as a result of a large number of children having influenza-like symptoms. Those steps that New York City are taking are consistent with the guidance we′ve issued around schools. There′s a need for localized responses, and when absentee rates are high or our staff are ill, it′s appropriate to close schools if they′re really not able to function.

                              I want to highlight two areas of particular interest. I want to focus a little more on protecting children during an outbreak, plus a series of hospitalized patients that were reviewed from California. Outbreaks of schools have been a big feature of this H1N1 virus in terms of our population experience. We are seeing outbreaks in a number of schools at a very late point in the season, very different from the picture with seasonal influenza where we sometimes have school outbreaks, but they aren′t this late in the year. It′s understandable that parents are frustrated and are looking for ways to protect their children from flu and other infectious diseases. As we know from seasonal influenza, aside from closing school for a very extended period of time, there′s really no approach that′s going to completely stop or prevent transmission of flu in a school setting. We take that kind of intervention very seriously. We typically would reserve that kind of thing for a very severe influenza-type of virus. If the school is closed for a suspended period of time, children are still susceptible to flu if they interact with other people, some of whom might be contagious even though they don′t have visible symptoms. We′re working together to strike a balance between measures that may have a balance between slowing transmission and those that create other problems. Seasonal influenza illness rates are highest in school-aged children. That′s a reason that we recommend seasonal flu vaccines for children in the ages -- all the way up to age 18. The seasonal influenza vaccine recommendations were issued in the past couple of years, and those have been recommended in order to reduce school absenteeism and to keep kids healthy and in school where they can learn.

                              We also have been recommending seasonal flu vaccines for children with chronic health problems like asthma and diabetes, who are at higher risk of developing serious complications from the seasonal flu. But thankfully, serious complications from seasonal influenza are rare in school-aged children. When it comes to the H1N1 virus, so far it seems like the largest number of our novel H1N1 confirmed and probable cases are occurring in people from the ages of 5 to 24, so many of them would be school-aged children. We don′t have any deaths reported in people of this age group at this time. But we would not be surprised to see serious hospitalizations and deaths occurring in people of this age group. I think we need to be prepared for that.

                              But stepping back and looking really at the big picture and what we can do about it, I do think that public health schools and parents are able to cope with this. We experience the kind of challenge that we′re seeing right now during seasonal flu season. While we don′t have perfect measures, we are able to manage. It′s important that children and school staff who are ill stay home, and we′re recommending that they do so for seven days in terms of our current guidance. We may be changing guidance in the future, but at this point that′s our best recommendation in terms of a time period where people can make sure that they won′t come back to school and infect other people. Unfortunately there′s no approach that guarantees protection from infectious diseases spread like things from influenza viruses. And that′s why we work to develop and use vaccines. Vaccines may ultimately be the best approach to this sort of problem that we′re having, and certainly we think they′re the best approach for the seasonal influenza challenges.

                              I want to talk a little bit about the MMWR that was issued earlier this morning from California authorities. The authorities in California reported on a series of 30 people who were hospitalized there for the H1N1 virus. They summarized 30 cases as of May 17th, and their detailed descriptions of four cases, which we think illustrate the spectrum of illnesses that we′re seeing among this virus. Even among hospitalized cases there seems to be a range of severity from relatively short hospitalizations to longer, much more complicated hospitalizations. We also have information in that MMWR about underlying conditions that are common among the people who required hospitalizations and information about the chronicle symptoms.

                              It might be helpful to put in context with some reports that we′ve had from Mexico or from individual physicians who have been caring for patients. About 2/3 of the patients in this hospital series had at least one underlying medical condition that would put them at higher risk for influenza. The most common conditions were chronic lung diseases, conditions associated with depression, chronic heart disease, obesity, and pregnancy was a feature of many of the patients. Pregnancy was -- there were five pregnant women in this series of 30 patients. In terms of the clinical symptoms, nearly all of the hospitalized patients had fever at the time of admission. Only one of the 30 didn′t have fever. Besides fever other common symptoms were cough and shortness of breath, and vomiting was present. That′s unusual for seasonal flu. The preliminary overview of hospitalized patients in this MMWR indicates that although the majority of hospitalized people infected with this new H1N1 virus recovered without complications, certain people did have severe and prolonged disease. None of the patients in this hospitalized series died. There are still some of these patients in the hospital, and so we don′t know whether they′ll make it or not. We do recommend that all hospitalized patients with this novel H1N1 virus be monitored carefully, and we recommend that they be treated with antiviral therapy. Even the ones that come in for care after it′s been more than 48 hours for the onset.

                              In closing I want to say that we do think this virus is continuing to spread around the country and that our data of to date suggests it′s pretty much all over the United States. While we′re not seeing the seriousness of illness that we saw in those initial reports from Mexico, this virus is capable of causing a range of illness from mild to quite severe or even fatal. This does remain an ongoing health threat. The government is busy focusing on. Public health and clinical providers are busy. But we think there′s a role for everyone in taking action to reduce illness and limit spread. So, all of us do have a shared responsibility in our protective actions. And I would be happy to answer questions now.

                              Dave Daigle: Thank you. Operator, first question, please.

