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Is the Swine Flu Back and Wreaking Havoc?

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  • Is the Swine Flu Back and Wreaking Havoc?

    Jason Tetro

    Microbiology, Health & Hygiene Expert




    ...


    The laboratory data has since confirmed what officials have feared: swine flu is back and responsible for over 70 per cent of the cases seen to date. But even as this mystery is resolved, another more sinister one is upon us. It comes as a result of the severity of the disease in those with the strongest immune systems. To date, over 75 per cent of people admitted to the intensive care unit are between the ages of 20 and 64. There is every indication that this form of H1N1pdm is not the same one seen by most in 2009-10. Instead, this might be an evil cousin or, as flu researchers call it, a virulent quasispecies.

    The concept of a quasispecies is well known in the microbiological world although rarely discussed in the public realm. It is similar to a faction of a particular species that has somehow evolved and adapted to improve its ability to survive and thrive. The actual mechanisms are quite complex and only a few have mastered the understanding of these rogue strains. However, when one comes about, it can leave even the most confident researcher scratching his or her head wondering what has happened.

    ..

    But now, it seems that this quasispecies, as well as two others known as Q226R and L194I may have made their way to the United States.


    Over the last few weeks, as expected, there has been a transition in the media headlines from the antics of Ford to the augury of flu. There was more than enough reason to believe that the virus that caused the pandemic from 2009-2010, better known as H1N1pdm or "swine flu" was back.

  • #2
    Re: Is the Swine Flu Back and Wreaking Havoc?

    It would be more interesting to calculate the attack rate: if it remains at seasonal flu level and not at pandemic level the situation may not be as ominous as suggested above.

    The H1pdm09 has never disappeared and became a human pathogen since 2009. We will have much more longer to suffer for its presence among us, until a novel subtype will displace it. gm

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Is the Swine Flu Back and Wreaking Havoc?

      pH1N1 Child Vaccine Escape
      CDC Early 2013


      <div style="text-align: center;">
      <hr style="width: 30%;" />41 Cases over 43 Sequences<hr style="width: 30%;" /></div>
      Introduction

      In the 30 days covering 2013-02-28 to 2013-03-29, the&nbsp;<span style="color: #783f04;"><b>United States CDC</b></span>&nbsp;released a total of 43&nbsp;<b><span style="color: #632423; font-family: &quot;Trebuchet MS&quot;;">pH1N1</span></b>&nbsp;sequences at&nbsp;<strong>GISAID&nbsp;</strong>on 41 human cases<strong>&nbsp;</strong>sampled from October 2012 to February 2013. Geographic surveillance includes&nbsp;<b>America,</b>&nbsp;<b>Africa, Asia </b>and<b> Russia.&nbsp;</b>Although&nbsp;<b><span style="color: #632423; font-family: &quot;Trebuchet MS&quot;;">pH1N1</span></b>&nbsp;in most locales during the&nbsp;2012-2013 season was the <b><span style="color: #783f04;">minority</span></b> serotype, the sequences in this Analytic Report describe a high level of human-infective diversity and an ease of avian genetic acquisition, including multiple instances demonstrating concentrated transport of <b><span style="color: #660000;">High-CFR</span></b>&nbsp;<b><span style="color: #632423; font-family: &quot;Trebuchet MS&quot;;">pH1N1&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #783f04;">Upsilon</span></b> polymorphisms onto single sequences.

      . . .

      Read the Open-Access, Full-Text
      Investigational Analytic
      including Genetic Details

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Is the Swine Flu Back and Wreaking Havoc?

        pH1N1 Drug Resistant Low Reactor
        CDC Fall 2013


        <div style="text-align: center;">
        <hr style="width: 30%;" />46 Cases over 49 Sequences<hr style="width: 30%;" /></div>
        Introduction

        In the 32 days covering 2013-10-17 to 2013-11-19, the&nbsp;<span style="color: #783f04;"><b>United States CDC</b></span>&nbsp;released a total of 49&nbsp;<b><span style="color: #632423; font-family: &quot;Trebuchet MS&quot;;">pH1N1</span></b>&nbsp;sequences at&nbsp;<strong>GISAID&nbsp;</strong>on 46 human cases<strong>&nbsp;</strong>sampled from February 2013 to October 2013. Geographic surveillance includes&nbsp;<b>America,</b>&nbsp;<b>Africa, Asia, Brazil, Ecuador, Paraguay&nbsp;</b>and<b>&nbsp;Peru.&nbsp;</b>

        The sequences in this Analytic Report describe a high level of genetic activity at the <b><span style="color: #274e13;">Hemagglutinin</span></b> <b><span style="color: #660000;">antigenic area</span></b> between <b><span style="color: blue;">aa155</span></b> and <b><span style="color: blue;">aa158</span></b> with <b>5</b> amino variations and <b>4</b> silent revisions. &nbsp; <b><span style="color: #274e13;">HA</span></b> <b><span style="color: blue;">225G</span></b> is present in <b><span style="color: #660000;">quasi-species</span></b> on <b>2</b>&nbsp;American samples and as dominant form in <b>2</b> tropical countries. The <b>Dominican Republic</b> <b><span style="color: #274e13;">HA</span></b> <b><span style="color: blue;">225G</span></b>&nbsp;<b><span style="color: #660000;">Low Reactor</span></b> appears on a <b><span style="color: #7f6000;">TamiFlu Resistant</span></b> strain. &nbsp;<b><span style="color: #7f6000;">Drug Resistance</span></b> is also found in <b>2</b> US sequences and <b>1</b> South American case.
        . . .

        Read the Open-Access, Full-Text
        Investigational Analytic
        including Genetic Details

        Comment

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