Bird Flu Epidemic Outbreak Is Very Probable Currently, Specialists Consider

[Snowy Owl]

Bird Flu Epidemic Outbreak Is Very Probable Currently, Specialists Consider



BIRD FLU EPIDEMIC OUTBREAK IS VERY PROBABLE CURRENTLY, SPECIALISTS CONSIDER

Noyan Tapan
Nov 6, 2007

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 6, NOYAN TAPAN. A three-day symposium under the title
"Communication and Work with Media in Emergencies Posing Danger to
Population's Health, in Particular, during a Pandemia" started on
November 6 on the initiative of UNICEF and Japanese government. As
Sheldon Yett, a representative of UNICEF's Armenian office, said
in his speech, the symposium is held in a period when the world is
faced with the danger of bird flu and pandemic flu. He said that in
the whole world national governments exert much efforts to work out
national response plans in order to overcome that problem.

Representatives of the RA Ministries of Health, Agriculture,
Territorial Administration, Rescue Service take part in the
symposium. According to S. Yett, the symposium's main goal is to
provide necessary information and skills of strategies' elaboration
to government officials and spokespersons, "so that they will be able
to efficiently work with local and international media."

According to the data provided by Elizabeth Danielian, the Head of the
World Health Organization's Armenian Office, some epidemics of various
types of flu broke out in the 20th century, Spanish flu in 1918, Asian
flu in 1957, Hong Kong flu in 1968. "You see that the last pandemia
was recorded long ago, consequently, outbreak of a new epidemic,
that of bird flu, is very probable currently in the world. And we
should get ready to resist in just from today," E. Danielian said.</pre>

http://groong.usc.edu/news/msg209819.html

[Commonground]

Re: Bird Flu Epidemic Outbreak Is Very Probable Currently, Specialists Consider

She uses "epidemic" and "pandemic" interchangeably.

[tropical]

Re: Bird Flu Epidemic Outbreak Is Very Probable Currently, Specialists Consider

If the data at the symposium:

"According to the data provided by Elizabeth Danielian, ..."
produced by the Head of the WHO Armenian Office Elizabeth Danielian,

corroborate the text statement:

"... outbreak of a new epidemic, that of bird flu, is very probable currently in the world. And we should get ready to resist in just from today," E. Danielian said."


than that means we are already at stage 4

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Bird Flu Epidemic Outbreak Is Very Probable Currently, Specialists Consider

Hold on a minute. If the pandemic was already here we would be hearing about many deaths, and more significantly we would be seeing WHO experts converging on a location. I think we all need to be alert as all of the critical changes to the virus are already in place but, I don't think it has actually happened yet.

[Gert van der Hoek]

Re: Bird Flu Epidemic Outbreak Is Very Probable Currently, Specialists Consider

Translation bug?

[tropical]

Re: Bird Flu Epidemic Outbreak Is Very Probable Currently, Specialists Consider

Hold on a minute. If the pandemic was already here we would be hearing about many deaths, and more significantly we would be seeing WHO experts converging on a location. I think we all need to be alert as all of the critical changes to the virus are already in place but, I don't think it has actually happened yet.

We can't be sure what happens now. WHO can rise the number from 3 to 5 at the last moment, when the "thing" is obvious.
Why than such an statement from the armenian WHO?

I don't have any confidence that we will be informed till the illness be well on it's course.
Why than the WHO statement about the pandemic code remains firmly on 3 when we can by Internet collect these informations from which is visible that are numerous cases of "severe pneumonia" without adequately taken samples, and no sanctions for no official reports to WHO?

From another FT thread we can see that even WHO confirmed the cases, but not rise the awareness, why? Are we at the 2005. year stage - are the WHO the right to stay at stage 3 when now we have much more cases? The formulation 3 is: "not sustained, isolated clusters", till when - the last 2 weeks prior pandemic?

FT post:
"...There are probably at least a dozen WHO confirmed cases that died within a week of onset. The shortest time between onset and death (based on WHO data) is 2 days."

What kind of fulminant pneumonia cruise there?
The epidemic starting number: how much - 100 cases a week?

Maybe WHO must start to correct the warning table.

[tropical]

Re: Bird Flu Epidemic Outbreak Is Very Probable Currently, Specialists Consider

Dutchy, I like your stilization , but I must say that independent of translation bugs, now there are so much suspected "fast dying pneumonias" that is enough for a reasonable suspect of what is going on.



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<HR style="COLOR: #cccccc" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Translation bug?