                              Operator: Thank you, our first question from Helen Branswell, the Canadian Press, please go ahead.

                              Helen Branswell: Is anybody looking for, and is anybody finding any evidence of, coinfection with MRSA?

                              Anne Schuchat: We′re very interested in that question. As you know, the seasonal influenza in children we′ve been tracking pediatric deaths, and we have seen MRSA among seasonal flu cases in children at a higher rate than we had expected. MRSA is a big problem in the United States right now in terms of the community associated resistant staff or its infections. So far as we′ve been looking at the patients with the H1N1 virus, we don′t have evidence of coinfection. Not everybody has been tested for bacterial infections. But among the ones that have been tested, we aren′t seeing an important role for bacterial coinfection, including MRSA. I think this is an important issue for us to continue to follow, whether bacterial co-infections or bacterial pneumonias following the illness are featured. It′s a feature we′re interested in but haven′t seen this turn up yet.

                              Dave Daigle: Thank you. Next question, operator.

                              Operator: Next question from JoNel Aleccia at MSNBC.com.

                              JoNel Aleccia: You′re talking about the role of personal responsibility today. I have one question. In homes where children have been confirmed to have swine flu, but there are other children, what should the role of the parents be in sending those kids to school, and what should the role of the schools be in allowing them to attend?

                              Anne Schuchat: You know, at this point for homes that are dealing with a person who is ill with this new virus, we′re recommending that a designated family member be identified who can care for the child or adult who is sick, and that you try to limit contact between that ill person and others in the household. When we look at the household attack rates that we′re seeing in some of our investigations, they′re not that high. It′s not like every single person in the household is coming down with influenza-like illness. So we do think that taking some steps to reduce spread in the household by really just Focusing on one person caring for the sick person may be effective and reduce that even further.

                              We haven′t recommended that household contacts of children who were ill stay home from school. We have been really trying to strike a balance at this point in the disruption that′s caused by this virus. In terms of health impact. And the disruption that′s caused by a recommendation. That′s the type of measure that′s under discussion always with influenza, and it′s been under discussion in our pandemic planning, but some of the more disruptive steps in terms of the social distancing and community mitigation efforts are usually reserved for the more severe viruses, the ones that look more like that 1918 strain.

                              Dave Daigle: Thank you, next question please, operator.

                              Operator: Next question from David Brown, the Washington Post.

                              David Brown: Thank you. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about community spread, whether there are any places, any states, and if there are, which ones they are, where there′s sort of true community spread going on through places, through non-school environments, just neighborhoods, et cetera, et cetera, you know. The sort of thing that one sees in bad seasonal outbreaks. Has it gotten that kind of traction yet, and if so, where?

                              Anne Schuchat: I do think that we′re seeing community spread of this virus. Early on in our response efforts a high proportion of the cases that were being confirmed had history of travel to Mexico. Later on more of them had history of household contact with someone who was ill. I think at this point in addition to the school outbreaks we do believe there′s transmission in the community. That′s one of the reasons that we′re asking people who are ill to stay home and for people who have vulnerabilities, people at high risk for complications from influenza, we′re suggesting that they be careful about attending large gatherings. We know that you can actually spread influenza, including this H1N1 virus before you even have symptoms. So by trying to have the symptomatic people stay home and away from others, we think that′s a good idea. The way we′re tracking what′s going on with influenza around the country right now is a mixture of our surveillance through the influenza-like illness network of providers and through syndromic surveillance systems. Based on those kind of reportings, we think that activity right now is highest in the southwest and in some Midwestern areas, but we actually know that there′s some cities that are having a bit more disease than the whole state. On our website you can find something called flu view that has a map showing whether states are designated by their experts to be having widespread activity or regional activity or local activity. Widespread activity means more than half of the regions in the state are having influenza-like illness above the baseline rate. So even in some states that aren′t having widespread activity, we know from some of the syndromic surveillance systems that disease is quite high in certain cities. So at the state level we think activity is high nest the southwest and the midwest, and then through the media reporting there are probably a number of cities having more than expected disease.

                              Dave Daigle: Next question, operator.

                              Operator: Next question from Emma Hitt, MedScape. Please go ahead.

                              Emma Hitt: Thanks for taking my call. It came out last night that the woman who was pregnant in Texas and died from H1N1 in Texas had no other medical conditions apparently. She was perfectly healthy and died. So is pregnancy considered an underlying medical condition?

                              Anne Schuchat: Of course, pregnancy a great thing, and it′s not a disease. On the other hand, pregnancy can increase your risk of certain medical problems. Pregnancy is a risk factor for worse complications from influenza. There are probably multiple mechanisms by which that occurs. There is some suppression that occurs during pregnancy. There may be also a role for the mechanical affect of pregnancy in decreasing the lung capacity. You know, when you′re very pregnant your lungs don′t expand as well. Maybe you′re not easily able to handle a lung infection. The effect of pregnancy is well known for a number of infectious diseases. For many years we recommend that all pregnant women receive seasonal flu vaccines to reduce their chance of complications. In some of the reports so far, the hospital series and earlier MMWR that we did about pregnancy, we reminded people about that seasonal flu vaccine recommendation, but we also saw in some of the case reports it was not just a risk to the mother. There were sometimes occurrences of complications of pregnancy, like pre-term labor. So we really think influenza can be much worse in pregnancy, and that′s something that we′re attending to. We′ve issued guidance for clinicians to say that it′s important to treat with antiviral drugs. We think at this point pregnancy is a risk factor for worsening complications of H1N1.

