Tweet
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/...-cdc-estimates
COVID vaccination saved more than 5,000 US lives in 7 months in 2023-24, CDC estimates
Mary Van Beusekom, MS
Today at 3:08 p.m.
COVID-19 COVID-19 vaccination averted more than 5,000 US in-hospital deaths, 13,000 intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and 68,000 hospitalizations in 7 months in 2023-2024, researchers from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated late last week in Vaccine, although with considerable uncertainty.
The investigators estimated COVID-related deaths, ICU admissions, and hospitalizations prevented by vaccination from October 1, 2023, to April 21, 2024, using a novel multiplier model that used causal inference, conditional probabilities of hospitalization, and correlations between data elements in simulations.
"The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) has used estimates of the potential benefits and risks to inform vaccine policy decisions, and burden averted estimates can be used to evaluate vaccine policy," the study authors wrote.
Averted COVID burden highest in older adults
An estimated median of 68,315 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 42,831 to 97,984) COVID-related hospitalizations, 13,108 (95% UI, 4,459 to 25,042) ICU admissions, and 5,301 (95% UI, 101 to 14,230) in-hospital deaths were prevented.
The averted COVID-linked burden was highest in adults aged 65 years and older (hospitalizations averted, 57,665 [95% UI, 35,442 to 84,006]; ICU admissions averted, 10,878 [95% UI, 3,104 to 21,591]; and 4,779 [95% UI, 0 to 13,132) in-hospital deaths averted.
These estimates highlight the ongoing disease burden the United States experiences from COVID-19 and the additional burden that is experienced beyond the typical respiratory virus season.
When the researchers expanded the analytic period to include September 24, 2023, to August 11, 2024, an estimated 107,197 COVID-associated hospitalizations (95% UI, 80,692 to 137,643), 18,292 ICU admissions (95% UI, 10,062 to 28,436), and 6,749 in-hospital deaths (95% UI, 2,077 to 13,557) were prevented.
The researchers noted that the expanded date range increased COVID-linked hospitalizations by 57%, ICU admissions by 40%, and in-hospital deaths by 27%: "These estimates highlight the ongoing disease burden the United States experiences from COVID-19 and the additional burden that is experienced beyond the typical respiratory virus season."
More vaccinations would further cut poor outcomes
Older adults had the highest averted burden "due to higher COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates in adults aged 65 years or older compared to other age groups; adults aged 65 years or older accounted for between 80% and 90% of the averted COVID-19- associated hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and in-hospital deaths," the researchers wrote.
More older adults obtaining COVID-19 vaccinations would further reduce COVID-19-associated outcomes. Increased 2023–2024 COVID-19 vaccination rates would reduce COVID-19-associated outcomes in other age groups as well.
They said older adults also have the greatest potential to reduce poor COVID-19 outcomes because the proportion of this age-group who received at least one 2023-2024 vaccine dose by May 5, 2024, was just under 41%, "suggesting more older adults obtaining COVID-19 vaccinations would further reduce COVID-19-associated outcomes. Increased 2023–2024 COVID-19 vaccination rates would reduce COVID-19-associated outcomes in other age groups as well."
The investigators noted that the hospitalizations averted by COVID-19 vaccinations from October 2023 through April 2024 were similar to those prevented by influenza vaccination in the 2022–2023 flu season. "However, since 2020, SARS-CoV-2 has circulated year-round with peaks in both winter and summer," they wrote.
"These results support the ACIP [CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices] recommendation for everyone 6 months and older to receive an updated COVID-19 vaccination and that updated vaccination is especially important for adults aged 65 years or older, given their increased risk of COVID-19-associated hospitalization, ICU admission and death compared to younger age groups," the authors concluded.
COVID vaccination saved more than 5,000 US lives in 7 months in 2023-24, CDC estimates
Mary Van Beusekom, MS
Today at 3:08 p.m.
COVID-19 COVID-19 vaccination averted more than 5,000 US in-hospital deaths, 13,000 intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and 68,000 hospitalizations in 7 months in 2023-2024, researchers from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated late last week in Vaccine, although with considerable uncertainty.
The investigators estimated COVID-related deaths, ICU admissions, and hospitalizations prevented by vaccination from October 1, 2023, to April 21, 2024, using a novel multiplier model that used causal inference, conditional probabilities of hospitalization, and correlations between data elements in simulations.
"The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) has used estimates of the potential benefits and risks to inform vaccine policy decisions, and burden averted estimates can be used to evaluate vaccine policy," the study authors wrote.
Averted COVID burden highest in older adults
An estimated median of 68,315 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 42,831 to 97,984) COVID-related hospitalizations, 13,108 (95% UI, 4,459 to 25,042) ICU admissions, and 5,301 (95% UI, 101 to 14,230) in-hospital deaths were prevented.
The averted COVID-linked burden was highest in adults aged 65 years and older (hospitalizations averted, 57,665 [95% UI, 35,442 to 84,006]; ICU admissions averted, 10,878 [95% UI, 3,104 to 21,591]; and 4,779 [95% UI, 0 to 13,132) in-hospital deaths averted.
These estimates highlight the ongoing disease burden the United States experiences from COVID-19 and the additional burden that is experienced beyond the typical respiratory virus season.
When the researchers expanded the analytic period to include September 24, 2023, to August 11, 2024, an estimated 107,197 COVID-associated hospitalizations (95% UI, 80,692 to 137,643), 18,292 ICU admissions (95% UI, 10,062 to 28,436), and 6,749 in-hospital deaths (95% UI, 2,077 to 13,557) were prevented.
The researchers noted that the expanded date range increased COVID-linked hospitalizations by 57%, ICU admissions by 40%, and in-hospital deaths by 27%: "These estimates highlight the ongoing disease burden the United States experiences from COVID-19 and the additional burden that is experienced beyond the typical respiratory virus season."
More vaccinations would further cut poor outcomes
Older adults had the highest averted burden "due to higher COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates in adults aged 65 years or older compared to other age groups; adults aged 65 years or older accounted for between 80% and 90% of the averted COVID-19- associated hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and in-hospital deaths," the researchers wrote.
More older adults obtaining COVID-19 vaccinations would further reduce COVID-19-associated outcomes. Increased 2023–2024 COVID-19 vaccination rates would reduce COVID-19-associated outcomes in other age groups as well.
They said older adults also have the greatest potential to reduce poor COVID-19 outcomes because the proportion of this age-group who received at least one 2023-2024 vaccine dose by May 5, 2024, was just under 41%, "suggesting more older adults obtaining COVID-19 vaccinations would further reduce COVID-19-associated outcomes. Increased 2023–2024 COVID-19 vaccination rates would reduce COVID-19-associated outcomes in other age groups as well."
The investigators noted that the hospitalizations averted by COVID-19 vaccinations from October 2023 through April 2024 were similar to those prevented by influenza vaccination in the 2022–2023 flu season. "However, since 2020, SARS-CoV-2 has circulated year-round with peaks in both winter and summer," they wrote.
"These results support the ACIP [CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices] recommendation for everyone 6 months and older to receive an updated COVID-19 vaccination and that updated vaccination is especially important for adults aged 65 years or older, given their increased risk of COVID-19-associated hospitalization, ICU admission and death compared to younger age groups," the authors concluded.