NERC: Long-Term Reliability Assessment (Jan 2026) - NERC issues Level 3 Alert (May 2026)

[Michael Coston]

NERC: Long-Term Reliability Assessment (Jan 2026)




#19,045
NERC, or the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, was tasked with"ensuring the reliability of the North American bulk power system" in 2006 following the 2003 Northeast blackout which affected more than 50 million people in the United States and Ontario, Canada.

Over the years we've looked at a number of their summer and winter reliability reports (see The NERC 2025-2026 Winter (Electrical Grid) Reliability Assessment) and their drills and exercises (see GridEx 2013 Preparedness Drill), amid growing governmental concerns over the reliability of the electrical grid (see NIAC: Surviving A Catastrophic Power Outage).

Previously, the biggest threats to the grid were thought to be natural disasters (hurricanes, ice storms, severe space weather, etc.), `bad actors' (cyber-threats, sabotage, etc.), or aging infrastructure (see ASCE report card on America’s infrastructure).

But the recent and rapidly increasing power demands from A.I. data centers have added yet another potential failure point.

Last summer's the U.S. Department of Energy published a 73-page report that warned that if current schedules for retirement of reliable power generation (especially baseload) continue, without enough firm replacement, the risk of blackouts in 2030 could increase by 100× over current levels.

Number one on their Key Takeaways is:

Status Quo is Unsustainable. The status quo of more generation retirements and less dependable replacement generation is neither consistent with winning the AI race and ensuring affordable energy for all Americans, nor with continued grid reliability (ensuring “resource adequacy”).

Absent intervention, it is impossible for the nation’s bulk power system to meet the AI growth requirements while maintaining a reliable power grid and keeping energy costs low for our citizens.

To this growing chorus we can add a 181-page NERC Long-Term Reliability Report - published in January - which also warns that our power grid is facing a growing risk of electrical shortfalls over the next decade.

For those wanting a brief summary, NERC has published the following press release (see Resource Adequacy Risks Intensify Across North America as Demand Growth Surges).

January 29, 2026

WASHINGTON, D.C. – NERC’s 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) and infographic spotlight intensifying resource adequacy risks throughout the North American bulk power system (BPS) over the next 10 years. Summer peak demand is forecast to grow by 224 GW, a more than 69% increase over the 2024 LTRA forecast with new data centers for artificial intelligence and the digital economy accounting for most of the projected increase.

Winter demand growth continues to outpace summer demand growth with 246 GW of growth forecast over the next 10 years, reflecting the evolution of electricity usage. Uncertainty and lag in the pace of new resource additions are driving heightened concerns that industry will not be able to keep up with rapidly increasing demand.

(Continue . . . )


Some brief excerpts from the executive summary include:

Executive Summary

The overall resource adequacy outlook for the North American BPS is worsening: In the 2025 LTRA, NERC finds that 13 of 23 assessment areas face resource adequacy challenges over the next 10 years. Projections for resource and transmission growth lag what is needed to support new data centers and other large loads that drive escalating demand forecasts.

Most new resources in development to come on-line in the next five years consist of battery storage and solar photovoltaic (PV), which are inverter-based and weather-dependent resources that increase the complexity of planning and operating a reliable grid. Meanwhile, more fossil-fired generator retirements loom in the next five years, reducing the amount of generation that has fuel on site and impacting the system’s ability to respond to spikes in demand.

The continuing shift in the resource mix toward weather-dependent resources and less fuel diversity increases risks of supply shortfalls during winter months. As Resource Planners, market operators, and regulators grapple with steep increases in demand and swelling resource queues, they face more uncertainty, adding to the already-complex endeavor of planning for resource adequacy during this period of rapid grid transformation.

To ensure there are sufficient resources for supplying electricity in the future and to reliably meet the growing electricity needs for North Americans, industry, regulators, and policymakers need to be vigilant for shifting projections, keep plans for deactivating existing generators flexible, expedite system development, and perform robust adequacy assessments of future scenarios. In addition, careful planning and broad cross-sector coordination will be needed to navigate a period of potentially strained electricity resources.

The findings presented here are vitally important to understanding the reliability risks to the North American BPS as it is currently planned and being influenced by government policies, regulations, consumer preferences, and economic factors. Summaries of the report sections are provided below.

(Continue . . )


While the tone of this report is cautiously optimistic that the risks going forward are manageable; it stresses that `broad cross-sector coordination will be needed to navigate a period of potentially strained electricity resources.'

The same sort of broad cooperation that is often called for - but is rarely seen - for mitigating climate change or preventing the next pandemic.

Hopefully, this time the stakes will be deemed high enough that our collective response will be different.

But I'm not planning on selling my solar panels anytime soon.

https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2026/02/nerc-long-term-reliability-assessment.html

[Michael Coston]

NERC Issues Level 3 Alert As Grid Faces `Unprecedented Challenges' Due to Surge In Large Power Consumers




#19,158

Twenty years ago (2006) NERC, or the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, was tasked with "ensuring the reliability of the North American bulk power system" following the 2003 Northeast blackout which affected more than 50 million people in the United States and Ontario, Canada.