                              Dave Daigle: Thank you, Emma. Next question, operator.

                              Operator: Next question from Richard Knox, National Public Radio.

                              Richard Knox: Is there evidence you know of that the new H1N1 is outcompeting seasonal flu viruses in some place? Are they circulating in the same schools with these new viruses? And if evidence does emerge that the new virus is overtaking seasonal viruses, what implications would that have for planning, need for a vaccine or perhaps a signal of increasing fitness of the new virus?

                              Anne Schuchat: This is a really important issue. We know that regular seasonal influenza viruses are continuing to circulate right now. Of course, we think we′re doing a lot more testing and looking a bit harder for them. So we′re seeing more of them than we would usually see at this time of year. On the other hand, the non novel H1N1 viruses, the seasonal flu viruses are no longer the majority of cases of viral testing that we′re seeing. At this point for the period since -- let me just see how this works. Well, we think that it may be as much as half or even more of the viruses that we′re testing right now that are this new H1N1 virus or that couldn′t be subtyped in. We think that are essentially the same thing. So the seasonal flu viruses continue to circulate. The particular risk here, especially in planning, looking towards the fall, is that co-circulation of this new virus together with our seasonal strain might put us at risk for there to be a reassortment event. In particular we′re concerned that the seasonal H1N1 virus right now is resistant, but this new H1N1 strain is susceptible. If those two strains reassorted and we got a new strain that was a combination of those two, we would hate to see this novel strain essentially become resistant through that mechanism. The issue of individual schools or localities is a little harder for me to answer based on the data that I have. I′m aware that we have seen in cities with active school outbreaks, they′re still finding patients with influenza-B. But in terms of the same school or household, I don′t have that type of day that.

                              Dave Daigle: Thank you. Next question please, operator.

                              Operator: Next question from Steve Steinberg, USA Today.

                              Steve Steinberg: Would you mind talking a little bit more about the course of illness based on the California data, but others. Are people coming in with extremely high fevers? You know, what sorts of -- what sorts of symptoms are you seeing? I know there′s the usual range. But if you could help pin down what this illness looks like, that would be helpful.

                              Anne Schuchat: Yes, the presenting symptoms do include fever in most people. But sometimes it′s not a very high fever. It ranges from a low-grade fever to quite high. We do see pneumonia or x-ray findings in a number of the patients. 60% of the hospitalized reports had infiltrates on an x-ray. Intensive care units emission was required by 20% of the patients in that hospital series, and mechanical ventilation, really a sign that it′s a very severe respiratory illness was required in 13% of the hospitalized patients. So this -- while some people came in with relatively minor dehydration or an exacerbation of asthma, others had a stress syndrome. The vast majority of those who didn′t have underlying medical conditions or pregnancy had pretty short hospitalizations that were not complicated. Some of those with the medical conditions had prolonged and difficult hospitalizations.

                              Dave Daigle: Thank you, Steve. Next question please, operator.

                              Operator: Next question is from Delthia Ricks from Newsday.

                              Delthia Ricks: I would like to know if any of the H1N1 isolates carry a factor that would account for what you′re seeing in symptoms?

                              Anne Schuchat: What has been looked at so far in the laboratory through the genetic sequencing that has been done is to try to see if the marker from the 1918 campaign or the the bird flu. We haven′t seen those markers or signals. On the other hand, it′s probably multi-factorial. I think the researchers both here and around the world who are looking at the sequences of the viruss are studying them to understand whether there may be new things. On the other hand we know with even seasonal influenza virus strains, we see a range of clinical illness. Every year between 50 and 100 children die from seasonal influenza. So viruses, even the ones that cause minor illness in most people can actually cause quite severe disease without the special markers found in 1918.

                              Dave Daigle: Thank you. Next question please, operator.

                              Operator: Next question from Kate Traynor, AJHP.

                              Kate Traynor: Thanks so much for taking my question. The MMWR report on the California patients mentioned obesity as a risk factor in several of the people who were hospitalized. I know obesity by itself isn′t specifically listed as a risk factor for either seasonal influenza vaccination or using ANTIVIRALS. Should physicians be thinking about giving these patients ANTIVIRAL medications if they seem to have the H1N1 flu?

                              Anne Schuchat: We were surprised by the frequency of obesity among the severe cases that we′ve been tracking. I do think it′s an important result. The question of whether people with obesity need to be treated differently in terms of ANTIVIRAL treatment or seasonal flu vaccinations is one we′re looking into right. If there truly is an increased risk of severe complications on obese patients, it would be important to take steps to attend to that. One unfortunate statistic right now is that the U.S. is experiencing an epidemic of obesity. We had much higher rates of obesity in the U.S. than we had 10 or 20 years ago. Both in children and adults. So it′s hard for us to say at this point to say whether the number of patients with reported obesity is significantly higher than we would expect. It was a bit surprising on first glimpse. A lot of theorys people are entertaining now. Some people with morbid obesity have a syndrome where they have fairly severe respiratory compromised just based on the extra weight they′re carrying on their chest. We know chronic lung disease is a risk factor for influenza complications and the need for vaccination. So we′re speculating about whether that′s what′s going on in this circumstance or whether we haven′t analyzed things well enough to know if it′s more than we would expect by chance alone.