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[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Bird Flu Epidemic Outbreak Is Very Probable Currently, Specialists Consider

Tropical you bring up some valid questions.

How much notice will we get?
I suspect not much.

Why would the Armenian WHO say what they did?
Well, I am very cautious with computer translations. We have had uncomfortable translations in the past that turned out to be false.

Why WHO has not raised the warning number is because they already stated they wouldn't do that even if the pandemic was happening.
Which, of course, makes the warning a worthless indicator. The reasons for not moving the level up are not because of the lack of evidence to support the rise but rather due to political and economic reasons. Countries that experienced several bf cases have taken huge financial hits. The countries said if the WHO pointed fingers again they would hide the number of victims from the public and the WHO.

The number of cases is suddenly rising.
It does seem that the latest flu season is ramping up faster and with more victims than ever before. This is to be expected. The virus is endemic in a lot more places than ever before. The virus is also easier to contract now because of the lowered temperature requirement in some strains.

Finally, how and where the pandemic strikes is going to be difficult to assess in the early days.
What we need to look for is unusual activity by the WHO. Sudden messages from heads of government that mention the flu. Whether they specifically pandemic or not. Hospital workers with no poultry at home who are dying of pneumonia or flu. (Which is why everyone is so interested in the Vietnam, South Korea posts and the latest Indonesia case.) 3M corporation and other purveyors of personal protective devices suddenly unable or unwilling to sell to the general public. There are other indicators that I am not an expert in, that will be posted here if and when we get deeply suspicious.

The bottom line is that we are probably very close to what the epidemiologists have said for years is a probability not a possibility of pandemic. Everything is in place for the virus to make the last small changes needed to easily infect humans. We are all watching.......and waiting.......and hopefully, preparing. Pandora, is about to lift the lid but, as of this moment, I don't think the beast is loose.

[Laidback Al]

Re: Bird Flu Epidemic Outbreak Is Very Probable Currently, Specialists Consider

We can't be sure what happens now. WHO can rise the number from 3 to 5 at the last moment, when the "thing" is obvious.
Why than such an statement from the armenian WHO?

I don't have any confidence that we will be informed till the illness be well on it's course.
Why than the WHO statement about the pandemic code remains firmly on 3 when we can by Internet collect these informations from which is visible that are numerous cases of "severe pneumonia" without adequately taken samples, and no sanctions for no official reports to WHO?

From another FT thread we can see that even WHO confirmed the cases, but not rise the awareness, why? Are we at the 2005. year stage - are the WHO the right to stay at stage 3 when now we have much more cases? The formulation 3 is: "not sustained, isolated clusters", till when - the last 2 weeks prior pandemic?

FT post:
"...There are probably at least a dozen WHO confirmed cases that died within a week of onset. The shortest time between onset and death (based on WHO data) is 2 days."

What kind of fulminant pneumonia cruise there?
The epidemic starting number: how much - 100 cases a week?

Maybe WHO must start to correct the warning table.

tropical, I think that Shannon is correct. If there were mass infections and casualties from a suspicious bug any where in the world, members here at this forum and other forums would be tracking that news immediately.

Many times we have discussed the WHO pandemic alerts and phases. What constitutes a "cluster"? What constitutes "sustained transmission"?
WHO will raise the levels based on their own internal analysis on their own schedule.

People should rationally review the evidence for and against a potential pandemic and develop their own plans for preparing. People should take responsibility for their own decisions and not wait for a signal from WHO.

I was the one that posted the statement

FT post:
"...There are probably at least a dozen WHO confirmed cases that died within a week of onset. The shortest time between onset and death (based on WHO data) is 2 days."

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...7&postcount=52

Based on WHO data, two days is the shortest period from onset to death for a confirmed case. You have to ask though, how accurate is this information? How well do grief stricken parents who just saw their son die remember when their child first exhibited a slight fever or cough; it could have been days earlier.

Although that child seems to have died with 48 hours of onset, the median number of days between onset and death is about 9 days for WHO confirmed cases. At the other end of the chart is a 7 year old boy from Suphanburi in Thailand who had symptom onset on January 3, 2004, and died 30 days later on 3 of February 2004.

It is simply not the situation that individuals infected with H5N1 are dying "quicker" now in 2007 then infected indviduals in the past.

[hawkeye]

Re: Bird Flu Epidemic Outbreak Is Very Probable Currently, Specialists Consider

agreed, as long as it is getting reported.

tropical, I think that Shannon is correct. If there were mass infections and casualties from a suspicious bug any where in the world, members here at this forum and other forums would be tracking that news immediately.