Over the past dozen years we've looked at a number of their reliability assessments (see here, here, and here) amid growing governmental concerns over the reliability of the electrical grid (see NIAC: Surviving A Catastrophic Power Outage).

Until relatively recently, the biggest threats to the grid were thought to be natural disasters (hurricanes, ice storms, severe space weather, etc.), `bad actors' (cyber-threats, sabotage, etc.), or aging infrastructure (see ASCE report card on America’s infrastructure).

But over the past couple of years the rapidly increasing power demands from A.I. data centers, bitcoin harvesting, and cloud computing have added yet another potential failure point.

Last summer the U.S. Department of Energy published a 73-page report that warned that if current schedules for retirement of reliable power generation (especially baseload) continue, without enough firm replacement, the risk of blackouts in 2030 could increase by 100× over current levels.

Four months ago, in NERC: Long-Term Reliability Assessment (Jan 2026), we looked at a 181-page NERC Long-Term Reliability Report which similarly warned that our power grid is facing a growing risk of electrical shortfalls over the next decade.

From their press release:

January 29, 2026

WASHINGTON, D.C. – NERC’s 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) and infographic spotlight intensifying resource adequacy risks throughout the North American bulk power system (BPS) over the next 10 years. Summer peak demand is forecast to grow by 224 GW, a more than 69% increase over the 2024 LTRA forecast with new data centers for artificial intelligence and the digital economy accounting for most of the projected increase.

Winter demand growth continues to outpace summer demand growth with 246 GW of growth forecast over the next 10 years, reflecting the evolution of electricity usage. Uncertainty and lag in the pace of new resource additions are driving heightened concerns that industry will not be able to keep up with rapidly increasing demand.

Up until recently, the biggest concern has been limited generating capacity along with increasing demand, but last September NERC issued a Level 2 Alert which warned of a new threat; that the power draw from these massive computing centers can be erratic, with sudden drop offs and surges, that can destabilize the grid.

They wrote:

NERC, Regional Entities, and NERC registered entities have analyzed a series of disturbances that occurred on the bulk power system (BPS) resulting in widespread and unexpected customer-initiated load reduction of large loads. These disturbances involved multiple events during which 1,000+ MW of unexpected Large Loads output reduction occurred, with most events occurring in 2024 or 2025. The increase of Large Loads-related events coincides with an increase in Large Load penetration across the BPS.

Since then, it has become apparent that:

• the risks are increasing faster than expected,
• real-world events are already occurring,
• and industry response to the earlier alert has been insufficient

All of which forced NERC to raise the ante last week.

NERC Issues Level 3 Alert, Reliability Guideline Focused on Large Load Challenges
May 04, 2026

WASHINGTON, D.C. – As the grid faces unprecedented challenges from a surge in large power consumers, NERC is taking significant steps to ensure the reliability of the bulk power system (BPS). NERC released a Level 3 Essential Action Alert, Computational Load Modeling, Studies, Instrumentation, Commissioning, Operations, Protection, and Control,outlining seven actions registered entities must implement to address immediate risks posed by computational loads interfacing with the BPS.

The Level 3 Alert was issued as NERC observed customer-initiated large load reductions and significant oscillations that occur in seconds, leaving little or no room for real-time responses, threatening BPS reliability. The deadline for registered entities to submit their responses is August 3, 2026.

In another move to address emerging large loads, NERC released new voluntary guidelines to safeguard grid reliability. The Reliability Guideline: Risk Mitigation for Emerging Large Loads, recommends actions for traditional utilities and grid operators, and the companies behind these large loads including equipment manufacturers. The goal is to ensure that as more industrial-scale consumers connect to the grid, they actively participate in practices that protect grid stability. These steps highlight that proactive planning and participation can enable even more of these facilities to come online reliably and quickly. The guideline also acts as a reliability bridge while NERC updates its formal Reliability Standards to address these new challenges.

Registered entities subject to the Level 3 Alert are encouraged to act now by reading the alert and submitting responses by the August deadline. And, although non-binding, NERC strongly urges all relevant entities, from transmission operators to equipment makers, to adopt the recommended risk mitigation strategies outlined in the Reliability Guideline.

Those interested in reading the full 15-page document can find it at:



Although the risk mitigation strategies mentioned above are currently non-binding, it seems likely this is a prelude to a major policy shift, as they call them `. . . a reliability bridge while NERC updates its formal Reliability Standards to address these new challenges.'

While it remains to be seen how much of an impact these massive data centers will have on day-to-day delivery of electricity to the nation, it seems likely that utility costs will continue to increase, and that localized brownouts/blackouts will become more common.

With hurricane season approaching, those interested in small solar power options to soften the impact of power outages may wish to revisit the following blogs.

The Gift of Preparedness - Winter 2023 Edition

#NatlPrep: Prolonged Grid Down Preparedness

How Not To Swelter In Place

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https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2026/...rid-faces.html