                              Dave Daigle: Operator, we can take two more questions, please.

                              Operator: Our next question from Alyah Khan, Inside Washington Publishers.

                              Alyah Khan: Thanks for taking my call. My questions relate to health care workers. My first question is if there′s any number you can give of confirmed cases of health care workers who have been infected with the H1N1 virus. The second part of my question was there′s been concern express ed that local and health state departments aren′t conforming to the guidelines in terms of protecting workers. Is the CDC or any other agency taking steps to address gaps in protecting health care workers, and if not, are the state and local health departments, are they required to follow the CDC guidance?

                              Anne Schuchat: Health care workers are vital to the response to influence as well as other medical conditions. They′re really at the front line of caring for the ill. Protecting health care workers is very important to us. We′ve issued interim guidance for protecting workers against this H1N1 strain based on the lack of information about all the different ways this new strain can spread. Our recommendations for the novel H1N1 virus are a bit more strict than our recommendations for seasonal influenza in terms of respiratory droplet protection versus additional steps that are taken for avoiding airborne exposure or small droplets of transmission. I would say if guidance for health care workers is something that we continually evaluate. Whether it′s strong enough or too strong is an important question of great concern I think to a number of organizations and individuals. We are investigating health care workers. I don′t have today′s latest statistics. I was just looking for them while I was talking to you about how many health care workers have been reported to have the new virus. We have a couple of investigations ongoing to look at this. Have the workers who had the virus been exposed in the community or at home or through travel, for instance? Or is it possible they got this on the job? In some of our investigations we′re finding there are a lot of exposures in the community and that the illness isn′t necessarily from the health care environment. So I think the issue of health care worker is very important in this kind of thing. We′re continuing to reevaluate our guidance.

                              Dave Daigle: Last question, please, operator.

                              Operator: Our final question from Sylvia Garduno, Reforma Newspaper.

                              Sylvia Garduno: Hi, hello. Thanks for taking my question. It is regarding with the released of hospitalized patients with influenza. 17 of the patients were Hispanic. I don′t have if you have any other reference about if this illness is affecting Hispanics more than other ethnic groups in the United States or what is happening. What can you say about this information? Thank you.

                              Anne Schuchat: Thank you for that question. I don′t have the statistics nationally about the racial or ethnic breakdown of the cases. The California experience which was reported in the MMWR describes people who were detected with the illness relatively early in the course of this outbreak. The California health department initiated active surveillance for hospitalized patients very early. Because they were the state that had the first cases of this condition. They initiated their act of surveillance April 20th, before we went to a national alert. And so the frequency of Hispanics in that series might be quite different than the rest of the U.S., both because it′s early reports where we think many people had exposure to Mexico. In California it′s very common to have exposure to Mexico. The Hispanic population is much greater than the rest of the country. At this point I don′t have the national statistics. I′m not sure we can make a lot of conclusions on that particular report.

                              Dave Daigle: This concludes our briefing at this time. Thanks for joining us, everyone.

                              Good-bye.


                              End

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                CDC Telebriefing 05/20/2009

                                Operator: At this time, your lines have been placed on listen only until we open up for questions and answers. Please be advised that today's conference is recorded. I will turn the conference over to Mr. Tom Skinner.

                                Tom Skinner: Thank you, Lauren. Thank you all for joining us today for this update on H1N1. Today we have with us the deputy director of our influenza division, Dr. Daniel Jernigan who will replied a brief update for you and then open it up for questions. Dr. Jernigan.