[hawkeye]

Re: Bird Flu Epidemic Outbreak Is Very Probable Currently, Specialists Consider

Case and Point:

A single blood test resulting in dengue being used to determine the cause of death for the others:


Moreh mystery disease detected to be dengue, Blood tested at Mumbai lab found positive

A Lalit

MOREH, Nov 6: The mystery disease that has caused several deaths in the Moreh area in the past few weeks has been confirmed to be dengue fever. Blood samples from a patient which were tested at a Mumbai laboratory have been found positive for dengue, health authorities here said.

The CMO, Moreh hospital, has dispatched an SOS to the state health department in this connection, seeking urgent assistance for bringing the disease under control. Moreh-based civil society organisations have also taken the initiative to alert the public and spread awareness of preventive measures.

It may be mentioned, over the past several weeks, since the last part of September, several dozen people living in Moreh and its vicinity had fallen ill due to the unknown disease, which had characteristics of viral fever. A high percentage, well over a dozen, had also died of the illness, but till date doctors, including experts from the district headquarters were unable to determine its exact nature.

According to health authorities here, blood samples of an 8-year old patient hailing from Moreh Khunou, who is currently being treated at RIMS, Imphal were sent to SRL Ranbaxy Ltd, Mumbai for testing. From the test results, the mystery disease has been determined to be dengue fever.

Dengue is spread by mosquitos, and is characterised by fever, rashes and head and joint aches.

As soon as the report of the blood tests was received, chief medical officer, Moreh hospital, Dr Y Mani, dispatched an alert to the director, health services, urging for urgent assistance in bringing the epidemic under control.

In addition, after learning of the test results, volunteers of the AMSU, Chandel district committee, and Meitei Council Moreh went around Moreh with loudspeakers, alerting the public and advising them of measures to prevent spread of the disease.

MCM assistant secretary, L Brojendro, drew the urgent attention of the state government to the need to take immediate measures to control the dengue epidemic, urging that an expert team should be immediately dispatched to the town to take the necessary steps. He also advocated taking up DDT spraying and fogging on a large-scale in the Moreh area.

AMSU, Chandel district council vice president S Santosh Meetei observed that due to lack of specialist doctors and proper equipment at the Moreh hospital, many lives have been unnecessarily lost to various illnesses.

He said if the government does not dispatch an expert team within three days, and post specialist doctors at the Moreh hospital, and also conduct a mass medical camp to protect the public, the AMSU will launch a stern agitation.

[tropical]

Re: Bird Flu Epidemic Outbreak Is Very Probable Currently, Specialists Consider

I agreed with you all, also.
Thank you Shannon, Dutchy, Laidback Al, and hawkeye.

That is a value of Internet, have a news, or a news correction in a real time period.
But obviously I am only suggest my suspicious with what is going on, not an evidence of a fact, and the WHO statement (from a Shannon post) now give me a good reason, also:
"Why WHO has not raised the warning number is because they already stated they wouldn't do that even if the pandemic was happening." - that is a big reason why we have a right to be suspicious.

Also, I had clearly stated that:
If the data at the symposium: ...
produced by the Head of the WHO Armenian Office
corroborate the text statement:
"... outbreak of a new epidemic, that of bird flu, is very probable currently ..."
than ...


In the upper statement obviously the veridicity of the "if ... data ... corroborate ... the statement ..." must be proved first, before we can think that the statement "currently" is true!
The veridicity can be proved only by an official statement from WHO, or somebody with the real data from the meeting.

If some unproved infos from the "internet birds" that state that:
"... she thinks the epidemic is "very probable just because the period from the last one is long"
(she = the Head of the WHO Armenian Office Elizabeth Danielian)
are true, and that is a reason for the upper statement, than there are NO outbreak of a new epidemic currently!

I am glad that we can rely on FT to get proved awareness news from the field at the very begining of something real starting, but I hope also that will be no web reprisals of the last year (december 2006.) web awareness news starting because of the embassy suggested few weeks needed prep. recommendations (reprised genericaly widely), when during a year after nothing happens.

Few month after that, this phantomatic awareness was by people quoted rubish, and gave more arguments to the wast med./off. platea to stated it scaremongering.

[tropical]

Re: Bird Flu Epidemic Outbreak Is Very Probable Currently, Specialists Consider

... Few month after that, this phantomatic awareness was by people quoted rubish, and gave more arguments to the wast med./off. platea to stated it scaremongering.

