40 min. Palese interview

[gsgs]

http://media.rawvoice.com/pmn_twiv/www.twiv.tv/TWiVspecial.mp3

expects some protection from seasonal H1N1 (in contrast to CDC)
vaccine from 1976 too long ago, too different
1918 is even more different {not much IMO}
sequences from 3 different viruses triple-reassortant {not}
differences 2009-seasonalH1N1-1976 = triangle
1976 classical swine
1918 jumped from humans to pigs and populated in pigs since then

2009 H1 more similar to avian from 90s than to swine 1976 (Palese:correct , me:wrong}

increase in pigs could be the reason for H3N2 jumping to pigs

avian+Eurasian virus reassorted (12:10)
probably in a pig

surveillance of pigs (and other animals) increased now

can even reassort with B (to a certain extend)

2009H1N1 can transmit H2H , but lacks virolence
no PB1-F2 --> milder

no PB1-F2 in seasonal H1N1 , 20:00


someone resume the last half ?

-------------------------

no problem with pork
doesn't replicate in human intestine

not in blood,feces
Amantadine maybe used in Asia for pigs

P. thinks that resistance in seasonal H1N1 has nothing to do with Tamiflu-use

killed and life vaccines are being made

may well be that SF declines in N.hemisphere now and appears in S.H

not vaccinate now, but stockpile

doesn't think seasonal strains would die

maybe an area of 4 different flu-strains
probably the 3 regular ones will remain, 50% chance that SF will persist

50% not the next pandemic strain

next 1-2 weeks decide whether it dies out in the Northern H.

encourages students to enter virology intresting subject

[JJackson]

Re: 40 min. Palese interview

Well worth downloading thanks gsgs

[gsgs]

Re: 40 min. Palese interview

checking again...

at 38:10 he estimates a 50% chance that it will die out
and, as I understood, an ever bigger chance that it will
die soon in the Northern Hemisphere. (but probably go to the
Southern Hemisphere, where it may or may not die out -
50% in total)

[Mamabird]

Re: 40 min. Palese interview

checking again...

at 38:10 he estimates a 50% chance that it will die out
and, as I understood, an ever bigger chance that it will
die soon in the Northern Hemisphere. (but probably go to the
Southern Hemisphere, where it may or may not die out -
50% in total)

gs, I'm surprised that you have not said anything about his quote toward the end of the interview:

"...predictions are difficult to make, especially with respect to the future."

That is priceless. I'll have to remember that for future use. After all, this is not rocket surgery.

[gsgs]

Re: 40 min. Palese interview

this is an old quote from Yogi Bera, I first saw it here:

http://birdflueconomics.blogspot.com/2006/07/public-debt-and-government-bonds-in.html

[gsgs]

Re: 40 min. Palese interview

transcript available now:

http://www.twiv.tv/TWiV-Special-Palese-050609.pdf