                                Daniel Jernigan: Thanks a lot. The H1N1 continues to circulate in the United States. There are localized outbreaks that are ongoing in several states. Those include Arizona, California, Illinois, New York, Texas, Washington, and Wisconsin that have reported the most activity so far. There is on our website regional influenza activity that folks can go and look up. In New York City and in surrounding areas, they are seeing increased levels of novel H1N1 influenza. Some schools in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut are temporarily closing when there's evidence of unusually high and sustained number of flu-like illnesses. The New York City health department is an incredible health department, has been working nonstop and they have noted through their own surveillance systems some sharp increases in visits to the emergency departments for influenza-like illness. In terms of the global cases, there have been reported to W.H.O. over 10,000 confirmed cases in 41 countries. In Mexico, there is ongoing transmissions that overall possibly less activity being reported in some of those areas. The total probable and confirmed cases in the United States continues to rise. There are now reported eight fatalities. Of the viruses that have been collected through the surveillance systems in the United States, most of those viruses, about 78%, are the novel H1N1 influenza. We know the known confirmed and probable cases represent, again, only a portion of the number of people that are infected or ill from the virus and, so, there is likely to be increased numbers of cases out in the community. In the United States, as I mentioned, there were eight known fatalities. There are 247 individuals that have been hospitalized and over 70% of those are of those hospitalized patients have had underlying chronic medical conditions, including pregnancy. Asthma and heart disease are some of the most common. So far, we know that individuals that are being hospitalized, many of them are receiving antibacterial therapy or treatment with antibiotics. What we are seeing not as much of is the use of antivirals in H1N1 are being first being seen and being admitted of what are suspected to be H1N1 or suspected to be influenza, but, in addition, we know a number of the cases that have been hospitalized have presented with pneumonias and we want to be sure that those individuals do receive antivirals for pneumonia because that is one presentation that we're seeing with H1N1 hospitalizations. So far, the largest number of Novel H1N1 confirmed and probable cases, over 60% remain in the 5- to 24-year-olds. Of those that are hospitalized, 40% are in the 19- to 49-year-olds. So far, we continue to provide diagnostic kits to a number of countries around the globe and to many states. 44 of them are now able to do their own confirmations. In terms of a vaccine, the production of seasonal flu vaccine is nearly complete and will be completed hopefully as planned. Efforts to grow the candidate vaccines, viruses, for this Novel H1N1 vaccine are well under way. We are at CDC hopeful that we will have vaccine viruses ready to send to manufacturers at the end of may and we're working to speed up the process as fast as possible. As evidenced by recent state and city reports, H1N1 activity is likely to occur in different places at different times. We expect that this may continue over the summer. We're not quite sure what will happen in the fall, but we are being prepared for there to be an increase in the number of H1N1 cases later in the year. At this point, I'll open up for questions. Laura, we're ready for questions.

                                Operator: Thank you, and at this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by 1 on your touch-tone phone. Our first question comes from Robert Bazell, NBC News, please go ahead.

                                Robert Bazell, NBC: Thank you very much. I'm going to ask two questions. We've heard repeatedly from health officials that this Novel virus is at least somewhat for transmissible than most seasonal influenzas that you've seen. What is that based on and does it make any difference whatsoever in terms of the public health recommendations that you would make? And the second question is that, there's no question if you put a bunch of people, and some of them have influenza, into a confined space like a schoolroom, they're more likely to give it to each other. The CDC had said earlier on that when you made the decision not to recommend school closures, that school closures does not affect the community transmission. Is there any change in that perspective based on the more knowledge you've gained over time? Thank you.

                                Daniel Jernigan: Sir, let me address the second one. I think the fact that you comment that the problem in the schools did not have any issue in the community. I don't think that's exactly the case. What we were saying is that transmission was occurring in the community and, therefore, the effectiveness of closing schools might not be as great. So, I think it's not so much that we didn't think it would have an effect on the community. It's just that we were seeing transmission already occurring in the community and, therefore, one benefit for doing school closures was not met there. In terms of the amount of disease, what we would call the attack rate or the efficiency of the virus to go from one person to more than one person, that is spreading through community, early on. From Mexico and certain places in Mexico, there were some studies that did indicate that there was a very high attack rate, and that just means that any one individual was giving it to a whole lot more individuals and that the overall population was getting a lot of infection. The more we look at it here in the United States, what we're seeing is the attack rates really coming in at about what we would see with seasonal influenza. The household attack rates, that is what's occurring in terms of transmission within a household, is about the same as what we would see with seasonal influenza and the transmission within communities where we've been able to do those kinds of analyses indicate that they're right at about what we would expect for seasonal influenza, so that just means that we expect from a policy standpoint, we expect this to be spreading the same as we would see with seasonal influenza, but again, remember that a larger portion of the population may have absolutely no immunity or any protection for this one, which is different than what would happen through normal seasonal influenza.

                                Tom Skinner: Next question, Laura?

                                Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Daniel DeNoon, WebMD.

                                Daniel DeNoon: Thanks for taking my question. When the World Health Organization's strategic advisory group put out their recommendations, they said older adults were shown to process serum neutralizing most likely due to cross-immunity with H1N1 viruses. I didn't know that was an established fact. Could you comment on that and tell me where -- about where they got that and whether that is, in fact, the case?

                                Daniel Jernigan: Yeah, I think that information actually may be coming out this afternoon or tomorrow in an MMWR so, I actually may hold off on some of that information until tomorrow, but I think that comment probably was informed by some of the information that we were able to provide from some of the studies of serology or the studies of patients' blood. And what that probably means is that the farther back you go in time, the more likely you are to have been exposed to H1N1 viruses back before 1957 and there's a possibility that having exposure to that virus many years ago may allow you to have some reaction to the new H1N1 that's now circulating and I believe that's where that comes from.

                                Tom Skinner: Next question, Laura?

                                Operator: Thank you, our next question comes from Helen Branswell, "The Canadian Press."

                                Helen Branswell: Hi, if I could ask a couple of questions. One's a follow-up to Daniel's. I'm sorry, has it been determined whether or not any antibody is protective?