We can see an example of this kind of thinking in an article of "The News&Observer" published on:

http://www.newsobserver.com/105/story/768430.html

and presented on "FluWiki" yesterday:
• North Carolina: Must we be very afraid

________

The analyze of some statements:

"... After conjuring this dire scenario, the public service announcement offered some pretty tame advice: Cover your mouth when you cough and your nose when you sneeze, wash your hands often. Stay home when you're sick. The most apocalyptic suggestion was that you "stock your pantry with food that has a long shelf life and does not need to be cooked.""

Here is interesting to see how a "very little" sign of awareness transmited through an usual masses-media vector (radio) seems to the "Staff Writer" like an apocalyptic suggestion, when it is an quite normal suggestion, but if the "writer" are not used to read various scientific publications, it is not.

""It's marketing," explained Debbie Crane, public affairs director for the state Department of Health and Human Services. "You've got to grab people's attention.""

And it's ok, because in our ultra-mediatic world, it must be cutted off a little bit of attention.

"Translation: People accept the seasonal flu as a fact of life, and to persuade them to protect themselves against it, you have to frighten them with images of pandemic pandemonium. "

This is an obviously missinterpretation of facts, because the shots for protection of the seasonal flu have not any connection with the protection from the pandemic flu.

"The campaign may seem high pitched, but it reflects a basic fact of life: If you're aiming for America's ear, forget the head and shoot straight for the gut. If you want to cut through the mass media cacophony, let cataclysm be your carnival barker.
The airwaves are full of blow-dried Chicken Littles."

It's a classical "it's rubbish" atitude, mixed with an incompetence to separate the "chicken" illness from an possible novel "human" pandemic.

"Cable news channels beam constant reports of "extreme weather," school lockdowns and highway car chases. Genuine challenges turn into visions of Armageddon: "Terrorist plots! Terminator infections! Nuclear threats!"
The message: "Be afraid. Be very afraid!""

Well, if "you are not born yesterday" those are real possibilities, if you look at the math. theory of possibilities.
Seems that "the writer" lives in another world where these things cannot happen (maybe an paralel one?)

"Catastrophe, however, is like a drug. The more you get, the more you need. News outlets and political leaders must relentlessly ramp up their warnings to grab our attention."

After many years of no leader warnings, finaly some situational news was backed up by the leaders, and than stamped "rubish" without facts by him.

"... age-old questions about whether it is proper to twist facts in the name of a higher truth."

The twisted facts was the previous non-mention of the problem.

"... leaders have used doomsday images to get people to change their ways."

Is it beter to leave "the sheeps" to their destiny without try to change the path?

"... fear mongering is increasingly alarming in the modern world. Before the 20th century, most Americans lived in rural areas. Their lives were defined by things they could see, hear and touch -- the land and their neighbors.
Technological breakthroughs -- from radio and television to the Internet and cheap air travel -- greatly expanded our world. The global is now local, as far-flung issues shape our lives.
Of course, we are still rooted in our little postage stamps of native soil. So much of the information we receive about this wider world comes secondhand from news organizations and political leaders who know that bad news sells."

"The standard mass-media news (TV, radio, newspaper) sell very little about a pandemic, because they produced little news till today - the mass-news are only from the internet, without payment. The political leaders like more good news."

"The result is a widening gap between how Americans view something they have firsthand knowledge of -- their own lives -- and the wider world described to them by others.
Barraged with incessant reports of catastrophe, planetary meltdowns, rampant crime and raging pandemics, Americans see trouble.
These dismal images certainly grab our attention. But by distorting reality, the fear mongers make it harder for us to understand and respond to the very real problems they're squawking about."

We saw clearly that when "the reader", or "the writer" hadn't read enaugh scientific literature about the thema, they tend to clasified it like:
"distortion of reality", and "fear-mongers".
The writer seems to be not aware that he must added to the actual very real problems, another one - infectious diseases - are they XTB, flu, MRSA, or others.
The obviously changing weather (look at the recent storms) worsen that.

"That's nothing to sneeze at."

I hope that a pandemic of any sort never happen, but if it does, will be a good policy to "the writer" to be very careful that then no one sneeze at him... (read on "The mask of the red death", E.A.P.)