                                Daniel Jernigan: That, of course, is the difficult issue. When we look at serology, what we're seeing is the effect that somebody's blood has on the introduction of a virus into a cell, into a tube, essentially, and that is not something that tells you about protection. The way that protection would be best evaluated, there are some more advanced kinds of studies that could be done, but general, we look at the effect on the population and, so, at this point, we just don't have any of that information but based on the serology, the tests that we are able to do now, there's evidence of reactivity, and we can infer from that to some degree that there is some level of protection, but we don't have a good answer to that right knew.

                                Tom Skinner: Do you have a follow-up, Helen?

                                Helen Branswell: Yes, if I could, please. When you were describing transmission rates and household transmission, et cetera, it just makes me wonder. I mean, are people -- is anybody starting to wonder whether or not this is more like a case of antigenic shift than antigenic drift?

                                Daniel Jernigan: I think, based on the availability of the studies we've looked at so far, a good proportion of the population has no immunity to it and, based on the distance, if you want to call it that, of this new H1N1 from the previously circulating seasonal H1N1, there's a very good distance. It's a long way away. And so while it may not be a different subtype, it is distant enough for us to be very concerned about its potential impact. And so, in that sense, the drift versus shift is an ongoing discussion, but I think the distance between it and its nearest cousins ask far enough that we're going to treat it in a way that we want to make sure that the most people are protected.

                                Tom Skinner: Next question, Lauren.

                                Operator: Our next question is from Todd Ackerman, "The Houston Chronicle."

                                Todd Ackerman: Yeah, could you give more of an update on the vaccine efforts, particularly in light of the report out of the W.H.O. meeting yesterday. The virus was taking longer to grow than they'd hoped and it seemed like it would be long -- it would be later than previously prohibited until they were able to start making the vaccine? I guess, ultimately I'm kind of curious, what's the likelihood we wouldn't have a vaccine in the U.S. until later in the season than you would like?

                                Daniel Jernigan: I think at this point, our best estimates are that we would have something for the fall. As you know, from a lot of these discussions, there are many steps that have to come into alignment perfectly and at this point, we're moving along and have not had significant delays here in the U.S. with the development of the vaccine candidates. We are very hopeful that we'll have those vaccine viruses ready to send by the end of may, which is something that we have been working on that timeline here for a while. The -- there are many other steps and I -- you know, echo W.H.O.'s concern about the potential for there to be delays, but at this point, for the part of developing the vaccine candidates, we are hopeful that we'll have them by the end of May.

                                Tom Skinner: Next question, please.

                                Operator: Thank you, our next question comes from Betsy McKay, "The Wall Street Journal."

                                Betsy McKay: Hi, thanks very much. I have one follow-up to the earlier comments about exposure to H1N1 before 1957. Is, just quickly, what is the significance of before 1957? Is that, you know, related to the pandemic, if you could explain that a little more? Secondly, I wanted to ask about to what extent are school-age children developing severe disease? And I think you gave some data about number, percentage of hospitalizations, but I may have missed it, so what I'm wondering is how many, you know, how many school-age children are developing severe enough disease to end up in the hospital?

                                Daniel Jernigan: With regard to your second question, when we look at the number of cases that have been hospitalized, and for which we have enough data, there are 164 that we've done some analysis on, the median age, that is the sort of middle age of those folks that are being hospitalized, is 19 years. And so, about 18% are 10 to 18 years old. About 11% are 5 to 9 years old, so if you add those two together, you get the amount of school-aged children that are being hospitalized. The largest number in terms of the percent of people being hospitalized is in the age range of 19 to 49 years old. That's 37%. But among those that are greater than or equal to 50 years, there's about 13%, and so, if we look at the overall numbers of cases, we're still seeing a significant number in the school-aged population. The majority in the 19- to 49-year-old population but an increasing amount of greater than or equal to 50-year-old age group. With the H1N1 pandemic in the past, as many of you know, the H1N1 appeared in 1918 and through circulation around the globe each season, has drifted away from the original virus that appeared and in 1957, that H1N1 was replaced by H2N2, with that pandemic at that point in 1957, so when we talk about the pre-'57 exposures, we're referring to those that had been exposed to the past H1N1 that went away in 1957.

                                Tom Skinner: Next question. Laura?

                                Operator: Thank you, our next question comes from Mike Stobbe, Associated Press.

                                Mike Stobbe: Hi, thanks for taking the call. Doctor, two questions, first, I've heard some theorizing that you need three to six hours to of exposure to an infected person to catch the Novel swine flu. Is that accurate? And I have a follow-up.

                                Daniel Jernigan: Okay, the reasons why someone becomes infected depend on many different factors. The time within a program really is going to be dependent on how vigorously somebody is coughing that has infection, how much they're sneezing, what kind of contact you have with that individual, so to put an hour amount on it I think makes it difficult because there are so many variations in that.

                                Mike Stobbe: Okay. Thanks, and the follow-up, following up on Dan and Helen's and Betsy's question, I just want to be clear, are you saying right now that CDC's found evidence that there's a certain level of immunity in people, what would it be, 50 and older? I don't want to get confused, because you were talking about rates going up in people 50 and older.

                                Daniel Jernigan: Again, rather than dwell on that, I'm going to ask folks to follow up with the MMWR that will be coming out because it may state it in a much more eloquent way than I am, but let me just refer you to that because it will get into much greater detail about how those interpretations were arrived at.

                                Tom Skinner: Next question please.

                                Operator: Our next question comes from Richard Knox, National Public Radio.

                                Richard Knox: Yes, hi. Thanks very much. Two things. First, I'm a little confused about the relationship between the lack of population immunity to this virus and the fact that the attack rate so far, both in households and communities or schools, don't seem to be different than the regular seasonal flu. Wouldn't you expect that lower or no immunity might lead to higher attack rates or am I getting something wrong? And I'll ask a follow-up, please.

                                Daniel Jernigan: Yeah, I think if you think of attack rates almost as the part of infection where it's going from one to another and the development of disease as being dependent on the host that receives that respiratory droplet, I think you can have a virus that has a high attack rate based on the fact that maybe it's replicating more frequently inside the nose of individuals that it causes people to sneeze more or whatever. There are those factors that lead to the attack rate versus once somebody has been exposed, their ability to mount a response and, so, I think both of those play in here in that we have an attack rate that appears to be what we would see with seasonal and once somebody is infected, there may be a greater likelihood to develop a December step.

                                Tom Skinner: What's your follow-up, Richard?

                                Richard Knox: Yes, thank you. I'm wondering why, if you have any information or hypotheses, that we would see so many more cases in Wisconsin and Illinois than in, you know, in California and New York, Arizona, and other places where you might expect it to be the hotspots? Is there some factor there?

                                Daniel Jernigan: That's right. I think what we're seeing now, because we're looking very closely, is probably what happens each year with influenza in certain parts of the country have disease before other parts. There may be certain factors or events where there are a number of people that are exposed, and so I believe what we're seeing now is a reflection of those factors and not necessarily a geographic or regional difference based on humidity or temperature or whatever.

                                Tom Skinner: Next question, Laura.

                                Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from David Brown "The Washington Post."

                                David Brown: Yes, thanks. I have two. Would your advice to a -- to families and to clinicians be that if someone is sick with, you know, flu-like symptoms but is not in some sort of, you know, respiratory distress, that they not go to the emergency room, that they not go to the hospital or are you all still interested in people presenting and being diagnosed, get a bigger sense of the, better sense of the size of the epidemic? And my second question is, do you have any theories on why it's not -- in places in Europe, you know, UK and Spain in particular, where, presumably, the population in terms of its -- about the same?

                                Tom Skinner: State your second question one more time.

                                David Brown: Yes, the -- in industrialized populations in the UK and in Spain, which are presumably fairly similar to the United States in terms of Jen, you know, population, health, if the virus is not spreading but it is spreading here, is there any theories on why that is?

                                Daniel Jernigan: With regard to your second question, it may just really be a dose phenomena that in the United States, the numbers of people that have traveled to Mexico and have traveled to Mexico at a time many months ago, perhaps, where we've had more time for there to be transmission in the United States and more opportunities where people were exposed and, therefore, were able to give disease. That's one thing. Another thing is that we do a lot of testing in the United States that other countries may not be doing similar type of testing. The -- in Europe and other places, it may be that the numbers of those that had traveled to Mexico and are able to, then, lead to transmission in Europe, that may be much lower. Your first question had to do with individuals with mild disease and whether or not they should be going to the doctor. At this point, we have recommended that if folks have symptoms, if they certainly do separate themselves from others by staying home. Parents should keep kids home so that they're not transmitting infection at work or at school. We've not had any recommendation that tries to have parents triage children to stay home or triage themselves to stay home based on a symptom complex, but are, instead, asking that folks, as they normally would, talk with their doctors and see about the need for coming into the clinic.

                                Tom Skinner: Next question, Laura?

                                Operator: Thank you, or next question comes from Caleb Hellerman, CNN.

                                Caleb Hellerman: Hi, thanks for taking the question. It has to do with the production of vaccines. I wanted to know just to clarify, you've not yet received any candidate vaccines to be tested and secondly, you mentioned testing taken to speed up the process or make it as fast as possible, you know, what, if anything, unusual are you doing in that regard?

                                Daniel Jernigan: At this point in terms of one of the steps that is of receiving and doing what's called safety testing, we are anticipating receiving some of the candidate vaccines very, very soon. And so, excuse me, candidate viruses very, very soon. And so, in that sense, thanks are moving forward. There are processes that can be done in parallel so that once information from one set of studies is done, the others are already in play or have completed and, therefore, the full picture does not need to go necessarily sequentially and we're able to get some of that information in parallel.

                                Tom Skinner: Next question, please.

                                Operator: Our next question comes from Donald McNeil, "The New York Times."

                                Donald McNeil: Hi, thanks. Can you give a little more detail about the serology test you started to describe there, something about something passing into a tube and --

                                Daniel Jernigan: Some of this will, again, be described in the MMWR tomorrow, but it's a test where we're able to take somebody's blood. The blood is spun down so that only the serum remains and then you can take that serum and test it to see if there are antibodies that are in the serum that responds to different viruses that are essentially challenged in the test. And so, it's a way of seeing whether or not somebody had been exposed to something similar in the past. Again, I think tomorrow's MMWR will be much more eloquent.