________

The whole story:



J. Peder Zane:
Must we be very afraid


<!-- /components/story/story_default.comp -->By J. Peder Zane, Staff Writer

The sun is shining and the birds are winging as my Mazda purrs down Capital Boulevard. Suddenly, the candy-colored music on the radio stops. An ominous voice intones:
"In 1918, thousands of North Carolinians died as pandemic flu swept the world. There is no pandemic flu today, but experts say it is just a matter of time. That's why the North Carolina Division of Public Health is working to help you and your family prepare."
Talk about your mood breaker.
In the history of health catastrophes, the 1918-19 Spanish flu pandemic ranks right up there with the Black Death. This virulent bug killed 40 million to 100 million people, dwarfing the death toll from World War I.
Imagine how the dinosaurs felt when that asteroid crashed to Earth -- kaboom! That's your mind-set when pandemic flu strikes. And it is just a matter of time.
After conjuring this dire scenario, the public service announcement offered some pretty tame advice: Cover your mouth when you cough and your nose when you sneeze, wash your hands often. Stay home when you're sick. The most apocalyptic suggestion was that you "stock your pantry with food that has a long shelf life and does not need to be cooked." (Beans again!)
The spot seemed more than a tad alarmist, an attempt to scare up interest in familiar tips as cold and flu season approaches. Yes, scientists believe that pandemic flu will strike again, but its severity and timing (one, 10, 25 years or more?) are uncertain.
More to the point, seasonal flu is scary enough. About 36,000 Americans will die from it this year. So why the end-of-times radio spot?
"It's marketing," explained Debbie Crane, public affairs director for the state Department of Health and Human Services. "You've got to grab people's attention."
Translation: People accept the seasonal flu as a fact of life, and to persuade them to protect themselves against it, you have to frighten them with images of pandemic pandemonium.
The campaign may seem high pitched, but it reflects a basic fact of life: If you're aiming for America's ear, forget the head and shoot straight for the gut. If you want to cut through the mass media cacophony, let cataclysm be your carnival barker.
The airwaves are full of blow-dried Chicken Littles.
Cable news channels beam constant reports of "extreme weather," school lockdowns and highway car chases. Genuine challenges turn into visions of Armageddon: "Terrorist plots! Terminator infections! Nuclear threats!"
The message: "Be afraid. Be very afraid!"
Catastrophe, however, is like a drug. The more you get, the more you need. News outlets and political leaders must relentlessly ramp up their warnings to grab our attention.
Consider the Nobel Peace Prize shared last month by Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The New York Times, in a story headlined "2 Winners, and 2 Approaches to Spreading the Word on Climate," contrasted the IPCC's measured voice of peer-reviewed research with Gore's "brimstone-laden warnings of an unfolding 'planetary emergency.'" The article quoted scientists who were "queasy" about Gore's more alarmist claims, but they also applauded him for focusing public attention on a crucial issue.
Gore's approach raises age-old questions about whether it is proper to twist facts in the name of a higher truth. It is also part of an American tradition -- stretching back at least to the Puritan preacher Cotton Mather -- whereby leaders have used doomsday images to get people to change their ways.
Because the fear factor is not new, we shouldn't pine for a nonexistent golden age when people looked at life head-on. Its long pedigree, however, shouldn't make us accept it with a shrug.
The idea of progress means we can conquer even the most entrenched practices -- run into many slaves lately?
At the risk of sounding alarmist, fear mongering is increasingly alarming in the modern world. Before the 20th century, most Americans lived in rural areas. Their lives were defined by things they could see, hear and touch -- the land and their neighbors.
Technological breakthroughs -- from radio and television to the Internet and cheap air travel -- greatly expanded our world. The global is now local, as far-flung issues shape our lives.
Of course, we are still rooted in our little postage stamps of native soil. So much of the information we receive about this wider world comes secondhand from news organizations and political leaders who know that bad news sells.
The result is a widening gap between how Americans view something they have firsthand knowledge of -- their own lives -- and the wider world described to them by others.
According to recent polls, the vast majority of Americans are satisfied with their jobs (86 percent), content with their family income (76 percent) and convinced that their lot will improve in the next five years (62 percent).
This optimism ends at their front door. The Pew Research Center found that 68 percent of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track and 60 percent think the next generation will be worse off. Bottom line, according to Pew: While 65 percent of Americans are satisfied with their own lives, only 25 percent are happy with the state of the nation.
Of course, personal circumstances don't necessarily mirror the nation's condition. But the links are strong enough that this divergence has at least as much to do with perception as it does with reality.
Barraged with incessant reports of catastrophe, planetary meltdowns, rampant crime and raging pandemics, Americans see trouble.
These dismal images certainly grab our attention. But by distorting reality, the fear mongers make it harder for us to understand and respond to the very real problems they're squawking about.
That's nothing to sneeze at.

peder.zane@newsobserver.com or (919) 829-4773