                                Tom Skinner: Next question, please.

                                Operator: Thank you, our next question comes from Bob Roos, CIDRAP News.

                                Bob Roos: Thank you for taking the question. In that report from the W.H.O. working group yesterday, they talked about a much higher estimate of possible H1N1 vaccine production. They were talking about 4.9 billion doses and there's reference to or allusion to advents and I just wondered if you had any insight of why they gave this much higher incidents from versions in the past as far as how many doses produced globally in a year.

                                Daniel Jernigan: I was not at those meetings so I cannot comment about the numbers that were generated from that.

                                Operator: Our next question comes from Jen Skerritt, "Winnepeg Free Press."

                                Jen Skerritt: I'm wondering if there's any concern that a vaccine may not protect against the virus if it mutates and whether there's any indication to date that the virus has mutated?

                                Daniel Jernigan: So far, with the viruses that have been evaluated, and I believe we have 500 or so that having sequenced, but of those we're not finding any significant divergence genetically. We will continue to monitor that. What you're referring to is whether we choose one of those viruses, make it into a vaccine, is there a likelihood that the virus that circulates through the summer and reappears, whether or not that virus might be different by the time we get the vaccine available. The answer is, that is a possibility. That's a possibility each year with influenza and, for that reason, we monitor the viruses very closely and we also monitor the effectiveness of the vaccine in people throughout the season as well and we are ramping up to be able to do both those things throughout this coming season. At this point, we don't have any viruses that would suggest that the vaccine candidates would have a mismatch.

                                Tom Skinner: Next question, please.

                                Operator: Thank you, our next question comes from Michael Horowitz, WNBC-TV.

                                Michael Horowitz: Thank you. Does the CDC have any policy or any, make any recommendation about schools being closed that have suspected swine flu patients? And, further, is in a policy or do they make any recommendation about schools have confirmed swine flu cases?

                                Daniel Jernigan: The best thing to do is go to the website, there's actually a document there that addresses a lot of these issues. And so, at this point, the thing is, if there are for administrative reasons the need to close, that certainly is a local decision and that the guidance currently is very permissive for there to be local decisionmaking and flexibility.

                                Tom Skinner: Laura, we'll take two more questions, please.

                                Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Michele Merrill, "Hospital Employee Health Newsletter." Please go ahead.

                                Michele Merrill: Thank you very much for taking my questions. I actually have two questions. The first relates to the issue of the vaccine. I'm wondering, typically, hospitals vaccinate their employees in their campaigns usually really in earnest in October and I'm wondering if you're going to be asking them to vaccinate early so they could vaccinate again if you had another vaccine for this H1N1. And my second question is, just to get an update on what you might know about health care workers who have confirmed or suspected cases and how those might have been transmitted.

                                Daniel Jernigan: Yeah, I think you raise a couple of very important questions. The first regarding when to vaccinate and at this point, when to vaccinate is going to be driven largely by when it's available. And so, there is a routine for production of vaccine and the preparation of it, the distribution of it, and then, of course, the campaigns that occur where those start often in October. If possible, we do want to try and have an earlier rollout of the seasonal influenza vaccine simply for that reason to make it easier for an additional vaccine, if that's the ultimate policy. And so, for that reason, we will be working very closely with manufacturers and with the multiple advisory committees through the federal government and with other partners to make sure that what is recommended in terms of timing is feasible and can be initiated to offer the most protection to the most folks. In terms of health care providers, we have presented that sum in the past. I don't actually have the exact numbers about how many have been infected. I think it's upwards of 100, but I'll have to actually look at that, but the main point is that what we're seeing is a problem with what many call administrative controls, whereby there are policies within facilities that allow people to or that recommend people to use canned hygiene and to stay home when they're sick, and what we're finding is that folks that are getting influenza at the workplace and health care facilities, many of them have been exposed to other workers who have come in sick, and so, this is something that is easily addressed through some of these types of activities that health care facility administration can promote and recommend and that is that if folks are sick, they should stay home, not only to protect patients, but also, to protect other health care workers from getting ill as well.

                                Tom Skinner: All right, we'll take one last set of questions. Please.

                                Operator: Our final question comes from Alyson Wykoff, AAP News.

                                Alyson Wykoff: Thank you. Can you comment on the effectiveness of the antivirals so far, especially in children, and if you've seen any potential problems or adverse events?

                                Daniel Jernigan: At this point, there are a number of individuals and different federal agencies that are using existing systems for monitoring adverse events due to antiviral drugs. We, at this point, do not have anything that leads us to believe that there's increased levels of adverse events. The numbers of young children that are getting treated, we're following that to some degree but we don't have those numbers now to say exactly what the antiviral effectiveness is for that population. In the past, for seasonal influenza, some of that information is there, but our systems for collecting that information just don't have the numbers at this point to make any age-specification of what's happening with their antiviral effectiveness.

                                Tom Skinner: Thanks, Laura, and thank you all for joining us. We'll keep you posted each day of our plans to have daily media briefings and continue to go to our website, www.cdc.Gov for the latest information as well. Thank you for joining us.

                                Operator: Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

                                End

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